December 20, 2012
ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY
USD/IDR EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
Last
-1D chg (+/- %)
-1W chg (+/- %)
-1M chg (+/- %)
9,650 1.32 84.41 1.62
0.06 -0.02 0.24 -0.04
0.31 2.31 2.33 1.28
0.17 3.20 3.34 2.02
TREASURY & MONEY MARKET Last
IDR JIBOR O/N 4.18 1M 4.64 3M 4.94 USD LIBOR 0.16 O/N 1M 0.21 0.31 3M BI Rate BI Rate 5.75 IDR Average Deposit 1M 5.30 3M 5.44 5.51 12M Others Fed Fund (o/n) 0.18 US T-Bills 1M 0.01 US T-Bills 3M 0.05 SIBOR 1M 0.21 EURIBOR 1M 0.11
-1W chg -1D chg (+/- bps) (+/- bps)
-1M chg (+/- bps)
0.01 0.04 0.03
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.01 0.00 0.00
IDMA Index
0.00
7.50
0.00 0.00 0.00
-0.01 0.04 0.04
0.03 0.02 0.02
0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.01 -0.20 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.06 -0.05 -0.06 0.00 0.00
200 150 100 50 0 28-Oct
2Y
10-Nov
23-Nov
5Y
6-Dec
19-Dec
10Y
10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison 3.50 2.50 1.50 0.50 20-Sep
3-Oct
16-Oct
10Y U.S. Treasury Note
29-Oct
11-Nov
24-Nov
7-Dec
20-Dec
-1W chg (+/- bps)
-1M chg (+/- bps)
4.31 -0.08 -0.10 4.66 0.00 -0.01 4.65 -0.02 -0.09 4.76 -0.01 -0.04 4.84 -0.01 -0.08 4.94 -0.01 -0.12 5.06 -0.01 -0.08 5.17 0.00 -0.08 5.17 -0.04 -0.09 5.19 0.00 -0.11 5.90 0.00 -0.02 Indonesia Bond Index
-0.39 -0.31 -0.33 -0.25 -0.22 -0.25 -0.22 -0.17 -0.18 -0.23 -0.10
Last
-1D chg (+/- %)
-1W chg (+/- %)
-1M chg (+/- %)
111.76
0.06
0.33
0.70
Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve
6.50 5.50 4.50 3.50 1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
Last
6Y
7Y
8Y
-1 Week
Last Price
250
15-Oct
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year
0.01 0.04 0.02
300
2-Oct
Last Yield -1D chg (%) (+/- bps)
0.00 0.00 0.00
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
19-Sep
RESEARCH DEBT MARKET Indonesia Govt Bonds Benchmark Yield
Last Yield (%)
Most Active Government Bonds 122.00 FR0058 113.90 FR0061 110.85 FR0059 130.80 FR0046 FR0064 103.75 105.76 FR0065 103.75 SR004 146.45 FR0040 98.16 SPN12130606 150.00 FR0039 Most Active Corporate Bonds 100.00 ASDF01BCN2 101.02 MEGA01 100.00 BNLI01SBCN2 100.10 SANF02A 100.13 SSIA01A 101.80 SANF02C 100.33 SANF02B 109.51 BNLI02SB 100.10 AGII01 103.69 VRNA01C
10Y Indonesia Soverign US$ Bond
Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities: www.bnisecurities.co.id
9Y
10 Y 15 Y
-1 Month
Volume (RpBn)
6.28 5.12 5.87 5.60 5.76 6.13 4.79 5.79 4.10 5.49
1,060.3 773.8 663.2 491.1 483.9 306.6 252.3 236.6 209.9 200.0
7.50 11.23 9.40 7.09 8.25 7.46 7.38 8.81 14.29 8.10
100.0 54.0 40.0 36.0 32.0 17.0 13.0 10.0 8.0 7.8
Data Source: Bloomberg & CTP
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - December 20, 2012 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 4Q11 Oct
Nov
GDP Real (YoY)
1Q12 Dec
Jan
2Q12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
4Q12
3Q12 Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
6.49
6.32
6.37
Private Consumption
4.95
4.94
5.24
5.68
Government Consumption
2.78
5.94
7.35
-3.22
11.52
9.97
12.32
10.02
Investment (GFCF)
Oct
Nov
6.17
Inflation CPI (YoY)
4.42
4.15
3.79
3.65
3.56
3.97
4.50
4.45
4.53
4.56
4.58
4.31
4.61
4.32
CPI (MoM)
-0.12
0.34
0.57
0.76
0.05
0.07
0.21
0.07
0.62
0.70
0.95
0.01
0.16
0.07
Consumption Motorcycle Sales (Units)
715,176
642,126
460,535
645,863
666,136
619,678
617,508
611,251
541,918
579,077
429,236
620,499
626,901
621,224
Automobile Sales (Units)
86,345
67,655
80,325
76,427
86,482
87,919
87,145
95,536
101,746
102,512
76,445
102,113
106,744
103,699
Consumer Confidence Index
116.20
114.30
116.60
119.20
111.70
107.30
102.50
109.00
114.40
