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27-31Juli2015
JCI
(37.32)
4,856.60 29-May-15 Highest Vol (bn) NetForg 1WIDRbn Year to date(%) Indices Americas Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq EIDO EMEA Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei Shanghai TWSE SET KOSPI PCOMP KLSE ST - Times Sensex Hangseng Sektoral AGRICULTURE MINING MISC INDUSTRY BASIC INDUSTRY CONSUMER GOODS PROPERTY INFRASTRUKTUR FINANCE MANUFAKTURE TRADE LQ 45 SRI-KEHATI Currency IDR / USD IDR / AUD IDR / EUR IDR / SGD IDR / JPY IDR / GBP
4,893.92 4,906.69 11,301 (166) (7.09)
0.76%
Lowest Val IDR bn Mkt Cap IDR tr NetForgYTDRbn Month to date (%)
4,856.60 13,032.07 5,028.92 4,574.52 (1.10)
Last
WoW%
YTD%
United States United States United States United States
17,568.53 2,079.65 5,088.63 22.56
(2.86) (2.21) (2.33) (3.22)
(1.43) 1.01 7.44 (17.78)
Euro Area United Kingdom France Germany
3,600.00 6,579.81 5,057.36 11,347.45
(1.92) (2.88) (1.31) (2.79)
14.42 0.21 18.36 15.72
Japanese China Taiwan Thailand Korea Philippine Malaysia Singapore India Hong Kong
20,544.53 4,070.91 8,767.86 1,438.08 2,045.96 7,665.52 1,720.76 3,352.65 28,128.14 25,128.51
(0.27) 2.87 (3.07) (2.79) (1.48) 0.64 (0.35) (0.02) (1.18) (1.13)
17.73 25.85 (5.80) (3.98) 6.81 6.02 (2.30) (0.37) 2.29 6.45
Last 2,045.34 1,009.48 1,162.62 421.85 2,195.03 516.53 1,014.21 694.59 1,225.01 913.38 828.39 279.59
WoW% (4.35) (4.17) (1.96) 0.70 0.05 (1.93) (0.77) (0.92) (0.31) 1.19 (1.09) (1.66)
YTD% (13.00) (26.26) (11.05) (22.41) 0.79 (1.60) (12.59) (5.06) (8.25) 3.95 (7.81) (6.67)
Last 13,447 9,818 14,713 9,813 109 20,831
WoW% (0.70) 0.60 (1.14) (0.31) (0.83) 0.33
YTD% (7.88) 3.38 2.38 (4.45) (4.50) (7.41)
Global Macro Eco United States Euro Area United Kingdom Japan China Singapore
CB Rate (%) 0.25 0.05 0.50 0.10 4.85 0.08
CPI YoY (%) 0.10 0.20 0.50 1.40 (0.30)
GDP YoY (%) 2.90 1.00 2.90 (0.90) 7.00 1.70
Domestic Macro Eco Jibor InflasiYoY InflasiMoM BI Rate GDP Growth YoY Foreign Reserve (Bn)
Last 5.70 7.26 0.54 7.50 4.71 108.03
WoW% (16.59)
YTD% (3.54)
Sources : Bloomberg
Government Bonds 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 30 Year
Yield% 7.07 7.84 7.92 7.93 8.15 8.18 8.34 8.30 8.29 8.26 8.46 8.50 8.77
WoW% 3.95 (0.33) 0.74 (1.21) (0.48) 0.01 0.02 (0.11) (0.21) 0.34 (0.13) 0.05 (0.32)
YTD% 1.86 4.62 4.85 3.39 5.74 5.51 7.14 6.48 6.02 6.00 3.72 2.46 1.51
Commodities Oil (USD/bbl) Gold (USD tr.oz) Silver (USD tr.oz) Nickel (USD/mtrc ton) Tin (USD/mtrc ton) Copper (USD/mtrc ton) CPO (MYR/ton) Coal (USD/ton) * Natural Gas Corn Soybean Coffe Cotton Sugar Wheat Cocoa
Last 48.03 1,095.92 14.61 11,300.00 15,405.00 5,263.00 2,180.00 61.80 2.75 383.00 352.20 122.25 65.84 11.24 506.25 3,181.00
WoW% (4.13) (0.09) (0.92) (1.74) (2.38) (3.96) (0.41) (0.96) (2.66) (5.43) (1.07) (3.74) (0.02) (6.02) (4.97) (4.93)
Ytd% (9.84) (7.51) (6.14) (25.41) (20.59) (16.46) (4.85) (1.98) (4.88) (3.53) (3.40) (26.62) 9.24 (22.59) (14.16) 9.31
Top Gainer AKRA IJ Equity SILO IJ Equity GGRM IJ Equity MNCN IJ Equity INTP IJ Equity
Last 5,875 15,900 51,000 1,945 22,025
WoW% 12.44 11.78 7.14 4.85 4.76
Ytd% 42.60 16.06 (15.98) (23.43) (11.90)
Top Loser PTBA IJ Equity ADRO IJ Equity BBNI IJ Equity ASRI IJ Equity INCO IJ Equity
Last 6,325 560 5,000 515 2,330
WoW% (10.28) (9.68) (8.68) (8.04) (6.43)
Ytd% (49.40) (46.15) (18.03) (8.04) (35.72)
