OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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30 November - 04 Desember 2015
JCI
88.50
4,561.33 Previous Highest Vol (bn) Nett Foreign 1W Return YTD Indices Americas Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq EIDO EMEA Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei Shanghai TWSE SET KOSPI PCOMP KLSE ST - Times Sensex Hangseng Sektoral AGRICULTURE MINING MISC INDUSTRY BASIC INDUSTRY CONSUMER GOODS PROPERTY INFRASTRUKTUR FINANCE MANUFAKTURE TRADE LQ 45 SRI-KEHATI Currency IDR / USD IDR / AUD IDR / EUR IDR / SGD IDR / JPY IDR / GBP
4,442.18 4,597.05 24.52 315.40 (12.41)
1.98%
Lowest Val IDR bn Mkt Cap IDR tr NetForgYTDRbn Month to date (%)
4,541.06 22,553.15 4,811.91 (18,941.46) 2.76
Last
WoW%
YTD%
United States United States United States United States
17,798.49 2,090.11 5,127.52 20.74
0.37 0.43 1.06 (1.05)
(0.14) 1.52 8.27 (24.42)
Euro Area United Kingdom France Germany
3,488.99 6,375.15 4,930.14 11,293.76
1.06 0.64 0.39 1.56
10.89 (2.91) 15.39 15.18
Japanese China Taiwan Thailand Korea Philippine Malaysia Singapore India Hong Kong
19,883.94 3,436.30 8,398.40 1,363.13 2,028.99 6,927.07 1,682.59 2,859.12 26,128.20 22,068.32
0.12 (5.35) (0.79) (2.20) 1.97 (0.08) 1.25 (2.01) 1.11 (3.02)
13.94 6.23 (9.77) (8.98) 5.92 (4.20) (4.47) (15.04) (4.99) (6.51)
Last 1,630.86 876.27 1,085.49 408.08 2,099.13 481.97 954.86 678.46 1,168.49 812.39 787.04 265.06
WoW% (1.51) (1.45) (1.13) (0.85) 1.36 (0.79) 0.34 0.57 0.41 (1.43) (0.05) 0.45
YTD% (30.63) (35.99) (16.95) (24.94) (3.62) (8.18) (17.70) (7.27) (12.49) (7.54) (12.41) (11.52)
Last 13,801 9,958 14,653 9,789 113 20,813
WoW% (1.29) (1.47) (0.72) (1.49) (1.62) (0.11)
YTD% (10.24) 1.92 2.80 (4.22) (8.06) (7.33)
Global Macro Eco United States Euro Area United Kingdom Japan China Singapore
CB Rate (%) 0.25 0.05 0.50 0.10 4.35 0.08
CPI YoY (%) 0.20 0.10 (0.10) 0.30 1.30 (0.80)
GDP YoY (%) 2.20 1.60 2.30 1.00 6.90 1.90
Domestic Macro Eco Jibor InflasiYoY InflasiMoM BI Rate GDP Growth YoY Foreign Reserve (Bn)
Last 5.85 6.25 (0.08) 7.50 4.73 100.70
WoW% (1.45)
YTD% (1.00)
Sources : Bloomberg
Government Bonds 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 30 Year
Yield% 7.49 8.28 8.44 8.46 8.47 8.65 8.71 8.69 8.60 8.62 8.76 8.81 9.16
WoW% (3.61) (1.77) (2.07) (1.73) (0.77) (0.25) (0.25) (0.57) (0.60) (0.32) (0.56) (0.43) (0.83)
YTD% 7.82 10.56 11.69 10.29 9.88 11.58 11.87 11.45 10.01 10.56 7.46 6.26 6.02
Commodities Oil (USD/bbl) Gold (USD tr.oz) Silver (USD tr.oz) Nickel (USD/mtrc ton) Tin (USD/mtrc ton) Copper (USD/mtrc ton) CPO (MYR/ton) Coal (USD/ton) * Natural Gas Corn Soybean Coffe Cotton Sugar Wheat Cocoa
Last 41.82 1,056.12 13.97 8,775.00 15,000.00 4,573.00 2,159.00 61.80 2.21 359.50 281.10 121.00 62.63 14.97 461.50 3,308.00
WoW% 3.54 (1.22) (0.93) 0.52 2.42 (0.15) (0.96) 2.94 (1.03) (0.67) 0.92 1.71 0.13 (5.53) (1.72)
Ytd% (21.49) (10.87) (10.28) (42.08) (22.68) (27.41) (5.76) (1.98) (23.57) (9.45) (22.90) (27.37) 3.92 3.10 (21.75) 13.68
Top Gainer CPIN IJ Equity LPKR IJ Equity SMRA IJ Equity ASRI IJ Equity BBRI IJ Equity
Last 3,220 1,335 1,545 334 11,300
WoW% 14.01 7.69 6.71 5.74 5.24
Ytd% (15.48) 27.45 3.95 (38.39) (1.50)
Top Loser BMTR IJ Equity ITMG IJ Equity ANTM IJ Equity INDF IJ Equity PGAS IJ Equity
Last 805.00 7,025.00 338.00 5,400.00 2,945.00
WoW% (5.78) (4.73) (4.03) (3.54) (3.41)
Ytd% (42.81) (54.31) (60.09) (20.74) (50.25)
