Company Update
Ultrajaya Milk Industry Bloomberg: ULTJ.IJ | Reuters: ULTJ.JK
Samuel Equity Research
4 Mei 2016
Going Upward ULTJ berhasil membukukan kenaikan pada laba bersih sebesar 12.1%YoY (1Q16: Rp169 miliar vs 1Q15: Rp151 miliar), relatif in-line dengan ekspektasi kami. Kenaikan yang terjadi pada bottom line tersebut lebih disebabkan oleh turunnya beban pokok penjualan sebagai dampak dari masih berlanjutnya pelemahan harga susu bubuk dunia. Kami juga melihat tren pelemahan tersebut masih berlanjut untuk tahun ini, mengingat ekonomi Cina (konsumen utama susu dunia) yang masih belum menunjukkan pemulihan secara signifikan, di tambah dari sisi produsen dunia yang sampai saat ini belum ada sinyal untuk mengurangi jumlah produksinya. All in all, didukung dengan Rupiah yang semakin menguat, kami mempertahankan pandangan positif pada ULTJ untuk ‘16E dan mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY, TP Rp5,000/lembar saham (16E’PE: 22.8x dan PBV:5.2x). Laba bersih 1Q16 sesuai dengan ekspektasi. Pada 1Q16 ini, ULTJ mencatatkan pertumbuhan 12.1%YoY dan mencapai Rp169 miliar, angka tersebut berada di atas estimasi kami dan konsensus, dengan masing – masing mencapai 27% dan 30% terhadap proyeksi untuk total laba bersih ‘16E. Kami melihat, turunnya beban pokok penjualan sebagai dampak dari rendahnya harga susu bubuk dunia turut berkontribusi mendongkrak laba bersih. Dengan perekonomian dunia dan Cina pada khususnya, sebagai pasar utama susu dunia belum menunjukkan pemulihan yang signifikan, serta produsen susu dunia yang belum menunjukkan tanda untuk membatasi volume produksinya, kami berpendapat rendahnya harga susu bubuk dunia terus berlanjut. Dengan asumsi Rupiah mencapai Rp13,000/dolar AS serta proyeksi harga susu bubuk dunia mencapai USD2,103/MT pada akhir tahun ini (FY15: USD2,298/MT), maka kami memperhitungkan gross profit margin mampu tumbuh 50 bps (‘16E; 32% vs FY15: 31.5%). Katalis positif tambahan dari sisi volume. Jika dilihat dari catatan kinerja 1Q16, penjualan mengalami kenaikan sebesar 6.1%YoY dan hanya didorong oleh kenaikan volume. Sehingga, kami melihat resiliensi terhadap demand produk – produk ULTJ meskipun kuartal pertama kemarin ekonomi belum sepenuhnya pulih. Namun, jika dilihat pada tahun lalu, meskipun ekonomi Indonesia sedang melambat dan daya beli menurun, pertumbuhan volume ULTJ masih mampu mencapai 12.2%YoY. Maka, dengan optimisme daya beli masyarakat Indonesia yang perlahan membaik, serta tingkat konsumsi susu yang masih rendah di Indonesia (13 liter/orang/tahun vs rata – rata negara ASEAN: 30 liter/orang/tahun), kami memprediksi volume penjualan mampu tumbuh 15%YoY pada ‘16E.
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 5,000
Last Price
Rp 4,170
Potential Upside
19.9%
JCI Index
4,771
Share isued (bn)
2.89
Market Cap. (Rp tn)
12.04
52-Weeks High/Low
3,460/4,270
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
0.12
Free Float
52.7%
Nom inal Value
Rp 200
Book value/share ‘16
Rp1,167
Relative to JCI Chart 140
JCI
ULTJ
130 120
110 100 90 Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Com pany Background PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry and Trading Company operates in the food and beverage industry. The Company produces aseptic drinks such as liquid milk andtea, fruit juices and health drinks. Ultrajaya also produces butter, pow der milk and sw eet condensed milk. Shareholder Structure
Maintain BUY. Didukung oleh: (1). Optimisme penguatan nilai tukar Rupiah yang masih terus berjalan sampai akhir tahun ini, seiring dengan harapan membaiknya makroekonomi Indonesia, (2). Daya beli yang lebih kuat, ditopang oleh turunnya harga BBM dan melandainya tingkat inflasi, (3). Neraca keuangan yang sehat dengan likuiditas yang baik (zero debt, cash rich company), (4) Ekuitas brand yang kuat sebagai pemimpin pasar pada industri susu dan minuman dalam kemasan, kami optimis terhadap ULTJ, dengan mempertahankan BUY pada TP5,000/lembar saham. Namun, kekhawatiran kami terletak pada : (1) Meningkatnya persaingan dalam industri (2) Wabah penyakit terhadap sapi (3). Likuiditas saham.
