April 03, 20 13
ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report
RESEARCH DEBT MARKET Indonesia Govt Bonds Benchmark Yield
FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY
USD/IDR EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
Last
-1D chg (+/- %)
-1W chg (+/- %)
-1M chg (+/- %)
9,720 1.28 93.22 1.52
0.00 0.23 -1.05 0.20
-0.02 -0.65 -2.91 0.84
0.43 -1.35 -0.40 1.26
TREASURY & MONEY MARKET Last
IDR JIBOR O/N 4.18 1M 4.60 3M 4.90 USD LIBOR O/N 0.16 1M 0.20 3M 0.28 BI Rate BI Rate 5.75 IDR Average Deposit 1M 5.37 3M 5.44 12M 5.44 Others Fed Fund (o/n) 0.16 US T-Bills 1M 0.05 US T-Bills 3M 0.07 SIBOR 1M 0.20 EURIBOR 1M 0.12
-1D chg -1W chg -1M chg (+/- bps) (+/- bps) (+/- bps)
0.00 -4.60 -4.90
0.00 -4.60 -4.90
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
IDMA Index
0.00
7.50
0.04 -0.02 -0.03
0.06 0.05 -0.02
0.05 -0.04 -0.05
0.11 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 -0.15 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.00 -0.05 -0.05 0.00 0.00
250 200 150 100 50 0 25-Nov
8-Dec
2Y
21-Dec
3-Jan
5Y
16-Jan
29-Jan
3.50 2.50 1.50 0.50 13-Nov
26-Nov
10 Y U.S. T reasu ry No te
9-Dec
0.21 0.11 0.15 0.22 0.22 0.25 0.21 0.16 0.22 0.19 0.24
Last
-1D chg (+/- %)
-1W chg (+/- %)
-1M chg (+/- %)
117.32
-0.37
-0.88
-0.40
Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve
6.50
5.50
4.50
3.50 1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
Last
6Y
7Y
8Y
-1 Week
Last Yield (%)
9 Y 10 Y 15 Y -1 Month
Volume (RpBn)
Most Active Government Bonds FR0063 101.04 5.49 SR005 101.16 5.55 SPN12130704 98.90 4.46 ORI008 103.75 4.75 FR0064 103.14 5.81 FR0066 101.00 5.02 FR0058 119.24 6.48 ORI009 102.53 5.18 FR0061 111.05 5.44 SPN12130606 99.22 4.50
1,223.5 546.7 495.0 425.1 401.3 364.5 149.6 111.8 94.0 93.0
Most Active Corporate Bonds ADMF01BCN3 100.44 7.55 BNGA01SB 107.75 9.09 APLN01B 103.65 9.72 BTPN01ACN3 100.10 7.68 ISAT05B 101.90 10.10 PPKT02 100.00 10.74 ANTM01BCN1 110.00 7.47 ASDF01ACN2 100.30 6.09 FIFA01ACN1 99.80 6.30 ADMF02CCN1 100.18 7.78
100.0 68.0 60.0 40.0 36.0 30.0 29.0 20.0 20.0 11.0
10Y
10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison
31-Oct
4.54 0.22 0.11 4.43 0.04 0.05 4.55 0.00 0.14 4.80 -0.03 0.09 5.11 0.03 0.07 5.20 0.03 0.13 5.26 0.03 0.07 5.36 0.02 0.09 5.44 -0.01 0.13 5.59 0.02 0.09 6.31 0.04 0.12 Indonesia Bond Index
Last Price
300
12-Nov
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year
