Company Update
Bank BRI Bloomberg: BBRI:IJ | Reuters: BBRI.JK
Samuel Research
09 Februari 2017
Growing Softly
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 13,500
Last Price
Rp 12,000
Potential Upside
12.5%
JCI Index
5,322
Share Issued (m n)
24,669
Market Cap. (Rp bn)
296,030
52-Weeks High/Low
12,975/9,525
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
21.1
Free Float
43.25%
Nom inal Value
Rp 250
Book value/share ‘16
Rp 5,935
Relative to JCI Chart 20% 10% 0% Dec-14 -10% -20% -30% -40%
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Jan-17
BBRI
Pertumbuhan kredit di tahun ini diperkirakan masih di atas industri terutama ditopang oleh segmen mikro dan BUMN, sementara pendapatan komisi masih akan tumbuh relatif kuat. Namun masalah kualitas aset masih perlu diwaspadai. Tetap Buy dengan TP sedikit turun menjadi Rp 13.500 (2,0x PBV 2017F). Tetap waspadai NPL. Meski NPL (bank only) tampak membaik di 2H16 (4Q16: 2,03%, 2Q16: 2,31%, 4Q15: 2,02%), kami masih menyimpan kekhawatiran mengenai kualitas aset bank ini di tahun ini karena sejumlah hal: 1.) Manajemen BRI memperkirakan NPL sebesar 2,2-2,4% di tahun ini, lebih tinggi dari 2,03% di 4Q16 (bank only) atau 2,13% di 4Q16 (konsolidasi); 2.) NPL segmen korporasi non SoE dan medium yang tinggi dan cenderung meningkat bahkan di 4Q16, dapat berlanjut di tahun ini dan ada kemungkinan writeoff; 3.) Coverage ratio direncanakan tidak jauh berbeda dari tahun 2016 (4Q16: 170%, rencana 2017: 160-170%), mengindikasikan kemungkinan penurunan biaya provisi secara yoy yang tidak begitu besar, atau mungkin malah akan naik. Perlu diingat bahwa Direktur Utama BRI akan segera mengakhiri masa jabatannya di 1Q17 dan saat ini calon penggantinya sedang diseleksi. Ada kemungkinan perubahan pemimpin akan membawa perubahan juga pada kebijakan dan program seputar kualitas aset.
JCI
Com pany Background PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk didirikan pada tahun 1968 dan melantai di bursa efek pada 2003. Bank ini terus berkembang dan saat ini merupakan salah satu bank terbesar di Indonesia. Shareholder Structure Govt of Indonesia
56.8%
Public
43.3%
Andy Ferdinand, CFA +62 21 2854 8148
[email protected]
Segmen mikro dan korporasi SoE masih kuat. Setelah membukukan kenaikan kredit 14,2% di 2016, kami memperkirakan kredit tumbuh 14% di tahun ini dengan segmen mikro dan korporasi non SOE masih sebagai penopang utamanya. KUR masih akan memegang peranan penting di segmen mikro meski ada perubahan skema dari pemerintah. Sementara itu, berjalannya proyek infrastruktur merupakan kunci bagi berlanjutnya permintaan kredit infrastruktur ke BUMN. Seiring dengan potensi peningkatan inflasi dan suku bunga, kami memperkirakan NIM akan sedikit turun (sekitar 30bps yoy) di tahun ini. Pendapatan komisi turut menopang kinerja. Fee-based income yang ratarata (CAGR) tumbuh 23,9% per tahun diperkirakan masih akan bertumbuh relatif kuat di tahun ini dengan proporsi pendapatan komisi ke total pendapatan perlahan meningkat (2015: 7,4%, 2016: 8,2%, 2017F: 9,0%). Maintain Buy with lower TP. Setelah sedikit merevisi ke bawah forecast kami sejalan dengan situasi terkini dan guidance manajemen, target price kami berdasarkan book value turun sedikit menjadi Rp 13.500 (2.0x PBV 2017F) dengan faktor resiko NPL dan biaya dana yang meningkat. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp12,000 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) Net Interest Income Pre Provision Profit Net Profit EPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%) BV per Share (Rp) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x)
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15A 58,279 40,859 25,398 1,030 295 2.5 4,574 11.7 2.6
16A 67,577 47,754 26,196 1,062 309 2.6 5,935 11.3 2.0
17E 73,541 49,965 28,054 1,137 319 2.7 6,754 10.6 1.8
18E 80,646 52,565 31,927 1,294 341 2.8 7,707 9.3 1.6
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Bank BRI BBRI:IJ | BBRI.JK Figure 1. FY16 Result (reported figures) Rpbn
4Q15
3Q16
4Q16
FY16
YoY
FY16F
Achiev.
