Company Update
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Bloomberg: HMSP.IJ | Reuters: HMSP.JK
Samuel Research
28 April 2017
Deserve premium valuation
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 4,390
Last Price
Rp 3,850
Potential Upside
14.0%
JCI Index
5,706
Share isued (bn)
116.32
Market Cap. (Rp tn)
447.82
52-Weeks High/Low
4,250 / 3,560
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
21.68
Free Float
7.5%
Nom inal Value
Rp 4
Book value/share ‘16
Rp 306
Relative to JCI Chart 110
JCI
HMSP
105 100 95
Tekanan industri rokok yang terus berlanjut tidak memberikan dampak negative pada pertumbuhan pendapatan dan laba HMSP di 1Q17. Pangsa pasar juga masih terjaga signifikan di semua kategori rokok (SPM, SKT dan SKM). Nilai premium saham HMSP menjadi sebuah hal yang wajar, mengingat kekuatan daya saing perusahaan di industri. Tetap BUY untuk HMSP dengan 12M DCF TP Rp4,390 (39.5xP/E17E, 13.5xPBV17E). Kinerja 1Q17 sejalan dengan proyeksi. Pendapatan tetap bertumbuh meskipun tipis +3%YoY, dengan kenaikan laba sebesar +5.5%YoY. EPS yang dilaporkan sebesar Rp28, sejalan dengan ekspektasi konsensus sebesar Rp28.6 atau sedikit lebih tinggi dari 1Q17E SSI sebesar Rp27.2. Tahun ini, potensi terjaganya pertumbuhan laba bersih masih akan didorong oleh kenaikan ASP sebesar Rp1,005 vs Rp904.7 di 1Q16. Volume penjualan yang tetap melemah. Sejak dua tahun lalu, kami telah melihat potensi pelemahan volume penjualan yang didorong oleh konsistensi kenaikan cukai dan kontinuitas kampanye anti rokok untuk menekan angka perokok nasional. Di 1Q17 volume penjualan industri rokok melemah sebesar -5.6%YoY menjadi 71miliar batang vs 75.2miliar batang di 1Q16. Sedangkan untuk HMSP sendiri volume penjualan mengalami pelemahan 6.9% menjadi 23.4miliar batang dari 25.1miliar batang.
90 85 80 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17
Com pany Background PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk memproduksi hand rolled (SKT) and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes (SKM). Distribusi produk dilakukan di dalam maupun luar negeri. Perusahaan memiliki pangsa produk SKM dan SKT yang tinggi.
Shareholder Structure Philip Morris Indonesia
Dominasi yang berlanjut. HMSP masih mendominasi persaingan industri hingga 1Q17 di semua segmen. SKT dan SKM masing-masing tercatat sebesar 37.7% dan 29.7%. Di sisi lain, meskipun tercatat turun untuk SPM, namun masih menguasai 76.5% dari pasar rokok putih. Untuk SKM kadar tar tinggi, HMSP membukukan kenaikan pangsa pasar yang sangat signifikan dari 6.9% di FY15, menjadi 9.8% di FY16 dan kembali naik menjadi 10.7% di 1Q17, sebagai akibat penerimaan pasar terhadap produk U Bold dan Marlboro Filter Black. Maintain (BUY). Tahun ini, tekanan volume panjualan kami perkirakan masih akan berlanjut, namun berpotensi masih tertutupi oleh kenaikan ASP. Adapun resiko investasi antara lain: (1) kontinuitas kenaikan cukai diatas angka inflasi tahunan (2) penerapan PPN pada seluruh rantai distribusi (3) kontinuitas aktifnya kampanye menekan angka perokok.
