SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 22, 2010 COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES Last Oil (USD/bbl) Gas (USD/MMBtu) Nickel (USD/Mt) Tins (USD/Mt) Copper (USD/Mt) Gold (USD/Oz) Coal (USD/Mt) CPO (MYR/Mt) Rubber (USD/kg) IDR SGD/USD HKD/USD JPY/USD EUR/USD MYR/USD PHP/USD THB/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD
%Chg
Description
0.85 (3.80) 0.31 2.67 1.78 0.38 0.44 1.22 (0.06) (0.37) (0.04) (0.01) 0.02 (0.32) (0.23) (0.07) 0.47 0.41
WTI Crude Future Natural Gas Future LME 3-mo forward LME 3-mo forward LME 3-mo forward Golds spot Generic 1st ‘IV’ Future Malaysian 3-mo Future S’pore Ribbed Smoked Indonesian Rupiah Singapore Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Japanese Yen Euro Malaysian Ringgit Philippines Peso Thailand Bath Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar
90.01 4.07 24,625 26,890 9,365 1,390.0 113.00 3,561.0 539.5 9043 1.3121 7.7742 83.77 1.3124 3.1285 44.35 30.16 0.9967 0.7436
MAJOR INDEXES Last %Chg Est P/E Description Jakarta Hang Seng Nikkei 225 Shanghai Kuala Lumpur Philipines Straits Times Bangkok SET Dow Jones FTSE 100
3637.4 22993.9 10370.5 2904.1 1505.2 4091.9 3139.9 1013.2 11533.2 5951.8
1.92 1.57 1.51 1.79 0.62 0.36 0.22 0.66 0.48 1.02
17.7 14.4 18.2 16.4 15.9 14.8 15.3 14.3 13.5 12.0
Indonesia Hong Kong Japan China Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand United States United Kingdom
HIGHLIGHTS Grup Djarum Tambah Saham Di BBCA Bukit Asam Transpacific Railway Dapat Pinjaman USD1 Miliar BNBR Emisi Equity Linked Notes APOL Kembali Default
MARKET VIEW Kemarin IHSG secara mengejutkan menguat tajam dan di tutup plus 68,64 poin di 3637,45 di pimpin oleh saham semua sektor terutama barang konsumsi, keuangan, tambang, aneka industri ditengah-tengah penguatan indek bursa global, kenaikan harga komoditas dan meredanya ketegangan Korea. Investor asing kemarin sebagai net buyer sebesar Rp 156 miliar. Hari ini secara teknikal kami perkirakan IHSG berfluktuasi menguat dengan potensi profit taking pada kisaran 3620 - 3657 dengan pertimbangan : indikator stochastic oscillator golden cross (33), st moving average : tren bearish, muncul candle semacam bullish engulfing dan kenaikan indek kemarin di ikuti dengan penurunan volume. Kemarin indek bursa Eropa menguat saat harga tembaga naik capai rekor. Kemarin Wall Street menguat dengan indek S&P500 capai level sebelum Lehman Brothers Holdings Co kolaps saat lebih baik dari perkiraan laba emiten dan aktivitas M&A memicu rasa optimis pelaku pasar. Pagi ini bursa Asia di buka menguat saat harga komoditas alami penguatan.
