Company Update
Perusahaan Gas Negara Bloomberg: PGAS.IJ | Reuters: PGAS.JK
Samuel Equity Research
31 January 2017
Energy holding for future prospect
Buy (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 3,375
Last Price
Rp 2,880
Potential Upside
17.2%
JCI Index
5,400
Share Issued (m n)
24,242
Market Cap. (Rp bn)
64,967
52-Weeks High/Low
3,520/ 2,170
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
43%
Nom inal Value
100
EPS 2017
Rp 281
Relative to JCI Chart 20% Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
… estimasi kenaikan volume distribusi 12% y-y. Ekonom kami memperkirakan, kenaikan harga beberapa komoditas utama akan mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi (SSI GDP17F: 5.2%), sehingga Perseroan yang 97% pelanggan utamanya adalah kalangan industri, kami estimasi mampu mencetak 12% y-y pertumbuhan volume distribusi. Ekspektasi realisasinya pembentukan holding energi. Direktur Utama PT Pertamina (Persero) Dwi Soetjipto, menyatakan pembentukan energy holding tinggal menunggu terbitnya peraturan pemerintah (PP). Sosialisasi internal antara Pertamina dan perseroan sejak Desember 2016 memberikan sinyal kelanjutan dari realisasi energy holding.
Sep-16
-40% PGAS -60%
Laba bersih kami estimasi tumbuh 21% y-y di 2017, dengan … Kami estimasikan laba bersih PGAS 2017 tumbuh 21% y-y menjadi US$487 juta, merefleksikan ekspektasi marjin gas distribusi perseroan sebesar US$3.1/mmbtu. Saat ini, kami belum memasukkan prospek Pertagas dalam valuasi kami, menunggu kejelasan skema pembentukan holding energi ini.
51.97
Free Float
0% Jan-15 -20%
Laba bersih diperkirakan tumbuh 21% y-y. Pembentukan energy holding disinyalir akan terealisasi. Mempertahankan BUY untuk PGAS, dengan TP Rp 3,375/lembar saham, 17E’PE: 12.1x, dan PBV: 1.6x).
JCI
-80%
Com pany Background PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk beroperasi di bidang distribusi dan transmisi gas alam untuk pengguna industri, komersial dan rumah tangga. Belakangan, perusahaan juga masuk ke bisnis hulu migas dengan mengakuisisi beberapa blok migas. Shareholder Structure Republik Indonesia
57.0%
Capital group
14.3%
Public
28.8%
Arandi Ariantara +62 21 2854 8148
[email protected]
Pertukaran Saka – Pertagas meminimalisir dana akuisisi PGAS. Di 2015, Saka Energi memiliki asset sebelum eliminasi sebesar US$2,5 miliar sedangkan Pertagas US$1,8 miliar, sehingga transaksi ini memungkinkan PGAS untuk seminim mungkin mengeluarkan dana dalam akuisisi Pertagas. Belanja modal terfokus untuk pengembangan infrastruktur gas. Di 2017, perseroan mengalokasikan US$500 juta belanja modal dengan 50% dari anggaran untuk ekspansi hulu, sehingga apabila aset hulu dialihkan ke Pertamina, perseroan memiliki ruang dana lebih besar untuk memenuhi target pembangunan 1.685km pipa gas bumi hingga 2019. Mempertahankan BUY dengan TP Rp 3.375: Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dengan target price (TP) di Rp 3.375, merefleksikan P/E ‘17 12x dan potensi upside 17%. Resiko dari rekomendasi kami adalah lebih buruknya volume distribusi dan berlarutnya pembentukan energy holding. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp2,880 per share) Y/E Dec (US$ mn) Revenue EBIT EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp/share) Book value per share DPS (Rp/share) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Net Gearing (%)
www.samuel.co.id
15A 3,069 565 1,002 401 232 1,744 154.4 5.4 7.5 12.4 1.7 52.0
16E 2,885 565 880 404 233 1,892 88.4 3.1 8.5 12.3 1.5 44.0
17E 3,339 668 1,041 487 281 2,088 82.6 2.9 7.2 10.2 1.4 24.5
18E 3,785 778 1,126 582 336 2,317 99.7 3.5 6.7 8.6 1.2 3.9
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS.IJ | PGAS.JK
Figure 1. Profitability margin, 2015 – ‘18E
35.0
32.6
31.2
30.5
29.7
30.0 25.0
20.0 15.0
15.414.5
14.613.5
14.0 12.3
13.113.3
10.0 5.0 2015A
2016E
EBITDA margin
2017E
Net margin
2018E
ROE
Source : Bloomberg, Company, SSI Research
Figure 2. Distribution volumes vs utilization rate, 2015 – ‘18E
1,050 1,000
1,008
62%
61%
950
913
900
850 800
62%
60% 802
750
818 58%
59%
58%
58%
700
58% 57%
650 600
56% 2015A
2016E
Distribution volumes
2017E
2018E
Utilization rate
Source : Company, SSI Research
