Company Note
Matahari Department Store Bloomberg: LPPF.IJ | Reuters: LPPF.JK
Samuel Equity Research
11 January 2017
New Year, New Optimism!
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 19,500
Last Price
Rp 15,675
Potential Upside
24%
JCI Index
5,315
Share isued (bn)
2.92
Market Cap. (Rp tn)
45.4
52-Weeks High/Low
14,500/22575
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
6.51
Free Float
44.4%
Nom inal Value
Rp 1,000
Book value/share ‘17
Rp1,166
Relative to JCI Chart 120
JCI
LPPF
100
80 May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Com pany Background PT Matahari Department Store Tbk memiliki bisnis ritel yang terbagi dalam beberapa jenis produk seperti baju, aksesoris, tas, sepatu, kosmetik, peralatan rumah tangga, dan merupakan operator terbesar dalam segmen Department Store di Indonesia
Meskipun harga saham LPPF pada tahun 2016 lalu sempat turun sebanyak 61% dari harga tertingginya, namun pada tahun ini kami menyimpan sejumlah optimisme. Diawali dengan optimisme membaiknya kinerja 4Q16 seiring usaha manajemen untuk lebih fokus pada segmen Direct Purchase yang mendatangkan marjin lebih tinggi, stabilnya inflasi sampai dengan Desember ’16 kemarin, dan ekspektasi peningkatan daya beli (bullishnya harga komoditas), turut menjadi sentimen positif untuk prospek kinerja LPPF pada tahun 2017. Didukung oleh masih berlanjutnya ekspansi pembukaan gerai – gerai baru serta mulai meredanya kekhawatiran investor, kami merekomendasikan BUY dengan TP Rp 19,500/lembar saham, 17E’PE: 20.6x, dan PBV: 16.7x. Melanjutkan optimisme dengan beberapa sentimen positif. Kami tetap memproyeksikan kinerja positif untuk LPPF, terutama dengan dorongan mulai berkurangnya kekhawatiran para investor menyangkut investasi tambahan pada Mataharimall.com pada bulan November 2016 lalu. Sebagai kilas balik, LPPF berencana untuk menyuntikkan dana dengan total sebesar Rp590 miliar yang dilakukan secara bertahap sampai dengan 3Q17, untuk meningkatkan kepemilikan sebesar 19% (sebelumnya: 9.5%), dan menghindari dilusi kepemilikan setelah masuknya investasi dari Mitsui. Meskipun kami melihat kesuksesan bisnis e-Commerce hanya mampu terlihat dalam kurun waktu jangka panjang, namun giatnya manajemen untuk fokus pada segmen Direct Purchase (yang notabene memberikan marjin yang lebih kuat dan strong brand recognition), meyakinkan kami akan kondisi neraca keuangan dan likuiditas masih mampu tersokong.
Shareholder Structure Multipolar Tbk
20.5%
Capital Group Company
6.5%
Fil LTD
3.1%
Blackrock
2.2%
T Row e Price Associates
2.1%
Ameriprise Fin Group
1.7%
Morgan Stanley Investment Inc
1.0%
Public
62.7%
Ekspansi toko yang masih on track. Tahun ini, LPPF merencanakan untuk membuka 6 - 8 gerai baru, dengan mayoritas pembukaan gerai baru tersebut masih berada di Jawa (Jawa: 35.1%, vs. Luar Jawa: 49.1%, vs. Jabodetabek: 15.8%). Dengan ekspektasi terhadap membaiknya daya beli (salah satu penyebabnya adalah bullishnya harga komoditas), kami memprediksi SSSG pada tahun ini sebesar 7.5.% (‘16E: 6.5% ). Valuasi dan Rekomendasi: Kami masih optimis kinerja LPPF lebih baik pada tahun ini, seiring dengan mulai meredanya kekhawatiran para investor terutama menyangkut investasi tambahan pada lini bisnis e-Commerce, menyusul harga saham yang mulai naik sebesar 16.5%. Secara historis, LPPF diperdagangkan pada 5-years PE sebesar 22.6x, sedangkan pada saat ini, LPPF hanya diperdagangkan dengan PE sebesar 16.6x. BUY.
