December 28, 2012
ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY
USD/IDR EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
Last
-1D chg (+/- %)
-1W chg (+/- %)
-1M chg (+/- %)
9,673 1.32 86.48 1.61
0.10 0.02 0.44 0.07
0.16 0.42 2.66 -0.36
0.65 2.33 5.26 0.57
TREASURY & MONEY MARKET Last
IDR JIBOR O/N 4.20 1M 4.74 3M 4.99 USD LIBOR 0.17 O/N 1M 0.21 0.31 3M BI Rate BI Rate 5.75 IDR Average Deposit 1M 5.32 3M 5.41 5.46 12M Others Fed Fund (o/n) 0.18 US T-Bills 1M 0.02 US T-Bills 3M 0.07 SIBOR 1M 0.21 EURIBOR 1M 0.11
-1W chg -1D chg (+/- bps) (+/- bps)
-1M chg (+/- bps)
0.03 0.15 0.08
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.01 0.00 0.00
IDMA Index
0.00
7.50
0.00 -0.04 0.00
0.05 0.01 -0.04
0.08 0.01 0.02
0.00 -0.03 -0.02 0.00 0.00
0.00 -0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00
0.00 -0.04 -0.04 0.00 0.00
200 150 100 50 0 5-Nov
2Y
18-Nov
1-Dec
5Y
14-Dec
27-Dec
10Y
10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison 3.50 2.50 1.50 0.50 28-Sep
11-Oct
24-Oct
10Y U.S. Treasury Note
6-Nov
19-Nov
2-Dec
15-Dec
28-Dec
-1W chg (+/- bps)
-1M chg (+/- bps)
4.42 -0.01 0.04 4.52 -0.03 -0.11 4.61 -0.01 -0.06 4.74 -0.04 0.01 4.83 -0.01 -0.01 4.94 -0.02 0.01 5.04 0.00 -0.02 5.13 -0.01 -0.02 5.17 -0.01 -0.03 5.19 -0.01 0.01 5.91 0.00 0.01 Indonesia Bond Index
-0.18 -0.27 -0.26 -0.15 -0.20 -0.19 -0.20 -0.17 -0.19 -0.22 -0.04
Last
-1D chg (+/- %)
-1W chg (+/- %)
-1M chg (+/- %)
111.72
0.04
-0.10
0.23
Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve
6.50 5.50 4.50 3.50 1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
Last
6Y
7Y
8Y
-1 Week
Last Price
250
23-Oct
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year
0.02 0.10 0.05
300
10-Oct
Last Yield -1D chg (%) (+/- bps)
0.01 0.06 0.03
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
27-Sep
RESEARCH DEBT MARKET Indonesia Govt Bonds Benchmark Yield
Last Yield (%)
Most Active Government Bonds 103.90 FR0064 104.54 FR0063 110.70 FR0059 106.35 FR0065 FR0060 106.00 101.10 FR0062 152.50 FR0034 111.00 FR0027 137.16 FR0044 138.36 FR0031 Most Active Corporate Bonds 100.09 ASDF01ACN2 100.25 BEXI01ACN2 100.03 MEGA01 100.00 SMAR01ACN1 100.00 IMFI01ACN1 110.66 BMRI01 100.00 ADMF01ACN2 100.10 MEDC01CN1 102.34 CFIN03C 101.25 BBKP01SBCN1
10Y Indonesia Soverign US$ Bond
Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities: www.bnisecurities.co.id
9Y
10 Y 15 Y
-1 Month
Volume (RpBn)
5.74 5.06 5.89 6.08 5.00 6.29 5.09 5.00 5.62 5.03
276.8 198.0 166.5 114.1 101.0 91.6 73.0 21.0 10.0 7.0
6.54 5.96 11.49 9.00 6.49 8.64 6.49 8.77 8.87 8.98
302.0 147.0 52.0 36.0 28.0 25.0 20.0 20.0 15.0 14.0
Data Source: Bloomberg & CTP
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - December 28, 2012 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 4Q11 Oct
Nov
GDP Real (YoY)
1Q12 Dec
Jan
2Q12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
4Q12
3Q12 Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
6.49
6.32
6.37
Private Consumption
4.95
4.94
5.24
5.68
Government Consumption
2.78
5.94
7.35
-3.22
11.52
9.97
12.32
10.02
Investment (GFCF)
Oct
Nov
6.17
Inflation CPI (YoY)
4.42
4.15
3.79
3.65
3.56
3.97
4.50
4.45
4.53
4.56
4.58
4.31
4.61
4.32
CPI (MoM)
-0.12
0.34
0.57
0.76
0.05
0.07
0.21
0.07
0.62
0.70
0.95
0.01
0.16
0.07
