Thursday, December 19, 2013
Sinarmas Investment Research/ 62 21 3925550/
[email protected]
JCI Index
DAILY RESEARCH
IDX Statistics
Closing
JCI
4,196.28
Transaction Value (Rp tn)
6.781
4230 Transaction Volume (mn shares)
4210
7,119
Foreign Net Buy (Sell) (Rp bn)
280.38
Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD (Rp tn)
(18.35)
as percentage of last year's
4190
(1.92)
Total Market Capitalization (Rp tn)
4170 Key Indices
Last Price
Previous day
Closing
Closed at 4196.28 JCI
Previous Day: Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Rabu (18/12), IHSG naik sebanyak 13,936 poin (0,33%) ke level 4196,282. Ada sebanyak 114 saham yang naik, 116 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 116 saham yang stagnan. Total perdagangan hari ini sebanyak Rp 6,781 triliun. LQ45 naik 3,363 poin (0,48%) ke level 697,015. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor agrikultur naik 1,76%, sektor industri dasar naik 1,16%, dan sektor pertambangan naik 0,91%. Foreign net buy sebesar Rp 280,38 miliar. Indeks Nikkei menguat 2,02%. Indeks Straits Times jatuh 0,12%. Indeks Hang Seng melesat 0,32%. Indeks Shanghai menipis 0,13%.
3,866.48 1 Day Return %
4,196.28
0.33
(2.8)
LQ45
697.02
0.48
(5.2)
EIDO
22.42
1.91
(25.9)
IDX
21.65
1.93
(24.4)
16,167.97
1.84
23.4
S&P 500
1,810.65
1.66
27.0
NASDAQ
4,070.06
1.15
34.8
FTSE
6,492.08
0.09
10.1
NIKKEI
15,833.09
2.02
52.3
HANG SENG
DOW JONES
23,143.82
0.32
2.1
STRAITS TIMES
3,061.78
(0.12)
(3.3)
KLSE
1,847.50
(0.18)
9.4
Today’s Market: Secara teknikal indeks hari Kamis (19/12), prediksi IHSG akan bergerak menguat di kisaran 4174-4236. Housing starts AS bulan September bertambah menjadi 1,09 juta (estimasi 925 ribu) dari 891 ribu pada bulan sebelumnya. Selain itu, keputusan the Fed untuk mempertahankan suku bunga di level 0.25% dan hasil rapat FOMC mengenai rencana pengurangan stimulus dari USD 85 miliar per bulannya menjadi USD 75 miliar setelah adanya perbaikan pada kegiatan ekonomi AS akan mempengaruhi pergerakan indeks hari ini.
Rate (IDR)
USD/IDR
12,167.50
42.50
(19.5)
EUR/IDR
16,724.02
17.69
(22.7)
JPY/IDR
118.02
0.15
(4.3)
SGD/IDR
9,605.91
(39.58)
(16.5)
AUD/IDR
10,838.05
2.12
(6.9)
GBP/IDR
19,840.58
40.15
CRUDE OIL (USD)/BARREL COAL (USD) / MT NATURAL GAS (USD) / mmBtu
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
(20.2)
1 Day Return %
YTD Change %
97.60
(0.20)
6.3
85.15
1.37
(5.6)
Price
4.28
0.68
27.7
1,224.23
0.47
(26.9)
NICKEL (USD) / MT
14,140.00
0.57
(17.1)
TIN (USD) / MT
22,910.00
0.59
(2.1)
CPO (MYR) / MT
2,502.00
GOLD (USD) / OUNCE
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2013: MYOR 34,600 ROTI 1,330
Change
YTD Change %
FOREX
Commodities
Top Technical Buys: INTP, SMGR, GGRM, ITMG
YTD Change %
0.00
7.8
RUBBER (JPY)/KG
280.00
(1.06)
(3.0)
WHEAT/BUSHEL
6.13
(1.13)
(21.2)
CORN/BUSHEL
4.25
(0.41)
(39.1)
Thursday, December 19, 2013
CORPORATE NEWS •
•
•
•