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Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS.IJ | PGAS.JK
Figure 3. 9M16 Gas Distribution Customers Basic metals 3%
Textile 2%
Cement 1%
Wood 0%
Lifting oil 0%
CNG 0%
Paper 4% Others 2%
Glass 5% Fabricated metals 6%
Power plants 42% Foods 10%
Ceramic 10% Chemicals 14%
Source : Company, SSI Research
Figure 4. Energy holding structure
Tahap 1
Pemerintah RI
Tahap 2
57% + 1 saham seriA
Pemerintah RI
100% 1 lembar saham seri A
PGAS
100%
Pertamina
Pertamina 100% 57%
100%
100%
Saka Energy Aset US$2,5 miliar
Pertagas Aset US$1,8 miliar
Saka Energy Aset US$2,5 miliar
PGAS
100%
PGAS mengalihkan SakaEnergy ke Pertamina dan Pertamina mengalihkan Pertagas
Pertagas Aset US$1,8 miliar
Source : SSI Research
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Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS.IJ | PGAS.JK
Figure 5. Capex realization (US$mn), 2011 – 2017E
3,000
2,676.0
2,500 2,000 1,500
Prior upstream business 972.0
880.7
1,000
400.0 - 500.0
500
102.5
139.6
2011
2012
500.0
0 2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
Source : Company, SSI Research
Figure 5. Pertagas & PGAS summary, 2015
Description Market share Distribution pipeline Transmission pipeline Length Sales volume Revenue Gross profit margin EBIT margin Net income margin Interest coverage ratio Assets Net gearing
Business operation
Unit % % km mmscfd USDmn % % % x USDmn %
Pertagas 20
PGAS 81 49 7,059 1,567 3,069 31.4 18.4 13.1 5 6,495 52.0
1,962 1,455 624 41.9 33.5 24.2 9 1,840 35.9 Pertagas focused on the transport of gas PGAS focused on the through open access trade and pipeline distribution of gas infrastructure
Source : Company, SSI Research
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Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS.IJ | PGAS.JK
Key Financials Profit and Loss (US$ mn) 15A Gas Distribution Revenue 2,613 Other Revenue 456 Total Operating Revenue 3,069 Operating Expenses 2,503 Operating profit 565 Operating margin (%) 18.4 EBITDA 1,002 EBITDA margin (%) 32.6 Other income (expenses)(559) Pre-tax profit 443 Income tax - net (40) Net profit 401 Net profit margin (%) 13.1
16E 2,536 348 2,885 2,320 565 19.6 880 30.5 (361) 520 (114) 404 14.0
17E 2,886 454 3,339 2,672 668 20.0 1,041 31.2 (413) 627 (138) 487 14.6
18E 3,255 530 3,785 3,007 778 20.6 1,126 29.7 (377) 749 (165) 582 15.4
Balance Sheet Yr-end Dec (US$ mn) 15A Cash & ST Investment 1,136 Receivables 287 Inventories 43 Others 65 Total current assets 1,530 Net fixed assets 3,565 Other assets 1,400 Total assets 6,495 Payables 117 Debt 2,709 Other long term liabilities 646 Total liabilities 3,472 Minority interest 2 Total equity 3,020
16E 1,196 271 65 65 1,596 3,720 1,390 6,706 108 2,639 680 3,427 2 3,276
17E 1,703 314 75 65 2,156 3,469 1,384 7,009 125 2,588 678 3,391 2 3,615
18E 2,401 355 82 65 2,903 3,116 1,378 7,397 136 2,556 691 3,383 2 4,011
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Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (US$ mn) 15A EBIT 565 Depreciation & amort. 436 Others (101) Working capital (78) Operating cash flow 528 Net - Capital expenditure (751) Investing cash flow (222) Net -Borrowings 856 Other financing (629) Financing cash flow 227 Net - Cash flow 5 Cash at beginning 1,131 Cash at ending 1,136
16E 565 316 (2) 19 738 (469) 270 (69) (141) (210) 60 1,136 1,196
17E 668 373 5 (38) 822 (116) 706 (51) (148) (199) 507 1,196 1,703
18E 778 348 (59) (24) 905 12 918 (32) (187) (219) 699 1,703 2,401
Key Ratios Yr-end Dec ROE (%) ROA (%) Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (% ) Interest coverage (x) Debt to equity (%) Net gearing (% )
15A 13.6 6.6 (5.7) 2.3 (39.5) 4.7 89.7 52.1
16E 12.8 6.1 (6.0) (12.1) 0.7 4.9 80.6 44.1
17E 14.1 7.1 15.8 18.2 20.6 6.0 71.6 24.5
18E 15.3 8.1 13.3 8.2 19.4 7.0 63.7 3.9
Major Assumptions Yr-end Dec 15A Distribution Vol. (mmscfd) 802 Rate margincapacity (USD/mmbtu) 3.4 Distribution (mmscfd) 1,300
16E 818 3.1 1,410
17E 913 3.1 1,574
18E 1,008 3.3 1,738
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Perusahaan Gas Negara
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Adde Chandra Kurniawan
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
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