ARBITRAGE SHARES Last %Chg TLKM (US$/ADR) ISAT (US$/ADR) ANTM (AUD/receipt) BLTA (SGD/shr)
35.08 28.53 1.36 0.05
In IDR Stock Exchange
1.07 0.99 -
7931 5160 2452 345
New York New York Australia Singapore
ECONOMIC BRIEF GDP Growth (YoY%) Inflation (YoY%) BI Rate (%) JIBOR Time Deposit Int (avg) Lending Rate
1 mo 3 mo 1 mo 3 mo IDR USD
Jun-10 6.19 Oct-10 5.67 Prev Mo 6.50 6.27 6.72 6.55 6.60 15.45 6.92
Sep-10 5.82 Nov-10 6.33 Last 6.50 6.23 6.62 6.51 6.58 15.61 6.72
Source: Bloomberg LP
JCI last 5 days, source: Bloomberg LP
TECHNICAL PICKS Ticker
BDMN INCO INDF ITMG AKRA BLTA BTEL
S1
LAST
5600 5800 4450 4550 4425 4550 50000 51150 1570 1600 295 300 230 235
S2
6050 4675 4650 52300 1620 305 240
R2
RSI
STO
REC
6150 6300 4750 4800 4700 4775 53200 54100 1650 1670 310 320 245 250
R1
43 51 43 58 49 35 48
31 41 32 85 10 29 100
BUY BUY BUY BUY SELL SELL SELL
1
Morning Coffee
SUCORINVEST December 22, 2010
EXCERPT FROM THE NEWS Grup Djarum Tambah Saham Di BBCA…Grup Djarum menambah kepemilikan saham di BBCA (Rp6650) dengan membeli 515 juta lembar pada harga Rp6700/saham atau senilai total Rp3,45 triliun dari UBS Securities. Sehingga kepemilikan Djarum menjadi 50,24%. Pembelian di lakukan melalui dua anak perusahaan Grup Djarum yaitu PT Tricipta Mandhala Gumilang dan PT Caturguwiratna Sumapala, yang juga merupakan pemegang saham pengendali TOWR. Sebelumnya kedua anak perusahaan tersebut melepas 396,89 juta lembar saham TOWR pada harga Rp12.000/saham atau senilai total Rp4,76 triliun. Bisnis Indonesia, Bloomberg AZ : Sentimen positif. Saat ini saham BBCA diperdagangkan pada PER11K=17,18 x dan PBV11K=4,27 x (valuasi mahal). Bukit Asam Transpacific Railway Dapat Pinjaman USD1 Miliar…Anak perusahaan PTBA (Rp21700) dengan kepemilikan saham sebesar 10% yaitu PT Bukit Asam Transpacific Railway (BATR), akan memperoleh pendanaan proyek angkutan batu bara dari Sinosure (China Export and Credit Insurance, lembaga pembiayaan ,milik pemerintah Cina) senilai USD1 miliar. Pemegang saham BATR adalah PT Transpacific Railway Infrastructure (TRI) (80%), PTBA (10%) dan China Railway Group Limited (10%). Sedangkan TRI di miliki penuh oleh Grup Rajawali, yang di kendalikan oleh Peter Sondakh. PTBA berniat meningkatkan kepemilikan saham di BATR menjadi 30%. Bisnis Indonesia, Bloomberg AZ : Sentimen positif namun diperkirakan tak material dengan pertimbangan kepemilikan saham PTBA di BATR hanya minoritas. Saat ini saham PTBA diperdagangkan pada PER11K=14,72 x ; PBV11K=5,51 x dan EV/EBITDA11K=9,64 x (valuasi wajar). BNBR Emisi Equity Linked Notes…BNBR (Rp70) akan memanfaatkan dana emisi equity linked notes USD109 juta untuk refinancing sebagian utang kepada Ascention Ltd. BNBR akan memperpanjang jatuh tempo sisa utang dari 1 tahun menjadi 5 tahun. Bisnis Indonesia AZ : Sentimen netral. APOL Kembali Default…Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) kembali akan memanggil manajemen APOL (Rp120) setelah gagal bayar bunga obligasi APOL II ke-11. Wali Amanat juga diikutsertakan dalam diskusi tersebut, untuk mengetahui penyebab default bunga Rp 25,28 miliar. Pekan lalu, manajemen melalui Direkturnya, Ronald Nangol menyebut bahwa APOL tidak yakin akan kemampuannya membayar bunga ke-11 sebesar Rp 25,28 miliar, yang jatuh tempo di 18/12/2010. Detik Finance AZ : Sentimen negatif. Fokus : Restrukturisasi utang.
