Daily Insight Friday, Sept 9th 2016
Market Update IHSG diprediksi akan bergerak mixed cenderung melemah pada perdagangan hari ini. Pasar saham Eropa dan Amerika ditutup turun kemarin, setelah Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga dan tidak memperpanjang program pembelian aset melebihi jangka waktu yang telah ditentukan sebelumnya sampai dengan Maret 2017. Hal tersebut menjadi sentimen negatif yang dominan meskipun harga minyak mengalami penguatan, serta Unemployment Claims AS turun dibawah estimasi. Pasar saham Jepang, Korea, dan Australia dibuka turun pagi ini. Hari ini investor masih akan menantikan data inflasi dari Tiongkok. Dari dalam negeri, Pemerintah berencana menurunkan kembali harga gas. Sementara Bank Indonesia (BI) memperkirakan bahwa penerimaan tax amnesty sampai dengan akhir tahun ini masih akan jauh dari target. Secara teknikal IHSG tertahan pada support MA7 pada middle bollinger bands. Indikator RSI tertahan pada support MA15 dari momentumnnya. Sedangkan indikator stochastic masih bergerak naik merayap pada poin 60 menuju overbought. Diperkirakan IHSG masih akan bergerak mixed berfluktuatif pada range pergerakan 5320-5430.
Glo bal Market Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 Hang Seng Nikkei Kospi Shanghai Comp All Ordinaries EIDO
8-Sep-16 18,479.91 2,181.30 5,259.48 6,858.70 10,675.29 4,542.20 23,919.34 16,958.77 2,063.73 3,095.95 3,748.06 25.85
Daily -0.2% -0.2% -0.5% 0.2% -0.7% -0.3% 0.7% -0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% -1.3%
Yt d 6.1% 6.7% 5.0% 9.9% -0.6% -2.0% 9.1% -10.9% 5.2% -12.5% 8.8% 23.9%
135.16 927.29 12.51 95.03
-1.6% 0.1% 4.8% 0.1%
-41.2% 16.8% -31.3% -3.7%
Co mmo dit ies (USD) Coal CPO (MYR) Crude Oil Gold Copper Nickel Tin HRC Steel Corn Soybean
8-Sep-16 69.60 2,870.00 47.62 1,338.30 209.60 10,299.50 19,620.00 550.00 327.00 992.00
Daily -0.3% 0.1% 4.7% -0.5% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% -0.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Yt d 50.3% 19.7% 28.6% 26.1% -1.8% 17.2% 34.4% 40.7% -8.9% 13.9%
Indo nesia USDIDR IHSG LQ45 ISSI JII Finance Property Consumer Misc Indust Basic Indust Mining Agriculture Trading Infrastructure
8-Sep-16 13,063.00 5,371.08 924.86 177.75 744.87 796.92 568.13 2,490.83 1,375.34 510.94 1,199.57 1,867.84 859.15 354.74
Daily -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.7% -0.4% -0.8% 0.3% -0.1% 1.2% -0.1% 0.3% -0.6% -0.9%
Yt d -5.3% 16.9% 16.8% 22.5% 23.5% 16.0% 15.7% 20.6% 30.1% 25.3% 47.9% 8.6% 1.1% 11.8%
Indo nesia St o ck Foreign Net Buy (Sell) Value Shares Traded Volume Shares Traded
8-Sep-16 Yt d (253.09) 37,484.89 (bn Rp) 4,501.55 (bn Rp) 4,201.29 (mn shares)
Go vt Bo nd Yield (%) Indonesia 10yr IDR Indonesia 10yr USD US Treasury 10yr
8-Sep-16 6.891 3.211 1.610
Idn CDS 5yr USD MSCI Emerging Mkt CBOE SPX Volatility US Dollar Index
Chg (0.007) 0.047 (0.070) Source: Bloomberg
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Misc Indust
Basic Indust
Finance
Consumer
Property
Infrastructure Trading Mining Agriculture