Top Volume ADRO IJ Equity ASRI IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity BBNI IJ Equity BBRI IJ Equity
Last 560 515 2,855 5,000 10,100
Volume(Mn) 62.43 61.72 50.08 45.80 45.36
YTD% (46.15) (8.04) 0.18 (18.03) (13.30)
Top Value BBRI IJ Equity BMRI IJ Equity BBNI IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity ASII IJ Equity
Last 10,100 10,000 5,000 2,855 6,650
Value(Bn) 458.18 252.95 229.01 142.98 126.91
YTD% (13.30) (7.19) (18.03) 0.18 (10.44)
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OSO Weekly 27-31Juli2015
Indonesia Market Review Selama sepekan kemarin IHSG terkoreksi 0.76% atau turun 37.32 poin ke level 4,856.60. Perdagangan di bursa yang sempat libur selama 3 hari di awal pekan kemarin membuat aktivitas investor kurang aggressive. Selain itu minimnya data ekonomi Indonesia yang rilis, membuat investor masih wait and see, sedangkan beberapa investor lainnya mengambil posisi jual baik untuk melakukan profit taking maupun mencari posisi aman. Rilisnya data global yang negatif seperti China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Flash yang turun menjadi 48.2 dari sebelumnya 49.4 , membuat bursa di Asia ikut mengalami koreksi. Hampir seluruh bursa di Asia bergerak negatif hanya bursa China dan Philipine yang mencatatkan trading positif yaitu masing-masing menguat 2.87% dan 0.64% ke level 4070.91 dan 7665.52 .
Global Market Review Selama sepekan kemarin indeks bursa wall street dirurup terkoreksi cukup signifikan. Indeks S&P 500 bergerak turun 2.21% ke level 2,079.65, indeks Nasdaq turun 2.33% ke level 5,088.63 dan indeks DJIA yang mengalami koreksi cukup dalam ke level 17,568.53 atau turun 2.86%. Rilisnya data New Home Sales Amerika pada bulan Juni yang turun menjadi 482K dari sebelumnya 517K menjadi katalis negatif pada perdagangan pekan kemarin. Melemahnya bursa Amerika senada dengan pelemahan yang terjadi pada bursa Eropa. Bursa Eropa ditutup melemah sepanjang pekan kemarin. Melemahnya bursa Eropa seiring dengan rilisnya data manufaktur dan jasa zona euro yang lebih rendah dari ekspektasi. Indeks aktivitas manufaktur zona euro yang dirilis Markit turun ke level terendah 2 bulan pada level 52.2 . Sedangkan indeks aktivitas jasa turun menjadi 53.8 dari sebelumnya 54.4 lebih rendah dari ekspekasi 54.2.
Commodity Market Harga komoditas selama sepekan kemarin kompak bergerak melemah. Pelemahan terbesar terjadi pada komoditas gula yang turun sebesar 6.02% ke level 11.24. Selain itu harga minyak dunia juga turun cukup tajam yaitu 4.13% ke level 48.03 seiring dengan rencana korporasi minyak di Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk menggerakkan lebih banyak pompa, memberi sinyal pasokan minyak tetap melimpah di pasar. Kenaikan dollar AS pada pekan kemarin juga mampu menekan harga komoditas emas. Komoditas emas melemah ke level 1,095.92 atau turun 0.09%.
Market Outlook Kami perkirakan IHSG masih berpotensi menguat terbatas selama sepekam ke depan . Beberapa data ekonomi yang akan dirilis seperti: Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment YoY Q2, Inflation Rate Jepang bulanan, Continuing Jobless Calims Amerika dan Sentimen ekonomi pada kawasan Eropa akan menkado katalis penggerak pada pekan ini. Secara teknikal, IHSG berada di bawah garis middle Bollinger band dengan volume MACD histogram yang melemah. Selain itu indikator stochastic oscilator juga turut bergerak negatif. IHSG diprediksi akan bergerak pada kisaran 4710 dan 5011.
