Wednesday, March 04, 2015
DAILY RESEARCH Sinarmas Investment Research/+6221 3925550/
[email protected]
JCI Index 5,500 5,490
IDX S ta tis tic s
Clo s in g
JCI
5,474.62
Tra ns a c tion Va lue (Rp tn)
7.359
Tra ns a c tion Volume (mn s ha re s )
7,244
Fore ign Ne t Buy (S e ll) (Rp bn)
289.32
5,480
Fore ign Ne t Buy (S e ll) YTD (Rp tn)
5,470
Tota l Ma rke t Ca pita liza tion (Rp tn)
11.93
a s pe rc e nta ge of la s t ye a r's
Last Price
Previous day
Ke y In d ic e s
0.12
Clo s in g
Closed at 5474.62 JCI
Previous Day: Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Selasa (3/3), IHSG turun sebanyak 3,21 poin (0,06%) ke level 5474,62. Ada sebanyak 132 saham yang naik, 161 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 95 saham yang stagnan. LQ45 turun 0,57 poin (0,06%) ke level 953,11. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor aneka industri naik 1,38%, sektor perdagangan naik 0,34%, dan sektor manufaktur naik 0,22%. Sektor-sektor di zona merah adalah sektor konstruksi turun 0,98%, sektor pertambangan turun 0,63%, dan sektor industri dasar turun 0,35%. Total perdagangan sebanyak Rp 7,359 triliun. Foreign net buy sebesar Rp 289,32 miliar. Indeks Nikkei turun 0,06%. Indeks Hang Seng jatuh 0,74%. Indeks strait times naik 0,59%. Today’s Market: Secara teknikal indeks hari Rabu (4/3) diperkirakan akan bergerak mixed di kisaran level 5455-5495. Faktor eksternal dari luar yaitu China akan merilis data HSBC China Services yang diperkirakan akan naik 1,19 ke level 52,99. Dari Eropa akan merilis data Markit Services PMI Final yang diperkirakan bertambah 1,2 ke level 53,9. Dari dalam negeri masih diperhatikan juga melemahnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar.
4.7
LQ45
953.1
(0.06)
6.1
EIDO
27.72
(0.61)
1.0
IDX
24.8
(0.32)
1.9
18,203.4
(0.47)
2.1
S &P 500
2,107.8
(0.45)
2.4
NAS DAQ
4,979.9
(0.56)
5.1
DOW JONES
FTS E NIKKEI HANG S ENG S TRAITS TIMES KLS E FO REX
6,889.1
(0.74)
4.9
18,815.2
(0.06)
7.0
24,887.4
(0.74)
4.7
3,403.9
0.03
1.7
1,821.3
0.23
3.4
Ch a n g e %
YTD Ch a n g e %
Ra te (IDR)
US D/IDR
12,970
EUR/IDR
14,520
0.07
3.8
JP Y/IDR
108
(0.24)
(4.3)
S GD/IDR
9,508
(0.21)
(1.4)
AUD/IDR
10,079
(0.30)
0.0
GBP /IDR
19,969
0.34
(3.2)
P ric e
0.29
1 Da y Re tu rn %
(4.5)
YTD Ch a n g e %
50.5
1.88
(5.3)
63.9
2.90
(12.1)
2.7
0.52
(6.0)
1,203.8
(0.25)
1.7
NICKEL (US D) / MT
13,855.0
(1.70)
(9.7)
TIN (US D) / MT
17,800.0
(0.84)
(8.0)
COAL (US D) / MT NATURAL GAS (US D) / mmBtu GOLD (US D) / OUNCE
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
YTD Ch a n g e %
(0.06)
CRUDE OIL (US D)/BARREL
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2014: ROTI 1,460
1 Da y Re tu rn %
5,474.6
Co mmo d itie s
Top Technical Buys: ICBP, BBCA, BEST, LSIP
5,168.50
CP O (MYR) / MT
2.59
4.3
RUBBER (J P Y)/KG
2,381.0 220.4
(0.54)
11.4
WHEAT/BUS HEL
508.0
(1.84)
(13.7)
CORN/BUS HEL
378.8
(1.50)
(3.8)
Wednesday, March 04, 2015
CORPORATE & INDUSTRY NEWS •
PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk (ROTI) berencana menerbitkan obligasi berkelanjutan tahap II senilai Rp 500 miliar. Dana yang diperoleh sebagian akan digunakan untuk melunasi utang jatuh tempo, sedangkan sisanya 32% akan digunakan untuk mendukung pengembangan usaha berupa penambahan lini mesin serta renovasi bangunan di sejumlah pabrik perusahaan. Tahun ini sendiri, perusahaan menargetkan pertumbuhan pendapatan 20% seiring dengan penambahan volume penjualan dan strategi pengembangan produk baru. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today
•
PT Logindo Samudramakmur Tbk (LEAD) tengah menyiapkan dana senilai US$ 5 juta untuk melakukan pembelian kembali (buyback) saham sebesar 5,04% dari jumlah total modal perusahaan. Hal ini sebagai upaya manajemen perusahaan untuk menjaga kestabilan saham serta untuk meningkatkan nilai pemegang saham kedepannya. Alokasi dana untuk aksi perusahaan ini akan berasal dari saldo laba perusahaan yang hingga akhir tahun lalu tercatat sebesar US$ 59,40 juta. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today
•
PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) membukukan laba bersih tahun 2014 naik 8,9% YoY menjadi Rp 2,02 triliun. Kenaikan laba bersih ini didorong oleh peningkatan pendapatan usaha sebesar 16,67% menjadi Rp 13,08 triliun. Peningkatan kinerja ini seiring dengan peningkatan harga jual batu bara perusahaan, dimana tercatat pertumbuhan harga jual batu bara di pasar domestik sebesar 15% YoY menjadi Rp 723.635 per ton. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today
•
Persaingan Industri Semen Semakin Ketat. Sejumlah investasi baru yang dipersiapkan oleh produsen semen, baik pemain baru maupun pemain existing membuat persaingan di industri ini semakin tinggi. Hal ini sejalan dengan pertumbuhan pasar jangka pendek. Diperkirakan terdapat sekitar 9 pemain baru yang berminat berinvestasi dengan pembangunan pabrik baru (greenfield), seperti Siam Cement (Thailand), CNMB (China), Anhui Conch Cement, dan beberapa investor lain dengan total investasi 9 pemain baru diperkirakan mencapai US$ 4.4 miliar dan tambahan kapasitas produksi 40,3 juta ton di tahun 2017. (Neutral) Source: Indonesia Finance Today
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
2
Wednesday, March 04, 2015
TRADING VIEW TRADING VIEW Wednesday, March 04 , 2015
These recommendations are more based on technical and just for one day trading RESEARCH DEPARTMENT TICKER
RECOMMENDATION
PRICE
ENTRY
EXIT
S2
S1
R1
R2
EXPLANATION
AGRICULTURE AALI
Buy on Weakness
25625
25450
25850
25200
25450
25850
BWPT
Buy on Weakness
362
359
366
352
359
366
26100 Stoc osc : uptrend 371 Stoc osc : uptrend
LSIP
Buy on Weakness
1920
1910
1940
1890
1910
1940
1960 Black spinning top
BANK & FINANCE BMRI
Buy on Weakness
11900
11800
12050
11650
11800
12050
12200 Rsi : downtrend
BBRI
Buy on Weakness
12875
12750
12950
12650
12750
12950
13100 Rsi : downtrend
BBNI
Trading Sell
6675
6675
6600
6500
6600
6750
6825 Macd : downtrend
BBCA
Trading Buy
14400
14300
14550
14200
14300
14550
14700 Stoc osc : uptrend
CONSUMER GOODS INDF ICBP GGRM UNVR CPIN
Buy on Weakness Trading Buy Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness
7425 14725 55000 36075 3795
7350 14725 54550 35900 3780
7475 14850 55400 36250 3805
7300 14500 54425 35700 3765
7350 14650 54550 35900 3780