113.50
115.70
117.70
119.50
120.10
-207.20 -1,286.00
-1,547.00
Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn)
1,424.30
1,841.60
602.10
1,015.50
828.60
925.80
-764.70
-263.80
233.10
549.50
Export (YoY)
17.80
10.20
1.50
6.60
8.90
5.40
-2.30
-8.00
-16.00
-7.60
-24.70
-9.40
-7.60
Import (YoY)
28.16
18.35
25.32
15.89
26.53
12.70
13.77
14.91
10.98
0.91
-8.37
1.18
10.82
Foreign Reserve (USD bn)
113.96
111.32
110.12
111.99
112.22
110.49
116.41
111.53
106.50
106.56
108.99
110.17
110.30
111.29
Net Int'l Reserve (IDR tn)
972.24
985.15
965.87
980.78
991.69
981.89
1020.77
1015.99
968.45
977.16
1008.23
1023.02
1025.91
1034.39
Reserves
Moneter (YoY) M1 Money Supply
19.70
16.85
19.42
15.25
16.62
23.02
23.31
22.50
22.51
20.65
16.54
21.25
17.55
M2 Money Supply
15.98
16.26
16.43
17.17
17.75
18.79
20.24
20.88
20.91
19.12
17.84
18.24
18.30
Financial Sector BI rate (% p.a.)
6.50
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
SUN 10 years (%)
6.34
6.73
6.03
5.34
5.56
5.93
5.96
6.51
6.15
5.71
6.26
5.97
5.71
Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD, end of period)
8,870
9,080
9,075
9,005
9,035
9,143
9,192
9,485
9,385
9,445
9,539
9,579
9,605
5.75 5.38 9,593
Source: Bloomberg & CEIC Government Bond Ownership as of December 12, 2012 (Rp tn) Holders Dec-11 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Banks 265.03 293.16 297.80 300.16 Bank Indonesia 7.84 3.12 2.15 9.84 Mutual Fund 47.22 46.95 48.52 48.20 Insurance Companies 93.09 100.63 102.94 104.73 Foreign Investor 222.86 224.72 228.87 224.50 Pension Fund 34.39 33.93 33.98 34.80 Securities Companies 0.14 0.53 0.22 0.27 Others 53.05 57.54 57.85 57.77 Total 723.61 760.58 772.33 780.27
Jun-12 297.98 20.36 48.60 106.86 224.42 34.56 0.27 58.14 791.18
Jul-12 286.41 31.48 48.60 107.15 234.56 34.04 0.37 57.06 799.66
Aug-12 290.61 31.57 47.22 108.98 233.15 34.59 0.63 56.30 803.05
Sep-12 317.43 4.63 47.01 109.54 240.98 34.35 0.51 58.35 812.80
Oct-12 311.7 10.62 46.49 108.02 250.33 35.8 0.41 70.63 834.00
Nov-12 304.02 6.23 45.87 108.05 269.85 35.29 0.33 64.92 834.56
7-Dec-12 11-Dec-12 12-Dec-12 301.4 300.11 302.64 7.45 9.26 7.33 45.35 45.35 45.33 95.11 95.13 95.13 273.61 273.20 272.13 47.92 47.97 48.01 0.3 0.3 0.3 64.60 64.42 63.88 835.74 835.75 834.75
Source: DMO
NEWS
Waspadai Inflasi dan Neraca Eksternal
Ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun depan dihadapkan pada risiko naiknya inflasi karena naiknya upah minimum, memburuknya neraca eksternal yang berpotensi menurunkan nilai tukar rupiah, dan melemahnya harga komoditas yang menjadi mesin pertumbuhan. Diperkirakan investasi dan konsumsi tetap menjadi pendorong utama pertumbuhan ekonomi 2013. Pada tahun depan kuatnya konsumsi masyarakat menjadi salah satu pendorong ekonomi, yang akan diikuti oleh meningkatnya produksi, dan naiknya upah. Hal ini akan membantu meningkatkan pendapatan dan kesempatan kerja yang akan mendorong permintaan. Sementara itu pada tahun depan diperkirakan tidak ada lonjakan besar harga minyak global yang dapat memperburuk kondisi fiskal atau memaksa pemerintah akan menaikkan harga bahan bakar minyak. Defisit perdagangan diperkirakan memburuk dan nilai tukar rupiah akan melemah, tetapi tidak akan menimbulkan utang luar negeri yang parah. Bahkan kondisi pendanaan global akan tetap masuk, dan investor asing akan tetap tertarik untuk berinvestasi di Indonesia. Dalam menjaga fundamental ekonomi Indonesia seharusnya dilakukan dengan mendukung peningkatan pertumbuhan konsumsi masyarakat dan mempermudah masuknya investasi karena kedua sektor tersebut dipastikan masih akan menjadi pendorong ekonomi 2013 di tengah masih buruknya kondisi ekonomi global.
