Wednesday, February 04, 2015
DAILY RESEARCH
Sinarmas Investment Research/+6221 3925550/
[email protected] IDX S ta tis tic s
JCI Index
Clo s in g 5,2 91.7 2
J CI
5,320 5,310
Tra ns a c tio n Va lu e (Rp tn )
5 .7 5 4
Tra ns a c tio n Vo lu me (mn s h a re s)
5 ,5 4 8
Fo re ign Ne t Bu y (S e ll) (Rp b n)
5,300
33 5 .2 8
Fo re ign Ne t Bu y (S e ll) YTD (Rp tn )
5,290
0 .5 8
a s p e rc e n ta g e o f la st ye a r's
5,280
(0 .6 6 )
To ta l Ma rke t Ca p ita liza tio n (Rp tn )
5,270
Ke y In d ic e s
Last Price
Previous day
Clo s in g
Closed at 5290.83 J CI
Previous Day: Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Selasa (3/2), IHSG naik sebanyak 15,48 poin (0,29%) ke level 5291,72. Ada sebanyak 157 saham yang naik, 120 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 110 saham yang stagnan. LQ45 naik 5,20 (0,57%) ke level 913,59. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor konstruksi naik 1,95%, sektor keuangan naik 0,92%, dan sektor infrastruktur naik 0,68%. Sektor-sektor di zona merah adalah sektor agrikultur turun 2,07%, sektor aneka industri turun 1,28%, dan sektor manufaktur turun 0,37%. Total perdagangan sebanyak Rp 5,754 triliun. Foreign net buy sebesar Rp 335,28 miliar. Indeks Hang Seng menguat 0,29%. Indeks Strait times jatuh 0,33%. Indeks Nikkei berkurang 1,27%. Indeks shanghai menanjak 2,45%. Today’s Market: Secara teknikal indeks hari Rabu (4/2) diperkirakan akan bergerak menguat di level 5279-5325. China akan merilis data HSBC China Services PMI yang diperkirakan ke level 53,21 dari sebelumnya 53,4. Dari Eropa akan merilis data markit services PMI yang diperkirakan naik 0,7 ke level 52,3. Harga minyak dunia yang menguat turut memberikan sentimen terhadap indeks.
0.2 9
1.2
LQ4 5
913 .6
0.5 7
1.7
EIDO
2 7 .5 0
2.0 8
0 .2
IDX
2 4 .5
2.0 0
0 .8
17 ,6 6 6 .4
1.7 6
(0 .9 )
S &P 50 0
2 ,0 5 0 .0
1.4 4
(0 .4 )
NAS DAQ
4 ,7 2 7 .7
1.0 9
(0 .2 )
FTS E
6 ,87 1.8
1.3 2
4 .7
NIKKEI
17 ,3 3 5 .9
(1.2 7)
1.2
HANG S ENG
2 4 ,4 8 4 .7
0.2 9
4 .0
3 ,4 0 8 .0
(0.4 5)
1.7
1,817 .0
2.0 0
3 .2
Ch a n g e %
YTD Ch a n g e %
DOW J ONES
S TRAITS TIMES KLS E FO REX
Ra te (IDR)
US D/IDR
12 ,65 7
(0.2 3)
(1.6 )
EUR/IDR
14 ,33 6
(0 .2 1)
4 .3
J P Y/IDR
10 8
0.0 6
(3 .1)
S GD/IDR
9 ,35 3
(0.2 0)
0 .2
AUD/IDR
9 ,89 7
0.5 7
3 .2
GBP /IDR
19,0 12
(0.4 0)
0 .9
CRUDE OIL (US D)/BARREL COAL (US D) / MT NATURAL GAS (US D) / mmBtu
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
P ric e
1 Da y Re tu rn %
YTD Ch a n g e %
5 3 .1
7.0 2
(2 .4 )
5 7 .4
(2.3 0)
(17 .9 )
2 .8
2.7 6
(4 .3 )
1,2 6 0 .4
(1.10)
6 .1
NICKEL (US D) / MT
15 ,310 .0
(0 .10)
1.7
TIN (US D) / MT
18 ,8 5 5 .0
(0.8 9)
(1.9 )
GOLD (US D) / OUNCE
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2014: ROTI 1,460
YTD Ch a n g e %
5 ,29 1.7
Co mmo d itie s
Top Technical Buys: BSDE, ASRI, SMGR, BJBR
4 ,99 5 .4 4 1 Da y Re tu rn %
CP O (MYR) / MT
2 ,14 7 .0
NA
2 0 2 .5
2.5 8