Produksi minyak sawit PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) meningkat 4,1% menjadi 1,39 juta ton. Kenaikan CPO ini ditopang oleh produksi selama bulan November sebesar 155.321 ton. Selain itu, produksi kernel milik anak usaha PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) juga tumbuh. Produksi tersebut naik tipis 1,3% dari 293.115 menjadi 296.886 ton secara year-on-year (yoy). Meski demikian, produksi TBS justru menurun 6,8% menjadi 4,66 juta ton. (Positive) Source: Kontan PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk (TPIA), melalui anak usahanya PT Petrokimia Butadiene Indonesia (PBI) akan mulai mengoperasikan pabrik butadiene pada kuartal I 2014. Parbrik ini ditargetkan berkapasitas produksi 120 ribu ton per tahun. Pabrik ini akan menggunakan bahan baku dari produk TPIA yaitu mixed C4. Investasi pembangunan pabrik tersebut mencapai US$ 150 juta. Perusahaan juga menambah fasilitas produksi naphta cracker senilai total US$ 380 j uta. Dengan ekspansi ini, kapasitas produksi berbagai produk petrokimia TPIA akanmeningkat 43% per tahun. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Tbk (SIDO) menganggarkan belanja modal 2014 sebesar Rp 365,14 miliar. Belanja modal akan digunakan untuk pembangunan pabrik di lahan baru. Menurut manajemen perusahaan, perusahaan akan membebaskan tanak seluas 10 hektare (ha) disekitar pabrik untuk perluasan produksi. Perluasan produksi akan dilakukan untuk produk Tolak Angin dan produksi bahan baku. Pasca per luasan, kapasitas produksi tolak angin akan naik 100% menjadi 140 juta sachet per bulan. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today PT Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) memproyeksikan laba bersih perusahaan tahun ini naik 40% yoy. Hal ini didukung oleh kenaikan pendapatan yang diperkirakan mencapai US$ 40 juta yoy. Perusahaan juga menargetkan produksi liquid petroleum gas (LPG) hingga akhir Desember 2013 sebanyak 40 ribu metrik ton. Disamping itu, perusahaan mengalokasikan belanja modal sekitar US$ 21 juta. Sekitar US$ 6 juta –US$ 7 juta telah direalisasikan pada 2013 dan sisanya US$ 14 juta– US$ 15 juta dianggarkan tahun 2014 untuk pengembangan proyek PT Panca Amara Utama. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
2
Thursday, December 19, 2013
TRADING VIEW
Eddy Wijaya/ Technical Analyst/62 21 3925550 By: Rheza, Tie sha, R ichard
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
TICKER
RECOMMENDATION
PRICE
ENTRY
EXIT
S2
S1
R1
R2
EXPLANATION
23800 Rsi : reversal
AGRICULTURE AALI
Buy on Weakness
23200
22950
23500
22650
22950
23500
BWPT
Buy on Weakness
1300
1280
1320
1260
1280
1320
1350 Gravestone doji
LSIP
Buy on Weakness
1830
1800
1860
1780
1800
1860
1890 White spinning top
BANK & FINANCE BMRI
Buy on Weakness
7700
7600
7800
7500
7600
7800
7950 Black spinning top
BBRI
Buy on Weakness
7100
7000
7200
6900
7000
7200
7400 White spinning top
BBNI
Buy on Weakness
3900
3850
3950
3800
3850
3950
4050 Black spinning top
BBCA
Buy on Weakness
9450
9300
9600
9200
9300
9600
9800 Rsi : downtrend
CONSUMER GOODS INDF ICBP GGRM UNVR CPIN
Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness Trading Buy Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness
6600 10150 41150 25900 3250
6500 10000 41150 25650 3200
6700 10250 41600 26200 3300
6400 9850 40350 25400 3150
6500 10000 40800 25650 3200
6700 10250 41600 26200 3300
MAIN
Buy on Weakness
3250
3200
3300
