Company Update
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR Bloomberg: DOID.IJ | Reuters: DOID.JK
Samuel Equity Research
21 March 2017
Strong Result FY’16
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 1,050
Last Price
Rp 785
Potential Upside
34%
JCI Index
5,427
Share isued (bn)
8.33
Market Cap. (Rp tn)
6.29
52-Weeks High/Low
810/95
Avg Daily Vol (mn)
85.37
Free Float
60.6%
Nominal Value
Rp 50
Book value/share ‘17
Rp312
Relative to JCI Chart 260
JCI
DOID
Oct-16
Jan-17
Company Background PT Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID) merupakan perusahaan induk dengan fokus investasi di jasa pertambangan. Serta, anak usahnya PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri (BUMA) yang merupakan salah satu kontraktor pertambangan terbesar di Indonesia Shareholder Structure Northstar Tambang Persada Ltd
39.3%
Others
0.1%
Public
60.6%
Sharlita Malik +62 21 2854 8339
[email protected]
www.samuel.co.id
Kinerja FY’16 diatas estimasi. DOID membukukan laba bersih positif di FY16 sebesar USD 37 juta (FY’15: Rugi Bersih USD 8 juta). Laba bersih ini diatas estimasi, mencerminkan 108% dari estimasi kami. Sejalan dengan level top line, pendapatan DOID meningkat 8% yoy menjadi USD 611 juta. Dengan adanya kontrak baru yang signifikan di 2016, serta didukung dengan harga batubara yang membaik DOID mampu membukukan kinerja positif di FY’16. Overburden removal (OB) 2017F naik 29.8% yoy. Hingga Dec’16, DOID mencatatkan peningkatan OB sebesar 10% yoy, mencapai 299.8 juta bcm. Didukung dengan adanya kontrak baru dari ADRO (hingga 2020) dan Angsana Jaya (hingga 2018), DOID berpotensi meningkatkan produksi. Kami estimasikan 2017F OB akan meningkat 29.8% yoy menjadi 361 juta bcm. Disisi lain, ekstraksi batubara DOID, kami estimasikan meningkat 31% yoy menjadi 46 juta ton. Peningkatan EBITDA 2017F seiring penguatan harga batubara. Dilatarbelakangi meningkatnya OB (+29.8% yoy), harga batubara yang lebih stabil (USD 65/ton), pengurangan diskon tarif yang disertai efisiensi biaya (cash cost 2017F USD 1.05/ton), DOID berpeluang memiliki marjin EBITDA yang lebih tinggi di 2017F. Kami asumsikan EBITDA marjin mencapai 35.6% di FY’17F (FY16: 35%, FY15: 33%). Serta laba bersih 2017 kami estimasikan naik mencapai USD 79 juta (16A: USD 37 juta, 15A: rugi bersih USD 8 juta).
160
60 Jul-16
Dilatarbelakangi kinerja FY’16 yang diatas estimasi, meningkatnya Overburden removal (OB), dan harga batubara yang lebih stabil kami estimasikan EBITDA DOID akan membaik di 2017F. Merekomendasikan BUY dengan meningkatkan TP menjadi Rp 1,050 merefleksikan PE’17 8.4x.
Rekomendasi Buy. Kami meningkatkan TP dari 850 menjadi 1.050 ( +21%) seiring dengan peningkatan kontrak hingga 2020 serta asumsi neraca keuangan DOID yang bertumbuh solid. Kami menggunakan pendekatan DCF dan merekomendasikan Buy untuk DOID, merefleksikan ‘17E valuasi di 4.8x EV/EBITDA dan 8.4x PE. Adupun resiko investasi terletak pada 1) berkurangnya kontrak akibat melemahnya harga batubara ke bawah $60/ton, 2) biaya produksi yang lebih mahal dari estimasi.