4 .2
WHEAT/BUS HEL
513 .8
4.2 6
(12 .8 )
CORN/BUS HEL
3 8 5 .8
4.3 3
(2 .9 )
RUBBER (J P Y)/KG
(6 .0 )
Wednesday, February 04, 2015
CORPORATE & INDUSTRY NEWS •
•
•
•
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA) mengalokasikan belanja modal tahun ini senilai US$ 200 juta, turun 26% dari tahun 2014. Perusahaan akan menggunakan 70% dari dana tersebut untuk segmen usaha kelistrikan, yaitu pengembangan dan kelanjutan proyek pembangkit listrik yang tengah dikerjakan oleh anak usahanya, PT DSSP Power Sumsel. Sedangkan sisa dana akan digunakan untuk operational expenditure untuk segmen usaha lain, seperti coal mining, trading, dan infrastruktur multimedia. (Neutral) Source: Indonesia Finance Today PT Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA) akan membangun tiga hotel di beberapa lokasi di Indonesia pada tahun ini. Salah satunya yaitu proyek hotel bintang lima di Tabanan, Bali dengan perkiraan kebutuhan investasi mencapai Rp 1 triliun. Selain itu, perusahaan juga tengah menyelesaikan tahap pembangunan dua hotel lain yaitu hotel budget di Yogyakarta dan Bintaro (Tangerang). (Neutral) Source: Indonesia Finance Today PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA) tengah menjajaki kerja sama dengan Islamic Development Bank (IDB) untuk menggarap proyek di Maroko. Perusahaan berencana untuk memperoleh kontrak pengerjaan konstruksi, serta peluang untuk terlibat berinvestasi di dalam proyek dengan nilai perkiraan mencapai Rp 2 triliun. Perusahaan sendiri tengah menargetkan empat proyek di luar negeri dengan total nilai Rp 4 triliun pada tahun ini. (Neutral) Source: Bisnis Indonesia PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur Tbk (BJTM) membukukan laba sebelum pajak sebesar Rp 1,38 triliun, meningkat 19,65% yoy. Selama tahun 2014, perusahaan juga mencatatkan kenaikan total aset menjadi Rp 38,04 triliun atau naik 15,11% yoy. Sedangkan penghimpunan dana pihak ketiga (DPK) serta penyaluran kredit juga masing – masing mengalami peningkatan sebesar 16,48% dan 18,61% yoy. (Positive) Source: Investor Daily
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
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Wednesday, February 04, 2015
TRADING VIEW TRADING VIEW Wednesday, February 04 , 2015
These recommendations are more based on technical and just for one day trading RESEARCH DEPARTMENT TICKER
RECOMMENDATION
PRICE
ENTRY
EXIT
S2
S1
R1
R2
EXPLANATION
AGRICULTURE AALI
Buy On Weakness
23400
23300
23600
23150
23300
23600
BWPT
Trading Sell
347
347
343
339
343
354
23800 Macd : downtrend
LSIP
Trading Sell
1785
1785
1775
1765
1775
1800
1825 Rsi : downtrend
361 Macd : downtrend
BANK & FINANCE BMRI
Buy on Weakness
11350
11250
11400
11200
11250
11400
11500 Long legged doji
BBRI
Buy on Weakness
11750
11650
11800
11575
11650
11800
11900 Doji
BBNI
Trading Buy
6425
6425
6500
6200
6350
6500
BBCA
Buy on Weakness
13500
13300
