Daily Insight Monday, Oct 24th 2016
Market Update Secara teknikal pergerakan IHSG masih cenderung tertekan meskipun terus tertahan pada support ratarata pergerakan 50 hari. Indikator stochastic dan RSI mulai memperlihatkan tekanan bearish dari area jenuh beli menandakan potensi tertekan IHSG masih cukup besar peluangnnya. Sehingga diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak kembali mixed pada rentan 53755450 dan perlu extra hati-hati jika ternyata break out support rata-rata pergerakan 50 hari di level 5375.
Glo bal Market Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 Hang Seng Nikkei Kospi Shanghai Comp All Ordinaries EIDO Idn CDS 5yr USD MSCI Emerging Mkt CBOE SPX Volatility US Dollar Index
21-Oct -16 18,145.71 2,141.16 5,257.40 7,020.47 10,710.73 4,536.07 #N/A N/A 17,184.59 2,033.00 3,090.94 3,811.19 26.49
Daily Yt d -0.1% 4.1% 0.0% 4.8% 0.3% 5.0% -0.1% 12.5% 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% -2.2% #VALUE! #VALUE! -0.3% -9.7% -0.4% 3.7% 0.2% -12.7% -0.1% 10.7% 0.3% 26.9%
151.67 911.24 13.34 98.70
0.2% -0.2% -3.0% 0.4%
-34.0% 14.7% -26.7% 0.1%
Co mmo dit ies (USD) Coal CPO (MYR) Crude Oil Gold Copper Nickel Tin HRC Steel Corn Soybean
21-Oct -16 93.75 2,759.00 50.85 1,266.46 208.85 9,925.00 20,032.00 490.00 352.50 983.00
Daily 3.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% -0.4% -1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8%
Yt d 105.4% 15.1% 37.3% 19.4% -2.2% 12.9% 37.2% 25.3% -1.7% 12.8%
Indo nesia USDIDR IHSG LQ45 ISSI JII Finance Property Consumer Misc Indust Basic Indust Mining Agriculture Trading Infrastructure
21-Oct -16 13,042.00 5,409.24 930.46 178.06 739.42 802.66 565.07 2,512.25 1,385.17 526.27 1,256.65 1,782.38 862.99 352.37
Daily 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% -0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% -0.1% 0.3% -1.4% -1.2% -0.1% 0.1%
Yt d -5.4% 17.8% 17.5% 22.7% 22.6% 16.8% 15.1% 21.7% 31.0% 29.0% 54.9% 3.7% 1.6% 11.0%
Indo nesia St o ck Foreign Net Buy (Sell) Value Shares Traded Volume Shares Traded
21-Oct -16 Yt d 17.66 32,952.15 (bn Rp) 4,592.73 (bn Rp) 7,917.63 (mn shares)
Go vt Bo nd Yield (%) Indonesia 10yr IDR Indonesia 10yr USD US Treasury 10yr
21-Oct -16 7.079 3.420 1.740
Chg 0.050 0.007 0.020 Source: Bloomberg
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Misc Indust
Basic Indust
Finance
Consumer
Property
Infrastructure Trading Mining Agriculture
ASII IJ Equity SMSM IJ Equity SRIL IJ Equity SMGR IJ Equity INTP IJ Equity CPIN IJ Equity JPFA IJ Equity BBTN IJ Equity BBNI IJ Equity BBRI IJ Equity UNVR IJ Equity KAEF IJ Equity INDF IJ Equity WSKT IJ Equity PTPP IJ Equity CTRA IJ Equity SMRA IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity JSMR IJ Equity MLPL IJ Equity MAPI IJ Equity ELSA IJ Equity PTBA IJ Equity AALI IJ Equity LSIP IJ Equity SIMP IJ Equity SGRO IJ Equity
LS 27 average ret urn JCI Index
