Th u rsd a y, N ovem ber 06, 2014
DAILY RESEARCH
Sinarmas Investment Research/+6221 3925550/
[email protected]
JCI Index 5,090 5,080
IDX S ta tis tic s
Clo s in g
JCI
5,066.83
Tra ns a c tion Va lue (Rp tn)
4.602
Tra ns a c tion Volume (mn s ha re s)
5,686
Fore ign Ne t Buy (S e ll) (Rp bn)
(377.11)
Fore ign Ne t Buy (S e ll) YTD (Rp tn)
5,070
47.68
a s pe rc e nta ge of la st ye a r's
4.42
Tota l Ma rke t Ca pita liza tion (Rp tn)
5,060
Ke y In d ic e s
5,050 Last Price
Previous day
Closed at 5066.83
Previous Day:
Clo s in g
4,735.10 1 Da y Re tu rn %
YTD Ch a n g e %
5,066.8
(0.08)
18.5
LQ45
864.1
(0.03)
21.5
EIDO
27.11
(0.77)
18.7
IDX
24.9
(0.60)
16.9
17,484.5
0.58
5.5
S &P 500
2,023.6
0.57
9.5
NAS DAQ
4,620.7
(0.06)
10.6
FTS E
6,539.1
1.32
(3.1)
JCI
Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Rabu (5/11), IHSG turun sebanyak 4,1 poin (-0,08%) ke level 5066,83. Ada sebanyak 124 saham yang naik, 170 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 88 saham yang stagnan. Total perdagangan sebanyak Rp 4,602 triliun. LQ45 turun 4,10 poin (-0,0,3%) ke level 864,06. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor aneka industri naik 1,81%, sektor manufaktur naik 0,32%, dan sektor industri dasar naik 0,19%. Sektor-sektor di zona merah adalah sektor agrikultur turun 2,25%, sektor konstruksi turun 0,73%, dan sektor pertambangan turun 0,61%. Foreign net sell sebesar Rp 377,11 miliar. Indeks Nikkei naik 0,44%, Indeks Hang Seng turun 0,63%. Indeks Shanghai melemah 0,48%. Indeks Strait times menguat 0,20%.
FO REX
Today’s Market:
US D/IDR
12,110
0.01
0.1
EUR/IDR
15,150
0.10
10.2
Secara teknikal indeks hari Kamis (6/11) diperkirakan akan bergerak melemah di level 5050-5103. Dari Eropa merilis data retail sales yang berada di –1,3%MoM (estimasi -0,49% MoM). Sementara itu, Amerika merilis data ISM nonmanufacturing PMI yang berada di level 57,1 (estimasi 58,14). Kelanjutan sentimen dari hasil data pertumbuhan PDB kuartal III-2014 dalam negeri kemaren (5/11) yang menunjukan perlambatan ekonomi di level 5,01% YoY dan masih dinantikan kelanjutan rencana kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi pada bulan ini.
DOW JONES
NIKKEI
16,937.3
0.44
4.5
HANG S ENG
23,845.7
(0.63)
1.7
S TRAITS TIMES
3,281.6
(0.28)
3.8
KLS E
1,839.3
(0.44)
(1.5)
Ra te (IDR)
107
(0.66)
9.0
S GD/IDR
9,394
(0.14)
2.5
AUD/IDR
10,569
(0.17)
3.1
GBP /IDR
19,378
0.05
3.9
Co mmo d itie s CRUDE OIL (US D)/BARREL
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
P ric e
1 Da y Re tu rn %
YTD Ch a n g e %
78.7
1.93
(19.9)
71.5
(0.63)
(12.5)
1.57
(0.4)
1,140.7
(2.37)
(5.2)
NICKEL (US D) / MT
15,280.0
(2.98)
10.3
TIN (US D) / MT
19,575.0
(0.99)
(12.1)
2,285.0
(1.30)
(15.2)
182.7
(3.89)
(34.6)
WHEAT/BUS HEL
530.5
(1.44)
(13.3)
CORN/BUS HEL
364.5
(2.41)
(12.3)
GOLD (US D) / OUNCE
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2014: ROTI 1,460
YTD Ch a n g e %
JP Y/IDR
COAL (US D) / MT NATURAL GAS (US D) / mmBtu
Top Technical Buys: UNTR, ASII, GGRM, BBRI
Ch a n g e %
CP O (MYR) / MT RUBBER (JP Y)/KG
4.2
Thursday, November 06, 2014
CORPORATE & INDUSTRY NEWS •
•
•
•
•