Consumption Motorcycle Sales (Units)
715,176
642,126
460,535
645,863
666,136
619,678
617,508
611,251
541,918
579,077
429,236
620,499
626,901
621,224
Automobile Sales (Units)
86,345
67,655
80,325
76,427
86,482
87,919
87,145
95,536
101,746
102,512
76,445
102,113
106,744
103,699
Consumer Confidence Index
116.20
114.30
116.60
119.20
111.70
107.30
102.50
109.00
114.40
113.50
115.70
117.70
119.50
120.10
-207.20 -1,286.00
-1,547.00
Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn)
1,424.30
1,841.60
602.10
1,015.50
828.60
925.80
-764.70
-263.80
233.10
549.50
Export (YoY)
17.80
10.20
1.50
6.60
8.90
5.40
-2.30
-8.00
-16.00
-7.60
-24.70
-9.40
-7.60
Import (YoY)
28.16
18.35
25.32
15.89
26.53
12.70
13.77
14.91
10.98
0.91
-8.37
1.18
10.82
Foreign Reserve (USD bn)
113.96
111.32
110.12
111.99
112.22
110.49
116.41
111.53
106.50
106.56
108.99
110.17
110.30
111.29
Net Int'l Reserve (IDR tn)
972.24
985.15
965.87
980.78
991.69
981.89
1020.77
1015.99
968.45
977.16
1008.23
1023.02
1025.91
1034.39
Reserves
Moneter (YoY) M1 Money Supply
19.70
16.85
19.42
15.25
16.62
23.02
23.31
22.50
22.51
20.65
16.54
21.25
17.55
M2 Money Supply
15.98
16.26
16.43
17.17
17.75
18.79
20.24
20.88
20.91
19.12
17.84
18.24
18.30
Financial Sector BI rate (% p.a.)
6.50
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
SUN 10 years (%)
6.34
6.73
6.03
5.34
5.56
5.93
5.96
6.51
6.15
5.71
6.26
5.97
5.71
Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD, end of period)
8,870
9,080
9,075
9,005
9,035
9,143
9,192
9,485
9,385
9,445
9,539
9,579
9,605
5.75 5.38 9,593
Source: Bloomberg & CEIC Government Bond Ownership as of December 12, 2012 (Rp tn) Holders Dec-11 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Banks 265.03 293.16 297.80 300.16 Bank Indonesia 7.84 3.12 2.15 9.84 Mutual Fund 47.22 46.95 48.52 48.20 Insurance Companies 93.09 100.63 102.94 104.73 Foreign Investor 222.86 224.72 228.87 224.50 Pension Fund 34.39 33.93 33.98 34.80 Securities Companies 0.14 0.53 0.22 0.27 Others 53.05 57.54 57.85 57.77 Total 723.61 760.58 772.33 780.27
Jun-12 297.98 20.36 48.60 106.86 224.42 34.56 0.27 58.14 791.18
Jul-12 286.41 31.48 48.60 107.15 234.56 34.04 0.37 57.06 799.66
Aug-12 290.61 31.57 47.22 108.98 233.15 34.59 0.63 56.30 803.05
Sep-12 317.43 4.63 47.01 109.54 240.98 34.35 0.51 58.35 812.80
Oct-12 311.7 10.62 46.49 108.02 250.33 35.8 0.41 70.63 834.00
Nov-12 304.02 6.23 45.87 108.05 269.85 35.29 0.33 64.92 834.56
7-Dec-12 11-Dec-12 12-Dec-12 301.4 300.11 302.64 7.45 9.26 7.33 45.35 45.35 45.33 95.11 95.13 95.13 273.61 273.20 272.13 47.92 47.97 48.01 0.3 0.3 0.3 64.60 64.42 63.88 835.74 835.75 834.75
Source: DMO
NEWS
Proyek Pertambangan MP3EI Banyak Tertunda di 2012
Ditjen Pajak Ekstensifikasi dengan Data Pajak
Proyek investasi sektor pertambangan yang masuk dalam agenda pelaksanaan Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia (MP3EI) tahun ini tercatat banyak yang dibatalkan groundbreaking-nya. Banyaknya pembatalan proyek di sektor pertambangan tahun ini disebabkan tidak jelasnya masalah royalty, kepastian hukum dan masalah divestasi. Hal tersebut membuat investor kembali melakukan renegoisasi kontrak yang dilakukan tahun ini. Pembatalan tersebut berdampak pada pelaksanaan di sebagian koridor ekonomi tahun ini tidak mencapai