21-Oct -16 8,375 4,510 254 10,000 16,425 3,580 1,785 1,910 5,425 12,225 44,150 2,360 8,725 2,610 4,300 1,560 1,680 4,210 4,510 418 4,850 500 12,000 14,600 1,475 492 1,925 5,409
Daily 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% -0.6% 0.8% 3.5% -0.5% -0.5% 0.8% -0.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 2.1% -4.3% -3.7% 0.2% 0.2% 10.0% 0.8% 0.8% -4.0% -5.7% -3.0% -0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Yt d P/E 2017E 39.6% 16.2 -5.3% 12.2 -34.7% 5.3 -12.3% 10.6 -26.4% 11.8 37.7% 18.3 181.1% 24.9 47.5% 7.6 8.7% 7.8 7.0% 10.1 19.3% 46.0 171.3% 42.8 68.6% 16.9 56.3% 22.3 11.0% 17.8 7.5% 14.4 1.8% 15.4 35.6% 20.5 -13.7% 17.3 62.6% 19.4 27.8% 19.5 102.4% 16.2 165.2% 16.1 -3.3% 11.7 11.7% 11.9 48.2% 10.1 13.2% 8.6 38.1% 17.8% Source: Bloomberg
Berita Ekonomi dan Emiten: Wahana Ottomitra Multiartha (WOMF): Perseroan mengatakan total pembiayaan baru (new booking) yang telah dikeluarkan hingga September 2016 sebesar Rp4 triliun. Angka tersebut turun 18% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu. Tahun lalu, Perseroan membukukan total new booking sebesar Rp6,4 triliun. Adapun, tahun ini Perseroan hanya menargetkan total new booking sebesar Rp6 triliun. (Ko.co.id) Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE): Perseroan akhirnya merampungkan proses penerbitan obligasi berdenominasi dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Melalui anak usahanya, Global Prime Capital Pte Ltd (GPC), Perseroan mendapatkan dana segar senilai US$200 juta. (Ko.co.id) Modernland Realty (MDLN): Perseroan melalui Modernland Overseas Pte Ltd segera melunasi utang senilai US$ 57 juta pada Oktober tahun ini. Kewajiban tersebut merupakan bagian dari guaranted senior notes yang diterbitkan pada 2013 senilai US$150 juta. (MDLN) Waskita Karya (WSKT): Perseroan telah memperoleh fasilitas pinjaman sebesar Rp4,59 triliun. yang berasal dari beberapa bank atau sindikasi. Fasilitas pinjaman tersebut akan digunakan untuk mendukung kegiatan usaha utama Perseroan dalam bidang konstruksi. (Ok.com) Renuka Coalindo (SQMI): Perseroan alami penurunan rugi periode berjalan yang dapat didistribusikan kepada pemilik entitas induk menjadi US$123,66 ribu hingga periode September 2016 dibandingkan rugi US$1,36 juta periode sama tahun sebelumnya. (Iqp) Puradelta Lestari (DMAS): Perseroan alami penurunan tajam laba bersih per September 2016 menjadi Rp494,48 miliar dibandingkan laba periode sama tahun sebelumnya yang Rp1,22 triliun. (Iqp) Kedaung Indah (KICI): Perseroan menderita rugi sebesar Rp243,52 juta hingga periode September 2016 usai mencatat laba Rp3,10 miliar pada periode sama tahun sebelumnya. (Iqp) Gunawan Dianjaya (GDST): Perseroan meraih laba periode berjalan Rp29,98 miliar hingga September 2016 usai menderita rugi Rp69,09 miliar periode sama tahun sebelumnya. (Iqp) Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA): Perseroan menggelontorkan