13 Februari 2014
ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report
RESEARCH
Data Pasar Hari Kerja Sebelumnya Keterangan BI Rate JISDOR
Perubahan Tingkat Suku Bunga dan Kurs Acuan BI Perubahan Rate dan Kurs (%) Hari Ini (%, IDR) (H‐1) (M‐1) (B‐1) 7.50 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 12,115.00 ‐0.48% ‐0.47% ‐0.67%
Suku Bunga Pinjaman Rupiah 14.85 Dollar AS 5.74
‐0.25% 0.00%
0.44% 0.01%
‐0.35% 0.25%
Rata‐rata Suku Bunga Deposito 1 Bulan 6.69 3 Bulan 6.81 6.80 6 Bulan 1 Tahun 6.49 2 Tahun 6.33
0.25% 0.47% 2.19% ‐0.11% 0.00%
0.54% 0.65% 0.46% ‐1.07% 1.28%
0.71% 1.60% 2.66% 1.03% 1.39%
Keterangan O/N 1 Minggu 1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 1 Tahun
Keterangan IHSG LQ45 FTSI KLCI Hangseng NIKKEI SHANGHAI Dow Jones S&P FTSE100
Hari Ini (%) 5.88 6.50 7.80 7.99 8.14 8.28
IDR JIBOR Perubahan Rate (%) (H‐1) (M‐1) ‐0.02% ‐0.16% 0.00% 0.01% ‐0.06% ‐0.15% ‐0.03% ‐0.02% ‐0.03% 0.05% 0.00% 0.26%
(B‐1) 0.21% 1.56% 3.47% 1.31% 1.34% 0.71%
Indeks Bursa Global Perubahan Indeks (%) Indeks Hari Ini (H‐1) (M‐1) (B‐1) 4,496.29 0.58% 2.55% 5.67% 756.28 0.55% 3.03% 6.30% 3,035.45 0.21% 2.55% ‐3.45% 1,825.64 0.08% 2.23% ‐0.05% 22,285.79 1.47% 4.78% ‐2.45% 14,800.06 0.56% 4.37% ‐6.99% 2,109.96 0.30% 3.78% 4.80% 15,994.77 1.22% 3.56% ‐2.74% 1,819.75 1.11% 3.68% ‐1.00% 6,694.33 0.32% 3.66% ‐0.68%
Riil PDB (YoY) Konsumsi Swasta Konsumsi Pemerintah Investasi (GFCF) Inflasi Inflasi (CPI/YoY) Inflasi (CPI/MoM) Konsumsi Penjualan Motor (Unit) Penjualan Mobil (Unit) Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen Perdagangan Luar Negri Neraca Berjalan (USD juta) Ekspor (YoY) Impor (YoY) Cadangan Cadangan Devisa (USD miliar) Jumlah Cad. Int'l Bersih (IDR triliun)
Moneter (YoY) M1 Uang Beredar M2 Uang Beredar Sektor Keuangan BI rate (% p.a.) SUN 10 tahun (%) Nilai Tukar (IDR/USD, akhir periode)
Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Mata Uang Utama Dunia Perubahan Harga (%) Keterangan Harga Hari Ini (H‐1) (M‐1) (B‐1) SGD/IDR 9,553.21 ‐0.39% 0.95% 2.03% AUD/IDR 10,938.07 ‐0.42% 2.31% 2.73% EUR/IDR 16,484.55 ‐0.56% 0.27% 1.89% JPY/IDR 117.98 ‐0.38% ‐1.75% 3.86% GBP/IDR 19,973.77 ‐0.10% 2.01% 2.39% HKD/IDR 1,558.27 ‐0.56% 0.81% 2.10% CHF/IDR 13,460.01 ‐0.52% ‐0.17% 2.65% CNY/IDR 1,993.07 ‐0.63% ‐0.85% 1.91% USD/IDR 12,085.00 ‐0.58% ‐0.81% 2.11% Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Utama Dunia terhadap Dollar AS Perubahan Harga (%) Keterangan Harga Hari Ini (H‐1) (M‐1) (B‐1) EUR/USD 1.36 0.01% 0.78% ‐0.23% JPY/USD 102.43 ‐0.19% 0.97% ‐1.68% HKD/USD 7.76 ‐0.01% ‐0.08% 0.02% SGD/USD 1.27 ‐0.19% ‐0.24% 0.06% AUD/USD 0.91 0.15% 1.59% 0.62% CNY/USD 6.06 0.05% 0.03% 0.19% GBP/USD 1.65 0.46% 1.32% 0.26% CHF/USD 0.90 ‐0.06% ‐0.64% ‐0.52%