Net Interest Income
15,416
17,074
17,519
2.6%
Operating Profit
10,567
7,449
11,740
57.6%
13.6% 58,280
67,576
16.0% 66,268
102.0%
11.1% 31,960
33,966
6.3% 31,765
106.9%
Pre Provision Profit
12,374
11,342
14,110
24.4%
14.0% 40,860
47,757
16.9% 44,102
108.3%
6,981
6,775
7,245
6.9%
3.8% 25,398
26,196
3.1% 25,923
101.1%
8.1%
8.3%
14 bps
BOPO
68.0%
68.9%
97 bps
LDR
86.9%
87.8%
89 bps
2.0%
2.0%
1 bps
Net Profit
YoY
QoQ
FY15
Bank Only: NIM
Gross NPL Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 2. Loan (Bank only) Composition
Rptn
FY15
Micro
FY16
Growth Composition
179
212
18.2%
33.3%
89
100
13.2%
15.8%
Small Commercial
115
126
9.8%
19.8%
Medium Corporate Non SoE
20 75
21 84
4.0% 12.0%
3.3% 13.2%
81 558
93 635
14.3% 13.8%
14.6% 100.0%
Consumer
SoE TOTAL Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 3. Deposit (Bank only) Composition
Rpbn
FY15
FY16
Growth Composition
Time Deposit
262
285
8.8%
39.4%
Saving Account
268
298
11.2%
41.1%
Current Account TOTAL
113 643
141 724
24.6% 12.6%
19.5% 100.0%
Source: Company, SSI Research
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Page 2 of 5
Bank BRI BBRI:IJ | BBRI.JK Figure 4. Gross NPL (%) by Segment 10 8 6 4
2 0 1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
Micro
Consumer
Small Comm.
Medium
Corp. Non SoE
Overall
4Q16
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 5. Fee-Based Income (Rp tn) and Its Composition in FY16
10 8
9%
4-yr CAGR: 23.9%
Deposit Admin
10%
6
44%
4
E-banking Loan Admin
13%
Intl. Business
2
Others 24%
0 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 6. Rolling Forward PBV 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Average PBV- Forward
Jan-14
Jan-15
ST dev +1 ST dev +2
Jan-16
Jan-17
ST dev -1 ST dev -2
Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research
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Bank BRI BBRI:IJ | BBRI.JK Key Financials Profit and Loss (Rp bn)
Key Ratio (our calculations m ay differ slightly from actual)
15A
16A
17F
18F
15A
16A
17F
18F
8.4%
8.7%
8.4%
8.2%
20.2% 17.9%
17.9%
Net Interest Income
58,279
67,577
73,541
80,646
Profitability
Operating Income
31,959
33,964
35,896
40,859
NIM
Pre Provision Profit
40,859
47,754
49,965
52,565
ROAE
24.1%
Profit before Tax
32,494
33,973
35,905
40,869
ROAA
3.0%
Net Profit
25,398
26,196
28,054
31,927
CIR BOPO
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%
43.4%
43.7% 46.4%
48.8%
67.8%
69.7% 70.9%
70.0%
LDR
86.9%
87.6% 87.7%
87.7%
CASA Ratio
57.8%
59.1% 59.7%
60.4%
Liquidity Balance Sheet Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Cash
15A
16A
17F
18E
28,772
25,212
24,279
20,675
CA and Placement
120,289
144,802
161,381
179,919
Asset Quality
Marketable Securities
124,873
131,482
151,194
173,879
Gross NPL
2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
2.2%
Gross Loan
564,480
643,471
733,557
836,255
NPL Coverage
151%
170%
170%
170%
Loan Provision
(17,162)
(22,184)
(27,929)
(31,182)
3,816
3,318
3,152
2,994
53,358
77,543
86,918
97,409
20.6%
22.8% 21.2%
22.6%
14.0%
14.0% 14.0%
14.0%
7.5%
12.8% 13.8%
13.8%
Recap Govt Bonds Other Assets
Capital CAR
Total Assets
878,426 1,003,644 1,132,553 1,279,950
Deposits
668,995
754,525
858,442
976,836
Growth Rate
Current Account
114,367
142,547
163,929
188,518
Gross Loan
Saving Account
272,471
303,269
348,759
401,073
Deposits
Time Deposit
282,157
308,709
345,754
387,245
Net Interest Income
13.3%
16.0%
8.8%
9.7%
Deposits from Other Banks 11,165
2,229
2,340
2,457
Operating Income
12.9%
6.3%
5.7%
13.8%
4.9%
3.1%
7.1%
13.8%
4.7%
5.1%
5.2%
5.4%
4.8%
4.8%
5.3%
13,500 13,253 13,200
12,800
Borrowings
35,480
35,008
36,758
38,596
Securities Issued
10,521
24,800
23,560
22,382
Other Liabilities
39,138
40,270
44,424
49,119
Total Liabilities
765,299
856,832
Minority Interest
294
391
411
431
112,834
146,422
166,617
190,128
Total Equity
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965,525 1,089,391
Net Profit
Macro GDP Growth BI RR Rate USD/IDR, average
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Adde Chandra Kurniawan
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
www.samuel.co.id
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