Company Update
Medco Energi Internasional Bloomberg: MEDC.IJ | Reuters: MEDC.JK
Samuel Research
21 April 2017
Cementing core business BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 4,500
Last Price
Rp 3,170
Potential Upside
42.0%
JCI Index
5,624
Share issued (mn)
3,332
Market Cap. (Rp bn)
10,564
52-Weeks High/Low
1,145 / 3,720
Avg Daily Vol (mn)
14.40
Free Float
18.4%
Nominal Value
Rp 100
Book value/share ‘17
Rp 4,092
Relative to JCI Chart 20% 0% 1/5/2015 -20%
1/5/2016
1/5/2017
-40% -60% -80% -100% MEDC Equity
JCI Index
Company Background PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) adalah perusahaan yang bergerak di sektor minyak dan gas dengan aset yang tersebar di dalam dan luar negeri. Pada akhir tahun 2016, perseroan memasuki bisnis tambang melalui akuisisi Amman Mineral Investama, induk usaha dari Newmont Nusa Tenggara
Shareholder Structure Encore Energy Pte Ltd Credit Suisse Trust Account Prudential Life Assurance
36.4%
Mitsubishi UFJ
15.3%
Lainnya
21.2% 7.3% 0.3%
Public
19.5%
Arandi Ariantara +62 21 2854 8148
[email protected]
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
Tambahan 35% hak partisipasi South Natuna menjadi katalis pendorong kinerja. Kami mengubah metode valuasi Amman dari DCF ke EV/reserves dan memasukkan estimasi pembiayaan belanja modal sebesar US$ 9 miliar dengan struktur debt to equity 60:40. Mempertahankan BUY dan TP Rp 4.500 (SOTP). Prospek positif dari tambahan 35% hak partisipasi South Natuna, … Di bulan Maret 2017, MEDC mengakuisisi 35% hak partisipasi South Natuna Sea Block B (SNSB) dari INPEX senilai US$ 167 juta. Akuisisi ini membuat MEDC memegang hak partisipasi sebesar 75% di SNSB dan berpotensi mendorong produksi perseroan lebih besar dari yang ditargetkan (SSI ‘17F: 91 ribu barrel oil equivalent/day (mboe/d) vs MEDC ‘17F: 80 mboe/d). … memberikan kontribusi sekitar 32% dari produksi 2017. Produksi kami prediksi tumbuh 38% yoy. Secara konservatif kami perkirakan produksi SNSB di 2017 sebesar 29,2 mboe/d dan secara total, kami proyeksikan produksi MEDC tumbuh 38% yoy menjadi 91 ribu mboe/d dengan SNSB berkontribusi sekitar 32%, diikuti oleh Senoro –Toili (figure 2). EBITDA kami proyeksikan tumbuh 73% seiring stabilnya biaya produksi ditengah peningkatan produksi. Kami estimasi biaya produksi 2017 akan stabil di bawah US$10/boe, sehingga 38% peningkatan produksi akan berimbas positif untuk EBITDA, kami memproyeksikan tumbuh 73%. Di sisi lain, laba bersih kami proyeksikan flat di tahun ini disebabkan oleh peningkatan beban bunga serta pajak efektif minyak dan gas (2016: 24% 2017F: 40%). Laba bersih FY17E US$ 182 juta, (-1% yoy). Produksi emas dan tembaga ditargetkan lebih rendah akibat transisi fase, sementara ... MEDC menargetkan produksi emas dan tembaga Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (AMNT) tahun ini sebesar 420 ribu troy once (toz) emas dan 310 juta pound (lbs) tembaga, atau turun 47% dan 35% yoy. Dimana transisi pertambangan dari fase 6 ke fase 7 menjadi katalis. … belanja modal berkelanjutan AMNT mencapai US$ 9 miliar, membuat kami mengubah metode valuasi. Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) memberitakan belanja modal berkelanjutan AMNT mencapai US$ 9 miliar. Untuk itu kami memasukkan belanja modal tersebut ke dalam valuasi EV/reserves dengan struktur debt to equity (60:40). Mempertahankan BUY dan TP Rp 4.500. Kami mempertahankan BUY dengan target price di Rp 4.500 (metode SOTP). Resiko dari investasi adalah tidak tercapainya target produksi 2017. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp3,170 per share) Y/E Dec (US$ mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 575 600 874 928 EBIT 105 153 342 349 EBITDA 219 273 471 479 Net Profit (188) 185 182 194 EPS (Rp) (756) 752 721 769 BVPS (Rp) 2,799 3,544 4,092 4,708 DPS (Rp) na 301 144 154 Dividend Yield (%) na 9.5 4.5 4.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 9.4 5.3 4.6 P/BV Ratio (x) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 P/E Ratio (x) na 4.2 4.4 4.1 Net Gearing (x) 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.2
Page 1 of 6
Medco Energy Internasional MEDC:IJ | MEDC.JK Figure 1. Produksi MEDC, 2014 – 2018E
(mboe/d) 120 100
80
82.2 90.8
82.2 98.4
56% 64%
59% 64%
64.5 68.0
55.0 55.0
53.1 53.1
44%
42%
56%
58%
44% 46%
36% 44%
36% 41%
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
60
40 20
54% 56%
0 Minyak
Gas
Sumber: Perseroan, SSI Research
Figure 2. Kontributor produksi MEDC, 2016 – 2017E
2016
2017E
Other 1%
Tunisia 1% USA 0.5%
Tunisia 2% USA 1%
Oman 13% Rimau 15%
South Natuna 3%
Other 0% Oman Rimau 9% 10% SCS 15%
SCS 24% Senoro Toili 29%
South Natuna 32%
Lematang 6% Senoro Toili 23%
Tarakan 3%
Tarakan 2%
Lematang 10%
Sumber: Perseroan, SSI Research
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
Page 2 of 6
Medco Energy Internasional MEDC:IJ | MEDC.JK Figure 3. Porsi pendapatan bersih vs cost recovery, 2014 – 2018E
(US$ mn) 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
855.1
974.8
701.4 44%
574.4
567.1
59%
64%
41%
36%
2015
2016
62%
56%
2014
Pendapatan bersih
63%
38%
37%
2017E
2018E
Cost recovery*
Sumber: SSI Research, Perseroan *estimasi SSI Research
Figure 4. Biaya lifting minyak, 2014 – 2018E
(US$/boe) 20 15.4
15
12.3
4.1
8.8
8.9
9.3
2.7
2.2
2.8
8
6.1
6.6
6.6
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
4.3
10 5
11.3
0 2014
Lifting costs
G&A
Sumber: SSI Research, Perseroan
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
Page 3 of 6
Medco Energy Internasional MEDC:IJ | MEDC.JK Figure 5. Perusahaan pembanding Gold Company
Market Cap EV (US$ bn) (US$ bn)
Reserve (mn oz)
EV/Reserve
Newmont
18.3
21.3
73.7
0.3
Newcrest
14.6
16.6
65.0
0.3
AngloGold Ashanti Gold Corp Harmony Gold Gold Fields Kinross Freeport -McMoran Average
5.4 13.1 1.2 3.4 4.7 18.4 79.3
7.4 15.7 1.2 4.7 5.7 33.4
51.7 42.3 42.6 37.3 33.2 27.0
0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.5
Copper Company
Market Cap EV (US$ bn) (bln USD)
Sourthen Copper BHP Biliton Freeport -McMoran Rio Tinto Average
27.0 92.8 18.4 72.8 211.1
Reserve (bn lbs)
32.4 118.7 33.4 88.3
143 95 136 69
EV/Reserve 0.2 1.2 0.2 1.3 1.0
Sumber: Bloomberg, SSI Research
Figure 6. Valuasi Amman
Multiples EV/mn toz EV/bn lbs
Items Gold (mn toz) Copper (bn lbs)
Enterprise Value (US$ bn) 60% debt of US$ 9bn Equity value Share outs. (bn) Target prices MEDC portion 41% IDR/US$ 13,650 IDR
Batu Hijau Reserves Avg 4.6 0.5 4.8 1.0 Total
EV US$bn 2.2 5.0 7.3
7.3 (5.4) 1.6 6.8 0.2 0.1 1,500
Sumber: Bloomberg, SSI Research
Figure 7. SOTP Valuation
Sum of the part MEDC NNT Target price Current price Upside
IDR 3,000 1,500 4,500 3,170 42%
Sumber: SSI Research
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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Medco Energy Internasional MEDC:IJ | MEDC.JK Key Financial Summary Profit and Loss
Cash Flow
Yr-end Dec (US$ mn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Yr-end Dec (US$ mn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Revenue
575
600
874
928
Net income
(188)
185
182
194
Cost of goods sold
358
350
428
469
Depreciation & amort.