Harga Komoditas Utama Global Perubahan Harga (%) Harga Hari Ini (H‐1) (M‐1) (B‐1)
Keterangan Minyak dan Gas Minyak NYMEX Minyak Brent Gas NYMEX
100.62 108.99 4.933
0.68% 0.29% 2.26%
3.33% 2.58% ‐1.93%
8.25% 2.23% 22.68%
1287.3 20.2065 1396.28
‐0.32% ‐0.17% 0.58%
2.34% 1.57% 1.12%
3.11% 0.24% ‐2.83%
440.5 591 1333.25 139.25 15.76 89.15 880 2597
‐0.23% 0.13% ‐0.11% ‐0.14% 0.19% ‐0.06% 0.00% 0.00%
‐0.62% 0.60% 1.29% ‐4.03% ‐3.79% 3.57% 2.03% 2.63%
1.79% 3.87% 4.28% 13.30% 0.25% 7.75% 2.03% 3.49%
Bahan Tambang Emas Spot Perak Spot Platina Spot
Hasil Bumi Jagung CBOT Gandum CBOT Kedelai CBOT Kopi ICE Gula ICE Kapas ICE CPO Rotterdam CPO Malaysia
INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI 2Q13 Apr Mei Jun 5.83 5.15 2.13 4.45
Jul
3Q13 Aug
Sep 5.62 5.48 8.99 5.9
Okt
4Q13 Nov
5.90 1.03
8.61 3.29
8.79 1.12
8.40 -0.35
8.32 0.09
644,668 99,697 112.80
659,504 104,268 117.10
702,423 112,178 108.60
488,983 77,964 107.80
675,902 115,973 107.10
-1,702.60 -8.70 -2.80
-527.10 -4.10 -2.21
-877.20 -4.40 -6.53
-2,329.10 -6.20 6.50
71.60 -6.90 -5.80
104.80 985.39
107.27 1009.46
105.15 997.22
98.10 940.33
92.67 917.35
15.13 15.02
13.42 14.01
15.44 14.72
9.80 14.42
10.15 11.81
5.75 5.35 9,664
5.75 5.57 9,720
5.75 5.50 9,723
5.75 5.98 9,795
6.00 7.13 9,925
Jan
1Q13 Feb
4.57 1.03
5.31 0.75
5.90 0.63
5.57 -0.10
5.47 -0.03
646,082 96,718 116.20
649,434 103,279 116.80
665,334 95,996 116.80
658,673 102,257 113.40
-74.70 -1.30 6.15
-297.70 -4.30 3.00
137.50 -12.90 -8.81
108.78 1021.36
105.18 983.19
13.15 14.41 5.75 5.33 9,696
Mar 6.05 5.24 0.42 5.5
Des 5.72 5.25 6.45 4.37
Jan
8.37 0.12
8.38 0.55
8.22 1.07
714,264 112,039 109.50
687,329 111,841 114.30
551,283 97,694 116.50
-803.00 -7.50 1.05
24.30 2.40 -8.91
789.30 -2.30 -10.54
1,525.10 10.30 -0.79
93.00 978.56
95.68 1071.04
97.00 1051.19
96.96 1119.80
99.39 1169.69
14.03 14.69
10.80 13.29
9.08 14.57
10.48 13.02
8.62 12.68
5.40 12.70
6.50 7.83 10,278
7.00 8.42 11,293
7.25 8.50 11,518
7.25 7.47 11,280
7.50 8.66 11,755
7.50 8.45 12,171
100.65
7.5 9.031 12,213
Sumber: Bloomberg & CEIC
Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities: www.bnisecurities.co.id
1
Data Pasar Hari Kerja Sebelumnya Keterangan 1 Tahun 2 Tahun 3 Tahun 4 Tahun 5 Tahun 6 Tahun 7 Tahun 8 Tahun 9 Tahun 10 Tahun 15 Tahun 20 Tahun 30 Tahun
Perubahan Imbal Hasil SUN Seri FR Imbal Hasil (%) Hari Ini (H‐1) (M‐1) 6.67 7.14 7.26 7.40 7.48 7.55 7.61 7.76 7.75 7.90 8.01 8.10 7.98 8.00 8.09 8.38 8.48 8.60 8.57 8.62 8.70 8.70 8.79 8.86 8.85 8.99 9.06 8.82 8.97 9.07 9.36 9.48 9.60 9.41 9.52 9.67 9.59 9.71 9.83