Batubara menyebabkan melemahnya target PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) 2015 lebih rendah. Prediksi pelemahan harga batubara tahun depan membuat target penjualan alat berat perusahaan 2015 lebih rendah. Perusahaan hanya dapat mematok target penjualan alat berat pertambangan sebanyak 4.000 unit saja atau turun 4,76% jika dibandingkan dengan realisasi penjualan alat berat pertambangan tahun 2013 sebanyak 4.200 unit. Sementara jika dibandingkan dengan target penjualan alat berat pertambangan tahun 2014 sebesar 3.700-3.800 unit alat berat dibandingkan target 2015 masih lebih besar 5,26%-8,12%. Meski demikian, target tersebut merupakan target revisi. Selain itu, perusahaan menyetor Rp 1 triliun untuk mendirikan perusahaan baru yang akan menaungi rencan perusahaan untuk bergerak di bidang konstruksi melalui akuisisi saham PT Acset Indonusa Tbk. (Neutral) Source: Kontan, Bisnis Indonesia PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WSKT) lewat anak usahanya PT Waskita Precast akan membangun dua pabrik anyar pada 2015. Pabrik pertama berada di Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur. Meski demikian, rencana pembangunan pabrik di Balikpapan tersebut merupakan penundaaan dari rencana pembangunan tahun ini. Penundaana pabrik tersebut terjadi karena perusahaan harus merampungkan pembelian lahan. Pabrik beton pracetak di kota minyak tersebut akan menelan biaya investasi sebesar Rp 60 miliar. Sedangkan pabrik kedua berlokasi di Jakarta. Target pengerjaan pabrik sama dengan yang ada di Balikpapan. (Neutral) Source: Kontan PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR) akan menarik utang Rp 2 triliun. Perusahaan mencari dana eksternal untuk membiayai belanja modal 2015 yang sebesar Rp 5 triliun. Saat ini, perusahaan menjajaki utang dari perbankan lokal. Selain meminjam bank, perusahaan mengkaji penerbitan obligasi. Selain adanya rencana ekspansi, perusahaan membidik volume penjualan semen pada tahun depan tumbuh 6%-7% menjadi 28,62 juat ton hingga 29,96 juta ton. (Neutral) Source: Kontan PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) mencari pinjaman bank. Perusahaan tengah menjajaki pinjaman bank baru sekitar Rp 1,4 triliun untuk membiayai rencana ekspansi perusahaan setelah perolehan dana hasil IPO di bawah target awal. Perusahaan telah mengantongi dana sebesar Rp 1,4 triliun dari penawaran saham perdana (IPO). Sebagian dana hasil IPO akan digunakan untuk mempercepat pembayaran utang. Pada hari pertama listing, saham perusahaan ditutup naik 14,62%. (Neutral) Source: Bisnis Indonesia PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) menunda pembayaran bunga guarantees senior secured notes senilai US$ 700 juta hingga akhir November yang seharusnya dibayarkan pada bulan lalu. Perusahaan berencana membayar kupon tersebut dalam 30 hari masa tenggang yang merupakan bagian dari perjanjian dengan para pemegang obligasi. Keterlambatan pembayaran kupon tersebut wajar terjadi karena kondisi industri batubara saat ini tengah terkoreksi dengan penurunan harga komoditas itu dapat mencapai rata-rata 25%. (Negative) Source: Bisnis Indonesia
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
2
Thursday, November 06, 2014
TRADING VIEW
Eddy Wijaya/ Technical Analyst/62 21 3925550
These recommendations are more based on technical and just for one day trading RESEARCH DEPARTMENT TICKER
RECOMMENDATION
PRICE
ENTRY
EXIT
S2
S1
R1
R2
EXPLANATION
AGRICULTURE AALI
Trading Sell
BWPT
Buy on Weakness
LSIP
Trading Sell
23000
23000
22775
22550
22775
23225
