M onday, September 01, 2014
DAILY RESEARCH
Sinarmas Investment Research/+6221 3925550/
[email protected]
JCI Index
IDX S ta tis tic s
Clo s in g
JCI
5,136.86
Tra ns a c tion Va lue (Rp tn)
5,195
5.430
Tra ns a c tion Volume (mn s ha re s)
6,117
Fore ign Ne t Buy (S e ll) (Rp bn)
5,185
(749.57)
Fore ign Ne t Buy (S e ll) YTD (Rp tn)
56.67
a s pe rc e nta ge of la st ye a r's
5,175
6.86
Tota l Ma rke t Ca pita liza tion (Rp tn)
5,165 Ke y In d ic e s
Last Price
Previous day
Clo s in g
Closed at 5136.86 JCI
Previous Day: Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Jumat (29/8), IHSG turun sebanyak –47,62 poin (-0,92%) ke level 5136,86. Ada sebanyak 137 saham yang naik, 163 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 85 saham yang stagnan. Total perdagangan hari ini sebanyak Rp 5,430 triliun. LQ45 turun –13,99 poin (-1,58%) ke level 869,19. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor perdagangan naik 0,70%, sektor konstruksi naik 0,26%, dan sektor pertambangan naik 0,01%. Sektor-sektor di zona merah adalah sektor keuangan turun 1,66%, sektor consumer goods turun 1,50%, dan sektor manufaktur turun 1,34%. Foreign net sell sebesar Rp 749,57 miliar. Indeks Nikkei jatuh 0,23%. Indeks Straits Times terpangkas 0,08%. Indeks Hang Seng naik tipis 0,00%. Indeks Shanghai naik 0,97%.
5,136.9
20.2
(1.58)
22.2
28.75
(0.66)
25.9
IDX
26.5
(0.82)
24.6
17,098.5
0.11
3.1
S &P 500
2,003.4
0.33
8.4
NAS DAQ
4,580.3
0.50
9.7
FTS E
6,819.8
0.20
1.0
NIKKEI
15,424.6
(0.23)
(5.1)
HANG S ENG
24,741.0
0.00
6.2
3,330.2
(0.34)
5.0
1,866.1
(0.51)
DOW JONES
S TRAITS TIMES KLS E
Ra te (IDR)
Ch a n g e %
(0.0) YTD Ch a n g e %
US D/IDR
11,701
0.16
4.1
EUR/IDR
15,455
0.37
8.8
JP Y/IDR
113
0.31
2.9
S GD/IDR
9,378
0.14
2.6
AUD/IDR
10,958
0.49
(0.7)
GBP /IDR
19,419
Co mmo d itie s
COAL (US D) / MT NATURAL GAS (US D) / mmBtu
0.34 1 Da y Re tu rn %
P ric e
3.7 YTD Ch a n g e %
96.0
1.49
(2.6)
76.8
-
(6.0)
0.52
(4.3)
1,287.8
(0.15)
6.7
NICKEL (US D) / MT
18,800.0
0.80
35.2
TIN (US D) / MT
21,750.0
0.07
1,984.0
(0.60)
(26.3)
RUBBER (JP Y)/KG
186.4
(0.85)
(33.5)
WHEAT/BUS HEL
556.5
1.69
(9.1)
CORN/BUS HEL
361.8
1.62
(14.9)
GOLD (US D) / OUNCE
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
(0.92)
869.2
CRUDE OIL (US D)/BARREL
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2014: ROTI 1,485
YTD Ch a n g e %
EIDO
Today’s Market:
Top Technical Buys: SCMA, MEDC, SMRA, INDY
1 Da y Re tu rn %
LQ45
FO REX
Secara teknikal indeks hari Senin (1/9) diperkirakan akan bergerak melemah di level 5118-5155. Indeks akan dipengaruhi oleh data perekonomian dalam negeri yakni data neraca perdagangan bulan Juli yang diperkirakan mengalami defisit dengan US$0,5 miliar dibandingkan sebelumnya defisit di US$0,3 miliar. Sedangkan data inflasi bulan Agustus diperkirakan ke level 4,29% YoY dibandingkan sebelumnya di level 4,53% YoY. Selain itu, Cina juga akan merilis data HSBC manufacturing PMI yang diperkirakan ke level 50,3 dibandingkan sebelumnya di 51,7.