92.5%
Vontobel Holding
0.4%
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp3,860 per share)
Others
7.1%
Y/E Dec (Rpbn) Sales
15E 89,069
16E 95,467
17E 103,021
18E 107,568
EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp/saham) DPS (Rp)
14,396 10,363 89 2,745
16,795 12,762 110 66
17,729 12,933 111 73
18,289 13,382 115 81
2.8 275 31.8 44.1 14.3
1.7 294 27.1 35.8 13.4
1.8 324 25.6 35.3 12.1
2.1 355 24.8 34.2 11.1
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA +62 21 2854 8144
[email protected]
www.samuel.co.id
Dividend Yield (%) BV per share (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
Page 1 of 5
Hanjaya mandala Sampoerna HMSP:IJ |HMSP.JK
Figure 1. HMSP Quarterly result - 1Q17 Rpbn
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
QoQ
1Q16
1Q17
YoY
Sales
23,552
21,921
25,415
22,939
25,191
22,576
(10.4)
21,921
22,576
3.0
(17,534) (16,268) (19,507) (17,320) (18,517)
(16,769)
(9.4) (16,268) (16,769)
3.1
COGS Gross profit
6,017
5,653
5,908
5,619
6,674
5,807
(13.0)
5,653
5,807
2.7
(2,395)
(1,731)
(2,146)
(1,905)
(2,052)
(1,645)
(19.8)
(1,731)
(1,645)
(5.0)
Operating profit
3,622
3,922
3,762
3,714
4,622
4,162
(10.0)
3,922
4,162
6.1
Pre-tax profit
3,749
4,152
4,023
3,903
4,933
4,348
(11.9)
4,152
4,348
4.7
Income taxes
(983)
(1,033)
(994)
(970)
(1,252)
(1,057)
(15.6)
(1,033)
(1,057)
2.3
Core Profit
2,696
2,955
2,758
2,754
3,464
3,120
(9.9)
2,955
3,120
5.6
Net income (loss)
2,767
3,119
3,029
2,933
3,681
3,291
(10.6)
3,119
3,291
5.5
93
27
53
78
110
28
(74.2)
27
28
5.5
SG&A
EPS (Rp)
0 Margin Gross margin
25.6
25.8
23.2
24.5
26.5
25.7
(0.8)
25.8
25.7
(0.1)
Operating margin
15.4
17.9
14.8
16.2
18.3
18.4
0.1
17.9
18.4
0.5
Net margin
11.7
14.2
11.9
12.8
14.6
14.6
(0.0)
14.2
14.6
0.4
Apr-15
Apr-16
Source: Company, SSI research
Figure 2. HMSP P/E Band 50
40 30 20
10 Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-17
Average
ST dev +1
ST dev -1
PE - Forward
ST dev +2
ST dev -2
Source: Company, SSI research
www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 5
Hanjaya mandala Sampoerna HMSP:IJ |HMSP.JK
Figure 3. Industry and HMSP sales volume - 1Q17 Indonesia and PMI sales volume
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
Total industry (bn sticks)
75.2
83.6
72.3
80.5
PMI sales volume (bn sticks)
25.1
28.6
25.1
26.7
QoQ
YoY
71.0
-11.8%
-5.6%
23.4
-12.5%
-6.9%
PMI cigarette sales volume to total industry (bn sticks)
35.2%
Sampoerna A
10.8
11.9
10.4
11.3
9.9 -12.4%
-8.2%
Dji Sam Soe
5.0
5.5
4.8
5.2
4.5 -13.2%
-9.9%
U Mild
3.4
3.7
3.1
3.1
3.6
13.1%
4.9%
Others
6.1
7.5
6.8
7.2
5.5 -22.7%
-9.1%
25.2
28.6
25.1
26.7
23.4 -12.3%
-7.0%
Sampoerna A
14.3%
14.2%
14.4%
14.0%
13.9%
-0.1%
-0.4%
Dji Sam Soe
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.4%
6.3%
-0.1%
-0.3%
U Mild
4.5%
4.4%
4.3%
3.9%
5.0%
1.1%
0.5%
Others
8.1%
9.0%
9.4%
8.9%
7.8%
-1.1%
-0.3%
33.5%
34.2%
34.7%
33.2%
33.0%
-0.2%
-0.5%
Total Market share (%)
PMI - Total
Industry segment sales volume (bn sticks) Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT
14.1
15.0
12.4
14.7
12.9 -11.8%
-8.6%
Machine-Made Kretek - SKM
56.6
63.3
55.5
61.3
54.2 -11.7%
-4.2%
4.5
5.4
4.4
4.5
Total SKT, SKM and SPM
75.2
83.6
72.3
80.5
Industry segment M/S
-
-
-
Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT
18.8%
17.9%
17.2%
18.2%
18.2%
0.0%
-0.6%
Machine-Made Kretek - SKM
75.2%
75.7%
76.7%
76.2%
76.3%
0.1%
1.1%
6.0%
6.4%
6.1%
5.6%
5.5%
-0.1%
-0.5%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Whites Cigarette - SPM
Whites Cigarette - SPM Total SKT, SKM and SPM
3.9 -13.4% -13.5% 71.0 -11.8%
-5.6%
PMI share to industry segment (%) Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT
38.1%
38.2%
38.6%
37.8%
38.0%
0.2%
-0.1%
Machine-Made Kretek - SKM
28.5%
29.2%
30.2%
29.0%
28.6%
-0.4%
0.1%
Whites Cigarette - SPM
81.3%
81.1%
79.7%
76.3%
76.5%
0.2%
-4.8%
PMI share sales volume to industry segment sales volume (bn sticks) Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT Machine-Made Kretek - SKM Whites Cigarette - SPM Total SKT, SKM and SPM
5.4
5.7
4.8
5.5
4.9 -11.3%
-8.8%
16.1
18.5
16.8
17.8
15.5 -12.9%
-3.9%
3.7
4.3
3.5
3.4
25.2
28.5
25.1
26.8
3.0 -13.1% -18.6% 23.4 -12.6%
-7.1%
Source : Company, SSI Research
www.samuel.co.id
Page 3 of 5
Hanjaya mandala Sampoerna HMSP:IJ |HMSP.JK
Key financial figures Profit and Loss Statement Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Revenue
Cash Flow 15A
16A
17E
18E
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
10,363
12,762
12,933
13,382
89,069
95,467
103,021
107,568
Net Income
(67,305)
(71,612)
(77,325)
(80,904)
Dep. & Amort.