540
530
555
520
530
555
1915
1915
1900
1880
1900
1930
23600 Black spinning top 570 Rsi : reversal 1950 Stoc osc : downtrend
BANK & FINANCE BMRI
Trading Sell
10425
10425
10350
10200
10350
10500
10600 Rsi : downtrend
BBRI
Buy on Weakness
11075
10950
11150
10850
10950
11150
11250 White spinning top
BBNI
Trading Sell
BBCA
Buy on Weakness
5700
5700
5625
5550
5625
5800
13100
13025
13150
12950
13025
13150
13250 Rsi : reversal
5900 Stoc osc : downtrend
6800 11100 62600 30475 4025
CONSUMER GOODS INDF ICBP GGRM UNVR CPIN
Trading Sell Buy on Weakness Trading Buy Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness
6625 10850 61700 30325 3950
6625 10750 61700 30250 3920
6550 10950 62200 30400 3980
6450 10700 60800 30175 3880
6550 10750 61250 30250 3920
6700 10950 62200 30400 3980
MAIN
Buy on Weakness
2305
2250
2345
2210
2250
2345
Stoc osc : downtrend Long legged doji Stoc osc : uptrend Macd : downtrend Rsi : reversal
2360 Rsi : uptrend
BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY ASII
Trading Buy
6950
6950
7000
6750
6850
7000
SMGR
Trading Sell
15600
15600
15450
15325
15450
15750
15900 Black spinning top
7150 Stoc osc : golden cross
INTP
Buy on Weakness
23750
23675
23900
23525
23675
23900
24100 Rsi : reversal
Trading Sell
2740
2740
2720
2705
2720
2755
2770 Macd : downtrend
PGAS
Buy on Weakness
5925
5850
5950
5800
5850
5950
6050 Long legged doji
JSMR
Buy on Weakness
6400
6350
6450
6275
6350
6450
6500 Stoc osc : overbought
TBIG
Trading Sell
8600
8600
8800
8400
8500
8800
9000 Stoc osc : downtrend
MAPI
Buy on Weakness
5100
5050
5150
5000
5050
5150
5225 Doji
RALS
Buy on Weakness
830
820
850
810
820
850
ACES
Buy on Waekness
790
770
800
760
770
800
MPPA
Buy on Weakness
3080
3060
3110
3030
3060
3110
PTBA
Buy on Weakness
12600
12550
12675
12425
12550
12675
ADRO
Trading Sell
1100
1100
1080
1060
1080
1130
ITMG
Buy on Weakness
19875
19750
20100
19600
19750
20100
ANTM
Buy on Weakness
935
925
940
915
925
940
INFRASTRUCTURE TLKM
RETAIL
870 Rsi : downtrend 820 White spinning top 3135 Long legged doji
MINING
TINS
Buy on Weakness
UNTR
Trading Buy
1195
1185
1215
1165
1185
1215
18600
18600
18850
18150
18400
18850
12800 Stoc osc : downtrend 1160 Stoc osc : downtrend 20300 Rsi : reversal 955 Gravestone doji 1235 Black spinning top 19150 Morning star
PROPERTY ASRI
Buy on Weakness
455
451
459
448
451
459
464 Black spinning top
LPKR
Trading Sell
1040
1040
1025
1015
1025
1050
1075 Black spinning top
CTRA
Buy on Weakness
1150
1140
1160
1130
1140
1160
1175 Rsi : downtrend
APLN
Trading Sell
335
335
325
310
325
350
SMRA
Buy on Weakness
1280
1265
1290
1250
1265
1290
SSIA
Buy on Weakness
735
720
745
710
720
745
BSDE
Buy on Weakness
1575
1560
1590
1545
1560
1590
1615 Black spinning top 2845 Stoc osc : downtrend
370 Stoc osc : downtrend 1315 Doji 755 Rsi : reversal
WIKA
Trading Sell
2800
2800
2775
2750
2775
2820
PTPP
Trading Sell
2585
2585
2550
2525
2550
2615
2645 Stoc osc : downtrend
ADHI
Trading Sell
2535
2535
2525
2510
2525
2550
2580 Macd : downtrend
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
3
Thursday, November 06, 2014
Global Equity Indices
Description
YTD Change %
LQ45 Nikkei 225 JCI FTSE 100 ASX 200 DJIA S&P500 STI CAC 40 Shanghai Composite DAX KOSPI Hang Seng Euro Stoxx
6-Nov-14
21.5 4.5 18.5 (3.1) 2.9 5.5 9.5 3.8 (2.0) 14.3 (2.5) (4.3) 1.7 (0.6)
Forward 2014 P/E Ratio (Best Est.)
