OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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OSO Weekly
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16 - 20 November 2015
JCI
(93.71)
4,472.84 Previous Highest Vol (bn) Nett Foreign 1W Return YTD Indices Americas Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq EIDO EMEA Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei Shanghai TWSE SET KOSPI PCOMP KLSE ST - Times Sensex Hangseng Sektoral AGRICULTURE MINING MISC INDUSTRY BASIC INDUSTRY CONSUMER GOODS PROPERTY INFRASTRUKTUR FINANCE MANUFAKTURE TRADE LQ 45 SRI-KEHATI Currency IDR / USD IDR / AUD IDR / EUR IDR / SGD IDR / JPY IDR / GBP
4,566.55 4,499.51 19.4 (76.8) (14.43)
2.50%
Lowest Val IDR bn Mkt Cap IDR tr NetForgYTDRbn Month to date (%)
4,451.05 21,849.97 4,738.22 (18,577.39) 0.40
Last
WoW%
YTD%
United States United States United States United States
17,245.24 2,023.04 4,927.88 20.04
(3.71) (3.63) (4.26) (5.16)
(3.24) (1.74) 4.05 (26.97)
Euro Area United Kingdom France Germany
3,360.65 6,118.28 4,807.95 10,708.40
(3.10) (3.71) (3.54) (2.54)
6.81 (6.82) 12.53 9.21
Japanese China Taiwan Thailand Korea Philippine Malaysia Singapore India Hong Kong
19,596.91 3,580.84 8,329.50 1,382.46 1,973.29 6,897.77 1,658.91 2,925.68 25,610.53 22,396.14
1.72 (0.26) (4.19) (2.27) (3.32) (3.10) (1.75) (3.24) (2.64) (2.06)
12.30 10.70 (10.51) (7.69) 3.01 (4.60) (5.81) (13.06) (6.87) (5.12)
Last 1,637.73 891.82 1,137.65 391.29 2,037.60 475.53 901.03 660.85 1,151.03 816.10 762.89 257.39
WoW% (7.38) (6.12) (0.61) 0.29 (2.34) (2.18) (0.77) (2.41) (1.42) (1.63) (2.67) (2.63)
YTD% (30.34) (34.86) (12.96) (28.03) (6.44) (9.41) (22.34) (9.68) (13.79) (7.12) (15.10) (14.08)
Last 13,685 9,747 14,717 9,630 112 20,810
WoW% (0.88) (0.38) 0.20 0.04 (0.22) (1.12)
YTD% (9.48) 4.13 2.35 (2.64) (7.07) (7.32)
Global Macro Eco United States Euro Area United Kingdom Japan China Singapore
CB Rate (%) 0.25 0.05 0.50 0.10 4.35 0.08
CPI YoY (%) (0.10) 1.30 (0.60)
GDP YoY (%) 2.00 1.60 2.30 1.00 6.90 1.40
Domestic Macro Eco Jibor InflasiYoY InflasiMoM BI Rate GDP Growth YoY Foreign Reserve (Bn)
Last 5.99 6.25 (0.08) 7.50 4.73 100.70
WoW% 0.19
YTD% 1.33
Sources : Bloomberg
Government Bonds 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 30 Year
Yield% 7.76 8.36 8.61 8.57 8.56 8.66 8.73 8.74 8.64 8.64 8.88 8.96 9.28
WoW% (3.10) (0.72) 0.09 (0.43) 0.04 (0.17) (0.30) (0.17) (0.06) (0.62) (0.35) (0.02)
YTD% 11.79 11.63 13.91 11.83 11.07 11.66 12.17 12.11 10.50 10.79 8.98 8.05 7.45
Commodities Oil (USD/bbl) Gold (USD tr.oz) Silver (USD tr.oz) Nickel (USD/mtrc ton) Tin (USD/mtrc ton) Copper (USD/mtrc ton) CPO (MYR/ton) Coal (USD/ton) * Natural Gas Corn Soybean Coffe Cotton Sugar Wheat Cocoa