Top Volume ANTM IJ Equity SSMS IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity ASRI IJ Equity LPKR IJ Equity
Last 338 1,645 2,960 334 1,335
Volume(Mn) 136.90 74.10 64.31 46.90 37.66
YTD% (60.09) (1.50) 1.76 (38.39) 27.45
Top Value BBRI IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity SSMS IJ Equity BMRI IJ Equity ASII IJ Equity
Last 11,300 2,960 1,645 8,975 6,225
Value(Bn) 219.54 190.37 121.90 113.42 99.99
YTD% (1.50) 1.76 (1.50) (17.17) (16.84)
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OSO Weekly 30 November - 04 Desember 2015
Indonesia Market Review Selama sepekan kemarin IHSG berhasil terangkat ke zona hijau dengan naik 1.98% ke level 4,561.33. Kenaikan tersebut ditopang oleh tumbuhnya indeks sektor consumer goods dan finance yang mampu mencatatkan penguatan 1.36% dan 0.57%. Sementara harga saham yang berhasil melambung diatas 5% selama sepekan, antara lain yaitu CPIN yang menguat 14.01%, LPKR naik 7.69% , dan SMRA menguat 6.71%. Pergerakan kurs selama sepekan kemarin sudah terdepresiasi sebesar 1.29% ke level 13,801 pada akhir tahun. Dari berita dalam negeri paket kebijakan ekonomi Jilid VII yang akan dirilis pada pekan kemarin, ternyata ditunda menjadi minggu ini. Pemerintah masih terus mengkaji perihal insentif penurunan tarif pajak pegawai (PPh 21). Paket kebijakan ekonomi VII, antara lain berisi tentang keringanan pajak untuk industri padat karya yang akan menyempurnakan kebijakan keringanan pajak pada paket kebijakan ekonomi sebelumnya. Selain itu daftar negatif investasi juga akan menjadi salah satu fokus ekonomi paket kebijakan ekonomi ke VII. Global Market Review Sepinya perdagangan pada bursa Wall Street selama sepekan kemarin, membuat indeks utama AS bergerak flat dengan kecenderungan menguat terbatas. Indeks Dow Jones menguat 0.37% ke level 17,798.49, S&P 500 terangkat 0.43% ke level 2,090.11, sementara Nasdaq menguat 1.06% ke level 5,127.52. Selain itu beberapa data ekonomi yang mampu menjadi penggerak market diantaranya Markit Manufacturing AS bulan November yang tumbuh hanya 52.6 atau lebih rendah dari periode sebelumnya 54.1, dan data penjualan rumah AS bulan Oktober yang hanya tumbuh 5.36M atau lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pelaku pasar sebesar 5.4M serta data indeks Consumer Confidence bulan November yang turun dari sebelumnya 99.1 menjadi 90.4 ikut menjadi katalis negatif pada perdagangan selama sepekan kemarin, yang dijadikan pertimbangan pelaku pasar dalam mengambil posisi. Negatifnya data ekonomi tersebut membuat pelaku pasar lebih memilih wait and see. Adapun perdagangan di bursa AS menjelang akhir pekan, diliburkan seiring dengan perayaan thanks giving. Dari bursa Eropa, selama sepekan kemarin berhasil ditutup menguat. Harga komoditas menjadi sorotan pelaku pasar kemarin ditengah sepinya sentimen yang datang. Beberapa komoditas yang sudah terkoreksi cukup dalam pada pekan kemarin berhasil tercatat menguat, diantaranya Nickel dan Timah yang masing-masing naik 0.52% dan 2.42%. Penguatan tersebut direspon positif oleh pelaku pasar, mereka beranggapan bahwa naiknya harga komoditas merupakan sentimen positif untuk perekonomian China. Indeks Euro Stoxx naik 1.06% ke level 3,488.99, FTSE 100 menguat 0.64% ke level 6,375.15, CAC 40 naik tipis 0.39%, dan DAX terangkat 1.56% ke level 11,293.76. GDP Jerman kuartal III yang berhasil tumbuh 0.3% atau sesuai dengan ekspektasi pelaku pasar menjadi salah satu fakor penggerak bursa indeks DAX.