ASII IJ Equity SMSM IJ Equity SRIL IJ Equity SMGR IJ Equity INTP IJ Equity CPIN IJ Equity JPFA IJ Equity BBTN IJ Equity BBNI IJ Equity BBRI IJ Equity UNVR IJ Equity KAEF IJ Equity INDF IJ Equity WSKT IJ Equity PTPP IJ Equity CTRA IJ Equity SMRA IJ Equity TLKM IJ Equity JSMR IJ Equity MLPL IJ Equity MAPI IJ Equity ELSA IJ Equity PTBA IJ Equity AALI IJ Equity LSIP IJ Equity SIMP IJ Equity SGRO IJ Equity
LS 27 AVG RTRN JCI Index
8-Sep-16 8,300 4,290 252 10,050 17,400 3,610 1,655 2,000 5,800 11,975 45,750 2,600 8,425 2,640 4,490 1,590 1,740 4,160 4,760 436 4,500 490 10,100 16,475 1,585 500 1,980 5,371
Daily 0.0% 1.7% -1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 3.1% -0.5% -0.4% 0.0% -0.2% 10.2% -1.2% -1.9% -2.6% -1.9% -0.9% -1.2% -0.2% -2.2% -0.4% 0.0% -2.7% -1.5% -0.9% 0.0% 0.3% -0.1% -0.2%
Yt d P/E 2017E 38.3% 16.0 -9.9% 11.6 -35.2% N/A -11.8% 10.6 -22.1% 12.5 38.8% 18.4 160.6% 23.1 54.4% 8.0 16.2% 8.3 4.8% 9.8 23.6% 47.7 198.9% 47.2 62.8% 16.3 58.1% 22.5 15.9% 18.6 9.6% 14.7 5.5% 15.9 34.0% 20.2 -8.9% 18.3 69.6% N/A 18.6% 18.1 98.4% 15.9 123.2% 13.6 9.1% 13.2 20.1% 12.8 50.6% 10.2 16.5% 8.8 38.5% 16.9% Source: Bloomberg
Berita Ekonomi dan Emiten: Bukit Asam (PTBA): Perseroan sampai akhir 2016 mampu menghemat anggaran sekira Rp4 triliun, yang berasal dari efisiensi investasi Rp3,5 triliun dan efisiensi biaya operasional Rp500 miliar. (Ok.com) J Resources (PSAB): Perseroan akan menggelar penambahan modal tanpa hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (non HMETD) atau private placement dengan target dana Rp 950,44 miliar. Perseroan akan melepas sebanyak 2,64 miliar saham atau maksimal 10%. (Id.com) Aneka Tambang (ANTM): Perseroan siap mengekspor bijih nikel antara 15-20 juta ton pada tahun 2017. Saat ini cadangan dan sumber daya nikel Antam mencapai 988,30 wet metrik ton (WMT) terdiri atas 580,2 juta WMT bijih nikel kadar tinggi dan 48,1 WMT bijih nikel kadar rendah. (Ok.com) Rig Tenders Indonesia (RIGS): Perseroan meraih pinjaman melalui anak usahanya PT Batuah Abadi Lines (BAL) senilai US$ 20 juta dari ICICI Bank Limited Sisngapore Branch. Penandatangan pinjaman sebelumnya telah dilaksanakan pada 20 Juni 2016. (Id.com) Vale Indonesia (INCO): Perseroan hingga akhir Agustus 2016 telah mengeluarkan biaya eksplorasi senilai US$702.813,73, yang difokuskan pada eksplorasi daerah-daerah di dalam kontrak karya. (An.com) Smartfren Telecom (FREN): Perseroan membukukan kontribusi dari lini digital services terhadap total pendapatan perseroan sebesar 3-5% pada kuartal II-2016. Jumlah tersebut cukup signifikan karena lini tersebut mulai dikembangkan sekitar satu tahun. Secara umum, pengguna digital services perseroan tumbuh sebesar 75% hingga September ini. (Br.com) Bank Mandiri (BMRI): Perseroan Pada tujuh bulan pertama 2016, telah menyalurkan KUR sebesar Rp7,417 triliun kepada 179.724 debitur atau sekitar 57,1% dari target penyaluran tahun ini sebesar Rp13 triliun. Dari nilai tersebut, KUR sebesar Rp2,338 triliun diteruskan kepada usaha mikro, lalu sebesar Rp5,074 triliun disalurkan kepada usaha ritel, dan KUR sebesar Rp3,6 miliar ditujukan kepada TKI. (Iqp) Resources