January 14, 2013
ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report
RESEARCH DEBT MARKET Indonesia Govt Bonds Benchmark Yield
FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY
USD/IDR EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
Last
-1D chg (+/- %)
-1W chg (+/- %)
-1M chg (+/- %)
9,893 1.34 89.49 1.61
2.68 0.19 0.34 -0.02
2.52 1.38 2.46 -0.77
2.65 1.55 7.14 -0.27
TREASURY & MONEY MARKET Last
IDR JIBOR O/N 4.18 1M 4.63 3M 4.95 USD LIBOR O/N 0.16 1M 0.21 3M 0.30 BI Rate BI Rate 5.75 IDR Average Deposit 1M 5.27 3M 5.44 12M 5.48 Others Fed Fund (o/n) 0.16 US T-Bills 1M 0.04 US T-Bills 3M 0.07 SIBOR 1M 0.21 EURIBOR 1M 0.11
-1W chg -1M chg -1D chg (+/- bps) (+/- bps) (+/- bps)
-0.02 -4.63 -4.96
0.01 -4.61 -4.94
0.00 0.00 0.00
-0.01 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
IDMA Index
0.00
7.50
0.00 0.00 0.00
-0.03 0.05 0.03
-0.03 0.04 0.01
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
-0.01 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00
-0.01 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
250 200 150 100 50 0 6-Nov
19-Nov
2Y
2-Dec
15-Dec
5Y
28-Dec
10-Jan
10Y
10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison 3.50 2.50 1.50 0.50 11-Oct
24-Oct
6-Nov
10Y U.S. Treasury Note
19-Nov
2-Dec
4.33 0.00 -0.04 4.47 0.00 -0.04 4.61 0.00 -0.03 4.70 0.00 0.02 4.68 0.00 0.00 4.92 0.00 0.04 5.18 0.00 0.17 5.26 0.00 0.15 5.31 0.00 0.17 5.23 -0.02 0.13 5.93 0.00 0.14 Indonesia Bond Index
-0.12 -0.18 -0.12 -0.10 -0.21 -0.13 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.00 0.03
Last
-1D chg (+/- %)
-1W chg (+/- %)
-1M chg (+/- %)
114.83
-0.12
-0.79
2.80
Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve
6.50
5.50
4.50
3.50 1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
Last
15-Dec
28-Dec
10-Jan
6Y
7Y
8Y
-1 Week
Last Price
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
24-Oct
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year
0.00 -4.63 -4.95
300
11-Oct
Last Yield -1D chg -1W chg -1M chg (%) (+/- bps) (+/- bps) (+/- bps)
Last Yield (%)
9 Y 10 Y 15 Y -1 Month
Volume (RpBn)
Most Active Government Bonds FR0065 104.60 6.22 FR0061 111.00 5.48 FR0064 102.31 5.89 FR0063 103.75 5.15 FR0052 145.50 6.21 FR0048 120.42 4.83 SPN12130208 99.88 2.00 FR0058 120.50 6.39 SPN12130307 99.40 4.30 ZC0005 99.65 3.53
383.9 297.8 240.1 204.0 127.4 120.0 110.0 103.7 100.0 80.0
Most Active Corporate Bonds ADMF01BCN1 101.50 7.15 ADMF01CCN3 101.40 8.39 BNLI01SBCN2 100.85 9.23 PPLN10A 107.25 7.05 ASDF01ACN1 100.08 5.98 APLN02 101.45 8.98 BT PN01BCN2 100.75 8.05 INDF06 100.10 7.22 BBTN12 116.40 7.61 BMLK01C 106.10 8.87
30.3 30.0 23.0 21.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 8.0
10Y Indonesia Soverign US$ Bond
Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities: www.bnisecurities.co.id
Dat a Source: Bloomberg & CT P
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - January 14, 2013 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 4Q11 Oct
Nov
GDP Real (YoY)
1Q12 Dec
Jan
Feb
2Q12 Mar
Apr
3Q12
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
4Q12 Sep
6.49
6.32
6.37
Private Consumption
4.95
4.94
5.24
5.68
Government Consumption
2.78
5.94
7.35
-3.22
11.52
9.97
12.32
10.02
Investment (GFCF)