0.00 -4.60 -4.90
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
30-Oct
Last Yield -1D chg -1W chg -1M chg (%) (+/- bps) (+/- bps) (+/- bps)
22-Dec
4-Jan
17-Jan
30-Jan
10 Y Indone sia S overig n US$ Bond
Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities: www.bnisecurities.co.id
Data Source: Bloomberg & CT P
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - April 03, 2013 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 4Q11 Oct
1Q12
Nov
Dec
GDP Real (YoY)
Jan
2Q12
Feb
6.49
Mar
Apr
May
6.32
3Q12 Jun
Jul
Aug
4Q12 Sep
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
6.17
6.37
Private Consumption
4.95
4.94
5.24
5.68
Government Consumption
2.78
5.94
7.35
-3.22
11.52
9.97
12.32
10.02
Investment (GFCF)
1Q13
Oct
Inflation CPI (YoY)
4.42
4.15
3.79
3.65
3.56
3.97
4.50
4.45
4.53
4.56
4.58
4.31
4.61
4.32
4.30
4.57
5.31
CPI (MoM)
-0.12
0.34
0.57
0.76
0.05
0.07
0.21
0.07
0.62
0.70
0.95
0.01
0.16
0.07
0.54
1.03
0.75
646,082
Consumption Motorcycle Sales (Units)
715,176 642,126 460,535 645,863 666,136 619,678 617,508 611,251 541,918 579,077 429,236 620,499
Automobile Sales (Units)
86,345
67,655
80,325
76,427
86,486
87,917
87,144
95,541 101,746 102,511
76,445 102,100
Consumer Confidence Index
116.20
114.30
116.60
119.20
111.70
107.30
102.50
109.00
602.10 1,015.50
626,901
621,224
485,166
106,754
103,703
89,456
96,704
114.40
113.50
115.70
117.70
119.50
120.10
116.40
116.20
-207.20 -1,286.00
Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn)
828.60
925.80
-764.70
-263.80
233.10
549.50
-1,883.90
-618.10
-188.10
-171.00
Export (YoY)
1,424.30 1,841.60 17.80
10.20
1.50
6.60
8.90
5.40
-2.30
-8.00
-16.00
-7.60
-24.70
-9.40
-9.60
-5.30
-9.90
-1.20
Import (YoY)
28.16
18.35
25.32
15.89
26.53
12.70
13.77
14.91
10.98
0.91
-8.37
1.18
10.78
10.01
-5.42
6.82
Foreign Reserve (USD bn)
113.96
111.32
110.12
111.99
112.22
110.49
116.41
111.53
106.50
106.56
108.99
110.17
110.30
111.29
112.78
108.78
Net Int'l Reserve (IDR tn)
972.24
985.15
965.87
980.78
991.69
981.89 1020.77 1015.99
968.45
977.16 1008.23 1023.02
1025.91
1034.39
1056.08
1021.36
Reserves
Moneter (YoY) M1 Money Supply
19.70
16.85
19.42
15.25
16.62
23.02
23.31
22.50
22.51
20.65
16.54
21.25
16.54
20.04
16.42
13.23
M2 Money Supply
15.98
16.26
16.43
17.17
17.75
18.79
20.24
20.88
20.91
19.12
17.84
18.24
18.07
17.40
14.86
12.84
Financial Sector BI rate (% p.a.)