864 17,022 5,067 6,539 5,509 17,485 2,024 3,288 4,208 2,419 9,315 1,924 23,696 3,092
16.3 18.9 16.5 13.8 15.3 15.4 16.8 14.3 14.6 9.8 13.1 10.5 11.0 14.1
Selected Indonesian Equities Description AALI ADRO AKRA ANTM ASII ASRI BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BDMN BHIT BKSL BMRI BMTR BSDE BUMI BWPT CPIN EXCL GGRM GIAA HRUM
YTD Change %
6-Nov-14
(8.4) 0.9 10.6 (14.2) 2.2 5.8 36.5 44.3 52.8 29.3 9.0 (1.5) (44.6) 32.8 2.9 22.1 (56.7) (59.4) 17.0 0.0 46.9 5.9 (48.5)
23,000 ICBP 1,100 IMAS 4,840 INCO 935 INDF 6,950 INDY 455 INTP 13,100 ITMG 5,700 JSMR 11,075 KLBF 1,125 LPKR 4,115 LSIP 335 MAIN 87 MAPI 10,425 MNCN 1,955 PGAS 1,575 PTBA 130 SMCB 540 SMGR 3,950 SSIA 5,200 TLKM 61,700 UNTR 525 UNVR 1,415 JAKPROP INDEX JAKBIND INDEX
YTD Change % 6.4 (26.5) 39.6 0.4 2.5 18.8 (30.3) 35.4 34.4 14.3 (0.8) (27.4) (7.3) 4.4 32.4 24.3 (0.2) 10.2 31.3 28.7 (2.1) 16.6
6-Nov-14 10,850 3,600 3,700 6,625 605 23,750 19,875 6,400 1,680 1,040 1,915 2,305 5,100 2,740 5,925 12,675 2,270 15,600 735 2,740 18,600 30,325
JAKFIN INDEX
Sectors Description
Description
1-mth Return %
Property Basic Industry Trade Finance Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Infrastructure Agriculture Mining
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
7.8 3.0 1.7 4.5 0.6 2.4 (0.9) 3.5 (4.9)
JAKCONS INDEX JAKMIND INDEX JAKINFR INDEX JAKAGRI INDEX JAKMINE INDEX
4
Th u rsd a y, N ovem ber 06, 2014
Dividend Ticker
Status
DPS (IDR)
Cum Date
Ex Date
Recording
Payment
GMTD
Final
50
31 October 2014
3 Oktober 2014
6 Oktober 2014
19 November 2014
ISSP
Final
2
11 November 2014
4 November 2014
7 November 2014
20 November 2014
ADMF
Final
2700
11 November 2014
12 November 2014
14 November 2014
28 November 2014
MAIN
Final
20
11 November 2014
12 November 2014
14 November 2014
28 November 2014
BWPT
Final
6
13 November 2014
14 November 2014
18 November 2014
2 December 2014
SMSM
Final
60
24 November 2014
25 November 2014
27 November 2014
11 December 2014
Rights Issue Ticker
NS:OS
Price (Rp)
Cum Date
EX Date
AKKU
132:20
100
17 Oktober 2014
20 Oktober 2014
24 Oktober-30 Oktober
ARTI
4:1
117
6 November 2014
7 November 2014
13 November - 20 November
BWPT
6:1
390-411
17 November 2014
18 November 2014
24 November -28 November
BBRM
43:100
230
20 November 2014
21 November 2014
27 November-3 Desember
BPFI
7:10
500
26 November 2014
27 November 2014
3 Desember -7 Desember
BNII
1:9
221
5 December 2014
8 December 2014
12 December—18 December
MLBI
100:1
TBA
TBA
Trading (2014)
TBA
TBA
Upcoming IPO Company
Business
Price (Rp)
PT Karisma Aksara Mediatama
Book Store Trade & Services
175-240
535.82
TBA
TBA
BCA Sekuritas Maybank Kim Eng
Shipping Transportation
600-800
2,571.43
24 Nov-26 Nov
2 Dec
Mandiri Sekuritas RHB OSK Securities
PT Soechi Lines
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
Issued Shares (Mn)
Offering date (2014)
Listing (2014)
Underwriter
5
Th u rsd a y, N ovem ber 06, 2014
Global Reference Rates
FOREX
%
Rate (USD) Change %
FED Rate
0.25
USDIDR
12,162
BI Rate
7.50
USDEUR
0.80
0.06
ECB Rate
0.05
USDJPY
115
(0.03)
BOJ Rate
0.10
USDSGD
1.30
(0.12)
BOE Rate
0.50
USDAUD
1.17
0.30
PBOC Rate
6.00
USDGBP
0.63
0.11
Description Inflation YTD (%)
(0.43)
October
September
4.19
3.71
JIBOR (IDR) (%)
8.00 1.01
Lending & Deposit Rates
Inflation YOY (%)
4.83
4.53
LIBOR (GBP) (%)
Inflation MOM (%)
0.47
0.27
SIBOR (USD) (%)
1.46
111.16
111.22
INDOGB 5Y YIELD (%)
7.81
5.01
INDOGB 10Y YIELD (%)
7.94
2.96
INDOGB 15Y YIELD (%)
8.29
Foreign Reserves (USD bn) GDP YOY Growth Rate 3Q14 (%) GDP Growth Rate 2014 (%)
Dual Listed
MACRO INDICATORS
Price (IDR) Change %
TLKM (US)
2,706.05
(1.51)
ANTM (GR)
986.44
22.64
APBN-P 2014
APBN 2014
GDP Growth (%)
5.5
6.0
Inflation (%)
5.3
5.5
11.600
10,500
3 Months SPN (%)
6.0
5.5
Indonesian Crude Oil (USD/barrel)
105
105
Oil Lifting (barrel/day)
818,000
870,000
Gas Lifting (BOE/day)
1,224,000
1,240,000
1,635
1,667
Exchange rate (USD/IDR)
Total APBN (IDR tn)
DISCLAIMER This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without notice.
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