3150
3200
3300
6800 10350 42050 26400 3400
Rsi : downtrend White spinning top Stoc osc : downtrend Rsi : downtrend Black spinning top
3400 Rsi : downtrend
BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY ASII
Buy on Weakness
6250
6150
6300
6050
6150
6300
SMGR
Trading Buy
13500
13500
13900
13150
13350
13900
14250 Rsi : uptrend
6450 Inverted hammer
INTP
Trading Buy
19800
19800
20000
19350
19600
20000
20250 Macd : downtrend
INFRASTRUCTURE TLKM
Buy on Weakness
2075
2025
2100
1980
2025
2100
2150 Long legged doji
PGAS
Buy on Weakness
4600
4550
4650
4450
4550
4650
4800 White spinning top
JSMR
Trading Sell
4725
4725
4650
4600
4650
4800
4900 Macd : downtrend
TBIG
Buy on Weakness
5750
5650
5850
5550
5650
5850
6000 Inverted hammer
MAPI
Trading Sell
5850
5850
5700
5600
5700
5950
6100 Stoc osc : downtrend
RALS
Buy on Weakness
1040
1020
1050
1000
1020
1050
1080 Stoc osc : uptrend
ACES
Buy on Weakness
640
620
650
600
620
650
670 Long legged doji
MPPA
Buy on Weakness
1870
1850
1880
1830
1850
1880
1900 White spinning top
PTBA
Buy on Weakness
11250
11100
11400
11000
11100
11400
11600 Macd : downtrend
ADRO
Buy on Weakness
1150
1120
1170
1100
1120
1170
ITMG
Trading Buy
29100
29100
29250
28500
28750
29250
ANTM
Trading Buy
1170
1170
1190
1120
1150
1190
RETAIL
MINING
1200 White spinning top 29600 Macd : reversal 1210 Stoc osc : uptrend
TINS
Buy on Weakness
1600
1580
1620
1560
1580
1620
1640 Black spinning top
UNTR
Buy on Weakness
18150
17950
18350
17700
17950
18350
18500 Macd : downtrend
PROPERTY ASRI
Buy on Weakness
455
445
460
430
445
460
475 Rsi : downtrend
LPKR
Buy on Weakness
910
890
920
870
890
920
940 Gravestone doji
CTRA
Buy on Weakness
750
730
760
710
730
760
780 Stoc osc : uptrend
APLN
Trading Sell
220
220
210
200
210
230
240 Stoc osc : downtrend
SMRA
Buy on Weakness
800
780
820
760
780
820
840 Macd : downtrend
SSIA
Buy on Weakness
650
630
660
610
630
660
BSDE
Buy on Weakness
1320
1300
1340
1270
1300
1340
1370 Macd : downtrend
WIKA
Buy on Weakness
1650
1630
1660
1610
1630
1660
1680 Stoc osc : uptrend
PTPP
Trading Buy
1170
1150
1180
1130
1150
1180
1200 Stoc osc : uptrend
ADHI
Buy on Weakness
1600
1580
1610
1560
1580
1610
1630 Stoc osc : reversal
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
680 Rsi : uptrend
3
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Global Equity Indices Description YTD Change % LQ45 Nikkei 225 JCI FTSE 100 ASX 200 DJIA S&P500 STI CAC 40 Shanghai Composite DAX KOSPI Hang Seng Euro Stoxx
(5.2) 52.3 (2.8) 10.1 10.6 23.4 27.0 (3.3) 12.9 (5.3) 20.6 (0.4) 2.1 12.9
19-Dec-13 Forward 2013 P/E Ratio (Best Est.) 697 15,831 4,196 6,492 5,144 16,168 1,811 3,062 4,110 2,148 9,182 1,989 23,144 2,975
14.5 20.3 14.5 13.5 14.8 15.2 16.3 14.5 13.6 9.4 13.7 9.4 11.0 13.7
Selected Indonesian Equities Description AALI ADRO AKRA ANTM ASII ASRI BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BDMN BHIT BKSL BMRI BMTR BSDE BUMI BWPT CPIN EXCL GGRM GIAA HRUM
YTD Change % 17.8 (27.7) 15.1 (8.6) (17.8) (24.2) 3.8 5.4 2.2 (37.9) (33.2) (38.9) (12.2) (4.9) (19.2) 18.9 (42.4) (5.8) (11.0) (12.3) (26.9) (25.8) (47.5)
19-Dec-13