Kurva Imbal Hasil SUN Seri FR
(B‐1) 6.98 7.92 8.03 8.20 8.22 8.39 8.51 8.64 8.78 8.80 9.33 9.41 9.56
( % ) 12.00 10.00 8.00 Hari Ini
6.00 (B‐1)
4.00 2.00 0.00
Harga SUN Seri FR Pemerintah per 12‐Feb‐14 Kode SUN FR0051 FR0026 FR0027 FR0030 FR0055 FR0060 FR0028 FR0066 FR0032 FR0038 FR0048 FR0069 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0063 FR0046 FR0039 FR0070 FR0044 FR0040 FR0037 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0064 FR0071 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0065 FR0068 FR0045 FR0050 FR0057 FR0062 FR0067
Kupon 11.25% 11.00% 9.50% 10.75% 7.38% 6.25% 10.00% 5.25% 15.00% 11.60% 9.00% 7.88% 11.50% 11.00% 12.80% 8.25% 7.00% 12.90% 10.25% 5.63% 9.50% 11.75% 8.38% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 8.38% 7.00% 10.25% 10.00% 6.13% 9.00% 10.50% 9.50% 8.25% 6.63% 8.38% 9.75% 10.50% 9.50% 6.38% 8.75%
Harga 101.31 102.72 102.85 106.61 99.51 95.89 106.50 90.74 125.77 113.49 103.74 99.90 114.09 112.66 122.37 97.62 89.75 123.17 107.68 80.33 103.54 117.93 97.45 105.85 112.45 120.12 93.28 82.39 106.44 104.79 74.91 97.51 109.09 100.64 89.88 75.43 91.21 101.94 108.45 99.64 69.54 91.62
Imbal Hasil 5.74% 6.72% 7.21% 7.49% 7.58% 7.73% 7.79% 7.85% 7.96% 7.98% 8.01% 7.90% 8.29% 8.49% 8.62% 8.69% 8.77% 8.90% 8.93% 8.77% 8.93% 8.91% 8.76% 9.12% 9.23% 9.26% 9.29% 9.34% 9.39% 9.38% 9.34% 9.31% 9.40% 9.42% 9.42% 9.41% 9.35% 9.54% 9.60% 9.53% 9.49% 9.61%
Rentang Harga dan Yield Wajar Rentang Harga Wajar Rentang Yield Wajar Batas Atas
102.44 103.71 103.08 107.74 99.06 95.91 106.71 90.86 126.90 113.13 103.89 99.20 115.00 112.62 121.48 96.95 89.29 124.18 109.90 80.84 103.99 120.03 97.19 107.01 114.56 122.23 95.02 83.50 107.12 96.05 76.79 97.02 108.65 100.47 91.11 77.04 90.41 106.31 113.55 101.77 71.61 92.12
Batas Bawah Batas Bawah
100.95 102.28 101.70 105.97 98.09 94.40 105.36 88.80 124.12 110.52 101.26 98.48 113.13 110.48 117.61 93.91 86.33 121.55 105.84 78.72 99.67 115.40 95.84 102.38 109.57 116.71 92.54 80.05 101.78 90.69 74.31 95.24 102.79 97.41 87.26 74.37 89.42 99.95 106.70 96.62 67.21 90.40
1.37% 5.23% 7.02% 6.96% 7.78% 7.73% 7.72% 7.82% 7.69% 8.06% 7.97% 8.06% 8.10% 8.50% 8.76% 8.82% 8.85% 8.75% 8.57% 8.68% 8.86% 8.62% 8.80% 8.96% 8.95% 9.01% 9.04% 9.17% 9.31% 10.55% 9.06% 9.37% 9.45% 9.44% 9.26% 9.19% 9.45% 9.09% 9.11% 9.32% 9.21% 9.55%
Durasi
Batas Atas
7.15% 7.39% 8.11% 7.79% 8.21% 8.29% 8.17% 8.44% 8.35% 8.72% 8.66% 8.24% 8.49% 8.90% 9.41% 9.41% 9.42% 9.14% 9.23% 9.07% 9.55% 9.28% 9.01% 9.63% 9.61% 9.67% 9.40% 9.70% 10.00% 11.34% 9.44% 9.60% 10.15% 9.81% 9.75% 9.56% 9.57% 9.75% 9.77% 9.86% 9.83% 9.74%