2
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee TRADING TAB
December 22, 2010
Market Activity Ticker
Prev
IHSG
3569
AALI
Price Chg
Last
S2
69 3637
3544
23650 1200 24850
Technical Study S1
R1
3591
R2
3663
STO RSI
BB
Relative Ratio
EMA MACD Fibo Classic
Tech. Score
PBV
P/E ‘10
P/E ‘11
BETA
3689
7
-
-
-
-
-
5
6.0
3.3
17.6
na
1.00
23400 24150 25300 25700
7
-
-
-
-
-
6
6.5
5.8
20.5
15.5
1.20
ADRO
2500
50 2550
2475
2500
2575
2625
6
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.5
4.4
28.4
15.2
0.95
AKRA
1640
-20 1620
1570
1600
1650
1670
-
-
-
-
2
-
3
2.5
2.6
18.5
14.6
0.97
2325
50 2375
2275
2325
2400
2425
6
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.5
2.6
14.7
12.5
1.67
50700 51600 53000 53500
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
4.5
16.3
14.1
1.52
ANTM ASII
51250 1200 52450
BBCA
6600
50 6650
6500
6550
6700
6800
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
5.0
19.7
17.2
0.92
BBNI
3675
50 3725
3600
3675
3800
3850
7
-
-
-
-
-
5
6.0
2.8
15.4
13.0
1.35
BBRI
10000
300 10300
9850 10100 10450 10550
7
-
-
-
-
-
5
6.0
3.9
14.1
11.4
1.14
BDMN
5650
400 6050
5600
7
-
-
9
-
-
6
7.3
2.9
17.3
13.9
1.57
BLTA
310
BMRI
6250
BNBR
69
BNGA
2000
BTEL
240
BUMI
2925
DEWA
74
-5
5800
6150
6300
305
300
300
310
320
-
-
7
-
-
-
4
5.5
0.5
na
16.9
1.25
200 6450
6150
6300
6550
6650
8
-
-
-
-
-
5
6.5
3.5
15.7
13.0
1.30
70
67
68
71
73
-
-
-
1
-
-
5
3.0
0.8
1.7
11.6
1.58
50 2050
1
1930
1990
2125
2175
-
-
-
-
2
-
5
3.5
3.7
24.6
21.2
0.88 1.05
240
225
235
245
245
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
1.3
60.5
45.5
100 3025
0
2900
2950
3050
3100
6
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.5
4.5
20.9
12.4
1.62
72
72
74
76
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
0.5
na
na
2.03
-1
73
ELTY
160
1
161
158
160
163
164
-
-
-
7
-
-
5
6.0
0.7
24.4
19.0
1.84
ENRG
126
2
128
125
126
129
131
8
-
-
-
-
-
5
6.5
0.9
48.1
13.9
1.89
INCO
4500
175 4675
4450
4550
4725
4800
8
-
-
-
-
-
6
7.0
3.3
13.3
12.6
1.93
INDF
4475
175 4650
4425
4525
4700
4775
7
-
-
-
-
-
6
6.5
3.5
12.6
11.1
1.13
INTP
16300
50 16350
16100 16200 16450 16600
-
-
-
-
8
-
5
6.5
4.9
17.7
14.6
1.27
ISAT
5100
100 5200
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
6.0
1.6
26.0
17.7
0.77
ITMG
5050
51000 1300 52300
JSMR
3275
25 3300
KLBF
3125
100 3225
LSIP
11450
250 11700
5100
5250
5350
50000 51150 53200 54100
-
-
-
-
7
-
6
6.5
9.1
21.4
13.1
1.49
3225
3275
3350
3375
6
7
-
-
-
-
5
6.0
3.0
17.7
15.3
0.96
3100
3175
3275
3300
7
-
-
-
-
-
5
6.0
6.1
25.4
20.9
0.89
11350 11500 11800 11950
-
-
-
-
4
-
5
4.5
3.8
16.5
13.2
1.70
MEDC
3125
0 3125
3075
3100
3175
3225
7
7
-
-
-
-
5
6.3
1.4
24.7
23.0
1.22
PGAS
4250
50 4300
4150
4225
4375
4450
6
-
-
8
4
-
5
5.8
8.5
15.6
13.7
1.10
PTBA
21300
400 21700
SGRO
3025
0 3025
21150 21400 21850 22050 2975
3000
3050
3075
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
8.5
23.2
14.4
1.31
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
3.0
15.3
13.1
1.08
SMCB
2275
25 2300
2225
2250
2325
2375
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
4.5
18.8
14.9
1.25
SMGR
9300
100 9400
9100
9250
9500
9600
6
-
7
-
-
-
5
6.0
5.0
15.2
13.2
0.84
TINS
2675
25 2700
2625
2650
2725
2775
6
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.5
3.6
15.8
12.0
1.79
