OSO Weekly 31 Juli - 04 Agustus 2017

OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA

STOCK

OSO Weekly

EXCHANGE

31 Juli - 04 Agustus 2017

JCI

65.60

5,831.03 09-Juni-17 Highest Vol (bn) NetForg 1WIDRbn Year to date(%)

5,765.42 5,831.03 45.26 (2.14) 10.09

Sektoral AGRICULTURE MINING MISC INDUSTRY BASIC INDUSTRY CONSUMER GOODS PROPERTY INFRASTRUKTUR FINANCE MANUFAKTURE TRADE LQ 45 SRI-KEHATI Currency IDR / USD IDR / AUD IDR / EUR IDR / SGD IDR / JPY IDR / GBP Global Macro Eco United States Euro Area United Kingdom Japan China Singapore Domestic Macro Eco Jibor InflasiYoY InflasiMoM BI 7Days Reverse Repo GDP Growth YoY Foreign Reserve (Bn) Sources : Bloomberg

5,800.21 34,864.66 6,389.25 6,395.40 0.02

Lowest Val IDR bn Mkt Cap IDR tr NetForgYTDRbn Month to date (%)

Indices

Americas Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq EIDO EMEA Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei Shanghai TWSE SET KOSPI PCOMP KLSE ST - Times Sensex Hangseng

1.14

Last

WoW%

YTD%

United States United States United States United States

21,830.31 2,472.10 6,374.68 26.80

1.16 (0.02) (0.20) 0.71

10.46 10.42 18.42 11.07

Euro Area United Kingdom France Germany

3,467.73 7,368.37 5,131.39 12,162.70

0.46 (1.13) 0.27 (0.63)

5.39 3.16 5.53 5.94

Japanese China Taiwan Thailand Korea Philippine Malaysia Singapore India Hong Kong

19,959.84 3,253.24 10,423.05 1,581.06 2,400.99 8,071.47 1,767.08 3,330.75 32,309.88 26,979.39

(0.70) 0.47 (0.13) 0.37 (2.00) 1.02 0.45 0.50 0.88 1.02

4.42 4.82 12.64 2.47 18.48 17.99 7.64 15.62 21.35 22.63

Last 1,742.43 1,501.05 1,363.31 609.80 2,498.43 488.61 1,207.81 971.45 1,465.94 923.44 974.13 357.59

WoW% (2.82) 2.33 (2.52) (1.34) 0.37 1.14 2.88 2.73 (0.49) 0.57 1.17 1.50

YTD% (6.53) 8.40 (0.53) 13.31 7.49 (5.64) 14.42 19.65 7.10 7.30 10.12 15.28

Last 13,324 10,612 15,601 9,803 120 17,438

WoW% (0.08) (0.79) (0.55) (0.46) (0.48) (0.78)

YTD% 1.12 (8.35) (9.23) (5.02) (3.93) (5.18)

CB Rate (%) 1.25 0.25 0.10 4.35 0.08

CPI YoY (%) 1.60 1.30 2.60 0.40 1.50 0.50

GDP YoY (%) 2.10 1.90 1.70 1.30 6.90 2.50

Last 4.36 4.37 0.69 4.75 5.01 123.09

WoW% (0.21)

YTD% 2.93

Government Bonds

1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 30 Year Commodities Oil (USD/bbl) Gold (USD tr.oz) Silver (USD tr.oz) Nickel (USD/mtrc ton) Tin (USD/mtrc ton) Copper (USD/mtrc ton) CPO (MYR/ton) Coal (USD/ton) * Natural Gas Corn Soybean Coffe Cotton Sugar Wheat Cocoa Top Gainer INCO IJ Equity PWON IJ Equity JSMR IJ Equity AKRA IJ Equity BBTN IJ Equity Top Loser

Yield%

WoW%

YTD%

6.10 6.46 6.71 6.70 6.68 6.93 6.94 7.10 6.94 6.91 7.39 7.59 7.88

(1.85) (1.13) (0.45) (1.30) (0.39) (0.12) (0.17) (0.66) (0.72) (0.68) (0.10) (0.22) 0.23