126
128
129
130
Gross profit
217
251
446
458
Others
293
(32)
160
155
G&A & Other Exp.
112
98
104
109
Working capital
79
(452)
221
297
Operating profit
105
153
342
349
Operating CF
310
(172)
693
776
Operating margin (%)
18.3
25.5
39.1
37.6
Net - CapEx
(369)
24
(410)
(320)
EBITDA
219
273
471
479
Others
199
(567)
EBITDA margin (%)
38.1
45.4
53.9
51.6
Investing CF
(170)
(544)
(410)
(320)
Other income (exp.)
(228)
107
(12)
394
353
(36)
(396)
Pre-tax profit
(123)
260
330
350
Other financing
(278)
64
(191)
(188)
Income tax - net
(31)
(63)
(132)
(140)
Financing CF
117
417
(227)
(584)
Min. intrst & discnt oprat
(34)
(13)
(16)
(16)
Net - Cash flow
257
(299)
56
(127)
Net profit
(188)
185
182
194
Cash at beginning
207
463
165
220
Net profit margin (%)
(32.7)
30.8
20.8
20.9
Cash at ending
463
165
220
93
15A
16A
17E
18E
1
Balance Sheet
Net - Borrowings
0
0
Key Ratios
Yr-end Dec (US$ mn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Cash
463
165
220
93
ROE (%)
(27.0)
20.8
17.6
16.3
99
183
125
116
ROA (%)
(6.5)
5.1
4.9
5.6
Other Receivables
123
352
175
186
Revenue growth (%)
(23.4)
4.4
45.6
6.1
Others
360
435
429
162
EBITDA growth (%)
(13.3)
24.4
72.9
1.6
1,045
1,134
949
556
EPS growth (% )
na
na
(1.5)
6.7
92
28
33
48
Interest coverage (x)
1.4
1.4
2.2
2.9
Net oil & gas
999
921
1,197
1,372
Debt to equity (x)
2.3
2.2
1.8
1.3
Other assets
775
1,514
1,514
1,514
Net gearing (x)
1.6
2.0
1.6
1.2
Total assets
2,910
3,597
3,693
3,490
77
105
86
117
ST. debt and CMLTD
258
411
377
310
15A
16A
17E
18E
Other current liabilities
191
345
345
345
O&G sales vol. (mboe/d)
53.1
68.0
90.8
98.4
Current liabilities
527
861
807
772
Gold sales vol. ('000 toz)
625
798
420
270
1,322
1,522
1,520
1,192
Copper sales vol. (mn lbs)
460
477
310
313
360
324
324
324
54
45
55
58
2,208
2,707
2,651
2,287
1,061
1,148
1,200
1,250
5
3
8
14
Copper price (US$/lbs)
696
888
1,033
1,189
USD/IDR assmp. (avg)
Receivables
Total current assets Net fixed assets
Payables
LT. debt Other LT. liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Total equity
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
Yr-end Dec (US$ mn)
Major Assumptions
Oil price (US$/bbl) Gold price (US$/toz)
2.2 13,394
2.5 13,305
2.6 13,200
2.7 13,200
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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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