Company Update
Astra International Bloomberg: ASII.IJ | Reuters: ASII.JK
Samuel Equity Research
3 August 2016
Unchanged view
HOLD (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 6,800
Last Price
Rp 7,975
Potential Upside
-14.7%
JCI Index
5,373
Share isued (m n)
40.48
Market Cap. (Rp bn)
321.84
52-Weeks High/Low
8,075 / 4,975
Avg Daily Vol (m n)
46.11
Free Float
49.8%
Nom inal Value
Rp 50
Book value/share ‘16
Rp 2,690
Relative to JCI Chart 135
JCI
ASII
120 105 90 75 Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Com pany Background PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology. Shareholder Structure Jardine Cycle & Carriage L Aberdeen
50.1% 2.7%
Others
47.2%
Laba 1H16 ASII dilaporkan sebesar Rp7.11tn (-11.62%YoY). Rendahnya pencapaian disebabkan oleh penurunan laba UNTR dan segmen jasa keuangan. Di sisi lain, kinerja segmen auto membukukan pertumbuhan diatas ekspektasi kami (+13%YoY) didorong oleh peluncuran beberapa varian baru. Pertumbuhan positif juga dialami segmen agribisnis (+78%YoY) yang disebabkan oleh one time gain. Lonjakan pertumbuhan laba 2Q16 (+287%YoY) dan membaiknya margin ASII masih belum kami jadikan sebagai indikasi stabilnya pertumbuhan kinerja di kuartal berjalan m aupun sebagai acuan untuk melakukan perubahan sudut pandang. Tetap Hold untuk ASII dengan target SOTP sebesar Rp6.800/saham (15.84x P/E16E dan 2.53x PBV16E). Kinerja 1H16 dibawah ekspektasi. ASII membukukan laba 1H16 sebesar Rp7.11tn (-11.62%YoY) atau hanya 87.7% dari perkiraan konsensus (Rp8.1tn) dan sekitar 90.1% dari proyeksi laba 1H16 kami (Rp7.9tn). Penurunan laba tersebut disebabkan oleh rendahnya kinerja UNTR ditengah kontinuitas pelemahan aktivitas industri yang belum menunjukan perbaikan. Sementara penurunan kinerja segmen jasa keuangan yang telah ikut menekan laba ASII disebabkan oleh kenaikan signifikan loan-loss provisions. 1H16 vs FY16E yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan. Angka laba 1H16 ASII hanya mencapai 47.9% dari proyeksi laba FY16E kami dan 39.2% dibandingkan angka konsensus. Untuk mencapai ekspektasi laba tahun ini, maka laba 2H16 ASII harus tercatat bertumbuh sebesar 55.3%YoY atau +59.1%YoY dibandingkan dengan proyeksi kami. Sebuah angka yang kami perkirakan akan sulit tercapai. Ekspektasi pencapaian FY16E yang lebih baik dari tahun lalu. Terlepas dari rendahnya pencapaian 1H16 vs FY16E, kami berharap potensi stabilnya kinerja auto dan pertumbuhan laba segmen agribisnis dibarengi dengan ekspektasi membaiknya pelemahan kinerja UNTR dan segmen jasa keuangan akan mendorong pencapaian laba ASII FY16 vs FY16E lebih baik dari tahun lalu yang hanya 79% dari proyeksi SSI dan 86% konsensus. Maintain Hold. Tiga skenario proyeksi kami untuk ASII masih belum berubah. Target SOTP kami masih menggunakan skenario moderate. Kekhawatiran kami terletak pada (1) Pertumbuhan stabil segmen auto dan terjaganya pertumbuhan AALI belum mampu menutupi tekanan laba pada segmen jasa keuangan dan UNTR. Perubahan sudut pandang dan TP akan kami lakukan menggunakan laporan kinerja 3Q16. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp7,975 per share) Y/E Dec (Rpbn) Sales
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA +62 21 2854 8144
[email protected]
www.samuel.co.id
14A
15A
16E
17E
201,701
184,196
184,213
194,444
EBITDA
25,721
20,706
23,820
27,627
Net Profit
19,181
14,464
17,380
20,778