TLKM
7850
150 8000
7750
7900
8100
8150
-
-
-
-
8
-
5
6.5
3.7
13.5
12.3
0.74
375
380
390
UNSP
385
395
6
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.5
0.7
18.7
11.2
1.83
UNTR
22900
350 23250
22300 22800 23600 23900
6
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.5
4.9
19.3
15.8
1.48
UNVR
15650
250 15900
15300 15600 16150 16400
8
-
-
-
-
-
5
6.5
30.5
33.8
29.1
0.34
WIKA
670
6
-
-
-
-
8
5
6.3
2.6
15.8
12.8
0.80
Prev Last S1, S2 R1, R2 STO RSI
: : : : : :
0
40
385
710
660
harga saham hari sebelumnya harga saham penutupan kemarin batas support batas resistance Stochastic Oscillator 14 hari (14:3:3) Relative Strength Index 14 hari
680
720
BB EMA MACD Fibo Classic
: : : : :
740
Bollinger Band 20 hari Exponential Moving Average 24, 90, 240 hari MACD (26:12:9) Fibonacci Retracement Nilai yang diberikan analis teknikal berdasar kan analisa klasik
Tech Score : Nilai rata-rata indikator teknikal & analisa klasik PBV : Price Book Value P/E10 ‘11 : Price Earning Ratio (P/E) tahun 2010 dan 2011 berdasarkan Bloomberg Est. consensus Beta : Koefisien pembanding pergerakan saham dengan pergerakan pasar (IHSG)
Penjelasan Tech Score: Strong Buy 9 8
Buy 7
6
Neutral 5
Sell 4
3
Strong Sell 2 1
3
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 22, 2010
WHAT TO WATCH Series
Maturity
Tenor year
Coupon %
Price
YTM %
Yield Curve %
Spread bps
Valuation
FR0015
15-Feb-11
0.15
13.40
101.04
5.32
3.81
150.87
BUY
FR0016
15-Aug-11
0.65
13.45
104.58
5.87
5.33
53.51
BUY
FR0022
15-Sep-11
0.73
12.00
104.60
5.26
5.46
(19.92)
SELL
FR0025
15-Oct-11
0.81
10.00
103.41
5.25
5.58
(33.01)
SELL
FR0017
15-Jan-12
1.07
13.15
107.08
5.99
5.86
13.23
BUY
FR0018
15-Jul-12
1.56
13.18
110.04
6.17
6.26
(8.92)
SELL
FR0023
15-Dec-12
1.98
11.00
108.43
6.27
6.51
(23.67)
SELL
FR0033
15-Mar-13
2.23
12.50
112.43
6.30
6.63
(32.69)
SELL
FR0019
15-Jun-13
2.48
14.25
117.66
6.34
6.74
(40.21)
SELL
FR0049
15-Sep-13
2.73
9.00
106.41
6.32
6.84
(52.72)
SELL
FR0020
15-Dec-13
2.98
14.28
120.49
6.49
6.93
(44.46)
SELL
FR0051
15-May-14
3.39
11.25
113.69
6.60
7.07
(46.82)
SELL
FR0026
15-Oct-14
3.81
11.00
113.81
6.74
7.19
(45.20)
SELL
FR0027
15-Jun-15
4.48
9.50
109.65
6.90
7.36
(45.77)
SELL
FR0030
15-May-16
5.40
10.75
115.32
7.21
7.56
(34.83)
SELL
FR0028
15-Jul-17
6.56
10.00
112.53
7.49
7.76
(27.03)
SELL
FR0032
15-Jul-18
7.56
15.00
141.51
7.62
7.91
(28.58)
SELL
FR0038
15-Aug-18
7.65
11.60
121.87
7.70
7.92
(22.19)
SELL
FR0048
15-Sep-18
7.73
9.00
107.06
7.71
7.93
(21.86)
SELL SELL
FR0036
15-Sep-19
8.73
11.50
122.20
7.87
8.06
(18.79)
FR0031
15-Nov-20
9.90
11.00
119.38
8.06
8.19
(13.09)
SELL
FR0034
15-Jun-21
10.48
12.80
131.75
8.17
8.25
(8.17)
SELL
FR0035
15-Jun-22
11.48
12.90
132.60
8.36
8.34
1.75
indifferent
FR0043
15-Jul-22
11.56
10.25
113.26
8.38
8.35
2.77
indifferent
FR0046
15-Jul-23
12.56
9.50
106.61
8.58
8.44
13.69
BUY
FR0039
15-Aug-23
12.65
11.75
123.59
8.59
8.45
14.58
BUY
FR0044
15-Sep-24
13.73
10.00
108.97
8.80
8.53
27.17
BUY
FR0040
15-Sep-25
14.73
11.00
115.00
9.07
8.61
46.20
BUY
FR0037
15-Sep-26
15.73
12.00
123.27
9.12
8.67
44.71
BUY
FR0042
15-Jul-27
16.56
10.25
108.36
9.20
8.73
47.36
BUY
FR0047
15-Feb-28
17.15
10.00
105.85
9.26
8.76
49.29
BUY
FR0052
15-Aug-30
19.65
10.50
108.80
9.41
8.91
50.35
BUY
FR0045
15-May-37
26.40
9.75
99.57