(11.88) (13.49) (11.34) (12.93) (11.85) (11.60) (13.36) (12.52) (14.05) (13.36) (9.95) (7.36) (8.02)

Last 49.85 1,269.20 16.72 10,200.00 20,600.00 6,325.00 2,666.00 86.10 2.88 369.25 316.50 137.85 69.83 14.37 475.50 2,060.00

WoW% 7.57 1.10 1.96 7.14 1.85 5.35 2.07 1.12 (0.55) (2.12) (2.88) 0.95 1.20 (0.21) (2.71) 4.67

Ytd% (7.20) 10.15 4.57 1.80 (2.49) 14.26 (17.15) (9.75) (22.58) 4.90 1.15 0.58 (1.16) (26.35) 16.54 (3.10)

Last 2,490 695 5,700 6,775 2,590

WoW% 13.70 13.01 8.06 7.54 7.47

Ytd% (11.70) 23.01 31.94 12.92 48.85

Last

WoW%

Ytd%

2,740.00 1,025.00 995.00 14,575.00 520.00

(13.02) (7.66) (7.44) (5.66) (5.45)

(11.33) (23.22) (24.91) (13.11) (15.45)

Top Volume ANTM IJ Equity PWON IJ Equity ASII IJ Equity LPKR IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity

Last 690 695 7,950 685 4,700

Volume(Mn) 109.99 97.37 96.03 87.52 77.01

YTD% (22.91) 23.01 (3.93) (4.86) 18.62

Top Value ASII IJ Equity BBRI IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity BBCA IJ Equity BMRI IJ Equity

Last 7,950 14,500 4,700 18,800 13,375

Value(Bn) 763.44 661.21 361.96 318.60 292.22

YTD% (3.93) 24.20 18.62 21.29 15.55

CPIN IJ Equity CTRA IJ Equity SMRA IJ Equity AALI IJ Equity BMTR IJ Equity


STOCK

EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 31 Juli - 04 Agustus 2017

Market Review Sepanjang pekan kemarin IHSG menguat 1.14% ke level 5,831.03. Lima dari sepuluh indeks sektoral ditutup menguat, penguatan tertinggi dipimpin oleh sektor infrastruktur dan keuangan yang masing-masing naik sebesar 2.88% dan 2.73%. Sementara itu, sektor perkebunan dan aneka industri masingmasing melemah 2.82% dan 2.52%. Adapun beberapa sentimen yang menjadi penggerak indeks pada pekan kemarin yaitu, positifnya kinerja keuangan emiten sepanjang semester I seperti: BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, PTBA, JSMR. Selain itu, rilisnya data ekonomi dari dalam negeri juga turut menjadi penggerak indeks seperti: Foreign Direct Investment pada kuartal II meningkat sebesar 10.6% dari sebelumnya 0.9% pada kuartal pertama. Global Market Dalam waktu sepekan kemarin bursa AS menunjukkan pergerakan negative di mana indeks S&P 500 mengalami pelemahan tipis sebesar 0.02% dan Nasdaq turun sebesar 0.20%. Hanya indeks Dow Jones yang mencatatkan kinerja positif yakni naik sebesar 1.16%. Pelemahan pada bursa AS terjadi di tengah adanya sentimen positif seperti suku bunga The Fed yang stay di level 1.25%, kinerja keuangan emiten yang mayoritas mencatatkan pertumbuhan yang baik, indeks kepercayaan konsumen AS yang meningkat, indeks manufaktur AS yang naik dan penjualan rumah baru yang juga bertambah. Selain itu, kebijakan Donald Trump yang hingga saat ini nampaknya masih menjadi perhatian besar para pelaku pasar. Di sisi lain, pergerakan bursa Eropa berakhir mixed selama sepekan kemarin dengan indeks Euro Stoxx dan CAC 40 yang mencatatkan kenaikan di mana masing-masing naik sebesar 0.46% dan 0.27%. Sementara, indeks FTSE 100 dan DAX mengalami penurunan yakni sebesar 1.13% dan 0.63%. Komoditas Sepekan kemarin mayoritas harga komoditas tercatat mengalami kenaikan di mana Oil dan Nickel memimpin kenaikan di atas 7%. Dari komoditas lain ada Copper yang naik 5.35%, CPO 2.07%, Silver 1.93%, Tin 1.85% dan Gold 1.10%. Di awal pekan harga minyak sempat melemah seiring dengan melimpahnya pasokan minyak mentah dari Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak OPEC. Namun, pelemahan hanya berlangsung sementara. Harga minyak kembali bangkit merespon pernyataan Arab Saudi yang akan memangkas ekspor minyak mentahnya diikuti dengan persetujuan Nigeria untuk tidak melakukan produksi. Sementara itu, komoditas nickel memang cenderung berada dalam tren naik sejak tiga bulan terakhir setelah rilisnya data World Bureau of Metal Statictics (WBMS) periode Januari-Mei 2017 yang mencatatkan defisit nickel 54.300 ton. Hal ini mampu mendorong sikap optimistis para pelaku pasar terhadap prospek nickel ke depan. Bahkan, saat ini harga nikel sendiri sudah mencapai level tertingginya. JCI Prediction Kami perkirakan sepekan ini IHSG masih berpotensi untuk kembali melanjutkan penguatannya. Secara teknikal, stochastic oscillator bullish, RSI kuat. Adapun beberapa data ekonomi yang turut menjadi perhatian pelaku pasar diantaranya, dari dalam negeri : indeks manufaktur dan inflasi pada bulan Juli, sementara dari global data yang akan diperhatikan yaitu, indeks manufaktur China dan AS pada bulan Juli, penjualan kendaraan AS bulan Juli, klaim pengangguran AS per 29 Juli, neraca perdagangan AS bulan Juni dan Non farm payroll AS bulan Juli. Kami perkirakan IHSG akan bergerak dikisaran 5765-5897


