Wednesday, August 06, 2014 Sinarmas Investment Research/+6221 3925550/
[email protected]
JCI Index 5,130 5,120
DAILY RESEARCH
IDX S ta tis tic s
Clo s ing
JCI
5,109.09
Transaction Va lue (Rp tn)
5.750
Transaction Volume (mn shares)
5,600
Fore ign Net Buy (Se ll) (Rp bn)
(130.60)
Fore ign Net Buy (Se ll) YTD (Rp tn)
5,110
59.00
a s pe rc enta ge of la st ye ar's
11.70
5,100
Tota l Market Capitaliza tion (Rp tn)
5,090
Key Indices
Last Price
Previous day
Closed at 5097.88
Previous Day: Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Selasa (5/8), IHSG turun sebanyak –10,16 poin (-0,20%) ke level 5109,09. Ada sebanyak 143 saham yang naik, 165 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 78 saham yang stagnan. Total perdagangan hari ini sebanyak Rp 5,750 triliun. LQ45 turun -2,61 poin (-0,30%) ke level 875,46. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor konstruksi naik 1,14%, sektor agrikultur naik 0,42%, dan sektor pertambangan naik 0,22%. Sektor-sektor di zona merah adalah sektor aneka industri turun 1,15%, sektor consumer goods turun 0,91%, dan sektor manufaktur turun 0,79. Foreign net sell sebesar Rp 130 miliar. Indeks Nikkei turun 0,1%. Indeks Straits Times naik 0,28%. Indeks Hang Seng menguat 0,20%. Indeks Shanghai melemah 0,15%.
JCI
4,775.42
Closing
YTD 1 Day Change Return % %
5,109.1
(0.20)
19.5
LQ45
875.5
(0.30)
23.1
EIDO
28.4
(1.46)
24.3
IDX
26.4
(1.78)
24.3
16,429.5
(0.84)
(0.9)
S&P 500
1,920.2
(0.97)
3.9
NASDAQ
4,352.8
(0.71)
4.2
FTSE
6,682.5
0.07
(1.0)
NIKKEI
15,320.3
(1.00)
(6.3)
HANG SENG
24,600.1
0.20
5.8
STRAITS TIMES
3,318.4
0.28
5.1
KLSE
1,876.7
0.05
0.5
Change
YTD Change % 3.6
DOW JONES
FOREX
Rate (IDR)
Today’s Market: Secara teknikal indeks hari Rabu (6/8) diperkirakan akan bergerak melemah di level 5073-5142. Indeks akan dipengaruhi dengan dirilisnya data ISM non-manufacturing PMI Amerika bulan Juli yang berada di level 58,7 (estimasi 55,5). Selain itu Amerika juga merilis data factory orders yang naik ke level 1,1% (estimasi 0,5%). Dari luar negeri, sentimen global dipengaruhi oleh konflik berkelanjutan antara Rusia dan Ukraina.
USD/IDR
11,750.0
51.70
EUR/IDR
15,685.6
29.85
6.8
114.4
0.32
1.2
SGD/IDR
9,409.2
12.61
2.3
AUD/IDR
10,921.7
3.91
(0.6)
GBP/IDR
19,783.6
37.66
1.7
Commodities
Price
JPY/IDR
CRUDE OIL (USD)/BARREL
97.7
(0.6)
(0.7)
COAL (USD) / MT
76.9
0.6
(5.9)
3.9
1.6
(7.9)
NATURAL GAS (USD) / mmBtu GOLD (USD) / OUNCE
Top Technical Buys: WSKT, ARNA, WIKA, BMRI
1,289.2
0.1
6.9
NICKEL (USD) / MT
18,450.0
(0.3)
32.7
TIN (USD) / MT
22,500.0
0.4
0.7
2,328.0
(1.2)
(11.4)
191.0
CPO (MYR) / MT
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2014: MYOR 34,600 ROTI 1,330 See important disclaimer at the end of this report
YTD 1 Day Change Return % %
RUBBER (JPY)/KG
(0.8)
(31.7)
WHEAT/BUSHEL
5.6
2.7
(7.7)
CORN/BUSHEL
3.6
(0.7)
(15.6)
Wedn esda y, Augu st 06, 2014