4,799.98
CP O (MYR) / MT
4.1
(2.1)
Monday, September 01, 2014
CORPORATE NEWS •
•
•
•
PT PP Tbk (PTPP) menargetkan kontrak baru senilai Rp 15,6 triliun di semester II atau naik 87,76% disbanding semester I. Proyeksi tersebut sesuai dengan target perolehan kontrak baru sepanjang 2014 sebesar Rp 14 triliun. Perusahaan fokus meraih proyek infrastruktur yang dianggarkan dalam anggaran pendapatan dan belanja daerah (APDB). Proyek tersebut diantaranya jalan tol Medan-Kualanamu, enam ruas tol dalam kota Jakarta, serta tol Solo-Kertosono, yang telah mendapat komitmen pembangunan oleh pemerintah. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META) menargetkan akuisisi enam perusahaan per tahun. Perusahaan fokus dalam akuisisi atau merger akan dilakukan di sektor pelabuhan dan menara telekomunikasi. Tahun ini juga perusahaan memasuki segmen bisnis menara telekomunikasi dengan mengakuisisi saham mayoritas PT Tara Cell Intrabuana (TowerCo) di semester I yang merupakan perusahaan telekomunikasi yang memiliki dan mengoperasikan menara serta fasilitas pendukung lainnya di Sumatera, Jawa, dan Batam. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk (PGAS) membukukan penurunan laba bersih sebesar 19% menjadi US$ 370 juta pada semester I-2014 dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar US$ 457 juta. Kenaikan harga beli gas dari pemasok mulai 1 September 2012 dan 1 April 2013 turut mempengaruhi kenaikan beban pokok pendapatan perusahaan di semester I. Beban pokok tersebut naik 23% menjadi US$ 967,3 juta disbanding semester I 2013 sebesar US$ 786,7 juta. Kenaikan beban yang lebih besar dari pendapatan membuat laba perusahaan tergerus. (Neutral) Source: Indonesia Finance Today PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk (KIJA) meraih penjualan Rp 450 miliar di semester I-2014. Nilai ini setara dengan 37,5% dari total target seniali Rp 1,2 triliun tahun ini. Segmen penjualan lahan industri berkontribusi paling besar terhadap pencapaian perusahaan di semester I-2014. Dari pencapaian marketing sales, segmen bisnis menyumbang sekitar Rp 301,5 miliar dan sisanya berasal dari properti. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
2
Monday, September 01, 2014
TRADING VIEW
Eddy Wijaya/ Technical Analyst/62 21 3925550
These recommendations are more based on technical and just for one day trading RESEARCH DEPARTMENT TICKER
RECOMMENDATION
PRICE
ENTRY
EXIT
S2
S1
R1
R2
EXPLANATION
25800 Stoc osc : downtrend
AGRICULTURE AALI
Trading Sell
25500
25500
25350
25200
25350
25650
BWPT
Trading Buy
1030
1015
1040
1000
1015
1040
1050 Dragonfly doji
LSIP
Trading Sell
1870
1870
1850
1830
1850
1900
1930 Macd : downtrend
Trading Sell
10375
10375
10325
10250
10325
10450
10600 Stoc osc : downtrend
BBRI
Trading Sell
11050
11050
10950
10875
10950
11125
11200 Macd : downtrend
BBNI
Buy on Weakness
5350
5300
5450
5250
5300
5450
5600 Inverted hammer
BBCA
Trading Sell
11200
11200
11000
10800
11000
11400