6.50
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
SUN 10 years (%)
6.34
6.73
6.03
5.34
5.56
5.93
5.96
6.51
6.15
5.71
6.26
5.97
5.71
5.38
5.19
5.33
5.35
Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD, end of period)
8,870
9,080
9,075
9,005
9,035
9,143
9,192
9,485
9,385
9,445
9,539
9,579
9,605
9,593
9,638
9,696
9,664
Source: Bloomberg & CEIC Government Bond Ownership as of March 25, 2013 (Rp tn) Holders Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Banks 265.03 293.16 297.98 Bank Indonesia 7.84 3.12 20.36 Mutual Fund 47.22 46.95 48.60 Insurance Companies 93.09 100.63 106.86 Foreign Investor 222.86 224.72 224.42 Pension Fund 34.39 33.93 34.56 Securities Companies 0.14 0.53 0.27 Individu Others 53.05 57.54 58.14 Total 723.61 760.58 791.18
Sep-12 317.43 4.63 47.01 109.54 240.98 34.35 0.51
Oct-12 311.7 10.62 46.49 108.02 250.33 35.8 0.41
Nov-12 304.02 6.23 45.87 108.05 269.85 35.29 0.33
Dec-12 299.66 3.07 43.19 83.42 270.52 56.46 0.3
Jan-13 303.1 2 42.82 85.6 270.88 57.01 0.43
58.35 812.80
70.63 834.00
64.92 834.56
63.64 820.27
63.08 824.92
Feb-13 1-Mar-13 8-Mar-13 15-Mar-13 18-Mar-13 19-Mar-13 20-Mar-13 21-Mar-13 22-Mar-13 25-Mar-13 309.93 305.8 306.2 304.66 306.88 305.17 306.84 307.36 308.52 310.56 4.6 7.65 6.96 8.44 7.35 8.12 6.73 5.93 6.04 3.93 43.04 43.03 43.11 42.91 42.87 42.71 42.6 42.61 42.17 41.91 117.44 117.53 117.63 116.7 116.71 116.79 116.86 117.56 117.74 117.94 281.63 283.19 283.80 283.77 282.68 283.77 283.67 284.23 283.25 283.30 27.55 27.57 27.35 26.81 26.9 26.96 26.9 26.92 26.97 26.99 1.18 0.78 0.69 0.83 0.8 0.8 0.78 0.78 0.74 0.84 30.29 30.1 28.61 28.21 28.14 28.08 28 27.87 27.8 27.77 40.72 40.75 40 40.67 40.67 40.61 40.62 40.64 40.63 40.63 856.39 856.39 854.35 853.00 853.00 853.00 853.00 853.90 853.87 853.87
Source: DJPU Kemenkeu
NEWS Pemulihan Ekonomi Global
Pemulihan Ekonomi global diperkirakan akan terus berlanjut dan akan mulai terasa dampaknya pada semester kedua tahun 2013. Kepala Ekonom OECD, Pier Carlo Padoan, menyampaikan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi global terus mengalami peningkatan dimana proses pemulihan tersebut masih tetap disokong oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika, China dan India sebagai mesin ekonomi global. Hal senada juga disampaikan oleh Kepala Ekonom Danareksa Research Institute Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa dan Ekonom Senior Standchart Faui Ichsan. OECD memperkirakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika dan Jepang akan berada pada level hingga diatas 3%, sementara pertumbuhan negara G7 akan berada pada kisaran 2.4%. Sementara itu pertumbuhan ekonomi negara berkembang seperti China masih lebih tinggi pada kisaran 8% dibandingkan negara maju. Krisis Siprus diperkirakan tidak menimbulkan dampak yang signifikan terhadap upaya pemulihan ekonomi global namun demikian tetap akan berdampak negative bagi proses pemulihan di Europe Zone. Seiring dengan pemulihan perekonomian global, pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia diperkirakan akan mengalami peningkatan dengan terjadinya peningkatan permintaan barang oleh Amerika, Jepang, China dan negaranegara lain untuk memenuhi permintaan kebutuhan barang dan jasa mereka, untuk memenuhi kebutuhan tersebut, diperkirakan akan meningkatkan penyerapan jumlah tenaga kerja dalam negeri. Laporan BPS menyebutkan bahwa nilai ekspor non-migas Indonesia untuk bulan Februari 2013 senilai USD 12.45 milyar mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0.89% dibanding ekspor Februari 2012, namun demikian secara kumulatif masih tetap terjadi penurunan nilai ekspor sebesar 4.5% dibanding ekspor pada tahun lalu pada bulan yang sama. Setelah menerima bantuan dari EU-IMF, Pemerintahan Siprus berencana untuk melakukan penyelidikan mendalam atas praktek perbankan yang dilakukan oleh para pengelola bank di negara tersebut. Krisis Siprus ini merupakan babak lanjutan dari krisis Eropa yang mendera beberapa negara anggota zona Eropa dimana bank-bank Siprus mengalami kerugian atas eksposure kepemilikan obligasi Yunani yang mengalami kondisi default. Persyaratan yang ketat untuk mendapatkan dana talangan dari para kreditur membuat Siprus melakukan beberapa penghematan diantaranya pengenaan pajak tabungan yang sangat memberatkan deposan di negara tersebut yang dipastikan akan melemahkan daya beli masyarakat dan berpotensi 2 mengurangi pertumbuhan ekonomi Siprus untuk tahun 2013.