target yang diharapkan. Salah satu investasi besar yang tertunda adalah investasi perluasan dan pengembangan PT. Freeport di koridor Papua-Maluku. Nilai investasi yang seharusnya dapat tercatat tahun ini mencapai Rp 145 triliun, selain itu sektor pertambangan lainya di koridor Sulawesi juga banyak yang dibatalkan tahun ini. Berdasarkan data validasi terakhir sekertariat KP3EI tahun ini groundbreaking proyek MP3EI yang selesai sesuai target terjadi pada koridor Jawa, Kalimantan dan Sulawesi, Sedangkan Koridor Sumatera baru selesai 17%, Bali-Nusa Tenggara 37% dan Papua-Maluku 6%. Direktorat Jendral Pajak Kementerian Keuangan akan melakukan upaya ekstensifikasi dengan mewajibkan kementerian/lembaga dan pihak swasta menyerahkan data pajak untuk menjaring lebih banyak pembayar pajak. Upaya ini dilakukan juga untuk memperbaiki bank data Direktorat Jenderal Pajak, dan kewajiban untuk menyerahkan data pajak tersebut akan ditetapkan melalui penerbitan Peraturan Menteri Keuangan. Selain itu, kebijakan ini diberlakukan untuk mengantisipasi kekurangan penerimaan pajak melalui sektor perdagangan yang diperkirakan hingga 2013 masih mengalami masalah akibat krisis global. Berdasarkan data Kementerian Keuangan per 21 Desember 2012, penerimaan perpajakan yang mencakup penerimaan pajak, kepabeanan dan cukai mencapai Rp944,8 triliun atau 93,3 persen dari target APBN-Perubahan 2012 sebesar Rp 1.016,2 triliun. Sedangkan pemerintah menargetkan penerimaan perpajakan pada 2013 sebesar Rp1.192 triliun.
2
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - December 28, 2012
Government Bond Closing Price as of December 27, 2012
Series FR0033 FR0019 FR0049 FR0020 FR0051 FR0026 FR0027 FR0030 FR0055 FR0060 FR0028 FR0032 FR0038 FR0048 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0046 FR0039 FR0044 FR0040 FR0037 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0045 FR0050 FR0057 FR0062
Maturity Coupon Last Price 15-Mar-13 12.50% 101.96 15-Jun-13 14.25% 104.74 15-Sep-13 9.00% 103.38 15-Dec-13 14.28% 109.41 15-May-14 11.25% 109.18 15-Oct-14 11.00% 111.26 15-Jun-15 9.50% 111.41 15-May-16 10.75% 118.90 15-Sep-16 7.38% 109.13 15-Apr-17 6.25% 106.20 15-Jul-17 10.00% 121.23 15-Jul-18 15.00% 148.94 15-Aug-18 11.60% 132.94 15-Sep-18 9.00% 120.30 15-Sep-19 11.50% 136.76 15-Nov-20 11.00% 137.91 15-Jun-21 12.80% 151.95 15-Jul-21 8.25% 121.04 15-May-22 7.00% 113.62 15-Jun-22 12.90% 155.61 15-Jul-22 10.25% 136.28 15-Jul-23 9.50% 132.04 15-Aug-23 11.75% 149.98 15-Sep-24 10.00% 136.82 15-Sep-25 11.00% 146.70 15-Sep-26 12.00% 157.82 15-Sep-26 8.38% 123.57 15-May-27 7.00% 110.80 15-Jul-27 10.25% 141.24 15-Feb-28 10.00% 139.73 15-Aug-30 10.50% 147.60 15-Jul-31 9.50% 137.01 15-Jun-32 8.25% 122.49 15-May-37 9.75% 141.23 15-Jul-38 10.50% 151.04 15-May-41 9.50% 139.58 15-Apr-42 6.38% 100.42
YTM 3.03% 3.76% 4.11% 4.18% 4.31% 4.40% 4.54% 4.64% 4.66% 4.64% 4.75% 4.83% 4.84% 4.88% 4.99% 5.10% 5.15% 5.17% 5.15% 5.34% 5.35% 5.46% 5.48% 5.66% 5.76% 5.82% 5.85% 5.88% 5.97% 5.97% 6.06% 6.13% 6.24% 6.39% 6.41% 6.44% 6.34%
Source: Bloomberg
3
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - December 28, 2012
MACRO & DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Research Department
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