7475 14850 55400 36250 3805
7550 Black spinning top 15000 Morning star 55750 Black spinning top 36450 Rsi : downtrend 3820 Rsi : downtrend
MAIN
Buy on Weakness
2095
2080
2115
2070
2080
2115
2130 Macd : downtrend
8000
8000
8100
7800
7900
8100
8175 Rsi : reversal
BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY ASII
Trading Buy
SMGR
Buy on Weakness
14825
14750
14900
14700
14750
14900
15000 Stoc osc : downtrend
INTP
Buy on Weakness
24100
23800
24300
23500
23800
24300
24500 White spinning top
INFRASTRUCTURE TLKM
Buy on Weakness
2945
2930
2960
2915
2930
2960
2980 Stoc osc : downtrend
PGAS
Trading Buy
5350
5350
5400
5150
5250
5400
5500 Stoc osc : reversal
JSMR
Buy on Weakness
7125
7075
7175
7025
7075
7175
7250 Stoc osc : reversal
TBIG
Trading Buy
9300
9300
9400
9150
9225
9400
9500 Stoc osc : uptrend
Buy on Weakness
5475
5425
5525
5375
5425
5525
5650 White spinning top 725 Macd : downtrend
RETAIL MAPI RALS
Trading Sell
705
705
695
685
695
715
ACES
Buy on Weakness
825
810
840
790
810
840
860 Long legged doji
MPPA
Buy on Weakness
4440
4390
4490
4340
4390
4490
4550 Stoc osc : reversal
Buy on Weakness
11025
10950
10850
10950
11100
11250 Stoc osc : uptrend
MINING PTBA
11100
ADRO
Buy on Weakness
1015
1000
1030
980
1000
1030
1050 Stoc osc : uptrend
ITMG
Buy on Weakness
17500
17375
17625
17250
17375
17625
17850 Black spinning top
ANTM
Buy on Weakness
1000
990
1015
980
990
1015
TINS
Trading Sell
990
990
980
970
980
1010
UNTR
Trading Buy
22225
22225
22350
21850
22100
22350
Trading Sell
635
635
625
610
625
645
1030 Rsi : downtrend 1030 Stoc osc : downtrend 22500 Macd : overbought
PROPERTY ASRI
660 Stoc osc : downtrend
LPKR
Buy on Weakness
1170
1160
1185
1145
1160
1185
1200 Inverted hammer
CTRA
Trading Sell
1455
1455
1440
1425
1440
1470
1485 Stoc osc : downtrend
APLN
Trading Sell
456
456
454
452
454
459
SMRA
Buy on Weakness
1785
1775
1800
1760
1775
1800
1820 Doji
SSIA
Trading Sell
1300
1300
1285
1270
1285
1310
1340 Stoc osc : downtrend 2240 Rsi : downtrend
465 Macd: downtrend
BSDE
Buy on Weakness
2190
2170
2215
2150
2170
2215
WIKA
Buy on Weakness
3595
3570
3620
3550
3570
3620
3650 Rsi : downtrend
PTPP
Trading Sell
3980
3980
3950
3920
3950
4010
4040 Macd : downtrend
ADHI
Trading Sell
3360
3360
3340
3310
3340
3385
3410 Rsi : downtrend
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
3
Wednesday, March 04, 2015
MARKET DATA Global Equity Indices De s c rip tio n
YTD Ch a n g e %
4 - Ma r- 15
Fo rwa rd 2 0 14 P / E Ra tio (B e s t Es t. )
LQ45
6.1
953
16.6
Nikke i 225 JCI
6.8 4.7
18,643 5,475
20.1 16.1
FTS E 100 AS X 200
4.9 9.3
6,889 5,916
16.1 17.1
DJIA
2.1
18,203
16.9
S &P 500 S TI
2.4 1.7
2,108 3,422
17.8 14.1
CAC 40 S ha ngha i Composite
14.0 0.9
4,869 3,263
16.0 12.8
DAX KOS P I
15.0 4.5
11,280 2,001
14.6 11.3
Ha ng S e ng Euro S toxx
4.7 12.8
24,703 3,549
11.7 15.4
Selected Indonesian Equities De s c rip tio n
YTD Ch a n g e %
4 - Ma r- 15
De s c rip tio n
YTD Ch a n g e %
4 - Ma r- 15
AALI
5.7
25,625
ICBP
12.4
14,725
ADRO AKRA
(2.4) 21.1
1,015 4,990
IMAS INCO
0.0 (5.5)
4,000 3,425
ANTM AS II
(6.1) 7.7
1,000 8,000
INDF INDY
10.0 (6.9)
7,425 475
AS RI
13.4
635
INTP
(3.6)
24,100
BBCA BBNI
