OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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OSO Weekly
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10 - 14 Oktober 2016
JCI
12.34
5,377.15 Previous Highest Vol (bn) Nett Foreign 1W Return YTD ` Indices Americas Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq EIDO EMEA Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei Shanghai TWSE SET KOSPI PCOMP KLSE ST - Times Sensex Hangseng Sektoral AGRICULTURE MINING MISC INDUSTRY BASIC INDUSTRY CONSUMER GOODS PROPERTY INFRASTRUKTUR FINANCE MANUFAKTURE TRADE LQ 45 SRI-KEHATI Currency IDR / USD IDR / AUD IDR / EUR IDR / SGD IDR / JPY IDR / GBP
5,364.80 5,472.32 40.77 557.80 17.07
0.23%
Lowest Val IDR bn Mkt Cap IDR tr NetForgYTDRbn Month to date (%)
5,3777.15 31,761.36 5,815.07 33,896.80 0.23
Last
WoW%
YTD%
United States United States United States United States
18,240.49 2,153.74 5,292.41 26.19
(0.37) (0.67) (0.37) (0.95)
4.68 5.37 5.69 25.49
Euro Area United Kingdom France Germany
3,000.57 7,044.39 4,449.91 10,490.86
(0.06) 2.10 0.04 0.82
(8.17) 12.85 (4.04) (2.35)
Japanese China Taiwan Thailand Korea Philippine Malaysia Singapore India Hong Kong
16,860.09 3,004.70 9,265.81 1,504.34 2,053.80 7,578.29 1,665.38 2,875.24 28,061.14 23,851.82
2.49 (0.96) 1.08 1.42 (0.72) (0.67) (0.26) 0.20 0.70 2.38
(11.42) (15.10) 11.13 16.79 4.72 9.01 (1.60) (0.26) 7.44 8.84
Last 1,785.66 1,208.04 1,364.00 525.89 2,509.39 563.83 1,107.09 794.99 1,428.91 854.39 924.82 320.61
WoW% (0.43) 4.27 (0.35) 2.55 2.04 (0.22) (2.20) (1.10) 1.69 0.23 0.28 (0.94)
YTD% 3.86 48.94 29.01 28.94 21.53 14.85 12.81 15.71 24.07 0.57 16.77 20.91
Last 12,989 9,838 14,457 9,451 125 16,147
WoW% 0.41 0.92 0.89 1.10 3.19 4.71
YTD% 6.15 2.59 4.18 3.33 (8.42) 26.72
Global Macro Eco United States Euro Area United Kingdom Japan China Singapore
CB Rate (%) 0.50 0.25 0.10 4.35 0.08
CPI YoY (%) 1.10 0.40 0.60 (0.50) 1.30 (0.30)
GDP YoY (%) 1.30 1.60 2.10 0.80 6.70 2.10
Domestic Macro Eco Jibor InflasiYoY InflasiMoM BI Rate GDP Growth YoY Foreign Reserve (Bn)
Last 4.79 3.07 0.22 6.50 5.18 115.67
WoW% (7.19)
YTD% (36.96)
Sources : Bloomberg
Government Bonds 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 30 Year Commodities
Yield% 6.17 6.73 6.76 6.88 6.95 7.00 7.07 7.16 7.15 7.11 7.33 7.44 7.66
WoW% (0.82) 2.33 1.20 1.42 1.52 0.82 0.90 1.12 (0.04) 0.75 0.54 0.50 0.04
YTD% (23.67) (21.83) (23.77) (22.37) (21.25) (21.67) (20.93) (20.38) (19.17) (18.65) (18.29) (16.90) (17.38)
Last
WoW%
Ytd%
49.30 1,262.55 17.68 10,200.00 20,000.00 4,778.00 2,650.00 61.80 3.16 340.25 297.50 148.00 68.25 23.42 397.50 2,785.00
1.00 (3.83) (6.30) (3.55) (0.12) (1.79) (4.02) (0.96) 8.24 (1.66) (2.75) (2.34) (0.70) 3.95 0.51 0.87
33.10 18.95 28.09 15.65 37.41 1.55 10.51 (1.98) 35.39 (5.16) 12.56 16.81 7.85 53.67 (15.43) (13.27)
Top Gainer ITMG IJ Equity ADRO IJ Equity PTBA IJ Equity UNTR IJ Equity GGRM IJ Equity
Last 12,875 1,375 10,850 19,450 65,900
WoW% 18.12 14.11 12.73 9.89 6.29
Ytd% 124.89 166.99 139.78 14.75 19.82
Top Loser INCO IJ Equity PGAS IJ Equity BBNI IJ Equity SCMA IJ Equity CTRA IJ Equity
Last 2,670.00 2,600.00 5,300.00 2,680.00 1,535.00
WoW% (9.49) (9.41) (4.50) (4.29) (3.46)
Ytd% 63.30 (5.28) 6.21 (13.55) 5.79
Top Volume ANTM IJ Equity LPKR IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity PGAS IJ Equity ADRO IJ Equity
Last 800 970 4,200 2,600 1,375
Volume(Mn) 87.40 74.86 50.80 44.24 44.23
YTD% 154.78 (6.28) 35.88 (5.28) 166.99
Top Value BBRI IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity ASII IJ Equity BMRI IJ Equity BBCA IJ Equity
Last 11,975 4,200 8,200 10,900 15,800
Value(Bn) 309.91 213.34 206.87 157.20 145.38
YTD% 4.81 35.88 36.67 17.84 18.80