pinjaman kepada anak usaha tidak langsung PT Andalan Mas Sejahtera senilai Rp150 miliar. Bunga pinjaman itu mencapai 10,5% per tahun. Fasilitas pinjaman akan digunakan untuk peningkatan struktur modal PT Andalan Mas Sejahtera. (Iqp) Bank Dinar International (DNAR): Perseroan alami penurunan laba tahun berjalan menjadi Rp7,438 miliar hingga periode September 2016 dibandingkan laba Rp9,16 miliar periode sama tahun sebelumnya. (Iqp) Trisula International (TRIS): Perseroan melakukan pembelian kembali saham atau buyback saham dengan jumlah maksimal 10% atau maksimal 104.554.632 saham. Biaya pembelian kembali saham maksimal Rp34,5 miliar. Buyback ini menurut manajemen adalah salah satu bentuk usaha perusahaan untuk meningkatkan kinerja saham Perseroan. (Iqp)
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World Economic Calendar 21-Oct-16
Event CN House Price Index
24-Oct-16
GE
Markit PMI Composite Markit Services PMI Markit Manufacturing PMI EU Markit PMI Composite Markit Manufacturing PMI Markit Services PMI US Chicago Fed National Activity Index Markit Manufacturing PMI
Period Sep
Prior 9.20%
Survey
Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Sep Oct
52.8 50.9 54.3 52.6 52.6 52.2 -0.55 51.5
53.2 51.5 54.2 52.8 52.6 52.5
Actual 4.30%
Source:Fxstreet
Indonesia 10yr IDR Govt Bond Yield
RUPS Ticker TBIG FASW BSWD APIC SKBM BEKS TOBA YPAS TRIS BULL HMSP HOME
Dat e 24-Oct-16 26-Oct-16 27-Oct-16 27-Oct-16 28-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 31-Oct-16 1-Nov-16 3-Nov-16 4-Nov-16 18-Nov-16 22-Nov-16
Date
Place Mercantile Athletic Club Kantor Pusat Perseroan JW Mariott Hotel Kantor Pusat Perseroan Ruang Seminar Bursa Efek Indonesia Kantor Pusat Perseroan Ruang Seminar Bursa Efek Indonesia Ruang Seminar Bursa Efek Indonesia Belleza Gapura Prima Office Tow er
Yield (mid)
Act ion
21-Oct-16
7.20
RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB Source: KSEI
20-Oct-16
7.23
19-Oct-16
7.20
18-Oct-16
7.17
17-Oct-16
7.14
Dat e
Indo nesia St o ck Yt d Net Value (Rp bn)
Fo reign Net Buy (Sell) (Rp bn)
JASXFBAT Index 21-Oct-16
17.66
20-Oct-16
235.91
19-Oct-16
32,952.15
(64.48)
18-Oct-16
101.64
17-Oct-16
(483.94)
So urce: B lo o mberg
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Indonesia Government Bonds SR08 SR07 SR06 OR13 OR12 OR11 FR73 FR72 FR71 FR70 FR69 FR68 FR67 FR66 FR65 FR64 FR63 FR62 FR61 FR60 FR59 FR58 FR57 FR56 FR54 FR53 FR52 FR50 FR48 FR47 FR46 FR45 FR44 FR43 FR42 FR40 FR39 FR38 FR37 FR36 FR35 FR34 FR32 FR31 FR28