CORPORATE NEWS •
•
•
•
PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR) berencana menaikkan capex menjadi US$ 500 juta pada 2015. Dana tersebut akan digunakan meningkat 25% dibandingkan tahun ini senilai US$ 400 juta. Dana akan digunakan untuk mendanai sejumlah proyek pembangunan pabrik, upgrading, konversi energi, dan distribusi semen. Sumber dana berasal dari kas internal dan eksternal. (Positive) Source: Investor Daily PT Surya Semesta Tbk (SSIA) meraih pinjaman US$ 100 juta pada semester II tahun ini. Perusahaan saat ini ditengah menjajaki 2 hingga 3 bank lokal untuk meraih pinjaman. Dana pinjaman tersebut akan digunakan untuk pembangunan office tower di wilayah Jakarta. Pinjaman nanti akan terdiri dari 70% berdonminasi rupiah dan sisanya 30% berdonminasi dolar Amerika (AS). Perusahaan menargetkan proyek tersebut rampung pada akhir 2017. (Positive) Source: Investor Daily PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) akan mengakuisisi tambang batubara. Perusahaan lewat anak usahanya, PT Indonesia Coal Resources (ICR) akan mengakuisisi satu tambang batubara di propinsi Jambi pada tahun ini. Aksi akuisisi ini merupakan upaya perusahaan menggenjot pasokan batubara untuk kebutuhan internal dan eksternal. Saat ini, ICR telah memiliki satu tambang batubara di Sarolangun, Jambi yang diakuisisi pada Januari 2011 dengan senilai Rp 92,5 miliar. Tambang tersebut memiliki cadangan batubara sebanyak 8,25 juta ton dan kalori rata-rata sekitar 5.200 kilo calorie per kilogram (kcal). (Positive) Source: Investor Daily PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BBTN) akan segera memangkas rasio NPL. Bank menargetkan rasio non performing loan (NPL) berada pada level 3,35% pada akhir tahun ini. NPL net perusahaan pada semester I3014 tercatat pada level 3,83% atau naik dari periode yang sama thun lalu sebesar 3,65%. Dua sektor yang berkontribusi besar terhadap NPL yakni kredit konstruksi dan kredit mikro. (Neutral) Source: Bisnis Indonesia
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
2
Wedn esda y, Augu st 06, 2014
TRADING VIEW
Eddy Wijaya/ Technical Analyst/62 21 3925550
These recommendations are more based on technical and just for one day trading RESEARCH DEPARTMENT TICKER
RECOMMENDATION
PRICE
ENTRY
EXIT
S2
S1
R1
R2
EXPLANATION
26625 Doji
AGRICULTURE AALI
Buy on Weakness
26275
26100
26450
25950
26100
26450
BWPT
Buy on Weakness
1145
1135
1160
1110
1135
1160
1175 White spinning top
LSIP
Buy on Weakness
2125
2115
2140
2090
2115
2140
2155 Macd : uptrend
BANK & FINANCE BMRI
Trading Buy
10400
10400
10475
10100
10250
10475
10550 Rsi : reversal
BBRI
Trading Sell
10825
10825
10750
10650
10750
10950
11050 Macd : downtrend
BBNI
Buy on Weakness
5150
5135
5170
5120
5135
5170
5185 Dragonfly doji
BBCA
Buy on Weakness
11750
11675
11800
11600
11675
11800
11900 Dragonfly doji
