Company Update
Nippon Indosari Corpindo Bloomberg: ROTI.IJ | Reuters: ROTI.JK
Samuel Research
02 Maret 2017
Still Baking the Buns
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 2,050
Last Price
Rp 1,565
Potential Upside
31.0%
JCI Index
5,363
Share isued (bn)
5.06
Market Cap. (Rp tn)
7.92
52-Weeks High/Low
1065/1770
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
1.06
Free Float
30.6%
Nom inal Value
Rp 20
Book value/share ‘17
Rp337
Relative to JCI Chart 120 JCI
ROTI
100
80 Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Com pany Background PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk merupakan produsen roti terbesar di Indonesia, dan memasarkan produknya dengan merek 'Sari Roti.
Shareholder Structure Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk
31.50%
Bonlight Investments Ltd
25.12%
Shikisima Corporation Sojitz Corporation Public
8.50% 4.25% 30.63%
Marlene Tanumihardja +62 21 2854 8387
[email protected]
Di tengah kondisi ekonomi dan daya beli yang lemah pada tahun lalu, ROTI berhasil mencatatkan kinerja keuangan yang memuaskan. Aksi boikot yang terjadi pada bulan – bulan menjelang akhir tahun lalu tidak mempengaruhi kinerja bottom line perusahaan. Dengan beberapa katalis positif antara lain: kenaikan ASP, lebih mengoptimalkan cakupan distribusi baik GT dan MT, serta asumsi stabilnya input cost, kami masih memberikan pandangan positif untuk ROTI. BUY. Kinerja topline dan bottom line di atas estimasi. Perusahaan baru saja mengeluarkan kinerja unaudited FY16, meskipun laporan keuangan secara detail belum dirilis. Topline tumbuh 16%YoY, mengalahkan industri yang hanya berhasil tumbuh 8.5%YoY (Gapmmi, AC Nielsen), meskipun hanya didorong oleh pertumbuhan volume, yang mengindikasikan bahwa permintaan produk tetap kuat di tengah daya beli masyarakat yang lemah. Walaupun terjadi aksi boikot, perusahaan masih mampu mencapai pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar 6%QoQ pada 4Q16 (lihat tabel 1). Capaian tersebut mendorong bottomline untuk tumbuh 3%QoQ dan 4%YoY (inline dengan estimasi kami). .... optimalisasi penggunaan GT dan MT. Pada tahun ini, kami menilai manajemen lebih agresif dan serius dalam meningkatkan penggunaan GT dan MT, sehingga memperbesar distributional coverage produk ke tangan konsumen. Pada sistem GT, manajemen berencana menambah kehadiran ‘Mbak Sari’ (yang sudah hadir sejak akhir tahun lalu). Selain itu, manajemen juga fokus untuk menghadirkan ‘Hubs Office’ (berfungsi seperti Distribution Centre) di Batam dan Kalimantan, yang rencananya beroperasi pada bulan Maret ini. Untuk sistem MT, manajemen juga telah menambah distribusi pada 3 Hypermart yang baru (Bale Kota Tangerang, Pondok Gede, dan Pacific Mall Tegal), serta berencana untuk memasuki Smart Club dan Minang Mart. Rencana kenaikan ASP. Setelah absennya kenaikan ASP pada dua tahun belakangan ini, manajemen berencana untuk menaikkan ASP di kisaran 5% -10%. Kami yakin kenaikan ASP tidak membuat ROTI kehilangan momentum kenaikan volume, karena secara historis, para pesaing cenderung memiliki tendensi untuk menaikkan harga jual setelah kenaikan harga dilakukan oleh ROTI. Overall, kami menargetkan pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar 20%YoY untuk FY17F. Kembali merekomendasikan BUY. Asumsi kami juga tidak terlepas dari : stabilnya harga bahan baku dan keadaan ekonomi Indonesia (TP: Rp 2,050/lembar saham). Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp1,565 per share) Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E Revenue 2,174 2,522 3,030 EBITDA 564 557 752 Net Profit 271 228 347 EPS (Rp) 53 56 69 DPS (Rp) 5.5 8.0 13.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.9 BV per Share (Rp) 235 282 337 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.2 15.9 11.6 P/E Ratio (x) 29.3 28.2 22.8 P/BV Ratio (x) 6.7 5.5 4.6
www.samuel.co.id
18E 3,546 849 409 81 17.2 1.1 401 10.3 19.3 3.9
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Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI:IJ | ROTI.JK Figure 1. Indicative FY16 Result (in Rp bn)
4Q15
3Q16
4Q16
Sales
605
644
685
6%
COGS
(279)
(311)
(334)
326
333
351
(216)
(214)
(296)
110
119
55
Gross Profit Operating Expenses * Operating Profit Net Income
QoQ
YoY
FY15
FY16
YoY
13%
2,174
2,522
16%
7%
20%
(1,019)
(1,221)
20%
5%
8%
1,155
1,301
13%
39%
37%
(739)
(920)
25%
-54%
-50%
416
381
271
281
FY16F
FY16/SSI FY16F
2,608
97%
1,596
82%
-8%
443
86%
4%
241
117%
80
75
77
3%
-3%
Gross margin
53.9%
51.7%
51.3%
-0.4%
-2.6%
53.1%
51.6%
-1.5%
Operating margin *
18.2%
18.5%
8.0%
-10.5%
-10.2%
19.1%
15.1%
-4.0%
Profitability
Net margin 13.1% 11.6% 11.2% -0.4% -1.9% 12.5% 11.1% -1.3% Source: Company,Bloomberg, SSI Research *). Dibukanya kembali satu pabrik Sari Roti pada akhir 2016 setelah ditutup pada tahun 2015, sehingga biaya operasional (i.e. Depresiasi dan Upah Buruh) naik dan marjin operasional turun.