13550
13200
13300
13550
13700 Morning star
7750 14650 56450 36725 3850
6650 Macd : uptrend
CONSUMER GOODS INDF ICBP GGRM UNVR CPIN
Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness Trading Sell Trading Buy Trading Sell
7450 14300 55700 36375 3780
7350 14150 55700 36375 3780
7600 14500 55500 36550 3760
7250 14050 55350 36150 3730
7350 14150 55500 36325 3760
7600 14500 56100 36550 3820
MAIN
Buy on Weakness
2125
2115
2140
2100
2115
2140
Macd : downtrend Black spinning top Macd : downtrend Stoc osc : uptrend Macd : downtrend
2160 Stoc osc : downtrend
BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY ASII
Trading Sell
7625
7625
7550
7450
7550
7750
SMGR
Trading Buy
14675
14675
14750
14550
14625
14750
14825 Morning star
7850 Rsi : downtrend
INTP
Trading Buy
23150
23150
23350
22850
23100
23350
23450 Rsi : uptrend
INFRASTRUCTURE TLKM
Buy on Weakness
2825
2815
2835
2800
2815
2835
2850 Dragonfly doji
PGAS
Trading Buy
5200
5200
5250
5025
5100
5250
5325 Morning star
JSMR
Trading Sell
7125
7125
7050
6975
7050
7225
7300 Macd : downtrend
TBIG
Trading Sell
9400
9400
9300
9225
9300
9500
9650 Stoc osc : downtrend
MAPI
Buy on Weakness
5875
5800
5950
5700
5800
5950
6100 White spinning top
RALS
Buy on Weakness
830
820
845
810
820
845
860 Stoc osc : uptrend
ACES
Buy on Weakness
750
740
765
720
740
765
MPPA
Trading Buy
3770
3770
3810
3700
3750
3810
3830 Rsi : reversal
PTBA
Buy on Weakness
11425
11350
11500
11250
11350
11500
11600 Rsi : reversal
ADRO
Buy on Weakness
990
980
1005
965
980
1005
ITMG
Buy on Weakness
16650
16550
16900
16350
16550
16900
ANTM
Buy on Weakness
1055
1045
1065
1035
1045
1065
TINS
Trading Sell
1150
1150
1140
1125
1140
1165
UNTR
Buy on Weakness
17900
17750
18000
17600
17750
18000
RETAIL
775 Black spinning top
MINING
1020 Rsi : downtrend 17125 Rsi : reversal 1080 Macd : downtrend 1180 Stoc osc : downtrend 18125 Rsi : reversal
PROPERTY ASRI
Trading Buy
605
605
620
585
595
620
LPKR
Buy on Weakness
1115
1100
1125
1085
1100
1125
1135 Rsi : reversal
CTRA
Trading Buy
1490
1490
1500
1450
1465
1500
1525 Macd : reversal
APLN
Trading Buy
460
460
465
442
451
465
474 Rsi : uptrend
SMRA
Trading Buy
1670
1670
1700
1635
1660
1700
1730 Rsi : uptrend
SSIA
Buy on Weakness
1095
1080
1110
1060
1080
1110
1130 Rsi : uptrend
BSDE
Trading Buy
2090
2090
2120
2035
2065
2120
2150 Morning star
WIKA
Trading Buy
3815
3815
3855
3735
3775
3855
3895 Macd : uptrend
PTPP
Trading Buy
4120
4120
4150
4040
4100
4150
4210 Macd : uptrend
ADHI
Trading Buy
3800
3800
3850
3775
3790
3850
3910 Stoc osc : uptrend
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
635 White spinning top
3
Wednesday, February 04, 2015 Global Equity Indices Description
YTD Change %
LQ45 Nikkei 225 JCI FTSE 100 ASX 200 DJIA S&P500 STI CAC 40 Shanghai Composite DAX KOSPI Hang Seng Euro Stoxx
4-Feb-15
1.7 1.2 1.2 4.7 6.5 (0.9) (0.4) 1.8 9.5 (0.9) 11.1 2.7 4.0 8.5
Forward 2014 P/E Ratio (Best Est.)