Marlene Tanumihardja +62 21 2854 8387
[email protected]
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp15,675 per share) Y/E De c (Rp bn)
2013A
2014A
2015E
Revenue
6,753
7,926
9,006
10,908
11,925
13,270
EBITDA
3,308
3,718
3,957
4,290
4,930
5,899
Net prof it
1,147
1,448
1,772
2,131
2,440
2,760
EPS (Rp)
2017F
2018F
496
607
730
836
946
983
EBITDA margin (%)
28%
28%
27%
25%
25%
26%
BV/Share (Rp)
1639
-268
55
379
747
1166
PBV (x)
-58
287
41
21
13
Dividend per Share
(1)
EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) P/E (x)
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2016F
14
158
292
365
418
10 473
11.9
11.0
10.1
8.7
7.1
1.0%
1.9%
2.4%
2.8%
3.1%
3.2%
31.6
25.8
21.5
18.7
16.6
15.9
Matahari Department Store LPPF.IJ | LPPF.JK
Figure 1. Sales Performance and SSSG 14,000
16.0%
12,000
14.0% 12.0%
10,000
10.0%
Rp Bn
8,000
8.0% 6,000
6.0%
4,000
4.0%
2,000
2.0%
-
0.0% 2011
2012
2013
2014 SSSG
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
Sales
Source : Company, SSI Research
Figure 2. PE Band
32
27
22
17
12 Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Average PER - Roll
Jul-15
Jan-16
ST dev +1 ST dev +2
Jul-16
Jan-17
ST dev -1 ST dev -2
Source : Bloomberg, Company, SSI Research
Figure 3. Sector Valuation
Company
Rec
Last
Target
Price (Rp) Price (Rp)
Market Cap
P/E
PEG
EPS EV/EBITD CAGR (%) A ROE (%)
(Rpbn)
17E
17E
17E
17E
16E-19E
RALS
BUY
1,225
1,565
8,799
18.8
0.3
10.8
12.6
28.1
MAPI
BUY
5,300
6,700
7,968
24.9
0.2
6.6
9.0
74.0
ACES
BUY
800
1,000
14,578
21.8
1.5
15.4
19.1
11.1
LPPF Sector Average
BUY
15,675
21,300
44,354
16.6
0.4
8.7
72.0
12.1
20.5
0.6
10.4
28.2
31.3
Source : Bloomberg, Company, SSI Research
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Matahari Department Store LPPF.IJ | LPPF.JK
Figure 4. Store Layout
Source : Various Sources
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Matahari Department Store LPPF.IJ | LPPF.JK
Key Financials Profit and Loss Rp bn Revenue COGS Gross profit
Cash Flow 15A
16E
17E
18E
9,006
10,908
11,925
13,270
(3,336) (4,050) (4,304) (4,573) 5,670
6,858
7,621
8,697
Gross margin (%)
63%
63%
64%
66%
Operating profit
2,329
2,684
3,012
3,407
Operating margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Other income (expenses)
26%
25%
25%
26%
2,569
2,966
3,308
3,718
29%
27%
28%
28%
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Net income Depreciation & amort. Others
15A
16E
17E
18E
1,772
2,131
2,440
2,760
206
(210)
(2)
(3)
52
27
75
16
(127)
160
22
83
1,902
2,108
2,534
2,857
Net - Capital expenditure
(358)
(501)
(934)
(510)
Investing cash flow
(529) (1,005)
(928)
(506)
Net - Borrowings
(410)
0
0
Working capital Operating cash flow
0
(150)
0
0
Pre-tax profit
2,236
2,478
2,835
3,249
Financing cash flow
Income tax - net
(464)
(348)
(395)
(488)
Net - Cash flow
124
Net profit
Cash at beginning Cash at ending
1,772
2,131
2,440
2,760
Net profit margin (%)
20%
20%
20%
21%
Balance Sheet Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Cash & ST Investment
15A 938
16E 1,066
17E 1,498
18E 2,520
76
119
120
136
1,008
1,284
1,333
242
297
325
2,264
2,766
3,275
Net fixed assets
877
1,587
Other assets
739
1,242
Total assets
3,879
Payables
Receivables Inventories Others Total current assets
ST. debt and curr. maturity Other current liabilities LT Bank Loans Other long term liabilities
Other financing
Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) ROE (%)
0
(839)
(983) (1,175) (1,329)
(1,249)
(983) (1,175) (1,329) 119
432
1,023
786
947
1,066
1,498
947
1,066
1,498
2,520
15A 160%
16E 98%
17E 72%
18E 58%
ROA (%)
46%
38%
35%
32%
1,433
Revenue growth (%)
14%
21%
9%
11%
382
EBITDA growth (%)
10%
15%
12%
12%
4,471
EPS growth (%)
22%
20%
15%
13%
2,524
3,037
Interest coverage (x)
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
1,235
1,231
Debt to equity (%)
0
0
0
0
5,596
7,035
8,738
Net gearing (%)
-86
-49
-44
-53
1,704
2,069
2,199
2,336
0
0
0
0
735
931
975
1,110
15A
16E
17E
18E
0
0
0
0
5.8
6.5
7.5
8.5
Major Assumptions SSSG (%)
334
416
460
512
Average Store Size (sqm)
6,287
6,385
6,383
6,336
Total liabilities
2,773
3,415
3,634
3,958
Productivity/sqm (Rp Bn)
18
19
19
20
Total equity
1,106
2,180
3,400
4,780
Inventory days
109
114
111
113
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Matahari Department Store
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Head Of Equity Research,Strategy, Banking, Consumer Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Adde Chandra Kurniawan
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Head of PWM / Head of Institutional Marketing Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Wahyudi Budiono
Dealer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8152
Kelvin Siwah Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Indra S. Affandi
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8334
Lucia Irawati
Head of Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Ferry Khusaeri
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8304
Iwan Setiadi
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8313
Lia Chaterina
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8315
Amelia Sintama
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8308
Salt World Widjaja
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8163
Jovita Widjaja
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8314
James Wihardja
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8397
Joseph Soegandhi
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8872
Dian Anggraeni
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8301
Sylviawati
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8112
Verawati Gunawan
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8312
Cenni Liawisusi
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8303
Frans Ferdiansah
Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8337
Muhamad Faisyal
Dealer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8155
Wulan Budi Setyowati
Dealer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8369
Bismar Ferryaman
Dealer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8368
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head Of Marketing OLT
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Rina Lestari
Customer Service
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8180
Martha Lamtiurma Tampubolon
Customer Service
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8182
Mohamad Andhika Prasetia
Customer Service
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8183
Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
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