STOCK

OSO Weekly

EXCHANGE

31 Juli - 04 Agustus 2017

Technical Analysis BJBR Harga di dalam medium trend bergerak downtrend. Volume meningkat signifikan dan stochastic golden cross. Harga diprediksikan mengalami penguatan ke resistance terdekat. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 2.250 Support : 1.980 Cutloss : 1.975

GGRM Harga di dalam medium trend bergerak uptrend. Harga membentuk pola bullish penant disertai volume meningkat tipis dan stochastic bergerak positif. Harga diprediksikan melanjutkan penguatan ke resistance terdekat. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 83.925 Support : 79.300 Cutloss : 79.275


STOCK

OSO Weekly

EXCHANGE

31 Juli - 04 Agustus 2017 INDY Harga di dalam medium trend bergerak sideways. Volume meningkat tipis dan stochastic golden cross. Harga diprediksikan melanjutkan penguatan ke resistance terdekat. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 990 Support : 840 Cutloss : 835

VIVA Harga di dalam medium trend bergerak downtrend. Harga membentuk pola double buttom disertai volume meningkat tipis dan stochastic golden cross. Harga diprediksikan mengalami penguatan ke resistance terdekat. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 346 Support : 312 Cutloss : 310


STOCK

OSO Weekly

EXCHANGE

31 Juli - 04 Agustus 2017 PTPP Harga di dalam medium trend bergerak downtrend. Harga membentuk pola double buttom dengan volume meningkat tipis disertai stochastic golden cross. Harga diprediksikan mengalami penguatan ke resistance terdekat. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 3.250 Support : 2.920 Cutloss : 2.915

PTBA Harga di dalam medium trend bergerak uptrend. Volume meningkat dan Stochastic golden cross. Harga diprediksikan melanjutkan penguatan ke resistance terdekat. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 14.000 Support : 13.025 Cutloss : 13.000


STOCK

OSO Weekly

EXCHANGE

31 Juli - 04 Agustus 2017 Economic Calendar Date 31-Agust-15 31-Agust-15 31-Agust-15 31-Agust-15 31-Agust-15 31-Agust-15 31-Agust-15 31-Agust-15 31-Agust-15 31-Agust-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 01-Sep-15 02-Sep-15 02-Sep-15 02-Sep-15 03-Sep-15 03-Sep-15 03-Sep-15 03-Sep-15 03-Sep-15 03-Sep-15 03-Sep-15 03-Sep-15 03-Sep-15 04-Sep-15 04-Sep-15 04-Sep-15 04-Sep-15 04-Sep-15 04-Sep-15 04-Sep-15 04-Sep-15 04-Sep-15 04-Sep-15