Figure 2. Distribution System Comparison 76%
80%
74%
70% 60% 50% General Trade
40% 30%
24%
26%
Modern Trade
20% 10% 0%
2016
2017
Source: Company
www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 5
Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI:IJ | ROTI.JK
Figure 3. Margin Performances 100% 90% 80%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
20% 10% 0% 2011
2012
Gross Margin
2013
2014
2015
Operating Margin
2016F
2017F
Net Margin
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 4. Two Recent Product Launches (Among the targeted 45 new SKUs)
Source: Company Website
www.samuel.co.id
Page 3 of 5
Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI:IJ | ROTI.JK
Profit and Loss Statement Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Revenue COGS Gross profit
Cash Flow 15A
16E
17E
18E
2,174
2,522
3,030
3,546
(1,019) (1,221) (1,453) (1,699)
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16E
17E
18E
Net Income
271
281
350
424
Depreciation & Ammort.
107
119
139
163
0
0
0
0
96
(93)
(8)
(1)
460
308
480
586
1,155
1,301
1,577
1,847
Gross margin (%)
53.1
51.6
52.0
52.1
Working capital
Operating profit
416
383
531
595
Operating Cash Flow
Operating margin (%)
19.2
15.2
17.5
16.8
Net - Capital expenditure
(249)
(260)
(398)
(505)
EBITDA
564
529
763
864
Investing Cash Flow
(278)
(288)
(418)
(526)
EBITDA margin (%)
26.0
21.0
25.2
24.4
Net - Borrowings
159
446
100
0
Other Income (Expenses)
(72)
(101)
(126)
(136)
12
(75)
(54)
(69)
Pre-tax profit
378
298
466
565
Financing Cash Flow
171
370
46
(69)
Net - Cash flow
353
390
107
(9)
Income tax - net
107
82
117
141
Others
Other financing
Net profit
271
281
350
424
Cash at beginning
163
515
905
1,012
Net profit margin (%)
12.5
11.1
11.5
12.0
Cash at ending
515
905
1,012
1,003
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16E
17E
18E
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16E
17E
18E
Cash & ST Investment
515
905
1,012
1,003
ROE
23%
15%
20%
21%
Receivables
249
266
319
373
ROA
10%
6%
9%
10%
43
49
57
67
Revenue Growth (%)
16
16
20
17
6
48
57
67
EBITDA Growth (%)
42
-6
44
13
813
1,267
1,446
1,511
EPS Growth (%)
44
4
24
21
1,822
1,962
2,221
2,563
Interest Coverage (x)
6
4
5
5
Other assets
72
101
121
142
Debt to Equity (%)
84
101
90
75
Total Assets
2,706
3,330
3,788
4,216
Net Gearing (%)
40
37
31
26
159
181
211
247
Balance Sheet
Inventories Others Total Current Assets Net fixed assets
Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity
Key Ratios
0
440
1,040
0
Major Assumptions
Other current liabilities
236
187
219
256
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16E
17E
18E
LT. debt
994
1,000
500
1,540
Inflation rate (%)
3.0
3.3
4.6
5.0
Other long term liabilities
127
93
109
127
16.0
18.9
13.3
14.7
Total Liabilities
1,517
1,900
2,079
2,170
ASP growth (%)
7.0
0.0
2.5
2.0
Total Equity
1,189
1,429
1,709
2,046
Sales return (%)
12.5
12.0
12.0
12.0
www.samuel.co.id
Sales volume growth (%)
Page 4 of 5
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
www.samuel.co.id
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