Commodity Market Dari bursa komoditas, selama beberapa pekan sebelumnya komoditas minyak mengalami penurunan, pekan kemarin harga komoditas minyak berhasil rebound 3.54% ke level 41.82. Penguatan harga minyak didorong oleh proses pengeboran minyak di AS yang mengalami perlambatan akibat melimpahnya suplai minyak global. Sementara itu harga komoditas emas tercatat turun 1.22% selama sepekan ke level 1,056.12. Pelemahan tersebut seiring dengan tingginya biaya pinjaman AS yang mendongkrak dollar dan memaksa investor untuk mengurangi kepemilikan. Suku bunga AS yang kemungkinan besar akan dinaikkan pada akhir tahun ini, mampu meningkatkan dollar dan mengurangi daya tarik emas. Market Outlook Kami perkirakan IHSG masih akan bergerak flat dengan kecenderungan menguat. Beberapa data ekonomi yang akan dirilis pekan ini akan menjadi penggerak market, seperti: Industrial production dan Retail sales Jepang pada bulan Oktober, retail sales Jerman bulan Oktober, Pending Home Sales AS bulan Oktober, Manufacturing China bulan November, Unemployment kawasan Zona Eropa, Janet Yellen Speech, Non Farm Payrolls AS bulan november, balance of trade As bulan Oktober serta President Draghi Speech. Secara teknikal, IHSG sudah mulai menyentuh area jenuh beli dengan MACD yang mulai negatif serta MFI dan RSI yang bearish. Kami perkirakan IHSG akan bergerak dikisaran 4526-4615.
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30 November - 04 Desember 2015
Technical Analysis AKRA Saham AKRA berada dalam minor uptrend sejak beberapa pekan lalu dimana indicator MACD Histogram positif, RSI dan MFI menguat. Sedangkan indicator Stochastic Oscillator mengkonfirmasi pola goldencross. Recommendation : Buy Target Price Support Stop loss
: 6265 : 5845 : 5785
TLKM Saham TLKM bergerak membentuk fase uptrend dimana harga sudah breakout upper Bollinger Band. Indicator MACD bergerak menguat dengan histogram positif, MFI juga naik, dan Stochastic Oscillator bergerak di atas batas 80%. Recommendation : Buy Target Price Support Stop loss
: 3080 : 2870 : 2840
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30 November - 04 Desember 2015 APLN Sejak beberapa pekan lalu, saham APLN sudah bergerak dalam tren menguat dengan candle terakhir menembus MA 50 Harian. Indikator MACD Histogram bergerak naik. Sementara MFI dan RSI sedikit mengalami penurunan. Sedangkan Stochastic Oscillator berpotensi deadcross yang mengindikasikan pelemahan. Recommendation : Buy On Weakness Target Price Support Stop loss
: 300 : 280 : 275
SGRO Saham SGRO berada dalam tren menguat setelah sebelumnya bergerak dalam minor downtrend. Indicator MACD Histogram bergerak positif, MFI menguat, dan Stochastic Oscillator bergerak flat di area overbought. Recommendation : Buy Target Price Support Stop loss
: 1510 : 1410 : 1390
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30 November - 04 Desember 2015 Economic Calendar Date
Agenda
Country
30-Nov-15 Japan Industrial Production YoY Prel OCT
JPY
30-Nov-15 Japan Industrial Production MoM Prel OCT
JPY
30-Nov-15 Japan Retail Sales YoY OCT
JPY
30-Nov-15 Japan BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech
JPY
30-Nov-15 Germany Retail Sales MoM OCT
EUR
30-Nov-15 Germany Retail Sales YoY OCT
EUR
30-Nov-15 UK Mortgage Lending OCT
GBP
30-Nov-15 UK Mortgage Approvals OCT
GBP
30-Nov-15 Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel NOV
EUR
30-Nov-15 US Chicago PMI NOV
USD
30-Nov-15 US Pending Home Sales MoM OCT
USD
30-Nov-15 US Pending Home Sales YoY OCT
USD
1-Dec-15 Japan Capital Spending YoY Q3