Agenda Japan Industrial Production YoY Prel JUL Japan Industrial Production MoM Prel JUL Germany Retail Sales MoM JUL Germany Retail Sales YoY JUL Italy Reatil Sales MoM JUN Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash AUG Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash AUG Italy Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG India GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 US Chicago PMI AUG Japan Capital Spending YoY Q2 China NBS Manufacturing PMI AUG China Non Manufacturing PMI AUG Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Final AUG China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final AUG China Caixin General Services PMI AUG Indonesia Core Inflation Rate YoY AUG Italy Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI AUG Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Final AUG Germany Unemployment Change AUG Germany Unemployment Rate AUG Germany Unemployment Rate Harmonised JUL Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Final AUG Italy Unemployment Rate JUL UK Mortgage Lending JUL UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI AUG UK Mortgage Approvals JUL Euro Area Unemployment Rate JUL Italy GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final AUG US ISM Manufacturing PMI AUG US Construction Spending MoM JUL US Fed Rosengren Speech US ADP Employment Change AUG US Factory Orders MoM JUL Japan BoJ Kiuchi Speech Franch Unemployment Rate Q2 Euro Area Retail Sales MoM JUL Euro Area Retail Sales YoY JUL US Challenger Job Cuts AUG Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision Euro Area ECB Press Conference US Balance of Trade JUL US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI AUG US Fed Beige Book US Fed Kocherlakota Speech Germany Factory Orders MoM JUL Franch Consumer Confidence AUG Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2 US Fed Lacker Speech US Average Hourly Earnings MoM AUG US Participation Rate AUG US Non Farm Payrolls AUG US Unemployment Rate AUG

Sumber :Trading economic & Bloomberg

Country JPY JPY EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR INR USD JPY CNY CNY JPY CNY CNY IDR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR GBP GBP GBP EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD USD USD USD JPY EUR EUR EUR USD EUR EUR USD USD USD USD EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD USD USD

Actual

Prior

Consensus

51.5 68.76K 10.90% 0.30% 0.70% 53 51.1 0.70%

2.3% 0.8% -2.30% 5.1% -0.1% 1% 0.2% 0.2% 7.5% 54.7 7.3% 50 53.9 51.2 47.8 53.8 4.86% 55.3 51.8 9K 6.4% 4.7% 52.4 12.7% £2.6B 51.9 66.58K 11.1% 0.3% 0.1% 53.8 52.7 0.1%

190K 0.40%

177K 1.8%

10.3% 0.4% 2.7% 41.2K 0.05%

10.3% -0.6% 1.2% 105.7K 0.05%

$-41.86B

$-43.84B 60.3

$ -44B 58.5

2.0% 93 0.4% 0.2$ 62.6 215K 5.3% 52.9

-0.5% 94 0.3%

0.20% -0.60% 1.40% 3.30% -0.30% 1% 0.20% 0.20% 7.00% 54.4 5.60% 49.7 53.4 51.7 47.3 51.5 4.92% 53.8 53.3 (7K) 6.40% 4.70% 52 12%

£2.7B

59

-1.40% 93 0.20%

62.60% 173K 5.10%

0.1% 1% 1.9%

0.1% 0.1% 7.4% 54.9 49.7 51.9 47.1 4.87% 54.8% 53.2 -3K 6.4% 52.4 12.6% 52 68K 11.1% 0.2% 0.5% 52.9 52.7 0.6% 202K 1%

0.6% 2.1%

220K 5.3%


STOCK

OSO Weekly

EXCHANGE

31 Juli - 04 Agustus 2017 RESEARCH TEAM Rifqiyati ([email protected])

Research Analyst

+62 21 2991 5300

([email protected])

Research Analyst

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Research Analyst

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Research Analyst

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Research Support & Admin

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DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by PT OSO Securities on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstance.is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. OSO Securities. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of PT. OSO Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT. OSO Securities, its affiliated companiesor their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT. OSO Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards tothe specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.

OSO Weekly 31 Juli - 04 Agustus 2017

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