11650 Macd : downtrend
7000 10700 54550 31725 3880
BANK & FINANCE BMRI
CONSUMER GOODS INDF ICBP GGRM UNVR CPIN
Trading Sell Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness Trading Sell Trading Sell
6875 10500 54000 31025 3845
6875 10400 53750 31025 3845
6825 10600 54250 30875 3820
6750 10300 53500 30675 3775
6825 10400 53750 30875 3820
6950 10600 54250 31350 3860
MAIN
Buy on Weakness
3370
3350
3400
3320
3350
3400
Macd : downtrend Stoc osc : uptrend Stoc osc : reversal Stoc osc : downtrend Long black candle
3430 Doji
BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY ASII
Trading Sell
7575
7575
7525
7475
7525
7650
7725 Black spinning top
SMGR
Trading Sell
16225
16125
16350
16000
16125
16350
16450 Macd : downtrend
INTP
Trading Sell
24250
24250
24150
24050
24150
24450
24650 Macd : downtrend
INFRASTRUCTURE TLKM
Trading Sell
2665
2665
2650
2635
2650
2680
2700 Macd : downtrend
PGAS
Trading Sell
5800
5800
5700
5600
5700
5900
6000 Macd : downtrend
JSMR
Trading Sell
6200
6200
6100
6000
6100
6300
6400 Stoc osc : downtrend
TBIG
Buy on Weakness
7875
7800
7950
7700
7800
7950
8050 White spinning top
MAPI
Buy on Weakness
6025
5975
6100
5900
5975
6100
6175 White spinning top
RALS
Buy on Weakness
995
985
1005
970
985
1005
1020 Macd : downtrend
ACES
Buy on Weakness
935
925
940
910
925
940
950 Long legged doji
MPPA
Buy on Weakness
3080
3060
3120
3040
3060
3120
3150 Black spinning top
PTBA
Buy on Weakness
13350
13200
13425
13100
13200
13425
13550 Macd : downtrend
ADRO
Buy on Weakness
1315
1305
1325
1295
1305
1325
1335 White spinning top
ITMG
Buy on Weakness
28175
27950
28350
27750
27950
28350
28625 Stoc osc : uptrend
ANTM
Buy on Weakness
1195
1185
1205
1175
1185
1205
1215 Stoc osc : uptrend
TINS
Trading Sell
1430
1430
1420
1410
1420
1450
1465 Rsi : downtrend
UNTR
Buy on Weakness
22150
22050
22300
21950
22050
22300
22450 Macd : downtrend
RETAIL
MINING
PROPERTY ASRI
Buy on Weakness
510
500
520
490
500
520
LPKR
Buy on Weakness
1070
1055
1090
1040
1055
1090
1110 Black spinning top
535 Rsi : uptrend
CTRA
Trading Buy
1215
1215
1230
1190
1200
1230
1245 Stoc osc : uptrend
APLN
Buy on Weakness
378
372
385
365
372
385
391 White spinning top
SMRA
Buy on Weakness
1340
1325
1350
1310
1325
1350
1375 Stoc osc : reversal
SSIA
Buy on Weakness
810
800
820
790
800
820
835 Rsi : reversal
BSDE
Trading Sell
1605
1605
1590
1580
1590
1620
1640 Macd : downtrend
WIKA
Buy on Weakness
2870
2850
2900
2835
2850
2900
2930 White spinning top
PTPP
Buy on Weakness
2465
2445
2480
2425
2445
2480
2495 Stoc osc : reversal
ADHI
Buy on Weakness
3070
3045
3090
3025
3045
3090
3120 Black spinning top
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
3
M onday, September 01, 2014
Global Equity Indices Description
YTD Change %
LQ45 Nikkei 225 JCI FTSE 100 ASX 200 DJIA S&P500 STI CAC 40 Shanghai Composite DAX KOSPI Hang Seng Euro Stoxx
1-Sep-14
22.2 (5.1) 20.2 1.0 5.6 3.1 8.4 5.0 2.0 4.8 (0.9) 2.7 6.2 2.0
Forward 2014 P/E Ratio (Best Est.)