Neraca Transaksi Berjalan 2013 Diprediksi Defisit 2,7%
Neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia pada tahun depan diperkirakan akan defisit sebesar USD 25,4 miliar atau 2,7% terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Angka ini lebih besar dari tahun ini yang diprediksi defisit sebesar USD 20,6 miliar atau 2,3% dari PDB. Neraca perdagangan Indonesia yang memburuk pada tahun ini, diperkirakan akan berlanjut pada tahun depan, karena kinerja ekspor tahun depan tidak jelas sejalan dengan menurunnya harga komoditas dan volume ekspor. Di sisi lain impor cederung terus meningkat seiring peningkatan impor barang modal. Kondisi tersebut menyebabkan neraca transaksi berjalan akan tetap defisit, dan tekanan terhadap rupiah akan tetap berlanjut, khususnya jika defisit tersebut akan menjadi masalah dari waktu ke waktu.
2
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - December 20, 2012
Government Bond Closing Price as of December 19, 2012
Series FR0033 FR0019 FR0049 FR0020 FR0051 FR0026 FR0027 FR0030 FR0055 FR0060 FR0028 FR0032 FR0038 FR0048 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0046 FR0039 FR0044 FR0040 FR0037 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0045 FR0050 FR0057 FR0062
Maturity Coupon Last Price 15-Mar-13 12.50% 102.12 15-Jun-13 14.25% 104.97 15-Sep-13 9.00% 103.51 15-Dec-13 14.28% 109.53 15-May-14 11.25% 109.30 15-Oct-14 11.00% 111.26 15-Jun-15 9.50% 111.38 15-May-16 10.75% 119.02 15-Sep-16 7.38% 109.16 15-Apr-17 6.25% 105.92 15-Jul-17 10.00% 121.16 15-Jul-18 15.00% 148.82 15-Aug-18 11.60% 132.93 15-Sep-18 9.00% 120.35 15-Sep-19 11.50% 136.80 15-Nov-20 11.00% 137.59 15-Jun-21 12.80% 151.77 15-Jul-21 8.25% 121.04 15-May-22 7.00% 113.51 15-Jun-22 12.90% 155.42 15-Jul-22 10.25% 136.03 15-Jul-23 9.50% 131.78 15-Aug-23 11.75% 149.85 15-Sep-24 10.00% 136.85 15-Sep-25 11.00% 146.87 15-Sep-26 12.00% 157.74 15-Sep-26 8.38% 123.67 15-May-27 7.00% 110.83 15-Jul-27 10.25% 141.35 15-Feb-28 10.00% 139.70 15-Aug-30 10.50% 147.56 15-Jul-31 9.50% 137.16 15-Jun-32 8.25% 122.83 15-May-37 9.75% 141.36 15-Jul-38 10.50% 151.29 15-May-41 9.50% 139.91 15-Apr-42 6.38% 100.01
YTM 3.25% 3.77% 4.07% 4.27% 4.32% 4.47% 4.60% 4.63% 4.67% 4.72% 4.79% 4.88% 4.86% 4.89% 4.99% 5.15% 5.18% 5.18% 5.17% 5.37% 5.38% 5.49% 5.50% 5.66% 5.76% 5.83% 5.84% 5.87% 5.96% 5.98% 6.07% 6.12% 6.21% 6.38% 6.40% 6.42% 6.37%
Source: Bloomberg
3
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - December 20, 2012
MACRO & DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Research Department
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