Company Update
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Bloomberg: RALS.IJ | Reuters: RALS.JK
Samuel Equity Research
3 May 2016
Still Sluggish
HOLD (Maintain)
RALS telah mengeluarkan laporan keuangan 1Q16, dan pada periode ini, kinerja secara keseluruhan tercatat kurang memuaskan, dengan penjualan hanya tercatat Rp1.09 triliun (1Q15: Rp1.12 triliun) dan laba bersih juga hanya tercatat sebesar Rp9.0 miliar, di bawah eskpektasi kami dan konsensus, meskipun angka tersebut naik dari periode yang sama tahun lalu (1Q15: Rp5.5 miliar). Kami melihat, daya beli masyarakat terutama di luar pulau Jawa yang belum sepenuhnya pulih menjadi penyebab utama belum membaiknya kinerja RALS. Dengan strategi yang kurang ekspansif dan ekonomi Indonesia yang belum menunjukkan tanda-tanda perbaikan secara signifikan, kami mengurangi target rata – rata pertumbuhan penjualan untuk ‘16E menjadi 3.5%YoY (perkiraan sebelumnya: 4.5%YoY). Tetap HOLD untuk RALS dengan TP Rp700/lembar saham.
Target Price
Rp 700
Last Price
Rp 690
Potential Upside
1%
JCI Index
4,812
Share isued (bn)
7.10
Market Cap. (Rp tn)
4.90
52-Weeks High/Low
490/845
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
0.00
Free Float
42.4%
Nom inal Value
Rp 100
Book value/share ‘16
Rp496
Kinerja 1Q16 di bawah estimasi. Untuk 1Q16 ini, RALS mengalami penurunan penjualan bersih sebesar 3%YoY (1Q16: Rp1.09 triliun vs 1Q15: Rp1.12 triliun). Capaian tersebut relatif in-line, meskipun hanya mencapai 18.9% dan 19.2% dari estimasi kami dan konsensus untuk total penjualan ‘16E, karena secara historis, pada umumnya penjualan bersih pada kuartal pertama hanya mampu mencapai ±18% dari total proyeksi penjualan untuk setahun. Sementara itu, laba bersih berada di bawah estimasi kami dan konsensus (hanya 2.7% terhadap total proyeksi laba bersih ‘16E), meskipun strategi perusahaan untuk memperbesar porsi barang konsinyasi berhasil meningkatkan gross profit margin dan net profit margin sebesar 440 bps dan 30bps. Dengan strategi perusahaan yang tetap konservatif dan daya beli masyarakat yang belum sepenuhnya pulih, untuk tahun ini kami mengurangi target pertumbuhan penjualan menjadi 3.5%YoY (proyeksi sebelumnya: 4.5%YoY), sementara kami memprediksi SSSG hanya akan berkisar 0.6% pada ‘16E.
Relative to JCI Chart
Masih mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD. All in all, kami menilai kinerja fundamental RALS masih belum dapat menunjukkan perbaikan yang signifikan terutama untuk tahun ini, jika dilihat dari segi: 1). Kurang agresifnya pembukaan toko baru, 2). Konversi bisnis supermarket ke bawah naungan SPAR yang membutuhkan jangka waktu yang panjang agar dapat memberikan dampak positif 3). Masih rendahnya harga komoditas di Pulau Jawa, 4). Capaian kinerja perusahaan yang kurang memuaskan sampai 1Q16. HOLD (TP: Rp700/lembar saham, 16E’PE: 13.8x, PBV: 1.4x).
Ramayana Makmursentosa
160
JCI
RALS
140
120 100 80 Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Com pany Background PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa is an Indonesianbased retail chain operator catering the needs of low er to low er-middle market. The company operates more than 100 stores know n as Ramayana, Robinson and Cahaya. Shareholder Structure 55.9%
Paulus Tumew u
3.7%
Public
40.5%
Marlene Tanumihardja +62 21 2854 8387
[email protected]
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp690 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) Revenue EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%) BV per Share (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
14A 5,861 490 355 50 30 4.3 473 7.3 13.8 1.5
15E 5,533 367 335 47 27 3.9 470 9.2 14.6 1.5
16E 5,729 387 361 51 24 3.4 496 9.2 13.6 1.4
17E 6,025 413 387 55 25 3.7 525 7.8 12.6 1.3
Page 1 of 6 Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report.