869 15,462 5,137 6,820 5,653 17,098 2,003 3,327 4,381 2,217 9,470 2,065 24,742 3,173
16.3 17.4 16.6 14.2 15.8 15.1 16.8 14.7 15.1 8.8 13.4 16.0 11.4 14.4
Selected Indonesian Equities Description AALI ADRO AKRA ANTM ASII ASRI BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BDMN BHIT BKSL BMRI BMTR BSDE BUMI BWPT CPIN EXCL GGRM GIAA HRUM
YTD Change %
1-Sep-14
1.6 20.6 20.0 9.6 11.4 18.6 16.7 35.4 52.4 28.2 (0.7) 10.9 (24.2) 32.2 1.8 24.4 (35.0) (22.6) 13.9 14.4 28.6 (12.7) (21.8)
25,500 ICBP 1,315 IMAS 5,250 INCO 1,195 INDF 7,575 INDY 510 INTP 11,200 ITMG 5,350 JSMR 11,050 KLBF 1,115 LPKR 3,750 LSIP 377 MAIN 119 MAPI 10,375 MNCN 1,935 PGAS 1,605 PTBA 195 SMCB 1,030 SMGR 3,845 SSIA 5,950 TLKM 54,000 UNTR 433 UNVR 2,150 JAKPROP INDEX JAKBIND INDEX
YTD Change % 2.9 (10.2) 57.7 4.2 24.6 21.3 (1.1) 31.2 32.8 17.6 (3.1) 6.1 9.5 6.9 29.6 30.9 28.4 14.7 44.6 25.1 16.6 19.3
1-Sep-14 10,500 4,400 4,180 6,875 735 24,250 28,175 6,200 1,660 1,070 1,870 3,370 6,025 2,805 5,800 13,350 2,920 16,225 810 2,665 22,150 31,025
JAKFIN INDEX
Sectors Description
Description
1-mth Return %
Property Basic Industry Trade Finance Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Infrastructure Agriculture Mining
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
3.3 0.3 (0.7) 0.2 (0.7) (1.8) 0.2 (3.1) 6.5
JAKCONS INDEX JAKMIND INDEX JAKINFR INDEX JAKAGRI INDEX JAKMINE INDEX
4
M on d a y, Sep tem ber 01, 2014
Dividend Ticker
Status
DPS (IDR)
Cum Date
Ex Date
Recording
Payment
RDTX
Final
105
22 Agustus 2014
25 Agustus 2014
27 Agustus 2014
10 September 2014
EMTK
Final
79
25 Agustus 2014
26 Agustus 2014
28 Agustus 2014
10 September 2014
TBLA
Final
12
28 Agustus 2014
29 Agustus 2014
2 September 2014
10 September 2014
JAWA
Final
1.80
29 Agustus 2014 1 September 2014
3 September 2014
17 September 2014
ACST
Final
39.50
29 Agustus 2014 1 September 2014
3 September 2014
17 September 2014
NELY
Final
4
1 September 2014 2 September 2014
4 September 2014
18 September 2014
LTLS
Final
29
8 September 2014 9 September 2014
11 September 2014
25 September 2014
PTIS
Final
8
9 September 2014 9 September 2014
11 September 2014
25 September 2014
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
5
M o n d a y, Sep tem ber 01, 2014
Global Reference Rates
FOREX
%
Rate (USD) Change %
FED Rate
0.25
USDIDR
11,699
BI Rate
7.50
USDEUR
0.76
0.03
ECB Rate
0.15
USDJPY
104
(0.04)
BOJ Rate
0.10
USDSGD
1.25
(0.06)
BOE Rate
0.50
USDAUD
1.07
0.13
PBOC Rate
6.00
USDGBP
0.60
0.03
(0.08)
Description
July
June
Lending & Deposit Rates
Inflation YTD (%)
2.94
1.99
JIBOR (IDR) (%)
8.35 1.05
Inflation YOY (%)
4.53
6.70
LIBOR (GBP) (%)
Inflation MOM (%)
0.93
0.43
SIBOR (USD) (%)
1.46
INDOGB 5Y YIELD (%)
7.96
5.12
INDOGB 10Y YIELD (%)
8.16
1.20
INDOGB 15Y YIELD (%)
8.53
Foreign Reserves (USD bn) GDP YOY Growth Rate 1Q14 (%) GDP Growth Rate 2014 (%)
107.05
Dual Listed
MACRO INDICATORS
Price (IDR) Change %
TLKM (US)
2,690.77
0.00
ANTM (GR)
1,029.06
(6.94)
APBN-P 2014
APBN 2014
GDP Growth (%)
5.5
6.0
Inflation (%)
5.3
5.5
11.600
10,500
3 Months SPN (%)
6.0
5.5
Indonesian Crude Oil (USD/barrel)
105
105
Oil Lifting (barrel/day)
818,000
870,000
Gas Lifting (BOE/day)
1,224,000
1,240,000
1,635
1,667
Exchange rate (USD/IDR)
Total APBN (IDR tn)
DISCLAIMER This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without notice.
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