Company Update
Nippon Indosari Corpindo Bloomberg: ROTI.IJ | Reuters: ROTI.JK
Samuel Equity Research
31 March 2016
Still Expecting Further Growth ROTI mencatatkan kinerja yang solid pada FY15, dengan laba bersih tumbuh sebesar 43.4%YoY dan mencapai Rp271 miliar (FY14: Rp189 miliar), relatif in-line dengan estimasi kami dan konsensus. Pada level top-line, ROTI berhasil membukukan penjualan bersih sebesar Rp2,2 triliun (FY14:Rp 1.9 triliun), di mana pertumbuhan penjualan tersebut mayoritas ditopang oleh peningkatan volume. Hal tersebut membuktikan bahwa di tengah tren melemahnya daya beli masyarakat secara keseluruhan, permintaan terhadap produk ROTI tetap kuat, sehingga kami berpendapat bahwa bisnis ROTI ke depannya akan tetap resilient, meskipun di tengah lesunya perekonomian Indonesia. Dengan didukung perbaikan sistem distribusi dan lebih luasnya cakupan pasar pasca ekspansi ke Filipina, kami tetap optimis terhadap kinerja ROTI untuk tahun ini dan mempertahankan BUY, dengan TP Rp1,500 /lembar saham, 16E’PE: 27.6x, PBV: 5.3x) Kinerja FY15 sesuai ekspektasi. ROTI mencatatkan pertumbuhan laba bersih 43.3%YoY (FY15: Rp271 miliar vs FY14: Rp189 miliar), relatif in-line dengan estimasi kami dan konsensus. Selain didorong oleh kenaikan penjualan, pertumbuhan laba bersih tersebut didorong oleh naiknya laba operasional seiring dengan peningkatan efisiensi oleh perusahaan serta naiknya laba kotor, mengikuti turunnya harga bahan baku. Mengacu pada harga gandum yang sudah turun 36% sejak tahun 2014, menguatnya nilai Rupiah, rendahnya harga minyak, turunnya harga listrik, pada ‘16E kami percaya diri untuk mempertahankan gross profit margin di kisaran 53%. Perluasan pasar dan perbaikan sistem distribusi. ROTI telah bekerja sama dengan Monde Nissin Corporation untuk memproduksi roti di Filipina dengan nilai investasi 6.8 juta dolar AS. Kami menilai, ROTI dapat berhasil memperluas cakupan pasarnya, karena Filipina memiliki banyak kemiripan dengan Indonesia, terutama dari segi demografi kependudukan serta pola konsumsi makanan. Selain itu, ROTI juga terus berupaya meningkatkan kinerja sistem distribusinya, dengan menargetkan kenaikan kontribusi dari General Trade (‘16E: 30% vs FY15: 24%). Dalam mewujudkan peningkatan kontribusi tersebut,ROTI mengangkat Head of Sales yang khusus menangani penjualan melalui General Trade. Dengan konsentrasi yang lebih spesifik ini, kami menilai, manajemen dapat lebih handal dalam menangani profil pembeli yang berbeda dan sales return dapat ditekan (‘16E: 12% vs FY15: 13%). All in all, dengan didukung oleh lebih luasnya pasar, meningkatnya permintaan terhadap produk – produk ROTI seiring membaiknya daya beli masyarakat, serta tingkat penetrasi yang lebih baik seiring digunakannya aplikasi untuk sistem distribusi, kami optimis pertumbuhan penjualan dapat mencapai 20%YoY pada ‘16E. Valuasi dan rekomendasi. Didukung oleh katalis positif di atas, kuatnya ekuitas merek, dan economies of scale yang dimiliki, kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dengan TP Rp1,500/lembar saham.
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 1,500
Last Price
Rp 1,290
Potential Upside
16.3%
JCI Index
4,845
Share isued (bn)
5.06
Market Cap. (Rp tn)
6.48
52-Weeks High/Low
1420/1020
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
4.26
Free Float
42.4%
Nom inal Value
Rp 200
Book value/share ‘16
Rp281
Relative to JCI Chart 140 JCI
ROTI
120 100
80 60 Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Com pany Background PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk is the largest bread producer in Indonesia. The company markets its products under the brand name “Sari Roti” and controls 90% market share in Indonesia’s mass production bread segment.
Shareholder Structure Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk
31.50%
Bonlight Investments Ltd
25.12%
Pasco Shikisima Corporation
8.50%
Sojitz Corporation
4.25%
Public
30.62%
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp1,290 per share) Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Revenue EBITDA Net Prof it EPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%) BV per Share (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
14A 1,880 397 189 37 3 0.2 190 18.0 34.6 6.8
15E 2,174 564 275 53 6 0.4 235 12.3 24.1 5.5
16E 2,608 600 275 54 8 0.6 281 12.0 23.7 4.6
Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report.