9.74
9.22
52.72
BUY
FR0050
15-Jul-38
27.56
10.50
106.50
9.76
9.26
50.10
BUY
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research BUY : Jika YTM berada di atas Yield Curve
SELL :
Jika YTM berada di bawah Yield Curve
Yield Curve
$
%& $ '&
Yield (%)
Yield (%)
indifferent : Jika jarak keduanya kurang dari 5 bps
# "
" (
)*
+ PRQWK
Tenor (year)
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Tenor (year)
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
4
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 22, 2010
,-#
.-
/0-
1&-
/&-
2-
"
"
#
#
"
"
,-
15-Aug-30 15-Sep-25 15-Sep-26 15-May-16 15-Sep-16
Top Volume
109.15 115.75 99.15 115.75 101.00
Maturity
Price
FR0052 15-Aug-30 FR0040 15-Sep-25 FR0030 15-May-16 GBRB0022NvBV 25-Mar-16 GBRB0021NvBV 25-Nov-15
69 21 12 11 5
!
!(-#
3 -#
Frequency Volume
109.15 115.75 115.75 101.20 101.00
69 21 11 1 1
Corporate Bonds Maturity Price
Top Active
1738 631 94 475 71
PNBN04SB TLKM02A JMPD13R BNGA01SB BCAF03D
9-Nov-17 6-Jul-15 21-Jun-17 8-Jul-17 23-Mar-14
Top Volume
Maturity
PNBN04SB BNGA01SB TLKM02A BSDE02 BCAF03D
9-Nov-17 8-Jul-17 6-Jul-15 20-Oct-11 23-Mar-14
1738 631 475 401 233
Source: IDX
!(-
3 -
100.30 103.80 105.00 103.25 102.00
Price 100.30 103.25 103.80 104.00 102.00
Frequency Volume 8 3 3 2 2
67 16 6 17 10
Frequency Volume 8 2 3 1 2
67 17 16 14 10
Source: IDX
"
!
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Government Bonds Maturity Price Frequency Volume
FR0052 FR0040 FR0056 FR0030 FR0055
3 -"
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Top Active
!
+
-
-
Source: Bloomberg
`
3 -"
!(-#
3 -#
!(-
3 -
Source: Bloomberg
5
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 22, 2010
#$ 45
#$ 45
.-
/0-
1&-
/&-
2-
1-
,-
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
!-
!(-
1&-
%0-
3 -
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
#$ 45
#$ 45
`
`
,-#
.-
/0-
1&-
/&-
2-
,-#
,-
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
.-
/0-
1&-
/&-
2-
,-
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
%#$ 45
$ #$ 45
,-#
.-
/0-
1&-
/&-
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Indonesia Malaysia China Russia Peru Brazil
Rating S&P Moody’s BB AA+ BBB BBBBBB-
Ba2 A3 A1 Baa1 Baa3 Baa3
2-
,-
,-#
/0-
1&-
/&-
2-
,-
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Fitch
Risk Premium Last Prev Month
Inflation Last Prev Month
BB+ AA+ BBB BBBBBB-
1.61 0.62 0.60 1.77 1.38 1.21
6.33 2.00 5.10 8.10 2.22 5.63
1.62 0.65 1.01 2.22 1.50 1.08
.-
5.67 1.80 4.40 7.50 2.10 5.20
Central Bank Rate Last Prev Month Description 6.50 2.75 5.56 7.75 3.00 10.75
6.50 2.75 5.56 7.75 3.00 10.75
Bank Indonesia Reference Rate BNM Spot Reference Central Bank of China Base Rate Russia Interbank Offered Rate 3Mo Peru Central Bank Reference Rate Brazil Central Bank Reference Rate
Source: Bloomberg
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SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 22, 2010
AGENDA November - December 2010 20
21
MON
FASW - Pubex
TUE
22
WED
TLKM - Div Cum
ESTI - Pubex
23
THU
24
FRI
31
FRI
TLKM - Div Ex MPPA - Div Cum
December 2010 27
MON
28
TUE
29
WED
30
THU
MPPA - Div Ex
7
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 22, 2010
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