EPS (Rp/saham)
474
357
429
513
DPS (Rp)
216
216
199
239
Dividend Yield (%)
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
3.0%
BV per share (Rp)
2,362
2,521
2,690
3,052
EV/EBITDA (x)
13.6
17.7
15.0
12.9
P/E Ratio (x)
16.8
22.3
18.6
15.5
P/BV Ratio (x)
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.6
Astra International ASII.IJ | ASII.JK
Figure 1. Net income portion (%) Auto
Financial
HE
Agri
Figure 5. 2W Astra and Non Astra FY
Infra & others
IT
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Astra and Non Astra 2W vol sales
4,453,888
1,787,666
1,000,000
2,722,539
2,000,000
2,026,267
4,696,999
3,046,880
3,000,000
2,975,569
4,088,888
4,000,000
5,072,049
5,000,000
4,481,214
6,000,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Company, SSI Research
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 2. Net margin (%)
Figure 6. Astra and Non Astra M/S FY (%)
14%
2016F
30.00%
2%
20.00%
0%
71.48%
68.73%
10.00%
28.52%
40.00%
4%
31.27%
50.00%
6%
65.07%
60.00%
34.93%
8%
39.35%
70.00%
60.65%
10%
42.12%
80.00%
57.88%
Astra and Non Astra 2W M/S FY
12%
0.00% 2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Company, SSI Research
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 3. Astra and Non Astra 4W M/S 1H (%)
Figure 7. ASII net profit 1H vs FY16
Astra 4W M/S 1H
48.59
49.99
47.94
46.67
43.65
80%
45.11
100%
53.33
52.06
50.01
51.41
20%
56.35
40%
54.89
60%
1H11
1H12
1H13
1H14
1H15
1H16
0%
Laba 1H
Laba FY
2013
2014
2016F
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011
2012
2015
2016E
Source: Company, SSI Research
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 4. Astra and Non Astra M/S FY (%)
Figure 8. Automotive loan channeled (YoY)
Astra 4W M/S FY
Vehicles Ownership Loans
100%
48.83
49.65
49.16
46.78
45.78
25%
46.02
80% 60%
53.22
50.84
50.35
51.17
5%
54.22
20%
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
0% -5%
-10%
0%
Source: Company, SSI Research
www.samuel.co.id
15%
10%
53.98
40%
20%
-15% Source : Bloomberg, SSI Research
Page 2 of 5
Figure 9. ASII - 1H16 Result 4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
QoQ
1H15
1H16
Sales
(in Rp bn)
46,019
41,887
46,321
10.6
92,505
88,208
COGS
YoY 1H16/FY16E (4.6)
47.88%
(36,572)
(33,914)
(37,447)
10.4
(74,587)
(71,361)
(4.3)
Gross Profit
9,447
7,973
8,874
11.3
17,918
16,847
(6.0)
Marketing & Selling Expense
(2,542)
(1,881)
(3,525)
87.4
(5,310)
(5,406)
1.8
G&A Expense
(2,436)
(2,713)
(1,262)
(53.5)
(4,484)
(3,975)
(11.4)
Operating income
4,469
3,379
4,087
21.0
8,124
7,466
(8.1)
Other non-Operating Income (expense)
(3,230)
1,108
1,658
49.6
3,949
2,766
(30.0)
Pre-tax Income
1,239
4,487
5,745
28.0
12,073
10,232
(15.2)
237
848
1,074
26.7
2,315
1,922
(17.0)
527
667
26.6
1,706
1,194
(30.0)
3,112
4,004
28.7
8,052
7,116
(11.62)
40.94%
77 26.1%
99 28.7%
28.7
199 55.67%
176 40.94%
(11.6)
17,380 40.94%
Tax Minority interest
(1,465)
Net income (owners of parent)
2,467
EPS
61
43.45%
38.94%
40.83%
Profitability Operating margin
9.7%
8.1%
8.8%
0.8%
8.8%
8.5%
-0.3%
Pre-tax margin
2.7%
10.7%
12.4%
1.7%
13.1%
11.6%
-1.5%
Net margin
5.4%
7.4%
8.6%
1.2%
8.7%
8.1%
-0.6%
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 10. ASII business / segmentation - revenue Revenue quarterly (Rpbn) Auto Financial HE
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
26,521
27,667
25,496
27,288
23,136
24,712
22,499
25,087
3,648
3,841
4,057
3,983
4,160