Alam Indonesia (KKGI): Perseroan menghabiskan biaya eksplorasi sebesar US$1.319.184 sampai bulan Juli 2016. Kegiatan eksplorasi pengembangan dilakukan di area sub blok Tani Bakti. Eksplorasi dilakukan oleh anak usaha perseroan PT Insani Baruperkasa. (Iqp) Perdana Gapuraprima (GPRA): Perseroan membidik akuisisi lahan di Maja, Banten, seluas 50 hektare. Lahan tersebut rencananya akan dikembangkan untuk proyek perumahan terjangkau bagi kalangan masyarkat berpenghasilan rendah dan juga untuk segmen menengah. (Bi.com) Verenca Multi Finance (VRNA): Perseroan siap membayar utang sebesar Rp 23 miliar. Utang tersebut merupakan obligasi berkelanjutan I Tahap I tahun 2012 Seri C yang akan jatuh tempo 11 Desember 2016. (Ko.co.id)
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World Economic Calender 08-Sep-16
09-Sep-16
Event CN Imports (YoY) Trade Balance CNY Trade Balance U SD Exports (YoY) JP Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook Eco Watchers Survey: Current EU ECB Interest Rate Decision ECB deposit rate decision U S Continuing Jobless Claims Initial Jobless Claims EIA Crude Oil Stocks change Consumer Credit Change
Period Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Aug Sep Sep Aug
CN Producer Price Index (YoY) Consumer Price Index (MoM) Consumer Price Index (YoY) FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) JP Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) GE Current Account n.s.a. Exports (MoM) Trade Balance s.a. Imports (MoM) U S Baker Hughes U S Oil Rig Count
Prior -12.50% 342.8B $52.308B -4.40% 47.1 45.1 0% -0.40% 2.159M 263K 2.276M $12.32B
Aug Aug Aug Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Sep
-1.70% 0.20% 1.80% 4.30% 0.80% €26.3B 0.30% €21.7B 1.00% 407
Survey -4.90% $58.000B -4.00%
0% -0.40% 2.153M 265K $16.00B
Actual 1.50% 346.0B $52.050B -2.80% 47.4 45.6 0% -0.40% 2.144M 259K -14.513M $17.71B
-0.90% 0.30% 1.70%
0.25% €22.0B 0.80% Source:Fxstreet
Indo nesia 10yr IDR Go vt Bo nd Yield
RUPS Ticker MBSS HEXA RIGS IBFN PRAS MCOR TOTO BIPI BBHI ARTI AGRO ELTY MLBI SQMI MEDC BMTR MNCN BHIT BCAP
Date Dat e
9-Sep-16 15-Sep-16 15-Sep-16 15-Sep-16 16-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16
Place Kantor Pusat Perseroan Grandkemang Hotel
Financial Club Jakarta Hotel Pullman Jakarta Asean Tow er
Hotel All Season Gedung The Energy Auditorium MNC Tow er Auditorium MNC Tow er Auditorium MNC Tow er Auditorium MNC Tow er
Yield (mid)
Act io n
8-Sep-16
7.00
RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB RUPSLB Source: KSEI
7-Sep-16
6.99
6-Sep-16
7.01
5-Sep-16
7.06
2-Sep-16
7.14
Dat e
Indo nesia St o ck Yt d Net Value (Rp bn)
Fo reign Net Buy (Sell) (Rp bn)
JASXFBAT Index 8-Sep-16
(253.09)
7-Sep-16
(237.51)
6-Sep-16
155.21
5-Sep-16
435.83
2-Sep-16
(6.30)
37,484.89
So urce: B lo o mberg
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Indonesia Government Bonds M at urit y
Bid Price
YTM (Bid)
Cpn
Next Co upo n Issue Dat e
OR10
10/15/2016
100.308
4.90
8.50 9/15/2016
10/9/2013
OR11
10/15/2017
102.221
6.38
8.50 9/15/2016
10/22/2014
OR12
10/15/2018
105.086