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Technical Analysis BBNI Saham ini bergerak dalam fase downtren dalam sepekan terakhir dimana indikator Stochastic Oscillator terlihat sudah membentuk goldencross yang mengidentifikasikan akan adanya pembalikkan arah.
Recommendation : Buy Target Price Support Stop loss
: 5250 : 4850 : 4800
BBRI Indikator terlihat memiliki potensi untuk naik dimana indikator Stochastic Oscillator dan Momentum membentuk goldencross. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 10600 Support : 9795 Stop loss : 9695
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27-31Juli2015 DILD Saham ini berada pada fase sideways setelah sebelumnya bergerak membentuk downtrend. Indikator Stochastic Oscillator masih menunjukkan pergerakan positif. Sedangkan MACD bergerak flat dengan histogram lebih panjang. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 600 Support : 550 Stop loss : 540
TLKM Setelah bergerak membentuk minor downtrend dalam dua pekan berturut-turut Indicator MACD Histogram bergerak melemah. Namun indicator Stochastic menunjukkan indikasi kenaikan setelah sebelumnya membentuk golden cross. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 2995 Support : 2765 Stop loss : 2740
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27-31Juli2015 Economic Calendar
Date Agenda 5-Jul-15 Greece Referendum on Bailout Terms 6-Jul-15 Japan Coincident Index Prel MAY 6-Jul-15 Japan Leading Composite Index Prel MAY 6-Jul-15 Germany Factory Orders MoM MAY 6-Jul-15 US Markit Services PMI Final JUN 6-Jul-15 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment JUN 6-Jul-15 US Fed Labor Market Conditions Index JUN 6-Jul-15 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI JUN 7-Jul-15 Germany Industrial Production YoY MAY 7-Jul-15 Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN 7-Jul-15 UK Manufacturing Production MoM MAY 7-Jul-15 UK Industrial Production YoY MAY 7-Jul-15 UK Industrial Production MoM MAY 7-Jul-15 UK Manufacturing Production YoY MAY 7-Jul-15 US Balance of Trade MAY 7-Jul-15 US JOLTs Job Openings MAY 8-Jul-15 Indonesia Retail Sales YoY MAY 9-Jul-15 US FOMC Minutes 9-Jul-15 Japan Machinery Orders MoM MAY 9-Jul-15 China Inflation Rate YoY JUN 9-Jul-15 China Inflation Rate MoM JUN 9-Jul-15 China PPI YoY JUN 9-Jul-15 Germany Balance of Trade MAY 9-Jul-15 US Fed's Kocherlakota Speech 9-Jul-15 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 9-Jul-15 UK BoE Quantitative Easing 9-Jul-15 US Fed's Brainard Speech 9-Jul-15 US Fed's George Speech 10-Jul-15 Japan Consumer Confidence JUN 10-Jul-15 Franch Industrial Production MoM MAY 10-Jul-15 Italy Industrial Production MoM MAY 10-Jul-15 UK Balance of Trade MAY 10-Jul-15 UK Construction Output YoY MAY 10-Jul-15 US Fed's Rosengren Speech 10-Jul-15 US Fed's Yellen Speech Sumber :Trading economic & Bloomberg
Country EUR JPY JPY EUR USD USD USD USD EUR IDR GBP GBP GBP GBP USD USD IDR USD JPY CNY CNY CNY EUR USD GBP GBP USD USD JPY EUR EUR GBP GBP USD USD
Actual
Prior
Consensus
109.2 106.2 -0.2% 54.8 52.0 0.8 56.0 2.10% $108.03B -0.60% 2.10% 0.40% 1% $ -41.87B 5.36M 19.80%
111 106.4 1.4% 56.2 55.9 0.9(R) 55.7 1.4% $110.8B -0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.20% $ -40.88B 5.376M 22.4%
0.60% 1.40% 0.00% -4.80% €19.6B
3.8% 1.2% -0.2% -4.6% €22.1B
€21B
0.50% £ 375B
0.5% £ 375B
0.5% £ 375B
41.7 0.4 0.9 £-0.393B 1.30%
41.4 -0.9% -0.3% £-1.834B 1.5%
-0.40% 54.8% 2.0 56.2
0.1% 1.6% -0.2% 1.8% $ -42.6B 5.35M
-5%
0.5% 0.3% 3%
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27-31Juli2015 RESEARCH TEAM Supriyadi (
[email protected])
Head of Research
+62 21 2991 5300
Research Analyst
+62 21 2991 5300
Research Analyst
+62 21 2991 5300
Rifqiyati (
[email protected])
RiskaAfriani (
[email protected])
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