Last 40.95 1,091.68 14.35 9,425.00 14,750.00 4,825.00 2,183.00 61.80 2.44 358.50 289.70 112.15 61.68 15.04 494.25 3,346.00
WoW% (6.66) (0.06) (0.47) (2.13) 0.75 (3.25) (1.84) (0.96) 6.17 (2.25) (1.80) (4.76) 0.03 4.01 (1.49) 3.37
Ytd% (23.13) (7.86) (7.84) (37.79) (23.97) (23.41) (4.71) (1.98) (15.47) (9.70) (20.54) (32.68) 2.34 3.58 (16.19) 14.98
Top Gainer SCMA IJ Equity CTRA IJ Equity ASII IJ Equity GGRM IJ Equity INTP IJ Equity
Last 3,205 1,270 6,600 48,100 19,750
WoW% 18.64 13.78 12.50 11.71 11.44
Ytd% (7.00) (3.77) (15.15) (23.89) (16.00)
Top Loser SILO IJ Equity MPPA IJ Equity LSIP IJ Equity ANTM IJ Equity BMTR IJ Equity
Last 10,225.00 2,150.00 1,440.00 355.00 895.00
WoW% (8.71) (6.52) (5.14) (5.04) (4.92)
Ytd% (8.03) (15.74) (19.05) (55.62) (29.12)
Top Volume ANTM IJ Equity LPKR IJ Equity SSMS IJ Equity ASRI IJ Equity ASII IJ Equity
Last 355 1,225 1,905 384 6,600
Volume(Mn) 101.24 81.44 60.31 56.73 44.21
YTD% (55.62) 27.45 19.52 (29.11) (15.15)
Top Value ASII IJ Equity BBRI IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity SSMS IJ Equity UNTR IJ Equity
Last 6,600 10,700 2,735 1,905 17,925
Value(Bn) 291.76 122.01 115.69 114.90 100.01
YTD% (15.15) (3.86) (3.15) 19.52 17.00
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OSO Weekly 16 - 20 November 2015
Indonesia Market Review Selama sepekan IHSG telah terkoreksi 2.50% atau turun 93.71 poin ke level 4,472.84. Mayoritas indeks sektoral ditutup melemah dengan pelemahan terdalam sektor Agriculture dan Mining yang masing-masing terkoreksi 7.38% dan 6.12%. Meningkatnya indeks kepercayaan bisnis pelaku pasar dari sebelumnya 105.46 menjadi 106.04 dengan didukung oleh data penjualan ritel Indonesia bulan September yang berhasil tumbuh 7.2% dari sebelumnya 5.8% ternyata tidak serta merta membawa IHSG untuk melaju kencang seiring dengan masih lemahnya daya beli masyarakat yang tercermin dalam penjualan mobil bulan Oktober yang turun 16.2% (YoY) atau lebih rendah dari penurunan sebelumnya 9.4% (YoY). Sementara itu, Current Account kuartal III 2015 yang rilis di akhir pekan, mencatatkan defisit $ 4 miliar atau 1.86% dari PDB, membaik jika dibandingkan Q3 2014 dengan defisit $ 7 miliar atau 1.95% dari PDB. Dari bursa Asia, mayoritas indeks ditutup melemah, hanya indeks Nikkei yang berhasil mencatatkan penguatan. Indeks Nikkei menguat 1.72% ke level 19,596.91. Indeks Nikkei rebound didorong oleh sentimen positif data ekonomi yang membaik dan melemahnya Yen, sehingga mampu menguatkan saham-saham di bursa Jepang. Transaksi berjalan Jepang ditutup positif dengan surplus ¥ 1,47 trilun ($11,95 miliar). Sejumlah laporan keuangan emiten juga memberikan sentimen positif yang mengangkat harga saham Jepang.