6.39
9.00 9/15/2016
10/21/2015
SR06
3/5/2017
101.334
5.89
8.75 10/5/2016
3/5/2014
SR07
3/11/2018
102.527
6.47
8.25 10/11/2016
3/11/2015
FR28
7/15/2017
103.020
6.21
10.00 1/15/2017
2/24/2005
FR31
11/15/2020
115.573
6.65
11.00 11/15/2016
6/16/2005
FR32
7/15/2018
114.359
6.55
15.00 1/15/2017
9/1/2005
FR34
6/15/2021
124.602
6.67
12.80 12/15/2016
1/26/2006
FR35
6/15/2022
128.605
6.80
12.90 12/15/2016
2/16/2006
FR36
9/15/2019
113.176
6.59
11.50 9/15/2016
4/20/2006
FR37
9/15/2026
135.469
7.01
12.00 9/15/2016
5/18/2006
FR38
8/15/2018
108.991
6.53
11.60 2/15/2017
8/24/2006
FR39
8/15/2023
126.298
6.90
11.75 2/15/2017
8/24/2006
FR40
9/15/2025
126.519
6.98
11.00 9/15/2016
9/21/2006
FR42
7/15/2027
124.028
7.04
10.25 1/15/2017
1/25/2007
FR43
7/15/2022
116.158
6.84
10.25 1/15/2017
2/22/2007
FR44
9/15/2024
118.219
6.99
10.00 9/15/2016
4/19/2007
FR45
5/15/2037
123.244
7.52
FR46
7/15/2023
113.816
FR47
2/15/2028
122.367
FR48
9/15/2018
FR50 FR52
9.75 11/15/2016
5/24/2007
6.92
9.50 1/15/2017
7/19/2007
7.11
10.00 2/15/2017
8/30/2007
104.552
6.54
9.00 9/15/2016
9/27/2007
7/15/2038
132.424
7.47
10.50 1/15/2017
1/24/2008
8/15/2030
127.804
7.29
10.50 2/15/2017
8/20/2009
FR53
7/15/2021
106.505
6.65
8.25 1/15/2017
7/8/2010
FR54
7/15/2031
119.653
7.31
9.50 1/15/2017
7/22/2010
FR55
9/15/2016
99.800
78.26
7.38 9/15/2016
9/23/2010
FR56
9/15/2026
110.570
6.89
8.38 9/15/2016
9/23/2010
FR57
5/15/2041
120.500
7.64
9.50 11/15/2016
4/21/2011
FR58
6/15/2032
108.603
7.32
8.25 12/15/2016
7/21/2011
FR59
5/15/2027
100.066
6.99
7.00 11/15/2016
9/15/2011
FR60
4/15/2017
99.782
6.62
6.25 10/15/2016
10/6/2011
FR61
5/15/2022
101.301
6.72
7.00 11/15/2016
10/6/2011
FR62
4/15/2042
86.000
7.63
6.38 10/15/2016
2/9/2012
FR63
5/15/2023
93.425
6.87
5.63 11/15/2016
8/13/2012
FR64
5/15/2028
91.855
7.17
6.13 11/15/2016
8/13/2012
FR65
5/15/2033
93.220
7.34
6.63 11/15/2016
8/30/2012
FR66
5/15/2018
97.945
6.56
5.25 11/15/2016
10/25/2012
FR67
2/15/2044
113.012
7.61
8.75 2/15/2017
7/18/2013
FR68
3/15/2034
109.660
7.38
8.38 9/15/2016
8/1/2013
FR69
4/15/2019
103.083
6.56
7.88 10/15/2016
8/29/2013
FR70
3/15/2024
108.752
6.86
8.38 9/15/2016
8/29/2013
FR71
3/15/2029
114.314
7.24
9.00 9/15/2016
9/12/2013
FR72
5/15/2036
109.505
7.33
8.25 11/15/2016
7/9/2015
FR73
5/15/2031
113.490
7.24
8.75 11/15/2016
8/6/2015
Source: Bloomberg
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Key Statistic Closing Price
Change (%)
P/E (x)
P/S (x)
P/B (x)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
28.53 AALI BWPT SSMS LS IP DS NG
16,725.00 193.00 1,685.00 1,600.00 478.00
0.90 (1.53) 0.30 (0.31) (1.24)
28.53 28.61 25.71 38.89
1,245.00 2,920.00 11,425.00 10,375.00
1.63 1.39 0.22 2.72
2,100.00 45,850.00 4,650.00 9,700.00 1,790.00 1,505.00 1,615.00 540.00
(0.47) 1.21 3.33 2.37 0.56 1.89 -
17.64 56.25 22.49 34.90 40.19 30.11 29.62 18.43
950.00 6,900.00 18,750.00 3,590.00 2,890.00 2,090.00 18,700.00
(1.55) (1.83) (0.28) 3.21 (2.86)
27.96 26.97 23.87 2.19 74.10 19.56 30.31
296.00 494.00 640.00 2,190.00 585.00 1,620.00 2,500.00 605.00 316.00 1,045.00 1,755.00 595.00 2,690.00 3,270.00 2,690.00 6,350.00 370.00 840.00