17E 3,257 794 409 81 14 1.1 348 9.2 16.0 3.7
Marlene Tanumihardja +62 21 2854 8387
[email protected]
Page 1 of 6
Thursday, 31 March 2016
Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI.IJ / ROTI.JK
Figure 1. ROTI – Result Performances and Comparisons (in Rp bn)
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
QoQ
YoY
FY14 1,880
Sales
519
530
605
114.2%
16%
COGS
(250)
(250)
(280)
112.2%
12%
Gross Profit Total Operating Expense Selling Expense
FY15
YoY
FY15 vs SSI
FY15 vs Cons
100%
100%
100%
103%
106%
119%
104%
105%
2174
16%
(979)
(1020)
4%
270
280
326
116.3%
21%
901
1155
28%
(173)
(174)
(176)
101.3%
2%
(603)
(700)
16%
(137)
(129)
(136)
105.4%
0%
(483)
(544)
13%
(44)
(56)
(48)
85.8%
10%
(156)
(194)
24%
8
11
8
72.1%
4%
36
38
97
106
150
140.9%
54%
299
455
52%
(15)
154
-1049.7%
-845%
(46)
105
-329%
G&A Expense Other Operating Income (Expense) Operating Profit Non-Operating Income (expense)
(21)
Pre-tax Income Tax Net Income
76
91
122
133.7%
61%
(19)
(23)
(44)
191.4%
127%
57
69
79
114.5%
38%
253
5%
378
50%
(108)
68%
189
271
43%
(64)
Profitability Gross margin
51.9%
53%
54%
1.0%
2.0%
47.9%
53.1%
5.2%
Operating margin
18.6%
20%
25%
4.7%
6.1%
15.9%
20.9%
5.0%
Pre-tax margin
14.7%
17%
20%
3.0%
5.5%
13.4%
17.4%
4.0%
Net margin
11.0%
13%
13%
0.0%
2.0%
10.0%
12.4%
2.4%
Source: Company, SSI estimates
Figure 2. ROTI – General vs Modern Trade Distribution Coverage 76%
80%
70%
70% 60% 50% 40%
30%
30%
24%
20% 10% 0%
2015
2016F
General Trade
Modern Trade
Source: Company, SSI estimates
Figure 3. ROTI’s PE Band 55 44.6
45
36.7 35 28.8 25
21.0
15
5 Jan-11
13.1
Aug-11
Mar-12
Oct-12
May-13
Dec-13
Jul-14
Feb-15
Sep-15
Average
ST dev +1
ST dev -1
PER - Roll
ST dev -2
ST dev +2
Source: Bloomberg, SSI estimates www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 6
Thursday, 31 March 2016
Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI.IJ / ROTI.JK
Figure 4. Wheat Price 750 700
650 600
550 500 450
400 Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Source: Company, SSI Estimates
Figure 5. Historical Recommendation Date
Recommendation
Closing Price
Target
1-Feb-16
BUY
1,305
1,500
Year Book’16 28-Apr-15
BUY BUY
1,215 1,105
1,415 1,435
18-Feb-15
BUY
1,210
1,435
28-Nov-14
BUY
1,210
1,490
29-Oct-14
BUY
1,225
1,490
22-Oct-14
BUY
1,190
1,490
Source: Company, SSI Estimates
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Page 3 of 6
Thursday, 31 March 2016
Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI.IJ / ROTI.JK
Key Financials Profit and Loss Statement Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Revenue COGS
Cash Flow 14A 1,880 979
15A 2,174 1,019
16E 2,608 1,237
17E 3,257 1,533
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
14A
15A
Net Income
189
271
276
368
93
107
143
170
0
0
0
0
(55)
96
Depreciation & Ammort.
Gross profit
901
1,155
1,372
1,724
Others
Gross margin (%)
47.9
53.1
52.6
52.9
Working capital
16E
(104)
17E
(5)
Operating profit
299
454
469
622
Operating Cash Flow
226
460
315
533
Operating margin (%)
15.9
20.9
18.0
19.1
Net - Capital expenditure
(598)
(249)
(760)
(556)
EBITDA
397
564
613
794
Investing Cash Flow
(357)
(278)
(793)
(582)
EBITDA margin (%)
21.1
26.0
23.5
24.4
Net - Borrowings
179
159
446
100
Other Income (Expenses)
(46)
(72)
(88)
(132)
(76)
(47)
Pre-tax profit
253
378
381
490
Income tax - net
64
Net profit
189
271
276
368
Net profit margin (%)
10.0
12.5
10.6
11.3
107
105
123
Balance Sheet
Other financing
13
12
192
171
370
53
61
353
(107)
4
Cash at beginning
101
163
515
408
Cash at ending
163
515
408
412
Financing Cash Flow Net - Cash flow
Key Ratios
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
14A
15A
16E
17E
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
14A
15A
16E
17E
Cash & ST Investment
163
515
408
412
ROE
20%
23%
19%
21%
Receivables
213
249
275
343
ROA
9%
10%
8%
10%
41
43
49
61
Revenue Growth (%)
25
16
20
25
4
6
49
62
EBITDA Growth (%)
34
42
9
29
EPS Growth (%)
19
44
2
33
7
6
5
5
Debt to Equity (%)
87
84
101
89
Net Gearing (%)
70
40
72
65
14A
15A
16E
17E
8.4
3.0
4.5
5.5
8.6
20.0
21.9
Inventories Others Total Current Assets
420
813
781
877
1,680
1,822
2,438
2,824
Other assets
43
72
104
130
Total Assets
2,143
2,706
3,324
3,832
126
159
180
223
48
0
440
1,040
Other current liabilities
134
236
186
231
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
LT. debt
788
994
1,000
500
Inflation rate (%)
87
127
92
114
Sales volume growth (%)
13.7
1,183
1,517
1,899
2,109
ASP growth (%)
10.6
7.0
0.0
3.0
960
1,189
1,425
1,723
Sales return (%)
12.5
12.5
12.0
12.0
Net fixed assets
Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity
Other long term liabilities Total Liabilities Total Equity
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Interest Coverage (x)
Major Assumptions
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DISCLAIMERS Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
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