0.25 0.64 1.27 2.02 2.32 2.85 2.97 3.79 3.48 3.51 3.73 4.23 4.19 4.94 5.12 5.63 6.17 5.56 5.89 6.95 6.44 5.97 6.72 6.62 6.82 7.00 7.55 8.18 7.70 7.60 8.74 8.14 8.12 8.80 9.16 9.69 9.25 9.47 9.61 9.89 10.53 9.90
Durasi Modifikasi 0.24 0.62 1.22 1.94 2.24 2.75 2.86 3.64 3.34 3.38 3.59 4.07 4.02 4.73 4.91 5.40 5.91 5.32 5.64 6.66 6.16 5.71 6.43 6.33 6.52 6.69 7.22 7.82 7.35 7.26 8.35 7.77 7.75 8.40 8.75 9.26 8.84 9.04 9.17 9.44 10.05 9.45
Sisa Waktu 0.25 0.67 1.33 2.25 2.58 3.16 3.41 4.25 4.41 4.50 4.58 5.16 5.58 6.75 7.33 7.41 8.25 8.33 8.41 9.25 9.41 9.50 10.08 10.58 11.58 12.58 12.58 13.25 13.41 14.00 14.25 15.08 16.50 17.41 18.33 19.25 20.08 23.25 24.41 27.25 28.16 30.00
Waktu Jt.Tempo 15‐May‐14 15‐Oct‐14 15‐Jun‐15 15‐May‐16 15‐Sep‐16 15‐Apr‐17 15‐Jul‐17 15‐May‐18 15‐Jul‐18 15‐Aug‐18 15‐Sep‐18 15‐Apr‐19 15‐Sep‐19 15‐Nov‐20 15‐Jun‐21 15‐Jul‐21 15‐May‐22 15‐Jun‐22 15‐Jul‐22 15‐May‐23 15‐Jul‐23 15‐Aug‐23 15‐Mar‐24 15‐Sep‐24 15‐Sep‐25 15‐Sep‐26 15‐Sep‐26 15‐May‐27 15‐Jul‐27 15‐Feb‐28 15‐May‐28 15‐Mar‐29 15‐Aug‐30 15‐Jul‐31 15‐Jun‐32 15‐May‐33 15‐Mar‐34 15‐May‐37 15‐Jul‐38 15‐May‐41 15‐Apr‐42 15‐Feb‐44
Source: Bloomberg, BNIS Calculation
2
Laporan Harian Ekonomi & Pasar Utang - 13 Februari 2014
BERITA * Presiden Yudhoyono akan segera melantik Menteri Perdagangan baru, M. Lutfi, menggantikan posisi Gita Wirjawan yang mengundurkan diri beberapa waktu yang lalu, pelantikan tersebut rencananya akan dilaksanakan hari Jumat (14/2). M. Lutfi menyatakan bahwa dia akan fokus dalam upaya stabilisasi harga dan peningkatan ekspor yang dibarengi dengan upaya negosiasi perdagangan dengan negara-negara maju ntuk mencapai hasil maksimal hingga berakhirnya masa tugas kabinet pada bulan Oktober nanti. * Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) menargetkan serapan investasi sektor manufaktur oleh Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) hingga mencapai 60% dari target PMA pada tahun 2014 ini dibandingkan serapan investasi pada sektor manufaktur tahun 2013 sebanyak 50% dari total investasi PMA. * Anggaran Pemerintah selama bulan Januari mengalami defisit IDR 5.3 triliun dimana angka tersebut sesuai dengan perencanaan Kementerian Keuangan yang menerapkan strategi front loading yang menumpuk defisit anggaran di awal tahun tahun. * Bank of England (BOE), Rabu (12/2), menaikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris tahun 2014 hingga mencpaai 3.4% dibandingkan dengan proyeksi sebelumnya sebesar 2.8%.