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - April 03, 2013
BRICS Menunda Peluncuran Bank Pembangunan
Usai melakukan pembicaraan secara intensif di Durban, Afrika Selatan, lima negara anggota BRICS (Brasil, Rusia, India, China dan Afrika Selatan), sepakat untuk memulai proses negosiasi pendirian tersebut secara formal untuk mengimplementasikan ide pembangunan Bank tersebut untuk memenuhi kebutuhan belanja infrastruktur di kelima negara anggota BRICS yang diperkirakan akan mencapai USD 4.5 Trilyun selama lima tahun kedepan dan juga untuk menghadapi krisis Zona Eropa yang diperkirakan akan mengalami kontraksi untuk beberapa tahun kedepan dengan modal awal pendirian bank tersebut yang disepakati sebesar USD 50 Milyar. Kehadiran Bank Pembangunan BRICS tersebut diperkirakan dapat menjadi alternative bagi negara-negara di dunia untuk mendapatkan pinjaman yang selama ini diperoleh dari IMF dan Bank Dunia yang cenderung disertai dengan persyaratan yang sangat ketat.
3
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - April 03, 2013
Government Bond Closing Price as of April 02, 2012
Series FR0019 FR0049 FR0020 FR0051 FR0026 FR0027 FR0030 FR0055 FR0060 FR0028 FR0032 FR0038 FR0048 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0046 FR0039 FR0044 FR0040 FR0037 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0045 FR0050 FR0057 FR0062
Maturity Coupon Last Price 15-Jun-13 14.25% 102.10 15-Sep-13 9.00% 102.19 15-Dec-13 14.28% 106.95 15-May-14 11.25% 107.52 15-Oct-14 11.00% 110.03 15-Jun-15 9.50% 110.55 15-May-16 10.75% 117.59 15-Sep-16 7.38% 108.42 15-Apr-17 6.25% 105.32 15-Jul-17 10.00% 119.62 15-Jul-18 15.00% 145.58 15-Aug-18 11.60% 130.29 15-Sep-18 9.00% 118.31 15-Sep-19 11.50% 134.26 15-Nov-20 11.00% 135.40 15-Jun-21 12.80% 148.47 15-Jul-21 8.25% 118.53 15-May-22 7.00% 110.84 15-Jun-22 12.90% 152.35 15-Jul-22 10.25% 133.52 15-Jul-23 9.50% 129.86 15-Aug-23 11.75% 147.00 15-Sep-24 10.00% 134.25 15-Sep-25 11.00% 142.34 15-Sep-26 12.00% 152.88 15-Sep-26 8.38% 119.64 15-May-27 7.00% 107.32 15-Jul-27 10.25% 137.36 15-Feb-28 10.00% 135.46 15-Aug-30 10.50% 142.86 15-Jul-31 9.50% 132.81 15-Jun-32 8.25% 119.19 15-May-37 9.75% 138.08 15-Jul-38 10.50% 147.93 15-May-41 9.50% 137.07 15-Apr-42 6.38% 98.65
YTM 3.38% 3.99% 4.04% 4.26% 4.17% 4.40% 4.62% 4.70% 4.78% 4.86% 5.05% 5.08% 5.11% 5.18% 5.29% 5.40% 5.44% 5.47% 5.55% 5.57% 5.63% 5.68% 5.85% 6.10% 6.16% 6.20% 6.21% 6.25% 6.29% 6.38% 6.42% 6.49% 6.58% 6.58% 6.59% 6.48%
Source: Bloomberg
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Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - April 03, 2013
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