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp785 per share)
Y/E Dec (USD mn) Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (US$/sh) BV per share (US$/Sh) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
15A 566 187 (8) (0.001) 0.010 3.2 (4.0) 0.4
16A 611 216 37 0.004 0.015 4.6 12.9 3.8
17E 732 260 79 0.009 0.024 3.6 6.3 2.4
18E 831 302 101 0.012 0.037 2.9 4.9 1.6
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DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR DOID.IJ | DOID.JK
Figure 1. Financial performance FY’16 q-q (In Mil USD) Revenue C OGS
3Q16
4Q16
(%)
2015
y-y
FY16/
FY16/
2016
(%)
2016F
2016 Cons
159
193
21.4%
565
611
8.1%
(111)
(128)
15.3%
(439)
(447)
1.8%
126
164
Gross Profit
48
65
35.4%
Operating expenses
(22)
(72)
219.6%
(38)
30.2%
(42)
8.6%
Operating profit
26
(7)
-125.8%
88
122
39.6%
Interest income
(14)
0.2
-101.4%
2
1
-54.8%
14
19
32.5%
(46)
(53)
1
19
2653.6%
(44)
(52)
19.9%
-104.2%
(49)
(9)
-81.6%
Interest expense Net interest inc/ (exp) Other income (exp)
70
Pre-tax profit
96
Taxation Net income
(8) 89
(3)
16.2%
22
-76.9%
(5)
61
NA
(10)
32.5%
(3)
(24)
NA
12
-86.5%
(8)
37
NA
Operating Margin
16.1%
-3.4%
15.5%
20.0%
Pre-tax Margin
60.6%
11.5%
-0.9%
10.0%
Net Margin
55.7%
6.2%
-1.3%
6.1%
108%
108%
Source: Company,SSI Research
Figure 2. Figure Changes %
Old
2018F New
%
732 201 164 79
3% 5% 13% 18%
760 211 162 81
831 237 200 101
9% 12% 23% 25%
26.0 20.5 9.4
27.5 22.5 10.8
6% 10% 15%
27.8 21.3 10.7
28.6 24.1 12.1
3% 13% 13%
38 355 1.73 1.05
46 361 1.73 1.05
20% 2% 0% 0%
42 372 1.75 1.06
48 408 1.75 1.06
14% 10% 0% 0%
(USD mn)
Old
Revenue Gross Profit EBIT Net Profit
711 192 146 67
Gross Margin (%) EBIT Margin (%) Net Margin (%) Key Assumptions: Coal Production (mn ton) Overburden volume (mn Blended tariff (USD/BCM) Blended Cash cost (USD/BCM)
2017F New
Source: Company,SSI Research
www.samuel.co.id
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DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR DOID.IJ | DOID.JK
Figure 3. OB and coal removal mn tons and average rate USD/ton 2012 - 2018E OB and coal removal mn tons (LHS)
Average rate USD/ton (RHS) $2.00
480
$1.95
440
$1.90
400
$1.85
360
$1.80
320
$1.75
280
$1.70
240
$1.65
200
$1.60 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016A
2017E
2018E
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 4. Revenue USD mn and EBITDA margin 2012 – 2017E Revenue USD mn
EBITDA USD mn
EBITDA margin (RHS)
$900
40.0%
$800 36.0%
$700 $600
32.0%
$500 $400
28.0%
$300 $200
24.0%
$100 $0
20.0% 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016A
2017E
2018E
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 5. Debt/EBITDA, Interest Coverage, and Net Gearing ratios 2012 - 2017E Net gearing (RHS)
Debt/EBITDA (x)
Interest coverage (x)
6.0
1200%
5.0
1000%
4.0
800%
3.0
600%
2.0
400%
1.0
200%
0.0
0% 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Source: Company, SSI Research
www.samuel.co.id
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DELTA DUNIA DOID.IJ | DOID.JK
Profit and Loss Statement
Cash Flow
Yr-end Dec (USD mn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Yr-end Dec (USD mn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Revenue
566
611
732
831
Net Income
(8)
37
79
101
COGS
440
447
531
594
Depreciation & amort.
71
41
93
100
Gross profit
126
164
201
237
Others
(26)
17
(20)
0
Gross margin (%)
22.2
26.8
27.5
28.6
9
48
(27)
(10)
Operating profit
87
122
164
200
45
134
125
191
15.5
20.0
22.5
24.1
(23)
(34)
(150)
(150)
187
216
260
302
11
(66)
(89)
(115)
EBITDA margin (%)
33.0
35.3
35.6
36.4
Net Change In Debt
(66)
(67)
(102)
(75)
Other Income (Expenses)
(93)
(42)
(43)
(45)
Others financing
5
10
(0)
3
Pre-tax profit
(6)
61
121
155
Financing Cash Flow
(61)
(61)
(52)
(72)
Income tax - net
(3)
(24)
(42)
(54)
Net Cash Flow
(4)
(4)
(15)
4
Net profit
(8)
37
79
101
Cash Beginning
75
71
67
52
(1.5)
6.1
10.8
12.1
Cash Ending
71
67
52
55
15A
16A
17E
18E
Operating margin (%) EBITDA
Net profit margin (%)
Balance Sheet
Working capital Operating Cash Flow Net - Capital expenditure Investing Cash Flow
Key Ratios
Yr-end Dec (USD mn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Cash & ST Investment
71
67
52
55
ROE
-9.8%
29.3%
38.9%
33.2%
139
146
146
165
ROA
-1.0%
4.2%
9.4%
11.5%
Inventories
20
18
20
20
Revenue Growth (%)
(6.9)
8.0
19.8
13.5
Others
37
49
43
43
EBITDA Growth (%)
0.4
15.7
20.6
16.1
Total Current Assets
308
299
291
313
EPS Growth (%)
n.a
112.4
27.9
Net fixed assets
379
406
429
479
Interest coverage (x)
1.9
2.8
3.8
4.5
Other assets
145
177
116
80
Debt to EBITDA (x)
3.6
2.8
1.9
1.4
Total Assets
832
882
836
873
698.8
427.2
223.5
123.3
Payables
52
107
74
83
ST. debt and curr. maturity
50
106
69
47
Major Assumptions
Other current liabilities
26
33
19
19
Yr-end Dec
15A
16A
17E
18E
614
501
436
382
30
35
38
41
747
756
617
553
85
126
203
304
Receivables
LT. debt Other long term liabilities Total Liabilities Total Equity
www.samuel.co.id
Yr-end Dec (USD mn)
Net Gearing (%)
Rupiah avg. (USD/IDR) Newcastle price US$/ton
(150.5)
13,400 13,600
13,200
12,800
59
60
65
65
Overburden (MnTons)
273
300
361
408
Coal getting (MnTons)
33
35
46
48
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
www.samuel.co.id
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