Oct
Nov
Dec
6.17
Inflation CPI (YoY)
4.42
4.15
3.79
3.65
3.56
3.97
4.50
4.45
4.53
4.56
4.58
4.31
4.61
4.32
4.30
CPI (MoM)
-0.12
0.34
0.57
0.76
0.05
0.07
0.21
0.07
0.62
0.70
0.95
0.01
0.16
0.07
0.54
Motorcycle Sales (Units)
715,176
642,126
460,535
645,863
666,136
619,678
617,508
611,251
541,918
579,077
429,236
620,499
626,901
621,224
Automobile Sales (Units)
86,345
67,655
80,325
76,427
86,482
87,919
87,145
95,536
101,746
102,512
76,445
102,113
106,744
103,699
Consumer Confidence Index
116.20
114.30
116.60
119.20
111.70
107.30
102.50
109.00
114.40
113.50
115.70
117.70
119.50
120.10
-207.20 -1,286.00
Consumption
Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn)
1,424.30
1,841.60
602.10
1,015.50
828.60
925.80
-764.70
-263.80
233.10
549.50
-1,883.90
-478.40
Export (YoY)
17.80
10.20
1.50
6.60
8.90
5.40
-2.30
-8.00
-16.00
-7.60
-24.70
-9.40
-9.60
-4.60
Import (YoY)
28.16
18.35
25.32
15.89
26.53
12.70
13.77
14.91
10.98
0.91
-8.37
1.18
10.78
9.92
Reserves Foreign Reserve (USD bn)
113.96
111.32
110.12
111.99
112.22
110.49
116.41
111.53
106.50
106.56
108.99
110.17
110.30
111.29
112.78
Net Int'l Reserve (IDR tn)
972.24
985.15
965.87
980.78
991.69
981.89
1020.77
1015.99
968.45
977.16
1008.23
1023.02
1025.91
1034.39
1056.08
Moneter (YoY) M1 Money Supply
19.70
16.85
19.42
15.25
16.62
23.02
23.31
22.50
22.51
20.65
16.54
21.25
16.54
20.04
M2 Money Supply
15.98
16.26
16.43
17.17
17.75
18.79
20.24
20.88
20.91
19.12
17.84
18.24
18.07
17.42
17.40
Financial Sector BI rate (% p.a.)
6.50
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
SUN 10 years (%)
6.34
6.73
6.03
5.34
5.56
5.93
5.96
6.51
6.15
5.71
6.26
5.97
5.71
5.38
Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD, end of period)
8,870
9,080
9,075
9,005
9,035
9,143
9,192
9,485
9,385
9,445
9,539
9,579
9,605
9,593
5.75 5.19 9,638
Source: Bloomberg & CEIC Government Bond Ownership as of January 10, 2013 (Rp tn) Holders Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Banks 265.03 293.16 297.98 317.43 Bank Indonesia 7.84 3.12 20.36 4.63 Mutual Fund 47.22 46.95 48.60 47.01 Insurance Companies 93.09 100.63 106.86 109.54 Foreign Investor 222.86 224.72 224.42 240.98 Pension Fund 34.39 33.93 34.56 34.35 Securities Companies 0.14 0.53 0.27 0.51 Others 53.05 57.54 58.14 58.35 Total 723.61 760.58 791.18 812.80
Oct-12 311.7 10.62 46.49 108.02 250.33 35.8 0.41 70.63 834.00
Nov-12 28-Dec-12 4-Jan-13 9-Jan-13 10-Jan-13 304.02 299.66 301.1 300.88 301.86 6.23 3.07 0.88 0.8 0.8 45.87 43.19 42.94 42.88 42.85 108.05 83.42 83.48 83.44 83.4 269.85 270.52 271.56 271.09 270.27 35.29 56.46 56.4 56.38 56.36 0.33 0.3 0.3 0.29 0.29 64.92 63.64 63.61 63.5 63.43 834.56 820.27 820.27 819.27 819.27
Source: DJPU Kemenkeu
NEWS
Pertumbuhan Kuartal I 2013 Diprediksi 6,2%
Dominasi Penyerapan Belanja Negara Masih di Kuartal III dan IV