914 17,664 5,292 6,872 5,764 17,666 2,050 3,424 4,678 3,205 10,891 1,968 24,555 3,414
15.8 19.0 15.4 15.5 16.4 16.3 17.1 14.0 15.1 12.2 14.1 11.3 11.4 14.6
Selected Indonesian Equities Description AALI ADRO AKRA ANTM ASII ASRI BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BDMN BHIT BKSL BMRI BMTR BSDE BUMI BWPT CPIN EXCL GGRM GIAA HRUM
YTD Change %
4-Feb-15
(3.5) (4.8) 11.3 (0.9) 2.7 8.0 2.9 5.3 0.9 (17.0) 6.1 (3.5) 9.6 5.3 28.8 15.8 30.0 (13.3) 0.0 (4.3) (8.2) 1.8 (6.6)
23,400 ICBP 990 IMAS 4,585 INCO 1,055 INDF 7,625 INDY 605 INTP 13,500 ITMG 6,425 JSMR 11,750 KLBF 1,000 LPKR 4,800 LSIP 279 MAIN 114 MAPI 11,350 MNCN 1,835 PGAS 2,090 PTBA 104 SMCB 347 SMGR 3,780 SSIA 4,655 TLKM 55,700 UNTR 565 UNVR 1,550 JAKPROP INDEX JAKBIND INDEX
YTD Change % 9.2 (0.6) (7.2) 10.4 (4.3) (7.4) 8.3 1.1 (0.3) 9.3 (5.6) (0.2) 15.8 15.4 (13.3) (8.6) (12.4) (9.4) 2.3 (1.4) 3.2 12.6
4-Feb-15 14,300 3,975 3,365 7,450 488 23,150 16,650 7,125 1,825 1,115 1,785 2,125 5,875 2,930 5,200 11,425 1,915 14,675 1,095 2,825 17,900 36,375
JAKFIN INDEX
Sectors Description
Description
1-mth Return %
Property Basic Industry Trade Finance Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Infrastructure Agriculture Mining
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
6.8 (4.5) 1.2 1.9 3.5 2.4 (3.6) (7.2) (2.7)
JAKCONS INDEX JAKMIND INDEX JAKINFR INDEX JAKAGRI INDEX JAKMINE INDEX
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Wednesday, February 04, 2015 Dividend Ticker BIPI
Status
DPS (IDR)
Final
1
Cum Date
Ex Date
13 Januari 2015
14 Januari 2015
Recording
Payment
16 Januari 2015
30 Januari 2015
Rights Issue Ticker WOMF
Ratio
Price (Rp)
27:20
135
Cum Date 28 January 2015
Global Reference Rates
EX Date 29 January 2015
Trading 4 February –11 February 2015
FOREX
%
Rate (USD)
Change %
FED Rate
0.25
USDIDR
12,595
BI Rate
7.75
USDEUR
0.87
0.10
ECB Rate
0.05
USDJPY
118
(0.24)
BOJ Rate
0.10
USDSGD
1.35
0.03
BOE Rate
0.50
USDAUD
1.28
(0.13)
PBOC Rate
5.60
USDGBP
0.66
0.03
Dec-14
0.49
Description
Jan-15
Inflation YTD (%)
(0.24)
8.36
JIBOR (IDR) (%)
8.15
Inflation YOY (%)
6.96
8.36
LIBOR (GBP) (%)
0.96
Lending & Deposit Rates
Inflation MOM (%)
(0.24)
2.46
SIBOR (USD) (%)
1.46
Foreign Reserves (USD bn)
111.86
111.14
INDOGB 5Y YIELD (%)
6.86
GDP YOY Growth Rate 3Q14 (%)
5.01
INDOGB 10Y YIELD (%)
7.02
GDP Growth Rate 2014 (%)
2.62
INDOGB 15Y YIELD (%)
7.17
Dual Listed
MACRO INDICATORS
Price (IDR)
Change %
TLKM (US)
2,695.33
0.00
ANTM (GR)
910.06
0.00
2014
2015
APBNP
APBN
GDP Growth (%, YoY)
5,5
5,8
Inflation (%, YoY)
5,3
4,4
11.600
11.900
3 Months SPN (%)
6.0
6.0
Indonesian Crude Oil (USD/barrel)
105
105
Oil Lifting ( thousands barrel/day)
818
900
Gas Lifting (thousands, BOE/day)
1.224
1.248
Total State Budget (in IDR trillion)
1,635
1,793
Exchange rate (USD/IDR)
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
5
Wednesday, February 04, 2015 http://www.sinarmassekuritas.co.id
EQUITY RESEARCH ANALYST James Wahjudi Coal and Mining T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 611
[email protected]
ANALYST Evan Hadiwidjaja Banking and Cement T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 610
[email protected]
JUNIOR ANALYST Wilbert Consumer goods and Retail T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 273
[email protected]
TECHNICAL ANALYST Eddy Wijaya T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 159
[email protected]
DISCLAIMER This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without no-
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