(0.67) (0.80) 0.79 0.46 (2.50) 2.53 (3.85) 2.54 (1.25) (0.85) (0.83) (0.37) 0.79 (2.63) -
7.51 13.86 21.98 27.35 10.99 20.96 9.09 14.65 15.82 92.24 72.25 20.18 20.02 29.49 21.09 5.61 6.78 12.87
3,570.00 17,350.00 1,825.00 1,535.00 1,125.00 10,050.00
(2.46) (1.98) (0.97) (0.44) (1.47)
22.61 14.27 52.02 13.86
0.48 0.79
24.83 33.31 14.56 6.40
15,200.00 5,825.00 11,975.00 2,010.00 3,870.00 11,275.00 2,700.00 685.00 570.00 1,595.00
1.16 (0.43) 0.84 1.01 (2.03) 0.89 1.89 (0.72) 1.79 1.59
19.66 9.85 11.47 10.34 12.90 15.04 9.34 6.04 9.23 9.34
1,655.00 2,770.00 5,600.00 420.00 4,770.00 2,800.00 4,210.00 3,980.00
(1.49) (1.42) (0.44) (0.21) (1.41) (0.71) 0.25
10.16 14.86 5.54 20.99 15.91 23.01 10.65
2.27 2.66 6.77 2.90 1.25
2.01 0.96 5.29 1.52 2.06
4.19 (2.42) 8.14 4.90 1.67
7.11 (6.10) 19.36 6.04 5.53
1.24 3.54 0.72 1.61
1.03 1.22 1.13 2.41
2.54 (0.50) 3.52 12.26
5.36 (0.63) 4.80 21.98
1.05 9.10 2.98 3.39 4.48 2.03 3.51 3.63
1.87 71.53 4.36 7.10 7.82 5.94 6.47 3.07
4.68 35.13 17.02 11.94 15.49 9.68 10.62 15.58
11.19 132.42 21.43 21.60 20.56 21.76 23.80 16.75
3.33 1.62 5.33 1.53 19.48 4.39 1.49
6.23 4.12 0.58 13.16 3.17 1.84
18.68 6.56 48.71 22.40 19.25 10.36 3.75
23.43 15.97 31.57 23.12 16.71 6.03
0.94 4.15 6.64 7.39 1.41 3.38 2.65 2.66 2.15 2.62 4.74 0.62 0.90 1.35 1.82 2.24 1.74 5.16
0.81 1.38 3.90 2.15 0.77 2.93 1.57 1.29 1.31 1.39 4.24 0.94 1.87 4.45 3.68 1.11 0.76 2.74
3.10 3.88 7.34 4.27 3.41 4.77 8.64 4.12 4.14 0.62 1.90 2.16 3.12 3.62 4.95 14.80 5.78 11.33
11.38 10.39 19.22 8.20 7.31 14.84 18.66 9.15 8.73 1.48 6.01 4.74 13.34 16.04 17.20 22.02 11.94 23.00
1.73 3.83 0.72 10.22 0.94 2.23
4.24 2.58 2.38 5.12 1.04 2.26
10.59 16.85 4.93 8.57 1.38 11.66
20.50 19.20 13.91 10.13 3.18 17.00
1.87 0.86 2.13 0.57
3.22 1.15 4.66 1.24
5.50 2.20 18.67 7.08
13.37 3.48 34.12 20.82
6.07 2.18 2.71 1.24 1.41 2.74 1.12 0.61 1.69 1.39
3.63 1.33 2.20 1.21 1.06 1.82 1.03 0.69 1.37 1.66
3.18 2.27 3.05 1.19 1.53 1.86 2.04 1.13 1.87 1.71
20.62 15.71 21.78 13.61 8.45 13.88 12.19 12.80 15.17 20.35
2.13 1.09 7.02 1.60 3.01 1.68 3.76 8.55
1.06 1.41 12.08 0.81 3.08 1.72 5.29 4.51
6.88 1.73 7.39 8.57 4.51 5.30 11.04 16.97
10.77 6.13 55.41 15.86 15.58 11.16 24.72 53.80
19.60 ADRO INCO ITM G PTBA
19.60 #N/A N/A 21.98 11.50 30.11
AIS A UNVR ULTJ ICBP KLBF M YOR ROTI S IDO
26.97 ACES AKRA LPPF S RTG M IKA M NCN UNTR
20.18 APLN AS RI PWON BS DE CTRP CTRA CTRS DILD KIJA LPKR S M RA S S IA ADHI WIKA WS KT LPCK M DLN JRPT
14.07 CPIN INTP M AIN S M BR S M CB S M GR
19.69 AS II AUTO SMSM S RIL
8,300.00 2,210.00 4,220.00 256.00
11.47 BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BDM N BM RI BTPN BBKP BJTM BJBR
14.86 CM NP EX CL TBIG S OCI JS M R PGAS TLKM TOWR To p Gainers (%) To p Lo ssers (%) Lo west PER
1
3
4
5
6
ULTJ
PTBA
DILD
CTRA
ICBP
69
68
67
65
64
UNTR
M DLN
CTRP
BDM N
INTP
70
69
68
67
65
LPCK
BBKP
S RIL
M DLN
CTRS S o urc e : B lo o m be rg, R e lia nc e R e s e a rc h
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Solo Jl. Slamet Riyadi 330ª Solo 57145 T. +62 271 736599 F. +62 271 733478
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