9.7 9.4
14,400 6,675
ITMG JS MR
13.8 1.1
17,500 7,125
BBRI BBTN
10.5 (7.5)
12,875 1,115
KLBF LP KR
(0.3) 14.7
1,825 1,170
BDMN BHIT
5.5 18.0
4,775 341
LS IP MAIN
1.6 (1.6)
1,920 2,095
BKS L BMRI
28.8 10.4
134 11,900
MAP I MNCN
7.9 22.2
5,475 3,105
BMTR
40.4
2,000
P GAS
(10.8)
5,350
BS DE BUMI
21.3 23.8
2,190 99
P TBA S MCB
(11.8) (13.0)
11,025 1,900
BWP T CP IN
(9.5) 0.4
362 3,795
S MGR S S IA
(8.5) 21.5
14,825 1,300
EXCL GGRM
(5.7) (9.4)
4,590 55,000
TLKM UNTR
2.8 28.1
2,945 22,225
GIAA HRUM
(4.5) (2.4)
11.7
36,075
530 UNVR 1,620 JAKP ROP INDEX
JAKBIND INDEX
JAKFIN INDEX
Sectors De s c rip tio n
1- mth Re tu rn %
P rope rty
1.3
Ba sic Industry
0.7
Tra de
0.5
Fina nc e Mis c e lla ne ous Industry
5.0 (0.6)
Consume r Infra struc ture
2.4 0.7
Agric ulture Mining
6.6 (0.7)
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
JAKCONS INDEX JAKMIND INDEX JAKINFR INDEX JAKAGRI INDEX JAKMINE INDEX
4
Wednesday, March 04, 2015
MARKET DATA & CORPORATE INFO Economic Indicators G lo b a l Re fe re n c e Ra te s
%
FED Ra te
0.25
FO REX
Ra te (US D)
Ch a n g e %
US DIDR
12,969
0.01
BI Ra te
7.50
US DEUR
0.89
(0.02)
ECB Ra te
0.05
US DJ P Y
120
0.05
BOJ Ra te
0.10
US DS GD
1.36
(0.02)
BOE Ra te
0.50
US DAUD
1.28
0.07
P BOC Ra te
5.35
US DGBP
0.65
0.00
De s c rip tio n
Fe b - 15
Ja n - 15
Le n d in g & De p o s it Ra te s
Infla tion YTD (%)
(0.61)
(0.24)
J IBOR (IDR) (%)
8.00
Infla tion YOY (%)
6.29
6.96
LIBOR (GBP ) (%)
0.98
Infla tion MOM (%)
(0.3 6)
(0.24)
S IBOR (US D) (%)
1.46
Fore ig n Re s e rve s (US D bn)
114.25
111.86
INDOGB 5 Y YIELD (%)
6.91
GDP YOY Growth Ra te 4Q14 (%)
5.01
INDOGB 10Y YIELD (%)
7.11
GDP Growth Ra te 2014 (%)
5.02
INDOGB 15Y YIELD (%)
7.31
Du a l Lis te d
P ric e (IDR)
Ch a n g e %
TLKM (US )
2,788.34
(0.46)
ANTM (GR)
855.32
(14.49)
State Budget 2015
2014 INDICATOR
APBNP
APBN
APBN-P
GDP Growth (%, YoY)
5,5
5,8
5,7
Inflation (%, YoY)
5,3
4,4
5,0
11.600
11.900
12.500
3 Months SPN (%)
6.0
6.0
6.2
Indonesian Crude Oil (USD/barrel)
105
105
60
Exchange rate (USD/IDR)
Oil Lifting ( thousands barrel/day)
818
900
825
Gas Lifting (thousands, BOE/day)
1.224
1.248
1.221
Total State Budget (in IDR trillion)
1,635
1,793
1,761
Rights Issue Ticker
Ratio
Price (Rp)
Cum Date
EX Date
Trading
WOMF
27:20
135
28 January 2015
29 January 2015
4 February –11 February 2015
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
5
Wednesday, March 04, 2015
http://www.sinarmassekuritas.co.id
RESEARCH TEAM ANALYST James Wahjudi Coal and Mining T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 611
[email protected]
JUNIOR ANALYST Wilbert Consumer goods and Retail T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 610
[email protected]
ANALYST Evan Hadiwidjaja Banking and Cement T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 610
[email protected]
TECHNICAL ANALYST Eddy Wijaya T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 159
[email protected]
DISCLAIMER This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without notice. For further information please contact our number +62 21 392 5550 or fax +62 21 392 2320.
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