Global Market Review Sementara itu, indeks utama bursa Wall Street terprosok dalam dengan turun diatas 3.5% selama sepekan kemarin. Indeks Dow Jones melemah 3.71% ke level 17,245.24, S&P 500 turun 3.63% ke level 2,023.04 dan Nasdaq terjelembab 4.26% ke level 4,927.88. Pelemahan tersebut dipicu oleh beberapa data AS yang kurang baik, seperti rilisnya Initial Jobless Claims per 7 November yang tercatat tetap dari periode sebelumnya 276K atau lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi pelaku pasar yang turun menjadi 270K, menjadi katalis negatif. Adapun rilisnya dara retail sales AS bulan Oktober yang hanya tumbuh 0.1% (MoM) lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pelaku pasar 0.5% (MoM), ikut menyeret pergerakan bursa Wall Street. Hal yang sama juga dirasakan oleh bursa Eropa, dimana mayoritas indeks utama Eropa mengalami kejatuhan yang cukup signifkan. Indeks Euro Stoxx melemah 3.10% ke level 3,360.65, indeks FTSE 100 turun 3.71% ke level 6,118.28 dan CAC 40 terkoreksi 3.54% ke level 4,807.95 dan Dax turun 2.54% ke level 10,708. Salah satu faktor pelemahan indeks utama Eropa disebabkan oleh penurunan komoditas yang terus merosot. Selain itu rilisnya data Industrial Production Kawasan zona Eropa bulan September yang turun 0.3% atau lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pasar -0,1% ikut menjadi faktor pemberat indeks.
Commodity Market Selama sepekan kemarin harga komoditas bergerak variatif dengan kecenderungan melemah. Pelemahan terdalam terjadi pada komoditas minyak yang sudah hampir 2 pekan terahir terus mencatatkan penurunan, dengan penutupan jum’at lalu berada di level 40.95 atau telah turun 6.66% selama sepekan. Tersungkurnya harga minyak merupkan indikasi adanya penumpukan minyak mentah di AS serta melimpahnya persediaan minyak dunia. Sementara itu, komoditas CPO juga ikut mencatatkan penurunan sebesar 1.84% ke level 2,183. Pergerakan harga minyak sawit (CPO) cenderung fluktuatif menunggu sentimen positif yang mampu mendongkrak harga. Stok CPO malayasia yang terus mencatatkan kenaikan membuat harga CPO terus tertekan. Adapun komoditas emas yang dicatatkan melemah tipis 0.06% ke level 1,091.68. Market Outlook Selama sepekan ini, kami perkirakan IHSG akan bergerak menguat. Beberapa data ekonomi yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini akan menjadi penggerak market, seperti : BI Rate, Inflation rate As bulan Oktober, inflation rate Inggris bulan Oktober, House Price Index China bulan Oktober, Building Permits AS bulan Oktober, Balance of Trade Jepang bulan Oktober, retail sales Inggris Okt, dan Consumer Confidence Flash Kawasan Zona eropa bulan November. Secara teknikal, IHSG sudah berada di area middle bollingerband, dengan indikator stochastic oscilator sudah membentuk goldencross pada area jenuh jual. Selain itu histogram MACD juga positif. Namun indikator MFI dan RSI masih bearish. kami perkirakan IHSG akan bergerak pada kisaran 4432- 4518.