440
616
687
748
21,764
23,855
25,697
26,665
Chg Working Cap
216
(2,662)
(2,341)
(2,591)
Gross margin (%)
24.4
25.0
24.9
24.8
(10,206)
3,360
(3,601)
(3,523)
Operating profit
13,956
16,179
17,042
17,542
Operating CF
814
14,077
7,678
8,015
15.7
16.9
16.5
16.3
Capex
971
1,209
1,388
1,177
14,396
16,795
17,729
18,289
Investing CF
(4,537)
(362)
1,234
1,129
20,414
(19)
30
-
(15,037)
(10,358)
(8,302)
(9,325)
(8,272)
(9,325)
COGS Gross profit
Operating margin (%) EBITDA
Others
EBITDA margin (%)
16.2
17.6
17.2
17.0
Change in Capital
Other Income (Expenses)
(23)
832
301
408
Others
Pre-tax profit
13,933
17,011
17,343
17,949
Financing CF
5,377 (10,377)
Income tax - net
(3,569)
(4,249)
(4,410)
(4,568)
Net Cash Flow
1,653
3,337
639
(180)
Net profit
10,363
12,762
12,933
13,382
Cash Beginning
65
1,719
5,056
5,696
1,718
5,056
5,696
5,515
Yr-end Dec
15A
16A
17E
18E
Net profit margin (%)
11.6
13.4 11,876
12.6
12.4
-6.94% -100.00%
Profit and Loss Statement Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
Cash Ending
Key Ratios 15A
16A
17E
18E
Cash & ST Investment
1,719
5,056
5,696
5,515
ROE
32.4
37.3
34.3
32.4
Receivables
4,727
4,996
5,392
5,737
ROA
27.3
30.0
27.7
26.4
Inventories
19,072
19,442
21,765
24,985
Revenue Growth (%)
10.4
7.2
7.9
4.4
4,290
4,153
4,115
4,296
EBITDA (%)
1.8
16.7
5.6
3.2
29,807
33,647
36,967
40,533
EPS Growth (%)
1.8
23.1
1.3
3.5
Net fixed assets
6,887
7,481
8,182
8,611
Interest coverage (x)
100.8
724.7
208.9
189.6
Other assets
1,317
1,380
1,535
1,583
Debt to Equity (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total Assets
38,011
42,508
46,684
50,727
Net Gearing (%)
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
3,605
5,504
5,940
6,202
-
-
-
-
934
924
997
1,041
15A
16A
17E
18E
41
66
71
74
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.4
Other long term liabilities 1,415
1,839
1,985
2,072
USD/IDR (average)
13,500
13,253
13,200
12,800
Total Liabilities
5,995
8,333
8,993
9,390
Vol Sales (bn stick)
109.8
105.5
102.5
97.4
32,016
34,175
37,691
41,337
ASP (Rp)
810.9
904.7
1,005.4
1,103.9
Others Total Current Assets
Payables ST. debt & curr. Mat Other current liabilities LT. debt
Total Equity
www.samuel.co.id
Major Assumptions Yr-end Dec GDP growth (%)
Page 4 of 5
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
www.samuel.co.id
Page 5 of 5