PT Praw iraw idjaja Prakarsa
21%
Sabana Praw iraw idjaja
15%
Indolife Pensiontama
8%
PT AJ Central Asia Raya
8%
Public
45%
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp4,170 per share) Y/E Dec (Rpbn) Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp/shr) Dividend Yield (%) BV per share (Rp/shr) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
14A 3,917 470 292 101 0.3 698 17.7 36.6 4.7
15E 4,394 804 523 181 0.3 784 21.7 20.4 3.8
16E 5,053 980 632 219 0.5 968 12.3 16.9 3.2
17E 5,912 1,153 757 262 0.6 1,167 9.8 14.1 2.6
Marlene Tanumihardja +62 21 2854 8387
[email protected]
Page 1 of 7
DISCLAIMER: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Ultrajaya Milk Industry ULTJ.IJ / ULTJ.JK
Figure 1. Indonesia Inflation Rate 9.0
8.0 7.0
6.0
(%)
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
1.0 0.0
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 2. Exchange Rate Movement 15,000 14,500
Rp/USD
14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500
12,000 Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 3. Milk Consumption per Capita (Liters/Person/Year)
60.0 50.9 50.0 40.0
33.7
30.0
22.1
20.0
13.4
10.0 0.0 Indonesia Philippines Thailand
Malaysia
Source: Company data
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Ultrajaya Milk Industry ULTJ.IJ / ULTJ.JK
Figure 4. White Milk Powder and Skimmed Milk Powder Price (US$/MT) WMP
SMP
6,000 5,000
4,000 3,000 2,000
February-16
November-15
May-15
August-15
February-15
November-14
May-14
August-14
February-14
November-13
May-13
August-13
February-13
November-12
May-12
August-12
February-12
November-11
May-11
0
August-11
1,000
Source: Global Dairy Trade, Trading Event Historical Data, Bloomberg
60,000
6,000
50,000
5,000
40,000
4,000
30,000
3,000
20,000
2,000
10,000
1,000
0
USD/MT
Rp /Kg
Figure 5. Avg. milk powder prices for US$/ton and Rupiah/kg Aug’11 – Apr’16
-
Avg. milk powder cost Rp/kg (RHS)
Milk Powder Cost (LHS)
Source: Global Dairy Trade, USDA, Bloomberg, SSI Research
Figure 6. Revenue growth, est. production growth, net margin 2009 – 2017E 35.0% 30.0%
25.0% 20.0% 15.0%
10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
2009
2010
2011
Revenue growth
2012
2013
2014
2015E
Est. sales volume growth
2016E
2017E
Net margin
Source: Company data, USDA, Global Dairy Trade, Bloomberg, SSI estimates
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Page 3 of 7
Ultrajaya Milk Industry ULTJ.IJ / ULTJ.JK
Figure 8. Avg. milk powder cost (Rp/kg) vs gross margin ‘16E Gross Profit Margin
Average Milk Powder Cost (Rp/Kg)
50,000
35.0%
45,000
30.0%
40,000 25.0%
35,000 30,000
20.0%
25,000
15.0%
20,000 15,000
10.0%
10,000 5.0%
5,000 0
0.0% 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016F
Source: Company data, USDA, Global Dairy Trading, Bloomberg, SSI Research
Figure 9. Indonesia consumer valuation table as of close May 3, 2016 (Excluding UNVR) Company
Last
Target
price
price
PE (x) 15A
PBV (x) 16E
15A
ROE 16E
15A
16E
Consumer - related: Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)
1,335
1,610
31.1
28.4
5.9
5.2
18.5%
19.4%
Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ)
15,225
16,500
29.3
28.0
5.7
5.1
19.4%
19.7%
Indofood SM (INDF IJ)
7,100
8,000
22.7
18.7
2.3
2.1
10.9%
12.6%
Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ)
4,170
5,000
20.4
16.9
3.8
3.2
18.8%
18.6%
Nippon Indosari Co. (ROTI IJ)
1,430
1,670
23.8
30.3
5.2
4.4
17.9%
20.8%
Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)
42,850
39,000
59.2
52.9
73.6
64.3
121.5%
119.1%
25.5
24.5
4.6
4.0
Average (Non UNVR)
17.1%
18.2%
Poultry - related: Charoen Pokphand Indonesia* Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Malindo Feedmill
3,720
3,500
28.7
21.5
4.6
4.0
16.9%
19.1%
925
1,150
21.0
12.3
1.8
1.5
11.0%
11.0%
1,380
1,420
(36.3)
16.4
1.3
1.2
8.0%
12.3%
4.5
16.7
2.6
2.2
12.0%
14.1%