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16 - 20 November 2015
Technical Analysis BCIP Saham ini berada dalam minor uptrend dalam 2 minggu terakhir setelah sebelumnya mengalami fase downtrend. Indicator MACD Histogram bergerak menguat. Sementara MFI dan RSI masih bergerak flat di area netral. Recommendation : Buy Target Price Support Stop loss
: 905 : 835 : 825
BBCA Selama sepekan kemarin saham BBCA sudah bergerak membentuk pola downtrend dimana indicator MFI dan RSI melemah. Namun indicator Stochastic Oscillator berpotensi goldencross dengan indikasi aka nada pembalikkan arah. Recommendation : Buy Target Price Support Stop loss
: 13.570 : 12.535 : 12.410
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16 - 20 November 2015 INTP Saham ini membentuk pola double bottom selama beberapa pekan. Indicator Momentum bergerak menguat. Begitu pun dengan indicator Stochastic Oscillator dan William%R yang juga bergerak naik menembus batas netral. Recommendation : Buy Target Price Support Stop loss
: 21.000 : 19.400 : 19.200
UNVR Dalam beberapa pekan kemarin, saham UNVR membentuk minor downtrend dan bergerak di area lower Bollinger band. Indicator MFI, RSI, Momentum dan Stochastic Oscillator sudah menunjukkan pergerakan positif. Recommendation : Buy Target Price Support Stop loss
: 38.110 : 35.210 : 34.850
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16 - 20 November 2015 Economic Calendar Date 16-Nop-15 16-Nop-15 16-Nop-15 16-Nop-15 16-Nop-15 16-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 17-Nop-15 18-Nop-15 18-Nop-15 18-Nop-15 18-Nop-15 18-Nop-15 18-Nop-15 18-Nop-15 18-Nop-15 18-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 19-Nop-15 20-Nop-15 20-Nop-15 20-Nop-15 20-Nop-15 20-Nop-15 20-Nop-15 20-Nop-15
Agenda Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q3 Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q3 Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Final OCT Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Final OCT Euro Area ECB President Draghi Speech Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report Indonesia Interest Rate Decision UK Core Inflation Rate YoY OCT UK Inflation Rate MoM OCT UK Inflation Rate YoY OCT Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index NOV Germany ZEW Current Conditions NOV US Core Inflation Rate MoM OCT US Inflation Rate MoM OCT US Core Inflation Rate YoY OCT US Inflation Rate YoY OCT US Industrial Production MoM OCT US Capacity Utilization OCT US NAHB Housing Market Index NOV US Fed Powell Speech US Fed Tarullo Speech US Net Long-term Tic Flows SEP China House Price Index YoY OCT Euro Area Construction Output YoY SEP Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting US Housing Starts OCT US Building Permits OCT US Housing Starts MoM OCT US Fed Lockhart Speech US Fed Mester Speech US Fed Dudley Speech US FOMC Minutes Japan Exports YoY OCT Japan Balance of Trade OCT Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision UK Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM OCT UK Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY OCT UK Retail Sales MoM OCT UK Retail Sales YoY OCT Euro Area ECB MP Meeting Accounts US CB Leading Index MoM OCT US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index NOV US Fed Lockhart Speech US Fed Fischer Speech Japan BoJ Monthly Report Germany PPI MoM OCT Euro Area ECB President Draghi Speech US Fed Bullard Speech Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash NOV
Sumber :Trading economic & Bloomberg
Country JPY JPY EUR EUR EUR EUR IDR GBP GBP GBP EUR EUR USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD CNY EUR EUR USD USD USD USD USD USD USD JPY JPY JPY GBP GBP GBP GBP EUR USD USD USD USD JPY EUR EUR USD EUR
Actual
Prior -1.2% -0.3% -4.54% 0.9% -0.1% 0.2% 7.5% 1.00% -0.1% -0.1% 1.9 55.2 0.2% -0.2% 1.9% 0.0% -0.2% 77.5% 64
Consensus -0.2% -0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 7.5% 1% 0.1% -0.1% 6 55.5 0.2% 0.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 77.5 64
$20.4B -0.9% -6.00% 1206K 1105k 6.5% 35
1170K 1150K
0.6% ¥-114.5B 0% 1.7% 5.9% 1.9% 6.5%
-2.1% ¥-292B
-0.2% -4.5
6.0% 0.5%
-0.4%
-0.2%
-7.7
-7.5
-0.5% 3.9% -0.5% 4.2%
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16 - 20 November 2015 RESEARCH TEAM Supriyadi (
[email protected])
Head of Research
+62 21 2991 5300
Research Analyst
+62 21 2991 5300
Research Analyst
+62 21 2991 5300
Rifqiyati (
[email protected])
RiskaAfriani (
[email protected])
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