OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
STOCK
OSO Weekly
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26-30 September 2016
JCI
121.14
5,388.91 Previous Highest Vol (bn) Nett Foreign 1W Return YTD ` Indices Americas Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq EIDO EMEA Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei Shanghai TWSE SET KOSPI PCOMP KLSE ST - Times Sensex Hangseng Sektoral AGRICULTURE MINING MISC INDUSTRY BASIC INDUSTRY CONSUMER GOODS PROPERTY INFRASTRUKTUR FINANCE MANUFAKTURE TRADE LQ 45 SRI-KEHATI Currency IDR / USD IDR / AUD IDR / EUR IDR / SGD IDR / JPY IDR / GBP
5,267.77 5,388.91 35.84 (215.9) 17.33
2.30%
Lowest Val IDR bn Mkt Cap IDR tr NetForgYTDRbn Month to date (%)
5,302.49 35,648.42 5,805.60 34,357.64 0.05
Last
WoW%
YTD%
United States United States United States United States
18,261.45 2,164.69 5,305.75 26.25
0.76 1.19 1.17 3.18
4.80 5.91 5.96 25.78
Euro Area United Kingdom France Germany
3,032.31 6,909.43 4,488.69 10,626.97
3.31 2.97 3.61 3.41
(7.20) 10.69 (3.20) (1.08)
Japanese China Taiwan Thailand Korea Philippine Malaysia Singapore India Hong Kong
16,754.02 3,033.90 9,284.62 1,492.88 2,054.07 7,723.60 1,670.99 2,856.95 28,668.22 23,686.48
0.84 1.03 4.29 0.93 2.74 2.25 1.09 1.04 0.24 1.50
(11.98) (14.28) 11.35 15.91 4.73 11.10 (1.27) (0.89) 9.77 8.09
Last 1,804.77 1,147.30 1,414.03 515.25 2,513.84 566.59 1,112.46 799.62 1,434.83 855.31 933.37 325.22
WoW% (1.09) 1.30 6.66 2.26 2.10 2.37 2.58 2.00 2.96 1.45 2.84 3.35
YTD% 4.97 41.45 33.74 26.34 21.74 15.41 13.36 16.39 24.59 0.68 17.85 22.65
Last 13,081 9,963 14,658 9,619 130 17,007
WoW% 0.57 (0.90) 0.81 0.28 (0.44) 2.14
YTD% 5.40 1.31 2.75 1.52 (11.53) 20.32
Global Macro Eco United States Euro Area United Kingdom Japan China Singapore
CB Rate (%) 0.50 0.25 0.10 4.35 0.08
CPI YoY (%) 1.10 0.20 0.60 (0.40) 1.30 (0.30)
GDP YoY (%) 1.20 1.60 2.20 0.80 6.70 2.10
Domestic Macro Eco Jibor InflasiYoY InflasiMoM BI Rate GDP Growth YoY Foreign Reserve (Bn)
Last 4.70 2.79 (0.02) 6.50 5.18 113.54
WoW% (5.84)
YTD% (38.08)
Sources : Bloomberg
Government Bonds 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 30 Year
Yield% 6.16 6.54 6.63 6.72 6.72 6.85 6.93 7.01 7.03 6.87 7.23 7.36 7.59
WoW% (3.24) (0.12) (2.04) (1.45) (1.29) (1.44) (1.76) (1.50) (1.32) (2.14) (1.20) (1.10) (0.76)
YTD% (23.82) (24.08) (25.25) (24.15) (23.85) (23.33) (22.44) (22.02) (20.62) (21.48) (19.37) (17.80) (18.07)
Commodities Oil (USD/bbl) Gold (USD tr.oz) Silver (USD tr.oz) Nickel (USD/mtrc ton) Tin (USD/mtrc ton) Copper (USD/mtrc ton) CPO (MYR/ton) Coal (USD/ton) * Natural Gas Corn Soybean Coffe Cotton Sugar Wheat Cocoa
Last 44.92 1,339.08 19.76 10,660.00 19,645.00 4,855.00 2,863.00 61.80 2.98 335.00 303.20 151.40 69.08 22.13 404.75 2,852.00
WoW% 3.74 1.98 2.88 9.61 2.85 1.40 1.06 (0.96) 1.40 (0.67) (2.79) 2.92 1.98 1.61 0.19 1.75
Ytd% 21.27 26.16 43.16 20.86 34.97 3.19 19.39 (1.98) 27.30 (6.62) 14.72 19.49 9.17 45.21 (13.88) (11.18)
Top Gainer TBIG IJ Equity LPPF IJ Equity MPPA IJ Equity INDF IJ Equity WSKT IJ Equity
Last 6,100 19,200 1,985 8,875 2,650
WoW% 5.63 4.35 9.97 4.72 -
Ytd% 3.83 9.09 8.77 71.50 58.68
Top Loser WIKA IJ Equity ANTM IJ Equity BMTR IJ Equity INCO IJ Equity ADRO IJ Equity
Last 2,790.00 625.00 845.00 2,620.00 1,165.00
WoW% (13.89) (10.71) (10.11) (9.66) (8.27)
Ytd% 5.68 99.04 (23.18) 60.24 126.21
Top Volume TLKM IJ Equity BSDE IJ Equity PWON IJ Equity LPKR IJ Equity ADRO IJ Equity
Last 4,230 2,210 680 1,115 1,210
Volume(Mn) 84.25 20.67 42.44 29.70 43.31
YTD% 36.85 22.78 37.10 7.73 134.95
Top Value TLKM IJ Equity BBCA IJ Equity ASII IJ Equity BBRI IJ Equity BMRI IJ Equity
Last 4,230 15,475 8,600 12,075 11,500