Mat urit y Bid Price YTM (Bid) Cpn 3/10/2019 103.63 6.64 8.30 3/11/2018 102.25 6.53 8.25 3/5/2017 101.00 5.93 8.75 10/15/2019 100.08 6.57 6.60 10/15/2018 104.42 6.60 9.00 10/15/2017 102.09 6.28 8.50 5/15/2031 111.58 7.43 8.75 5/15/2036 106.35 7.62 8.25 3/15/2029 113.04 7.37 9.00 3/15/2024 107.28 7.09 8.38 4/15/2019 102.31 6.84 7.88 3/15/2034 107.44 7.60 8.38 2/15/2044 111.28 7.75 8.75 5/15/2018 97.88 6.71 5.25 5/15/2033 91.48 7.53 6.63 5/15/2028 91.09 7.28 6.13 5/15/2023 92.41 7.09 5.63 4/15/2042 85.25 7.71 6.38 5/15/2022 100.45 6.90 7.00 4/15/2017 99.85 6.57 6.25 5/15/2027 99.44 7.07 7.00 6/15/2032 106.83 7.50 8.25 5/15/2041 119.85 7.69 9.50 9/15/2026 109.06 7.08 8.38 7/15/2031 117.81 7.48 9.50 7/15/2021 105.11 6.96 8.25 8/15/2030 125.99 7.45 10.50 7/15/2038 129.57 7.68 10.50 9/15/2018 103.95 6.73 9.00 2/15/2028 120.72 7.28 10.00 7/15/2023 112.28 7.16 9.50 5/15/2037 121.39 7.67 9.75 9/15/2024 116.73 7.18 10.00 7/15/2022 114.83 7.05 10.25 7/15/2027 122.08 7.25 10.25 9/15/2025 124.64 7.20 11.00 8/15/2023 124.38 7.16 11.75 8/15/2018 107.85 6.89 11.60 9/15/2026 133.44 7.21 12.00 9/15/2019 112.10 6.81 11.50 6/15/2022 126.97 7.02 12.90 6/15/2021 122.89 6.94 12.80 7/15/2018 113.32 6.66 15.00 11/15/2020 114.21 6.92 11.00 7/15/2017 102.58 6.25 10.00
Next Co upo n Issue Dat e 11/10/2016 3/10/2016 11/11/2016 3/11/2015 11/5/2016 3/5/2014 11/15/2016 10/26/2016 11/15/2016 10/21/2015 11/15/2016 10/22/2014 11/15/2016 8/6/2015 11/15/2016 7/9/2015 3/15/2017 9/12/2013 3/15/2017 8/29/2013 4/15/2017 8/29/2013 3/15/2017 8/1/2013 2/15/2017 7/18/2013 11/15/2016 10/25/2012 11/15/2016 8/30/2012 11/15/2016 8/13/2012 11/15/2016 8/13/2012 4/15/2017 2/9/2012 11/15/2016 10/6/2011 4/15/2017 10/6/2011 11/15/2016 9/15/2011 12/15/2016 7/21/2011 11/15/2016 4/21/2011 3/15/2017 9/23/2010 1/15/2017 7/22/2010 1/15/2017 7/8/2010 2/15/2017 8/20/2009 1/15/2017 1/24/2008 3/15/2017 9/27/2007 2/15/2017 8/30/2007 1/15/2017 7/19/2007 11/15/2016 5/24/2007 3/15/2017 4/19/2007 1/15/2017 2/22/2007 1/15/2017 1/25/2007 3/15/2017 9/21/2006 2/15/2017 8/24/2006 2/15/2017 8/24/2006 3/15/2017 5/18/2006 3/15/2017 4/20/2006 12/15/2016 2/16/2006 12/15/2016 1/26/2006 1/15/2017 9/1/2005 11/15/2016 6/16/2005 1/15/2017 2/24/2005 Source: Bloomberg your reliable partner | 4
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Key Statistic Ticker
Closing Price
Change (%)
P/E (x)
AGRICULTURE, MEDIAN PER= BWPT SSMS LS IP DS NG
(5.65) 6.21 (2.96) (1.96)
24.91 #N/A N/A 26.15 23.70 32.55
(0.66) (5.92) (2.76) (4.00)
23.64 #N/A N/A 25.42 13.30
2.86 (0.34) (0.21) 1.06 (0.58) 0.33 (0.31) -
18.14 54.16 22.64 34.45 38.62 30.41 29.34 18.77
(1.12) (1.88) 0.52 (0.28) (2.40) (2.31) 0.75
25.90 25.50 24.50 2.14 73.08 19.75 32.74
MIN IN G, MEDIAN PER= INCO ITM G PTBA
CON SUMER GOODS, MEDIAN PER= UNVR ULTJ ICBP KLBF M YOR ROTI S IDO
880.00 6,525.00 19,250.00 3,510.00 2,850.00 2,110.00 20,200.00
AKRA LPPF S RTG M IKA M NCN UNTR
PROPERTY & KON STRUKSI MEDIAN PER= AS RI PWON BS DE CTRP CTRA CTRS DILD KIJA LPKR S M RA S S IA ADHI WIKA WS KT LPCK M DLN JRPT
2.86 1.32 1.41 (1.35) 4.48 (4.29) 3.82 0.67 (1.64) (3.72) 1.74 (0.43) (2.99) 0.77 0.41 1.60 -
7.31 12.91 24.72 27.35 12.46 23.24 13.87 14.04 15.12 79.44 69.16 19.84 17.12 23.45 20.46 5.44 7.00 12.64
0.85 (0.61) (0.34) 0.52 (0.51) 1.01
22.67 13.51 65.57 #N/A N/A 13.80
(0.87) 0.22 -
25.05 34.37 15.56 6.35