JPY
1-Dec-15 China NBS Manufacturing PMI NOV
CNY
1-Dec-15 China Non Manufacturing PMI NOV
CNY
1-Dec-15 Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Final NOV
JPY
1-Dec-15 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI NOV
CNY
1-Dec-15 Indonesia Core Inflation Rate YoY NOV
IDR
1-Dec-15 Italy Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI NOV
ITL
1-Dec-15 Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Final NOV
EUR
1-Dec-15 Germany Unemployment Change NOV
EUR
1-Dec-15 Germany Unemployment Rate Harmonised OCT
EUR
1-Dec-15 Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Final NOV
EUR
1-Dec-15 Italy Unemployment Rate OCT
ITL
1-Dec-15 UK BoE Financial Stability Report
GBP
1-Dec-15 UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI NOV
GBP
1-Dec-15 Euro Area Unemployment Rate OCT
EUR
1-Dec-15 Italy GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3
ITL
1-Dec-15 Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3
ITL
1-Dec-15 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final NOV
USD
1-Dec-15 US ISM Manufacturing PMI NOV
USD
1-Dec-15 US Construction Spending MoM OCT
USD
2-Dec-15 US Fed Evans Speech
USD
2-Dec-15 US Fed Brainard Speech
USD
2-Dec-15 Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash NOV
EUR
2-Dec-15 Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash NOV
EUR
2-Dec-15 US Fed Lockhart Speech
USD
2-Dec-15 US Adp Employment Change NOV
USD
2-Dec-15 US Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q3
USD
2-Dec-15 US Fed Tarullo Speech
USD
3-Dec-15 US Fed Yellen Speech
USD
3-Dec-15 US Fed Beige Book
USD
3-Dec-15 US Fed Williams Speech
USD
3-Dec-15 China Caixin General Services PMI NOV
CNY
3-Dec-15 Franch Unemployment Rate Q3
EUR
3-Dec-15 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI NOV
GBP
3-Dec-15 Euro Area Retail Sales MoM OCT
EUR
3-Dec-15 Euro Area Retail Sales YoY OCT
EUR
3-Dec-15 US Challenger Job Cuts NOV
USD
3-Dec-15 Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision
EUR
3-Dec-15 Euro Area ECB Press Conference
EUR
3-Dec-15 US Fed Mester Speech
USD
3-Dec-15 US Factory Orders MoM OCT
USD
3-Dec-15 US Fed Yellen Testifies
USD
3-Dec-15 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI NOV
USD
4-Dec-15 US Fed Fischer Speech
USD
4-Dec-15 Japan Consumer Confidence NOV
JPY
4-Dec-15 Germany Factory Orders MoM OCT
EUR
4-Dec-15 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM NOV
USD
4-Dec-15 US Balance of Trade OCT
USD
4-Dec-15 US Participation Rate NOV
USD
4-Dec-15 US Non Farm Payrolls NOV
USD
4-Dec-15 US Unemployment Rate NOV
USD
4-Dec-15 Euro Area ECB President Draghi Speech
EUR
Sumber :Trading economic & Bloomberg
Prior -0.8% 1.1% -0.2%
Consensus 1.9% 1.8%
0.0% 3.4% £3.6B 68.87K 56.2 -2.3% 3.0%
0.4% 2.95 £3.45B 70K 54 1.5%
5.6% 49.8 53.1 52.4 48.3 5.02% 54.1 52.1 -5K 4.5% 52.3 11.8%
49.8 52.8 48.3 54.2 52.6 -5K 52.8 11.7%
55.5 10.8% 0.3% 0.6% 54.1 50.1 0.6%
10.8% 0.2% 0.9% 52.6 50.3 0.5%
54
1.1% 0.1%
1.1% 0.3%
182K -1.8%
184K 1.0%
52 10.3% 54.9 -0.1% 2.9% 50.5K 0.05%
0.2% 2.8%
-1.0%
1.0%
59.1
58.1
41.5 -1.7% 0.4% $-40.81B 62.4% 271K
0.2% $-41B
55
0.05%
1%
200K 5%
5%
OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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30 November - 04 Desember 2015 RESEARCH TEAM Supriyadi (
[email protected])
Head of Research
+62 21 2991 5300
Research Analyst
+62 21 2991 5300
Research Analyst
+62 21 2991 5300
Rifqiyati (
[email protected])
Riska Afriani (
[email protected])
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