Value(Bn) 356.38 344.35 306.10 268.78 230.04
YTD% 36.85 16.35 43.33 5.69 24.32
OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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OSO Weekly 26-30 September 2016
Market Review Selama sepekankemarin IHSG bergerak menguat 2.30% ke level 5,388.91. Hampir seluruh indeks ditutup menguat, hanya sektor perkebunan yang bergerak melemah. Sepekan kemarin sektor perkebunan turun 1.09%. Sementara semua sektor mengalami penguatan selama sepekan. Sektor aneka industri memimpin penguatan dengan naik 6.66% , diikuti oleh sektor manufaktur dan infrastruktur yang masingmasing menguat 2.96% dan 2.58%. Penguatan yang terjadi selama sepekan kemarin didominasi oleh optimisme pelaku pasar domestik terhadap pencapaian tax amnesty, selain itu keputusan BOJ dan The Fed untuk tetap mempertahankan suku bunganya juga menjadi katalis positif pada perdagangan selama sepekan kemarin. Adapun kebijakan bank Indonesia terkait penurunan suku bunga BI 7 days repo rate dari sebelumnya 5.25% menjadi 5% juga menjadi sentimen positif pada akhir pekan kemarin. Global Market Sementara itu dari bursa Wall Street, sepekan kemarin bergerak menguat. Indeks Dow Jones naik 0.76% ke level 18,261.45, S&P 500 menguat 1.19% ke level 2,164.69 dan Nasdaq menguat 1.17% ke level 5,305.75. Penguatan yang terjadi selama sepekan kemarin didominasi oleh kenaikan indeks di Bursa AS yang signfikan selama 2 hari berturut-turut setelah The Fed memutuskan untuk tidak menaikkan suku bunganya. Beberapa data ekonomi AS yang kemarin rilis diantaranya indeks perumahan baru di bulan Agustus yang mengalami kenaikan menjadi 1.14 juta dari sebelumnya 1.21 juta diikuti oleh perizinan pembangunan bulan Agustus yang membaik menjadi -0.4% (MoM) dari sebelumnya -0.8% (MoM). Selain itu data initial Jobless Claims AS per 17 September mengalami penurunan sebesar 8000 menjadi 252.000 dari sebelumnya 260.000. Dari Bursa Eropa mayoritas indeks begerak dalam zona hijau. Indeks Euro Stoxx menguat 3.31% ke level 3,052.31, FTSE 100 naik 2.97% ke level 6,409.43 dan CAC 40 naik 3.61% ke level 4,488.69. Pada awal pekan kemarin pergerakan indeks di Bursa Eropa pun terlihat wait and see menunggu keputusan dari Bank Of Japan dan The Fed dalam penentuan suku bunga, berakhirnya keputusan kedua negara tersebut yang sesuai ekspektasi pelaku pasar membuat rally saham di Eropa pun ikut melaju kencang. Namun, ini hanya sementara dikarenakan pada akhir pekan bursa Eropa ditutup terkoreksi seiring dengan sikap antisipasi pelaku pasar atas kenaikan suku bunga The Fed pada akhir tahun ini. Pelaku pasar lebih cenderung untuk memperhatikan data ekonomi AS yang akan rilis pada beberapa waktu mendatang. Commodities Dari bursa komdoditas, harga komoditas minyak bergerak mixed. Komoditas minyak mencatatkan kenaikan sebesar 3.74% selama sepekan , setelah AS melaporkan penurunan persediaan minyak sebesar 6.2 juta barrel pada pekan lalu yang membuat harga minyak sempat mengalami penguatan. Namun, perang dingin antara beberapa negara pengahasil minyak terbesar lain seperti, Arab, Rusia dan Iran yang diperkirakan tidak akan memangkas produksinya minyaknya membuat pergerakan minyak kembali tetekan. Negara yang tergabung dalam OPEC akan bertemu di Algeria pada 26-28 September. Namun pertemuan tersebut bukan untuk mengambil keputusan melainkan hanya untuk konsultasi. Berbeda dengan komoditas nikel, harga nikel dan logam lainnya mengalami penguatan setelah The Fed memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga. Komoditas nikel menguat 9.61% ke level 10,660 per metric ton. JCI Prediction Kami perkirakan selama sepekan ini IHSG akan bergerak tertekan akibat sentimen dari global, sehingga pelaku pasar cenderung wait and see. Beberapa data ekonomi yang dapat diperhatikan diantaranya : new home sales AS bulan Agustus, Consumer Confidence AS bula September, indeks Jasa AS bulan September, pertumbuhan GDP AS kuartal II dan pending home sales AS bulan Agustus. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic oscillator cenderung melemah, meskipun RSI kuat dan histogram MACD positif. Kami perkirakan sepanjang pekan ini IHSG akan bergerak dikisaran 5.210-5.410.
OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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26-30 September 2016
Technical Analysis ADHI Sejak September saham ADHI bergerak dalam tren melemah dan bergerak di area lower Bollinger band. Indikator MACD Histogram negative, MFI dan RSI bearish diikuti Stochastic Oscillator yang melemah. Recommendation : BOW Target Price Support Stop loss
: 2420 : 2320 : 2310
AALI Beberapa terakhir di akhir pekan kemarin saham AALI mengalami koreksi akibat aksi jual para investor. Harga saham AALI berada di area lower Bollinger band dan MA 100 Harian. Indikator MACD Histogram masih terlihat bergerak negative diikuti dengan MFI dan RSI yang melemah. Selain itu, Stochastic Oscillator juga terlihat masih bearish. Recommendation : BOW Target Price Support Stop loss
: 15750 : 15150 : 15075
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26-30 September 2016 PTPP Tiga hari terakhir pada pekan kemarin saham PTPP membentuk three black crows dan swing yang mengindikasikan aka nada penurunan kembali. Indikator MACD Histogram negative dan RSI juga mengalami penurunan didukung Stochastic Oscillator yang melemah. Sementara itu, MFI terlihat flat. Recommendation : BOW Target Price Support Stop loss
: 4340 : 4160 : 4140
ASII Saham ASII bergerak dalam fase uptrend selama sepekan kemarin. Namun, di akhir pekan saham ini justru terkena aksi jual investor. Indikator MACD Histogram masih terlihat positif. Namun, indikator MFI dan RSI justru melemah diikuti dengan Stochastic Oscillator yang berpotensi deadcross. Recommendation : BOW Target Price Support Stop loss
: 8775 : 8425 : 8400
OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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OSO Weekly 26-30 September 2016
Economic Calendar Date 26-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16
Agenda Japan Coincident Index Final JUL Japan Leading Economic Index Final JUL Italy Retail Sales MoM JUL Italy Retail Sales YoY JUL US New Home Sales MoM AUG US New Home Sales AUG US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index SEP Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Germany Retail Sales MoM AUG Germany Retail Sales YoY AUG Euro Area Loan Growth YoY AUG Euro Area M3 Money Supply YoY AUG Italy Industrial Orders MoM JUN Italy Industrial Orders YoY JUN Italy Industrial Sales MoM JUN Italy Industrial Sales YoY JUN US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUL US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM JUL US Markit Composite PMI Flash SEP US Markit Services PMI Flash SEP US CB Consumer Confidence SEP US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index SEP China Westpac MNI Consumer Sentiment IndicatorSEP Germany GfK Consumer Confidence OCT France Consumer Confidence SEP Italy Business Confidence SEP Italy Consumer Confidence SEP US MBA Mortgage Applications 23/SEP US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate 23/SEP US Durable Goods Orders MoM AUG US Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM AUG US Durable Goods Orders ex Tansp MoM AUG US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 23/SEP