7250 10700 54900 31300 3995
CONSUMER GOODS INDF ICBP GGRM UNVR CPIN
Trading Sell Trading Sell Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness
7075 10550 54600 30900 3965
7075 10550 54400 30775 3950
7025 10450 54750 31050 3980
6950 10375 54250 30650 3935
7025 10450 54400 30775 3950
7150 10625 54750 31050 3980
MAIN
Buy on Weakness
3005
2990
3015
2970
2990
3015
Black spinning top Rsi : downtrend Doji Rsi : downtrend Rsi : reversal
3030 Stoc osc : downtrend
BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY ASII
Buy on Weakness
7800
7700
7950
7600
7700
7950
8100 Stoc osc : uptrend
SMGR
Trading Sell
16500
16500
16325
16150
16325
16725
16950 Macd : downtrend
INTP
Trading Sell
24250
24250
24150
24000
24150
24400
24600 Macd : downtrend
INFRASTRUCTURE TLKM
Buy on Weakness
2710
2690
2730
2670
2690
2730
2750 Long legged doji
PGAS
Buy on Weakness
6000
5950
6050
5850
5950
6050
6125 Long legged doji
JSMR
Buy on Weakness
6350
6300
6425
6200
6300
6425
6525 Stoc osc : downtrend
TBIG
Buy on Weakness
8725
8715
8745
8650
8715
8745
8800 Black spinning top
MAPI
Buy on Weakness
5175
5150
5200
5100
5150
5200
5230 Rsi : reversal
RALS
Buy on Weakness
1050
1040
1065
1030
1040
1065
1080 White spinning top
ACES
Trading Sell
890
890
870
850
870
910
MPPA
Trading Sell
2825
2825
2800
2780
2800
2845
PTBA
Take profit
12700
-
12900
12400
12550
12900
ADRO
Take profit
1255
-
1275
1215
1235
1275
ITMG
Buy on Weakness
27300
27100
27500
26850
27100
27500
27725 Rsi : downtrend
ANTM
Buy on Weakness
1230
1220
1250
1200
1220
1250
1280 Long legged doji
TINS
Trading Buy
1430
1430
1450
1380
1400
1450
UNTR
Buy on Weakness
24025
23975
24150
23850
23975
24150
RETAIL
925 Macd : downtrend 2880 Rsi : downtrend
MINING 13100 Stoc osc : overbought 1290 White spinning top
1480 Rsi : uptrend 24275 Macd : golden cross
PROPERTY ASRI
Buy on Weakness
530
520
545
500
520
545
565 Rsi : uptrend
LPKR
Buy on Weakness
1140
1120
1150
1090
1120
1150
1170 Rsi : uptrend
CTRA
Buy on Weakness
1200
1175
1220
1160
1175
1220
1240 Inverted hammer
APLN
Buy on Weakness
335
325
340
320
325
340
355 Black spinning top
SMRA
Trading Sell
1315
1315
1305
1295
1305
1325
SSIA
Buy on Weakness
760
750
780
740
750
780
790 White spinning top
BSDE
Buy on Weakness
1600
1570
1625
1540
1570
1625
1650 White spinning top
WIKA
Trading Buy
2690
2690
2710
2640
2670
2710
2730 Morning star
PTPP
Trading Buy
2325
2325
2340
2290
2315
2340
2360 Rsi : reversal
ADHI
Trading Buy
3140
3140
3165
3080
3125
3165
3180 Morning star
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
1335 Rsi : downtrend
3
Wednesday, August 06, 2014
Global Equity Indices Description
YTD Change %
LQ45 Nikkei 225 JCI FTSE 100 ASX 200 DJIA S&P500 STI CAC 40 Shanghai Composite DAX KOSPI Hang Seng Euro Stoxx
6-Aug-14
23.1 (6.3) 19.5 (1.0) 2.7 (0.9) 3.9 5.1 (1.5) 4.9 (3.8) 2.8 5.8 (1.2)
Forward 2014 P/E Ratio (Best Est.)