Perbandingan Yield Obligasi 30Y IDR Vs. USD
Perbandingan Yield Obligasi 10Y IDR Vs. USD ( % )
( % )
10
12
8
10 IDR 1 0Y
6
USD 30Y
6
4
4
2
2 0
0 12‐Nov‐13
IDR 30Y
8
USD 10 Y
4‐Dec‐13
26‐Dec‐13
17‐Jan‐14
8‐Feb‐14
Persentase Perubahan Harga Obligasi Global 10 Tahun Keterangan Harga Perubahan Harga (%) Hari Ini (H‐1) (M‐1) (B‐1) Brazil 94.95 0.00% ‐0.42% 0.48% Rusia 94.21 0.17% ‐0.23% ‐1.04% India 100.36 ‐0.21% ‐0.41% ‐0.07% Indonesia 97.45 1.08% 1.78% ‐0.07% China 96.98 0.10% 0.22% 1.06% Turki 93.33 ‐0.07% 0.45% ‐0.63% Malaysia 94.42 ‐0.07% 0.13% ‐0.65% Filipina 157.25 0.07% ‐0.55% ‐2.99% Persentase Perubahan Harga Obligasi Global 10 Tahun Keterangan Harga Perubahan Harga (%) Hari Ini (H‐1) (M‐1) (B‐1) USA 100.08 ‐0.12% ‐0.61% 1.02% UK 95.53 ‐0.38% ‐0.83% 0.78% Prancis 99.72 ‐0.03% ‐0.49% 2.04% Jerman 103.51 ‐0.07% ‐0.49% 2.11% Jepang* 0.61 0.33% 1.68% ‐13.20% Korea Selatan 99.99 ‐0.19% ‐0.05% 1.21% Singapura 102.66 ‐0.22% ‐0.31% 0.46%
12‐Nov‐13
4‐Dec‐13
26‐Dec‐13
17‐Jan‐14
8‐Feb‐14
NDF 1 Bulan
Perubahan NDF Rate Rate (bps) Hari Ini (bps) (H‐1) (M‐1) 11,978 12,005 12,080
(B‐1) 11,915
NDF 3 Bulan
12,123
12,155
12,215
12,095
NDF 6 Bulan
12,338
12,365
12,450
12,375
NDF 12 Bulan
12,803
12,833
12,935
12,828
Keterangan
*Angka dalam persentase imbal hasil
Kepemilikan SBN yang Dapat Diperdagangkan per 28 Januari 2014 (dalam triliun Rupiah) Holders Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-13 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 10-Feb-14 Bank 309.93 315.89 298.27 306.26 317.43 291.93 333.74 349.66 322.35 356.31 335.43 357.56 353.39 359.44 361.89 Bank Indonesia 4.6 4.86 19.19 22.81 25.66 66.95 38.20 25.17 48.25 30.53 44.44 29.72 32.83 32.60 30.08 Reksadana 43.04 41.91 41.46 41.45 39.63 40.02 40.06 40.23 41.08 42.37 42.50 43.54 43.68 44.02 44.02 Asuransi 117.44 120.78 121.88 127.17 126.33 125.09 124.69 127.82 128.48 129.97 129.55 132.93 133.42 136.42 136.75 281.63 280.75 298.72 302.94 283.53 285.77 284.01 294.14 318.11 324.20 323.83 328.65 329.19 331.88 331.86 Investor Asing Dana Pensiun 27.55 27.61 27.53 28.46 29.06 33.71 37.65 38.59 38.67 39.67 39.47 40.00 40.05 40.14 40.13 Sekuritas 1.18 1.04 0.77 0.92 0.94 1.14 1.10 1.05 0.82 1.32 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.92 0.82 Individu 30.29 27.56 26.26 25.29 25.01 25.17 23.23 21.41 41.36 32.52 32.48 31.61 31.59 31.47 31.35 Lainnya 40.72 41.12 40.4 40.48 40.93 42.24 44.39 44.81 44.93 46.45 46.69 47.88 47.76 49.87 49.84 Total 856.39 861.52 874.49 895.77 888.51 912.03 927.07 942.86 984.05 1,003.34 995.25 1,012.76 1,012.76 1,026.76 1,026.76 Sumber: DJPU Kemenkeu
3
Laporan Harian Ekonomi & Pasar Utang - 13 Februari 2014
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