US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 23/SEP Japan Retail Sales MoM AUG Japan Retail Sales YoY AUG Germany Unemployment Rate Harmonised AUG Germany Unemployment Rate SEP UK Mortgage Lending AUG UK Mortgage Approvals AUG Euro Area Business Confidence SEP Euro Area Services Sentiment SEP Euro Area Consumer Confidence Final SEP Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel SEP Germany Inflation Rate MoM Prel SEP US Continuing Jobless Claims SEP/17 US GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q2 US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 US Core PCE Prices QoQ Final Q2 US PCE Prices QoQ Final Q2 US Initial Jobless Claims SEP/24 US Pending Home Sales MoM AUG US Pending Home Sales YoY AUG US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change 23/SEP UK Gfk Consumer Confidence SEP Japan Core Inflation Rate YoY AUG Japan Household Spending YoY AUG Japan Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY AUG Japan Tokyo CPI YoY SEP Japan Tokyo Core CPI YoY SEP Japan Household Spending MoM AUG Japan Inflation Rate YoY AUG Japan Inflation Rate MoM AUG Japan Unemployment Rate AUG Japan Industrial Production YoY Prel AUG Japan Industrial Production MoM Prel AUG China Caixin Manufacturing PMI SEP Japan Construction Orders YoY AUG UK Nationwide Housing Prices YoY SEP UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM SEP France Inflation Rate YoY Prel SEP France Inflation Rate MoM Prel SEP France Household Consumption MoM AUG France PPI MoM AUG Indonesia M2 Money Supply YoY AUG Italy Unemployment Rate AUG UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 UK GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash SEP Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash SEP Euro Area Unemployment Rate AUG Italy Inflation Rate YoY Prel SEP Italy Inflation Rate MoM Prel SEP Italy PPI MoM JUL Italy PPI YoY JUL US Core PCE Price Index YoY AUG US Core PCE Price Index MoM AUG US PCE Price Index MoM AUG US PCE Price Index YoY AUG US Personal Income MoM AUG US Personal Spending MoM AUG US Chicago PMI SEP US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final SEP
Sumber :Trading economic & Bloomberg
Country JPY JPY ITL ITL USD USD USD JPY EUR EUR EUR EUR ITL ITL ITL ITL USD USD USD USD USD USD CNY EUR EUR ITL ITL USD USD USD USD USD USD USD JPY JPY EUR EUR GBP GBP EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD GBP JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY CNY JPY GBP GBP EUR EUR EUR EUR IDR ITL GBP GBP EUR EUR EUR ITL ITL ITL ITL USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD
Prior 111.1 99.2 0.2% 0.8% 12.4% 654K -6.2 1.7% -1.5% 1.8% 4.8% -2.8% -4.2% -1.1% -2.7% 5.1% 0.8% 51.5 51 101.1 -11 111.5 10.2 97 101.1 109.2 -7.3% 3.7% 4.4% 3.8% 1.5% -6.2M -3204K 1.4% -0.2% 4.2% 6.1% £2.7B 60.91K 0.02 10 -8.5 0.4% 0.0% 2113K 0.5% 0.8% 2.1% 0.2% 252K 1.3% 1.4% 52Bcf -7 -0.5% -0.5% 0.3% -0.5% -0.4% 2.5% -0.4% -0.2% 3.0% -4.2% -0.4% 50.0 -10.9% 5.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 8.1% 11.4% 0.4% 2% 0.8% 0.2% 10.1% -0.1% 0.2% 0.5% -3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 51.5 89.8
Consensus 112.8 100
601K
5.10%
99.8
-1.50% 0.10%
2.30% 1.20% 1.80% 2.00%
0.60% 2.20%
0.20% 0.20% 52.5 90
OSO SECURITIES MEMBER OF INDONESIA
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26-30 September 2016 RESEARCH TEAM Supriyadi (
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Research Analyst
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Research Analyst
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Rifqiyati (
[email protected])
Riska Afriani (
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