0.32 (0.46) 0.82 (0.52) 2.07 (0.66) (2.96) 1.87 6.13
20.44 9.36 11.71 9.82 13.17 14.97 9.24 5.77 8.82 9.97
BASIC IN DUSTRY & CHEMICAL, MEDIAN PER=
3,580.00 16,425.00 1,480.00 1,935.00 985.00 10,000.00
CPIN INTP M AIN S M BR S M CB S M GR
8,375.00 2,280.00 4,510.00 254.00
AUTO SMSM S RIL
BBRI BBTN BDM N BM RI BTPN BBKP BJTM BJBR
IN FRASTRUCTURE, MEDIAN PER= CM NP EX CL TBIG S OCI JS M R PGAS TLKM TOWR To p Gainers (%) To p Lo ssers (%) Lo west PER
1.49 3.28 0.83 1.86
1.24 1.13 1.31 2.78
2.54 (0.50) 3.52 12.26
5.36 (0.63) 4.80 21.98
1.08 8.77 3.00 3.35 4.31 2.05 3.48 3.70
1.93 68.88 4.39 7.01 7.51 5.99 6.41 3.13
4.68 35.13 17.02 11.94 15.49 9.68 10.62 15.58
11.19 132.42 21.43 21.60 20.56 21.76 23.80 16.75
3.08 1.53 5.47 1.50 19.21 4.43 1.60
5.77 3.90 0.57 12.98 3.20 1.98
18.68 6.56 48.71 22.40 19.25 10.36 3.75
23.43 15.97 31.57 23.12 16.71 6.03
0.92 3.87 7.47 7.39 1.61 3.30 3.31 2.55 2.06 2.25 4.53 0.61 0.77 1.07 1.76 2.17 1.80 5.07
0.78 1.28 4.39 2.15 0.93 2.83 1.88 1.23 1.25 1.20 4.06 0.93 1.60 3.54 3.57 1.08 0.79 2.69
3.10 3.88 7.34 4.27 3.54 4.02 6.62 4.12 4.14 0.62 1.90 2.16 3.12 3.62 4.95 14.80 5.78 11.33
11.38 10.39 19.22 8.20 7.76 12.94 14.37 9.15 8.73 1.48 6.01 4.74 13.34 16.04 17.20 22.02 11.94 23.00
1.73 3.63 0.59 12.88 0.82 2.22
4.25 2.44 1.93 6.45 0.91 2.24
10.59 16.85 4.93 8.57 1.38 11.66
20.50 19.20 13.91 10.13 3.18 17.00
1.88 0.88 2.28 0.56
3.25 1.19 4.98 1.23
5.50 2.20 18.67 7.08
13.37 3.48 34.12 20.82
6.31 1.93 2.77 1.18 1.44 2.73 1.11 0.58 1.62 1.48
3.77 1.19 2.24 1.15 1.08 1.81 1.02 0.66 1.31 1.75
3.18 2.10 3.05 1.19 1.53 1.86 2.04 1.13 1.87 1.70
20.62 14.72 21.78 13.61 8.45 13.88 12.19 12.80 15.17 19.96
1.93 0.99 7.71 1.59 2.46 1.46 3.76 8.27
0.96 1.27 13.26 0.81 2.79 1.50 5.29 4.36
6.88 1.73 7.39 8.57 4.72 5.30 11.04 16.97
10.77 6.13 55.41 15.86 16.83 11.16 24.72 53.80
11.71
15,800.00 5,425.00 12,225.00 1,910.00 3,950.00 11,225.00 2,670.00 655.00 545.00 1,730.00
BBNI
7.11 (6.10) 19.36 6.04 5.53
20.30
FIN AN CE, MEDIAN PER= BBCA
4.19 (2.42) 8.14 4.90 1.67
13.80
MISCELAN EOUS IN DUSTRY, MEDIAN PER= AS II
1.75 0.95 4.83 1.40 1.72
19.84
288.00 460.00 720.00 2,190.00 700.00 1,560.00 2,990.00 580.00 302.00 900.00 1,680.00 585.00 2,300.00 2,600.00 2,610.00 6,150.00 382.00 825.00
APLN
1.98 2.63 6.18 2.67 1.05
25.50
TRADIN G, MEDIAN PER= ACES
ROE (%)
30.41
2,160.00 44,150.00 4,680.00 9,575.00 1,720.00 1,520.00 1,600.00 550.00
AIS A
ROA (%)
23.64
1,500.00 2,700.00 13,200.00 12,000.00
ADRO
P/B (x)
24.91
14,600.00 191.00 1,540.00 1,475.00 400.00
AALI
P/S (x)
13.88
1,500.00 2,500.00 6,150.00 416.00 4,510.00 2,440.00 4,210.00 3,850.00
(0.66) 0.40 0.82 0.22 (2.01) 0.24 (1.03)
9.21 16.32 5.49 17.81 13.88 23.01 10.30
1
2
3
4
5
SSMS
BJBR
CTRP
CTRS
AIS A
70
69
68
67
66
INCO
AALI
CTRA
PTBA
S M RA
70
69
68
67
66
S OCI
BBKP
S RIL
M DLN
APLN S o urc e : B lo o m be rg, R e lia nc e R e s e a rc h
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