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal I 2013 diperkirakan akan mencapai 6%-6,2%. Capaian tersebut terlihat dari baiknya permintaan domestik khususnya kontribusi konsumsi masyarakat dan pemerintah serta investasi yang masih cukup besar. Sepanjang kuartal I 2013 kinerja ekspor diperkirakan akan mengalami perbaikan meskipun pergerakannya masih sangat terbatas sejalan dengan ekspektasi pemulihan perekonomian dunia dan kembali naiknya daya beli masyarakat. Sedangkan investasi diperkirakan masih akan tumbuh moderat. Masih tingginya investasi sejalan dengan kondusifnya iklim usaha dan mulai membaiknya kinerja ekspor meski terbatas dan impor yang berpotensi kembali meningkat. Pertumbuhan ekonomi sepanjang 2013 juga diperkirakan meningkat dibandingkan tahun lalu. Hal tersebut tercermin dari semakin baiknya kondisi ekonomi global khususnya negara-negara mitra dagang Indonesia seperti China dan Jepang. Pemerintah memperkirakan realisasi belanja pemerintah secara cash tahun 2013 masih didominasi pencairan anggaran di akhir kuartal III dan IV. Penyerapan anggaran yang sebagian besar terjadi di kuartal III dan IV (dikenal dengan kurva V) bukan menandakan penyerapan anggaran buruk di akhir tahun. Melainkan adanya kebiasaan dari Kementerian/Lembaga yang menagih anggaran di kuartal III dan IV sambil menunggu selesainya realisasi fisik. Penyerapan akan membaik karena masalah yang terjadi tahun ini diperkirakan akan berkurang dibandingkan tahun lalu, khususnya pada persoalan pengadaan tanah yang diperkirakan lebih baik. Adanya UndangUndang Pengadaan Tanah dipastikan memuluskan percepatan penyerapan anggaran pemerintah. Secara umum, sangat sulit jika pemerintah tahun ini mengubah sistem penyerapan dengan skema kurva S. Pasalnya, penyerapan yang masih belum optimal setiap tahun disebabkan masalah desentralisasi fiskal yang belum dapat ditembus pemerintah pusat.
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Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - January 14, 2013
Government Bond Closing Price as of January 11, 2012
Series FR0033 FR0019 FR0049 FR0020 FR0051 FR0026 FR0027 FR0030 FR0055 FR0060 FR0028 FR0032 FR0038 FR0048 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0046 FR0039 FR0044 FR0040 FR0037 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0045 FR0050 FR0057 FR0062
Maturity Coupon Last Price 15-Mar-13 12.50% 101.57 15-Jun-13 14.25% 104.41 15-Sep-13 9.00% 103.27 15-Dec-13 14.28% 108.93 15-May-14 11.25% 108.95 15-Oct-14 11.00% 111.14 15-Jun-15 9.50% 111.38 15-May-16 10.75% 118.94 15-Sep-16 7.38% 109.21 15-Apr-17 6.25% 106.27 15-Jul-17 10.00% 121.26 15-Jul-18 15.00% 148.74 15-Aug-18 11.60% 132.79 15-Sep-18 9.00% 120.19 15-Sep-19 11.50% 135.76 15-Nov-20 11.00% 137.02 15-Jun-21 12.80% 150.70 15-Jul-21 8.25% 120.13 15-May-22 7.00% 112.73 15-Jun-22 12.90% 154.84 15-Jul-22 10.25% 135.54 15-Jul-23 9.50% 131.86 15-Aug-23 11.75% 149.86 15-Sep-24 10.00% 136.18 15-Sep-25 11.00% 146.21 15-Sep-26 12.00% 155.98 15-Sep-26 8.38% 122.38 15-May-27 7.00% 108.70 15-Jul-27 10.25% 140.20 15-Feb-28 10.00% 137.83 15-Aug-30 10.50% 145.03 15-Jul-31 9.50% 136.47 15-Jun-32 8.25% 119.29 15-May-37 9.75% 140.16 15-Jul-38 10.50% 149.79 15-May-41 9.50% 138.84 15-Apr-42 6.38% 99.83
YTM 3.23% 3.62% 4.00% 4.29% 4.29% 4.33% 4.49% 4.57% 4.62% 4.61% 4.71% 4.82% 4.83% 4.88% 5.11% 5.19% 5.27% 5.28% 5.26% 5.40% 5.42% 5.47% 5.48% 5.71% 5.80% 5.96% 5.96% 6.08% 6.05% 6.12% 6.24% 6.17% 6.49% 6.45% 6.48% 6.49% 6.39%
Source: Bloomberg
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Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - January 14, 2013
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