4,296
4,286
4,332
13,857
13,601
13,245
12,422
12,621
12,269
13,317
11,002
Agribusiness
3,726
4,282
3,752
4,546
3,233
3,996
3,118
2,712
Infrastructure & others
1,676
1,880
2,073
2,129
1,616
1,597
1,839
1,894
IT Total
393
436
431
751
421
448
613
992
49,821
51,707
49,054
51,119
45,187
47,318
45,672
46,019
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 11. ASII business / segmentation - net income Net income quarterly (Rpbn)
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
Auto
2,049
1,954
1,892
2,585
1,621
1,821
1,947
2,075
Financial
981
1,497
1,327
943
1,191
894
911
559
HE
959
1,029
917
363
983
1,065
Agribusiness
625
466
410
494
124
230 -
238
377
Infrastructure & others
87
84
81
238
36
32
23
315
IT
26
58
50
66
37
38
48
81
4,727
5,088
4,677
4,689
3,992
4,080
3,985
2,407
Total
1,294 -
1,000
Source: Company, SSI Research
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Page 3 of 5
Key Financials Profit and Loss Yr-end Dec(Rpbn) Revenue COGS Gross profit
Cash Flow 14A
15A
16E
17E
201,701
184,196
184,213
194,444
(162,892) (147,486) (145,437) (152,896) 38,809
36,710
38,776
41,547
Gross margin (%)
19.2
19.9
21.0
21.4
Operating profit
20,163
17,212
19,175
21,208
10.0
9.3
10.4
10.9
25,721
20,706
23,820
27,627
12.8
11.2
12.9
14.2
Opr margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%)
Yr-end Dec(Rpbn) Net income
14A
15A
16E
17E
19,181
14,464
17,380
20,778
6,540
6,242
6,439
6,849
(2,158)
(4,038)
(3,502)
4,178
(2,702)
2,121
3,175
29,606
15,846
21,903
27,300
(15,737)
(11,318)
(5,098)
(10,054)
Investing CF
(8,306)
(8,306)
(1,939)
(6,051)
Dividend
(8,744)
(8,744)
(8,792)
(12,589)
2,079
2,079
(6,358)
(1,049)
(6,665)
(15,151)
(13,639)
Depr & amort. Others Working capital Operating CF Net - Capex
(293)
Other inc (exp)
7,189
2,418
5,887
8,485
Other
Pre-tax profit
27,352
19,630
25,062
29,693
Financing CF
(6,665)
Income tax - net
(5,227)
(4,017)
(4,864)
(5,731)
Net - Cash flow
14,635
875
4,813
7,610
Net profit
19,181
14,464
17,380
20,778
Cash at beginning
18,557
20,902
27,586
28,156
9.51
7.85
9.43
10.69
Cash at ending
20,902
27,586
28,156
29,417
0
0
0
0
Profit margin (%)
18382 Balance Sheet Yr-end Dec(Rpbn)
Key Ratios 14A
15A
16E
17E
Cash & ST Invest
20,902
27,586
28,156
29,417
Receivables
51,629
49,504
47,153
Inventories
16,986
18,337
14A
15A
16E
17E
ROE (%)
20.1%
14.2%
16.0%
16.8%
51,716
ROA (%)
8.1%
5.9%
7.2%
8.1%
18,421
19,444
Rev growth (%)
4%
-9%
0%
6%
7,724
9,734
7,054
6,474
-1.2%
-24.6%
20.2%
19.6%
Total cur assets
97,241
105,161
100,784
107,051
Int cov (x)
18.7
15.1
11.9
15.1
Net fixed assets
61,336
58,545
60,392
64,233
Debt to equity (%)
73%
69%
59%
51%
Other assets
77,452
81,729
80,427
85,089
Net gearing (%)
51%
42%
33%
27%
Total assets
236,029
245,435
241,604
256,373
Payables
18,839
20,557
17,206
18,161
ST.debt & curr. mat
37,421
36,202
32,334
29,638
14A
15A
16E
17E
Other cur liabilities
17,263
19,483
15,766
16,642
GDP (%)
5.5
4.7
5.1
5.4
LT. debt
32,651
34,447
31,411
32,758
IDR-Avg (Per USD)
11,885
13,500
13,650
13,200
9,531
8,213
11,007
9,188
IDR-Eop (Per USD)
12,440
14,000
13,000
12,500
Total liabilities
115,705
118,902
107,725
106,388
Oil (USD/barel)
98
55
40
50
Total equity
120,324
126,533
133,879
149,985
Coal ASP (US$)
66
61
55
62
Others
Other lt liabilities
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Yr-end Dec(Rpbn)
EPS growth (%)
Assumption
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