Company Update
Bank BNI Bloomberg: BBNI:IJ | Reuters: BBNI.JK
Samuel Research
02 Februari 2017
Still Optimistic
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 6,600
Last Price
Rp 5,950
Potential Upside
10.9%
JCI Index
5,340
Share Issued (m n)
18,649
Market Cap. (Rp bn)
110,959
52-Weeks High/Low
6,075/4,270
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
16.7
Free Float
40%
Nom inal Value
Rp 375 (Class C)
Book value/share ‘17
Rp 5,287
Relative to JCI Chart 40% BBNI
20%
Sejalan dengan pencapaian FY16 yang 7% di atas ekspektasi kami, situasi terkini, dan guidance dari manajemen BBNI, kami menaikkan TP menjadi Rp 6.600 (1,2x PBV 2017F). Pertumbuhan kredit BBNI tahun ini yang diperkirakan masih jauh melebihi industri dan biaya provisi NPL yang lebih kecil dari tahun lalu sejalan dengan meredanya tekanan pada kualitas aset kami lihat sebagai penopang kinerja di tahun ini. Tekanan pada kualitas aset melandai. NPL gross pada 4Q16 sebesar 3,0% (4Q15: 2,7%, 2Q16: 3,0%, 3Q16: 3,1%) dan terlihat lebih stabil. Hal yang sama ditunjukkan pula oleh data manajemen berupa ratio loan at risk to gross loan dan restructured loan to loan yang sudah lebih stabil. Pendapat kami adalah tekanan pada kualitas aset akan cenderung berkurang di tahun ini, sementara total kredit akan terus tumbuh, sehingga NPL secara persentase akan flat cenderung turun, dimana manajemen menargetkan NPL <3% tahun ini. Sementara itu, coverage ratio direncanakan naik secara bertahap.
JCI 0% Dec-14 -20%
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
-40%
Com pany Background PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk pada aw alnya didirikan sebagai bank sentral pada tahun 1946. Di tahun 1968, bank ini menjadi bank komersial. Sekarang Bank BNI (BBNI) merupakan salah satu bank terbesar di Indonesia.
Ekspansi agresif dengan tetap berfokus pada kualitas aset. Kami melihat permintaan kredit infrastruktur masih akan tinggi di tahun ini sepanjang proyek pemerintah terus berjalan. Kredit infrastruktur naik 30,3% pada FY16. Selain kredit ke SoE, pertumbuhan kredit 2016 ditopang oleh segmen korporasi, small, dan medium yang masing-masing memiliki NPL relatif tinggi. Kami menilai positif langkah manajemen untuk agak menahan kredit di business banking tersebut demi menjaga kualitas aset secara keseluruhan.
Govt of Indonesia
Tetap optimis dengan pertumbuhan di tahun ini. Kami memperkirakan pertumbuhan kredit 18-20% di tahun ini sejalan dengan guidance manajemen, dengan NIM yang agak turun seiring berlanjutnya tren penurunan suku bunga kredit sesuai arahan BI dan kemungkinan naiknya suku bunga acuan BI. Fee-based income dan opex diperkirakan naik 18-21% 60.0% dan 14-16% sesuai perkiraan manajemen.
Public
40.0%
Shareholder Structure
Maintain Buy and upgrade TP. Setelah merevisi forecast sejalan dengan situasi terkini, kinerja FY16 yang 7% di atas ekspektasi kami, serta guidance manajemen, kami mempertahankan rekomendasi Buy dengan target price dinaikkan menjadi Rp 6,600 (1,2x PBV 2017F). Andy Ferdinand, CFA +62 21 2854 8148
[email protected]
www.samuel.co.id
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp5,950 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) Net Interest Income Pre Provision Profit Net Profit EPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%) BV per Share (Rp) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
15A 25,559 18,748 9,066 486 145 2.4 4,098 12.2 1.5
16A 29,994 22,082 11,339 608 122 2.0 4,674 9.8 1.3
17E 33,159 23,850 14,277 766 152 2.6 5,287 7.8 1.1
18E 36,726 25,818 15,943 855 191 3.2 5,951 7.0 1.0
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Bank BNI BBNI:IJ | BBNI.JK Figure 1. FY16 Result (Reported figures) Rpbn
4Q15
3Q16
4Q16
Net Interest Income
6,537
7,963 8,121
Operating Profit
3,868
4,223 4,503
Pre Provision Profit
4,801
6,101 5,746
Net Profit
3,069
3,346 3,622
FY16
YoY
FY16E
% to FY16E
2.0% 24.2% 25,560
29,995
17.4% 27,888
108%
6.6% 16.4% 11,412
14,229
24.7% 13,314
107%
-5.8% 19.7% 18,748
22,082
17.8% 19,744
112%
11,339
25.1% 10,590
107%
QoQ
YoY
FY15
8.2% 18.0%