Oil (USD/bbl) Gold (USD tr.oz) Silver (USD tr.oz) Nickel (USD/mtrc ton) Tin (USD/mtrc ton) Copper (USD/mtrc ton) CPO (MYR/ton) Coal (USD/ton) * Natural Gas Corn Soybean Coffe Cotton Sugar Wheat Cocoa
OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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OSO Weekly 10 - 14 Oktober 2016
Market Review Selama sepekan kemarin IHSG hanya naik tipis sebesar 0.23% ke level 5,377.15. Mayoritas indeks sektoral ditutup menguat. Penguatan tertinggi dipimpin oleh indeks pertambangan dan industri dasar yang masing-masing menguat sebesar 4.27% dan 2.55%. Sementara sektor infrastruktur dan keuangan masing-masing terkoreksi sebesar 2.2% dan 1.1%. Beberapa saham yang menjandi top gainer selama sepekan kemarin diantaranya : ITMG, ADRO, PTBA dan UNTR. Sementara saham yang menjadi top loser yaitu ; INCO, PGAS, BBNI dan SCMA. Pergerakan indeks selama sepekan ini didominasi oleh sentimen dari eksternal, pelaku pasar cenderung wait and see terhadap data ketenagakerjaan AS. Adapun data dari domestik yang rilis selama sepekan kemarin diantaranya indeks kepercayaan konsumen bulan September yang turun menjadi 110 dari sebelumnya 113.3 dan Cadangan Devisa yang meningkat menjadi USS 115.67 miliar dari sebelumnya US$ 113.3 miliar. Global Review Sementara itu, indeks utama di Bursa AS selama sepekan kemarin mengalami koreksi. Indeks Dow Jones melemah 0.37% ke level 18,240.49, S&P 500 turun 0.67% ke level 2,153.74 dan Nasdaq terkoreksi 0.37% ke level 5,292.41. Terkoreksinya indeks di Bursa AS seiring dengan kekhawatiran pelaku pasar terhadap keputusan The Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga pada akhir tahun ini. Adapun beberapa data dari AS yang rilis hari ini diantaranya : indeks manufaktur AS yang meningkat menjadi 51.5 dari sebelumnya 50.4, defisit neraca perdagangan AS bulan Agustus yang melebar menjadi -US$ 40.7 miliar dari sebelumnya -39.5 miliar. Initial Jobless claims AS per 1 Oktober turun menjadi 249.000 dari sebelumnya 254.000 dan Tingkat pengangguran AS bulan September meningkat menjadi 5% dari sebelumnya 4.9%. Dari bursa Eropa mayoritas indeks utama ditutup menguat. indeks FTSE 100 naik 2.10% ke level 7,044.39, DAX menguat 0.82% ke level 10,490.86 dan CAC 40 terangkat 0.04% ke level 4,449.91. Sementara indeks Eurostoxx terkoreksi tipis 0.06% ke level 3,000.57. Pergerakan indeks di Bursa Eropa selama sepekan kemarin lebih dipengaruhi oleh kasus Deutche Bank terhadap Departemen kehakiman AS. Adapun beberapa data dari bursa Eropa yang kemarin rilis diantaranya : indeks manufaktur bulan September meningkat menjandi 55.4 dari sebelumnya 53.3, pengangguran bulan September turun menjadi 7.9% dari sebelumnya 8.3%, indeks penjualan ritel bulan Agustus naik menjandi 54.7 dari sebelumnya 56 dan produksi industri bulan Agustus turun -4.1% dari sebelumnya tumbuh 1.1%. Commodity Review Selama sepekan kemarin, mayoritas komoditas bergerak turun. Penurunan terdalam dipimpin oleh komoditas silver yang turun 6.30% ke level US$ 17.68 per troy ounce, diikuti oleh CPO dan emas masing-masing anjlok sebesar 4.02% dan 3.83%. Pelemahan yang terjadi pada komoditas CPO seiring dengan turunnya ekspor CPO dari Indonesia dan Malaysia, Sepanjang bulan September ekspor malaysia turun sebesar 15%. JCI Prediction Kami perkirakan selama sepekan kedepan indeks di Bursa AS akan bergerak menguat terbatas dikisaran 5,305-5420. Beberapa indikator ekonomi yang dapat diperhatikan hari ini antara lain : Dari AS : import price index, initial jobless claims, retail sales., producer price index. Dari kawasan Uni Eropa : trade balance, industrial production, consumer price index dan retail sales.
OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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Technical Analysis INCO Sepekan kemarin saham INCO bergerak dalam minor downtrend dengan koreksi lebih dari 10%. Saham ini ditutup menembus MA 60 Harian. Indikator stochastic oscillator bearish, RSI flat dan histogram MACD negatif.
Recommendation : Buy On Weakness Target Price Support Stop loss
: 2700 : 2640 : 2610
BBNI Empat hari berturut-turut pada perdagangan saham pekan lalu, saham BBNI mengalami koreksi dengan volume jual yang bervariasi. Terakhir saham ini ditutup membentuk candle bearish engulfing. Indikator stochastic oscillator bearish, RSI flat dan histogram MACD negatif.
Recommendation : Buy On Weakness Target Price Support Stop loss
: 5350 : 5250 : 5200
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TLKM Saham TLKM bergerak dalam tren melemah sepanjang pekan kemarin. Candle bearish engulfing terbentuk atas saham ini di akhir pekan. Indikator stochatic oscillator bearish, RSI flat dan histogram MACD negatif.
Recommendation : Buy On Weakness Target Price Support Stop loss
: 4240 : 4160 : 4110
SCMA Aksi jual terhadap saham SCMA di akhir pekan terlihat mulai berkurang. Pada perdagangan Jumat kemarin saham ini berakhir membentuk candle bearish engulfing. Indikator stochatic oscillator bearish, RSI flat dan histogram MACD negatif.
Recommendation : Buy Target Price Support Stop loss
: 2700 : 2650 : 2620
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OSO Weekly 10 - 14 Oktober 2016
Economic Calendar
Date Agenda 10-Oct-16 Balance of Trade AUG 10-Oct-16 Eurogroup Meeting 10-Oct-16 Industrial Production MoM AUG 11-Oct-16 Current Account AUG 11-Oct-16 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index OCT 11-Oct-16 ZEW Current Conditions OCT 11-Oct-16 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index OCT 11-Oct-16 Fed Labor Market Conditions Index SEP 12-Oct-16 Machinery Orders MoM AUG 12-Oct-16 Industrial Production YoY AUG 12-Oct-16 Industrial Production MoM AUG 12-Oct-16 JOLTs Job Openings AUG 13-Oct-16 FOMC Minutes 13-Oct-16 Balance of Trade SEP 13-Oct-16 Exports YoY SEP 13-Oct-16 Imports YoY SEP 13-Oct-16 Tertiary Industry Index MoM AUG 13-Oct-16 BoJ Monthly Report 13-Oct-16 Inflation Rate YoY Final SEP 13-Oct-16 Export Prices MoM SEP 13-Oct-16 Import Prices MoM SEP 13-Oct-16 Initial Jobless Claims OCT/08 13-Oct-16 EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change OCT/07 13-Oct-16 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 7/OCT 13-Oct-16 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 7/OCT 14-Oct-16 30-Year Bond Auction 14-Oct-16 Monthly Budget Statement SEP 14-Oct-16 Inflation Rate YoY SEP 14-Oct-16 Inflation Rate MoM SEP 14-Oct-16 PPI YoY SEP 14-Oct-16 Construction Output YoY AUG 14-Oct-16 Balance of Trade AUG 14-Oct-16 PPI MoM SEP 14-Oct-16 Core PPI MoM SEP 14-Oct-16 Retail Sales MoM SEP 14-Oct-16 Retail Sales ex Autos MoM SEP 14-Oct-16 Business Inventories MoM AUG 14-Oct-16 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel OCT Sumber :Trading economic & Bloomberg
Country EUR EUR ITL JPY EUR EUR EUR USD JPY EUR EUR USD USD CNY CNY CNY JPY JPY EUR USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD CNY CNY CNY GBP EUR USD USD USD USD USD USD
Prior €19.5B
Consensus €20B
0.40% ¥1938B 5.4 55.1 0.5 -0.7 4.90% -0.50% -1.10% 5.871M
-0.10% ¥ 1539B
$52.05B -2.80% 1.50% 0.30%
$53B -3% 1%
0.40% -0.80% -0.20% 249K 80Bcf -2.976M 222K 2.48% $-107B 1.30% 0.10% -0.80% -1.50% €25.3B 0.00% 0.10% -0.30% -0.10% 0.00% 91.2
0.70% 0.00% 0.00% 252K
55.5 4 -5.50% 1.40% 1.20%
1.60% 0.30% -0.30% 1.50% €15.3B 0.20% 0.20% 0.60% 0.40% 0.10% 92
OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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10 - 14 Oktober 2016 RESEARCH TEAM Supriyadi (
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