Average *Bloomb erg consensus Source: SSI estimates, Bloomberg (*Excl. UNVR, except for PE ratio & EPS CAGR)
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Ultrajaya Milk Industry ULTJ.IJ / ULTJ.JK
Figure 10. ULTJ’s forward PE Band 50
44.5
40 33.3 30
22.2 20 11.1
10 0 Jan-11
-0.1 Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
-10 Average PER - Roll
ST dev +1 ST dev +2
ST dev -1 ST dev -2
Source: SSI estimates, Bloomberg
Figure 11. Quarterly Performance
(in Rpbn)
4Q15
1Q16
QoQ
1Q15
1Q16
YoY
Revenue COGS Gross Profit Total Operating Exp. Operating Profit Other Income - Net Net interest income (expense) Share of net income associated Other income (expense) Pre-tax Income Tax (expense) Minority interest Net Income
1,119 (760) 359 (189) 170 69 (10) (14) 93 239 (116) 8 130
1,097 (750) 347 (151) 196 19 11 0 7 215 (49) 3 169
-2.0% -1.3% -3.3% -20.3% 15.5% -72.2% N/A N/A -92.2% -9.7% -57.8% -65.3% 30.1%
1034 (699) 335 (152) 183 10 5 2 3 193 (45) 2 151
1097 (750) 347 (151) 196 19 11 0 7 215 (49) 3 169
6.1% 7.3% 3.6% -0.7% 7.1% 95.8% 115.1% -74.7% 169.0% 11.6% 9.6% 8.3% 12.1%
1Q16/'16E 1Q16/'16Cons 21.6%
N/A
28.1%
N/A
27.1%
30.3%
Source: Company, SSI estimates,Bloomberg
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Page 5 of 7
Ultrajaya Milk Industry ULTJ.IJ / ULTJ.JK
Key Financials Profit and Loss Statement Rpbn
Cash Flow 14A
Revenue
15A
16E
17E
Rpbn
14A
15A
Net Income
292
523
632
757
Depreciation & amortization
139
146
170
199
3,917
4,394
5,053
5,912
(2,980)
(3,011)
(3,434)
(4,036)
Gross profit
937
1,383
1,619
1,876
Gross margin (%)
23.9
31.5
32.0
31.7
Operating cash flow
Operating profit
327
658
810
954
Net - Capital expenditure
Operating margin (%)
8.4
15.0
16.0
16.1
Other assets
EBITDA
470
804
980
1,153
EBITDA margin (%)
COGS
12.0
18.3
19.4
19.5
Other income (expenses)
48
43
46
68
Pre-tax profit
376
701
856
Income tax - net
(92)
(178)
Net profit
292
523
Net profit margin (%)
7.4
11.9
Working capital
Investing cash flow
16E
17E
(315)
(33)
21
(52)
116
664
823
903
(177)
(300)
(401)
(450)
8 (168)
(4)
(104)
(122)
(305)
(505)
(572)
Net - Borrow ings
(29)
22
(22)
(6)
Other financing
(41)
(21)
(60)
(63)
1022
Financing cash flow
(70)
1
(82)
(69)
(214)
(256)
Net - Cash flow
(122)
360
236
262
632
757
Cash at beginning
611
489
849
1,085
12.5
12.8
Cash at ending
489
849
1,085
1,347
Balance Sheet
Key Ratios
Yr-end Dec (Rpbn)
14A
15A
16E
17E
Yr-end Dec
14A
15A
16E
17E
Cash & ST investment
489
849
1,085
1,347
ROE (%)
12.9
18.7
18.8
18.6
Receivables
407
464
519
606
ROA (%)
10.0
14.8
15.1
15.4
Inventories
714
761
777
788
Revenue grow th (%)
13.2
12.2
15.0
17.0
31
29
32
35
Total current assets
1,642
2,103
2,414
2,777
EPS grow th (%)
Net fixed assets
1,003
1,160
1,391
1,642
Interest coverage (x)
272
276
380
501
2,917
3,539
4,185
4,920
385
367
459
493
Others
Other assets Total assets Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity
25
27
21
24
Other current liabilities
81
167
170
185
0
0
0
0
LT. debt Other long term liabilities
101
81
90
101
Total liabilities
652
742
815
858
2,265
2,797
3,369
4,063
Total equity
EBITDA grow th (%)
Debt to equity (%) Net gearing (%)
(18.2)
71.1
21.9
17.6
-10.3
79.3
20.9
19.7
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.6
-17.8%
-25.8%
-29.4%
-31.2%
14A
15A
16E
17E
Major Assumptions Yr-end Dec ASP grow th est (%) Average Rupiah/US$ Milk pow der cost (US$/ton)
10.0
3.0
0.0
1.0
11,885
13,500
13,000
12,500
3,547
2,588
2,328
2,104
Recommendation History – Ultrajaya Milk Industry (ULTJ) Date
Recommendation
17-Feb-16
Buy
3,700
4,800
Year Book
Buy
3,950
4,800
3,900 4,030
4,800
3,995 3,800 4,005 4,040 4,475
4,000 4,525 4,470 5,300 5,300 4,525
6-Aug-15
Buy
12-May-15
Buy
9-Apr-15 7-Nov-14 4-Jul-14 17-Apr-14 21-Jan-14 11-Jun-13
Hold Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
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Close Price
3,875
Target
4,800
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