9,067
Bank Only: NIM
6.4%
6.2%
BOPO
75.5%
73.6%
LDR
87.8%
90.4%
2.7%
3.0%
Gross NPL Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 2. Loan Composition
FY15
FY16
Corporate
80,238
95,753
19.3%
24.3%
SOE
57,671
78,319
35.8%
19.9%
Medium
51,147
61,330
19.9%
15.6%
Small
42,076
50,684
20.5%
12.9%
231,133
286,087
23.8%
72.7%
34,664
36,396
5.0%
9.3%
9,789
10,527
7.5%
2.7%
3,923 9,164 57,540 19,538 17,896 326,105
8,949 9,197 65,069 21,237 20,882 393,275
128.1% 0.4% 13.1% 8.7% 16.7% 20.6%
2.3% 2.3% 16.5% 5.4% 5.3% 100.0%
Growth
Composition
Rpbn
Growth
Composition
Business Banking
Subtotal Consumer Banking Mortgage Credit Card Payroll Others Subtotal Overseas Subsidiaries TOTAL
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 3. Deposit Composition
Rpbn Time Deposit Saving Account Current Account TOTAL
FY15
FY16
144,161 135,065 91,194 370,421
154,230 158,662 122,652 435,545
7.0% 17.5% 34.5% 17.6%
35.4% 36.4% 28.2% 100.0%
Source: Company, SSI Research
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Page 2 of 5
Bank BNI BBNI:IJ | BBNI.JK Figure 4. NPL, Gross by Segment (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2014
2015 1Q16 2Q16 Corporate Consumer
3Q16 Medium
Small
Overseas
Overall
4Q16
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 5. Asset Quality Ratios (%) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2014 2015 1Q16 Loan at Risk to Gross Loan
2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Restructured to Loan
Gross NPL Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 6. Rolling Forward PBV 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
0.5 Jan-11 Jan-12
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Average ST dev -1 ST dev +2
Jan-17
ST dev +1 PBV - Forward ST dev -2
Source: SSI Research
www.samuel.co.id
Page 3 of 5
Bank BNI BBNI:IJ | BBNI.JK Key Financials Profit and Loss (Rp bn)
Key Ratio (m ay differ slightly from reported figures)
15A
16A
17F
18F
15A
16A
17F
18F
6.5%
6.3%
5.9%
5.7%
Net Interest Income
25,559
29,994
33,159
36,726
Profitability
Operating Profit
11,412
14,229
17,952
20,045
NIM
Pre Provision Profit
18,748
22,082
23,850
25,818
ROAE
13.4%
13.9%
15.4%
15.2%
Profit before Tax
11,466
14,302
18,025
20,118
ROAA
2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
2.1%
9,066
11,339
14,277
15,943
CIR
50.3%
51.5%
52.9%
54.3%
BOPO
76.7%
76.0%
73.4%
73.7%
LDR
88.0%
90.3%
90.4%
90.7%
CASA Ratio
61.1%
64.6%
65.7%
65.9%
Net Profit
Liquidity Balance Sheet Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16A
17F
18F
Cash
12,890
11,168
13,565
13,238
CA and Placement
73,349
70,108
80,197
91,356
Asset Quality
9,928
23,765
26,144
28,757
Gross NPL
2.7%
3.0%
2.9%
2.7%
NPL Coverage
138%
143%
147%
150%
Capital CAR
20.0%
18.9%
17.4%
16.4%
Growth Rate Gross Loan
17.5%
20.6%
19.0%
19.0%
Marketable Securities Gross Loan
326,105 393,275 467,997 556,917
Loan Provision
(12,039) (16,680) (19,884) (22,937)
Government Bonds
47,222
63,006
69,307
76,237
Other Assets
51,140
58,390
66,279
76,882
Total Assets
508,595 603,032 703,606 820,451
Deposits
370,420 435,544 517,754 614,354
Current Account
91,194 122,652 148,409 176,607
Saving Account
135,065 158,662 191,981 228,457
Deposits
18.0%
17.6%
18.9%
18.7%
Time Deposit
144,161 154,230 177,365 209,290
Net Interest Income
12.3%
17.4%
10.6%
10.8%
Deposits from Other Banks 4,697
10,224
10,735
11,272
Operating Income
-14.5%
24.7%
26.2%
11.7%
Borrowings
22,524
32,965
34,613
36,344
Net Profit
-15.9%
25.1%
25.9%
11.7%
6,871
6,731
6,933
7,141
25,645
28,314
32,770
38,057
4.7%
5.1%
5.2%
5.4%
4.8%
4.8%
5.3%
13,253
13,200
12,800
Securities Issued Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Minority Interest Total Equity
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430,157 513,778 602,806 707,168 2,024
2,097
76,413
87,156
2,202
2,312
98,598 110,971
Macro GDP Growth BI RR Rate USD/IDR, average
13,500
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Adde Chandra Kurniawan
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
www.samuel.co.id
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