875 15,264 5,109 6,682 5,498 16,429 1,920 3,328 4,233 2,220 9,190 2,067 24,648 3,072
16.4 17.2 16.5 14.0 15.3 14.5 16.1 14.6 15.0 8.8 13.0 16.5 11.4 14.2
Selected Indonesian Equities Description AALI ADRO AKRA ANTM ASII ASRI BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BDMN BHIT BKSL BMRI BMTR BSDE BUMI BWPT CPIN EXCL GGRM GIAA HRUM
YTD Change %
6-Aug-14
4.7 15.1 5.6 12.8 14.7 23.3 22.4 30.4 49.3 25.3 3.0 7.4 (22.3) 32.5 (1.6) 24.0 (32.3) (13.9) 17.5 9.6 30.0 (14.7) (18.0)
26,275 ICBP 1,255 IMAS 4,620 INCO 1,230 INDF 7,800 INDY 530 INTP 11,750 ITMG 5,150 JSMR 10,825 KLBF 1,090 LPKR 3,890 LSIP 365 MAIN 122 MAPI 10,400 MNCN 1,870 PGAS 1,600 PTBA 203 SMCB 1,145 SMGR 3,965 SSIA 5,700 TLKM 54,600 UNTR 423 UNVR 2,255 JAKPROP INDEX JAKBIND INDEX
YTD Change % 3.4 (11.2) 46.0 7.2 21.2 21.3 (4.2) 34.4 30.8 25.3 10.1 (5.4) (5.9) 5.7 34.1 24.5 33.2 16.6 35.7 27.2 26.4 18.8
6-Aug-14 10,550 4,350 3,870 7,075 715 24,250 27,300 6,350 1,635 1,140 2,125 3,005 5,175 2,775 6,000 12,700 3,030 16,500 760 2,710 24,025 30,900
JAKFIN INDEX
Sectors Description
Description
1-mth Return %
Property Basic Industry Trade Finance Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Infrastructure Agriculture Mining
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
9.4 5.4 3.4 4.8 1.7 4.7 6.9 (3.9) 3.3
JAKCONS INDEX JAKMIND INDEX JAKINFR INDEX JAKAGRI INDEX JAKMINE INDEX
4
Wednesday, August 06, 2014 Dividend Ticker
Status
DPS (IDR)
Cum Date
Ex Date
Recording
Payment
PANS
Final
115 11 Agustus 2014
12 Agustus 2014
14 Agustus 2014
27 Agustus 2014
DGIK
Final
2.50 12 Agustus 2014
13 Agustus 2014
15 Agustus 2014
29 Agustus 2014
RUIS
Final
7.50 12 Agustus 2014
13 Agustus 2014
15 Agustus 2014
29 Agustus 2014
KIAS
Final
1.51 12 Agustus 2014
13 Agustus 2014
15 Agustus 2014
29 Agustus 2014
PUDP
Final
12 14 Agustus 2014
15 Agustus 2014
19 Agustus 2014
29 Agustus 2014
IPOL
Final
1 15 Agustus 2014
18 Agustus 2014
20 Agustus 2014
3 September 2014
IKBI
Final
20 15 Agustus 2014
19 Agustus 2014
21 Agustus 2014
4 September 2014
SCMA
Final
51 18 Agustus 2014
19 Agustus 2014
21 Agustus 2014
5 September 2014
RDTX
Final
105 22 Agustus 2014
25 Agustus 2014
27 Agustus 2014
10 September 2014
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
5
Wednesday, August 06, 2014
Global Reference Rates
FOREX
%
Rate (USD) Change %
FED Rate
0.25
USDIDR
11,750
(0.44)
BI Rate
7.50
USDEUR
0.75
0.07
ECB Rate
0.15
USDJPY
103
0.00
BOJ Rate
0.10
USDSGD
1.25
(0.08)
BOE Rate
0.50
USDAUD
1.08
0.10
PBOC Rate
6.00
USDGBP
0.59
0.07
Description
July
June
Lending & Deposit Rates
Inflation YTD (%)
2.94
1.99
JIBOR (IDR) (%)
8.35
Inflation YOY (%)
4.53
6.70
LIBOR (GBP) (%)
1.07
Inflation MOM (%)
0.93
0.43
SIBOR (USD) (%)
1.46
INDOGB 5Y YIELD (%)
7.97
Foreign Reserves (USD bn)
107.05
GDP YOY Growth Rate 2Q14 (%)
5.12
INDOGB 10Y YIELD (%)
8.19
GDP Growth Rate 2014 (%)
1.20
INDOGB 15Y YIELD (%)
8.56
Dual Listed
MACRO INDICATORS
Price (IDR) Change %
TLKM (US)
2,526.25
0.00
ANTM (GR)
1,068.04
0.00
APBN-P 2014
APBN 2014
GDP Growth (%)
5.5
6.0
Inflation (%)
5.3
5.5
11.600
10,500
3 Months SPN (%)
6.0
5.5
Indonesian Crude Oil (USD/barrel)
105
105
Oil Lifting (barrel/day)
818,000
870,000
Gas Lifting (BOE/day)
1,224,000
1,240,000
1,635
1,667
Exchange rate (USD/IDR)
Total APBN (IDR tn)
DISCLAIMER This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without notice.
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