22,900 ICBP 1,150 IMAS 4,775 INCO 1,170 INDF 6,250 INDY 455 INTP 9,450 ITMG 3,900 JSMR 7,100 KLBF 900 LPKR 3,775 LSIP 330 MAIN 166 MAPI 7,700 MNCN 1,940 PGAS 1,320 PTBA 340 SMCB 1,300 SMGR 3,250 SSIA 5,000 TLKM 41,150 UNTR 490 UNVR 3,150 JAKPROP INDEX JAKBIND INDEX
YTD Change %
19-Dec-13
30.1 (6.6) 7.4 12.8 (57.0) (11.8) (30.0) (13.3) 14.2 (9.0) (20.4) 36.8 (12.0) (1.0) 0.0 (25.5) (23.3) (14.8) (39.8) 15.3 (7.9) 24.2
10,150 4,950 2,525 6,600 610 19,800 29,100 4,725 1,210 910 1,830 3,250 5,850 2,475 4,600 11,250 2,225 13,500 650 2,075 18,150 25,900
JAKFIN INDEX
Sectors Description
Description
1-mth Return %
Property Basic Industry Trade Finance Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Infrastructure Agriculture Mining See important disclaimer at the end of this report
(3.8) (3.9) (5.1) (5.3) (4.7) (7.2) (5.4) 2.9 (2.7)
JAKCONS INDEX JAKMIND INDEX JAKINFR INDEX JAKAGRI INDEX JAKMINE INDEX
4
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Dividen Ticker
Status
DPS (Rp)
Cum Date
Ex Date
Recording
Payment
EMTK
Final
29
26 November 2013 27 November 2013 29 November 2013
13 Desember 2013
BBCA
Final
45
28 November 2013 29 November 2013
3 Desember 2013
17 Desember 2013
LPKR
Final
11.85
29 November 2013
2 Desember 2013
4 Desember 2013
18 Desember 2013
HMSP
Final
969
2 Desember 2013
3 Desember 2013
5 Desember 2013
18 Desember 2013
BATA
Final
15.08
9 Desember 2013
10 Desember 2013
12 Desember 2013
20 Desember 2013
Stock Split Ticker
OS:NS
Ticker
OS:NS
MAPI
1:10
NIPS
1:20
ALMI
1:2
INAI
1:2
Upcoming IPO Company
Business
PT Bank Muamalat indonesia
Perbankan
PT Blue Bird
Jasa operator taksi dan jasa angkutan penumpang darat
PT Citra Borneo Indah
Kelapa Sawit
PT Dwi Aneka Jaya Kemasindo
Kemasan percetakan offset dan karton gelombang
PT Eka Sari Lorena Transport
Transportasi
PT Puradelta Lestari
Properti
PT Industri Jamu Sido Muncul
Jamu
PT Wika Beton
Konstruksi
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
Offering Date
Share in Rp.
Price
Listing Date
550-975
425-550
16-Dec-13
205-255 580
18-Dec-13
5
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Global Reference Rates
FOREX
%
Rate (USD) Change %
FED Rate
0.25
USDIDR
12,168
(0.35)
BI Rate
7.50
USDEUR
0.73
(0.03)
ECB Rate
0.25
USDJPY
104
0.18
BOJ Rate
0.10
USDSGD
1.26
0.01
BOE Rate
0.50
USDAUD
1.13
0.01
PBOC Rate
6.00
USDGBP
0.61
0.05
Description Inflation YTD (%)
November 7.79
October
Lending & Deposit Rates
7.66
JIBOR (IDR) (%)
8.25 0.88
Inflation YOY (%)
8.37
8.32
LIBOR (GBP) (%)
Inflation MOM (%)
0.12
0.09
SIBOR (USD) (%)
1.46
Foreign Reserve (USD Bn)
97.00
95.70
INDOGB 5Y YIELD (%)
7.97
GDP (YOY Growth) 3Q2013 (%)
5.62
5.62
INDOGB 10Y YIELD (%)
8.42
GDP (IDR tn) 3Q2013
2.96
2.96
INDOGB 15Y YIELD (%)
8.98
Dual Listed
MACRO INDICATORS
Price (IDR) Change %
TLKM (US)
2,214.58
0.00
ANTM (GR)
982.63
1.72
RAPBN 2014
APBN-P 2013
APBN 2013
GDP (%)
5.8-6.1
6.3
6.8
Inflation (%)
4.5-5.5
7.2
4.9
10,000-10,500
9,600
9,300
SBI—3 Months (%)
5.5
5.0
5.0
Crude Oil (USD/brl)
106
108
100
Oil Production (bpd)
870,000
840,000
900,000
Total APBN (IDR tn)
1,240
1,726
1,683
IDR/USD (IDR)
DISCLAIMER This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without notice.
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