Tuesday, 03 May 2016
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS.IJ / RALS.JK
Figure 1. SSSG Performance (YTD March’16) 15.0%
12.2%
10.0% 5.5%
3.6% 1.8%
5.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.0% Jan'16
Feb'16 -1.9%
-5.0%
March'16
-3.0%-2.8%
-4.1%
-5.1% -6.6%
-10.0% National
Greater Jakarta
Rest of Java
Outer Java
Source: Company
Figure 2. Product Mix Breakdown (By Sales) 102% 100% 98%
96% 94%
8%
92% 90%
12%
88% 86% 84%
88%
92%
1Q16
1Q15
82%
Outright
Consignment
Source: Company
Figure 3. Store Expansions 140
8% 7%
120
6% 5%
No. of Stores
100
4% 80
3% 2%
60
1% 40
0% -1%
20
-2% 0
-3%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Stores
2014
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F % stores growth (RHS)
Source: Company, SSI estimates www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 6
Tuesday, 03 May 2016
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS.IJ / RALS.JK
Figure 4. Quarterly Performance (in Rp bn)
4Q15
1Q16
QoQ
1Q16
1Q15
YoY
1Q16/'16E
1Q16/'16Cons
18.9%
19.2%
19.1%
18.9%
-6.3%
-5.3%
2.7%
2.7%
Sales
1,267
1,086
-14.3%
1,086
1,120
-3.0%
COGS
840
692
-17.6%
692
763
-9.3%
Gross Profit
427
394
-7.7%
394
357
10.4%
(415)
(410)
-1.2%
(410)
(390)
5.1%
Selling Expense
(102)
(88)
-13.7%
(88)
(84)
4.8%
G&A Expense
(313)
(322)
2.9%
(322)
(306)
5.2%
Operating Profit
12
(16)
N/A
(16)
(33)
-51.5%
13
21
52.4%
21
37
-43.8%
25
5
-82.3%
5
4
28.6%
7
4
-46.2%
4
2
200.0%
33
9
-74.2%
9
5.5
54.5%
Total Operating Expense
Non-Operating Income (expense) Pre-tax Incom e Tax Net Incom e EPS Profitability Gross margin
33.7%
36.3%
-2.6%
36.3%
31.9%
4.4%
Operating margin
0.9%
-1.5%
2.4%
-1.5%
-2.9%
1.5%
Pre-tax margin
2.0%
0.4%
1.6%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Net margin
2.6%
0.8%
1.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
Source: Company, SSI estimates
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Page 3 of 6
Tuesday, 03 May 2016
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS.IJ / RALS.JK
Key Financials Profit and Loss Rp bn
Cash Flow 14A
15A
16E
17E
5,861
5,533
5,728
5,988
(3,813)
(3,537)
(3,649)
(3,803)
2,048
1,996
2,079
2,186
Gross margin (%)
34.9
36.1
36.3
36.5
Working capital
Operating profit
294
234
249
267
Operating cash flow
5.0
4.2
4.3
4.5
490
367
386
411
Revenue COGS Gross profit
Operating margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%)
8.4
Other income (expenses)
95
Pre-tax profit
388
364
416
Income tax - net
(33)
(29)
Net profit
355
335
6.1
6.1
Net profit margin (%)
6.6 130
6.7 167
6.9 166
Cash & ST Investment Receivables Inventories Others
14A
15A
Net income
355
335
355
369
Depreciation & amort.
197
133
137
144
0
0
0
1
63
32
615
499
Others
Net - Capital expenditure Investing cash flow Net - Borrowings
16E
(203)
17E
(73)
289
441
(127)
(90)
(332)
(277)
(53)
(17)
(260)
(291)
0
0
0
0
Other financing
(183)
(315)
(133)
(138)
433
Financing cash flow
(183)
(315)
(133)
(138)
(61)
(63)
Net - Cash flow
379
175
355
369
Cash at beginning
1,273
1,653
1,828
1,716
6.2
6.2
Cash at ending
1,652
1,828
1,716
1,727
Balance Sheet Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
(112)
11
Key Ratios 14A
15A
16E
17E
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
14A
15A
16E
17E
1,653
1,828
1,716
23
35
45
1,727
ROE (%)
11.6
10.7
9.5
9.6
55
ROA (%)
7.8
7.3
7.3
7.3
809
824
1,081
1,130
Revenue growth (%)
-26.4
-5.6
3.5
4.5
EBITDA growth (%)
-14.9
-25.2
5.2
6.4
-9.1
-5.7
5.9
4.1
210
145
156
160
Total current assets
2,695
2,832
2,998
3,072
EPS growth (%)
Net fixed assets
1,375
1,333
1,527
1,661
Interest coverage (x)
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Debt to equity (%)
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Net gearing (%)
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
14A
15A
16E
17E
SSSG (%)
-1.5
-2.8
0.6
1.7
Store area ('000 sqm)
Other assets
485
411
339
353
Total assets
4,555
4,576
4,865
5,086
889
900
960
951
Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity Other current liabilities LT. debt Other long term liabilities
0
0
0
0
79
61
75
75
0
0
0
0
Major Assumptions
228
280
315
354
989
994
1,023
1,052
Total liabilities
1,195
1,241
1,350
1,380
Inventory days
79
83
68
68
Total equity
3,359
3,334
3,514
3,706
Inflation Rate (%)
8.3
3.0
4.5
5.5
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DISCLAIMERS Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
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