SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 16, 2010 COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES Last Oil (USD/bbl) Gas (USD/MMBtu) Nickel (USD/Mt) Tins (USD/Mt) Copper (USD/Mt) Gold (USD/Oz) Coal (USD/Mt) CPO (MYR/Mt) Rubber (USD/kg) IDR SGD/USD HKD/USD JPY/USD EUR/USD MYR/USD PHP/USD THB/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD
88.19 4.24 24,550 25,825 9,095 1,380.8 110.50 3,669.0 539.5 9023 1.3158 7.7763 84.24 1.3227 3.137 43.96 30.13 0.9871 0.7397
%Chg
Description
0.12 (0.02) 0.20 (1.62) (0.76) (1.07) (0.23) (0.30) 0.06 0.80 0.02 0.38 (0.95) 0.13 0.07 0.30 (0.80) (1.32)
WTI Crude Future Natural Gas Future LME 3-mo forward LME 3-mo forward LME 3-mo forward Golds spot Generic 1st ‘IV’ Future Malaysian 3-mo Future S’pore Ribbed Smoked Indonesian Rupiah Singapore Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Japanese Yen Euro Malaysian Ringgit Philippines Peso Thailand Bath Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar
MAJOR INDEXES Last %Chg Est P/E Description Jakarta Hang Seng Nikkei 225 Shanghai Kuala Lumpur Philipines Straits Times Bangkok SET Dow Jones FTSE 100
3658.3 22975.4 10309.8 2911.4 1509.1 4089.8 3147.2 1035.5 11457.5 5882.2
(0.85) (1.95) (0.07) (0.54) (0.10) (1.41) (0.94) (0.19) (0.17) (0.15)
17.8 14.4 18.1 16.5 16.0 14.9 15.3 14.6 13.4 11.8
Indonesia Hong Kong Japan China Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand United States United Kingdom
HIGHLIGHTS Cargill Beli Saham SOBI Pada Harga Rp3500/Saham AISA Beli Pabrik Beras, Lahan Kebun milik grup Wilmar KLBF Tambah Capex 2011 FREN Eksekusi Emisi Saham Baru Rp100 Miliar
MARKET VIEW Kemarin IHSG melemah berfluktuasi (sempat minus 76 poin) dan di tutup minus 31,352 poin di 3658,31 di pimpin oleh saham semua sektor terutama perkebunan, keuangan, barang konsumsi ditengah-tengah keraguan-raguan pelaku pasar akan kekuatan pemulihan ekonomi global setelah laporan data ekonomi Jepang, AS dan kekhawatiran penurunan peringkat utang Spanyol. Investor asing kemarin sebagai net seller sebesar Rp 1091 miliar. Hari ini secara teknikal kami perkirakan IHSG berfluktuasi melemah pada kisaran 3633 - 3677 dengan pertimbangan : empat indikator teknikal bergerak turun, indikator stochastic oscillator bergerak turun (17), weekly macd menjadi dead cross (dari neutral) dan penurunan indek kemarin di ikuti dengan peningkatan volume. Kemarin indek bursa Eropa melemah, dipimpin oleh saham bank setelah Moody’s berkata akan downgrade peringkat utang Spanyol. Kemarin Wall Street melemah, dipimpin oleh saham bank ditengah-tengah kekhawatiran meningkatnya suku bunga pinjaman akan ganggu proses pemnulihan ekonomi. Pagi ini bursa Asia di buka melemah saat harga logam turun dan kekhawatiran valuasi mahal.
ARBITRAGE SHARES Last %Chg TLKM (US$/ADR) ISAT (US$/ADR) ANTM (AUD/receipt) BLTA (SGD/shr)
In IDR Stock Exchange
34.61 (0.26) 7807 New York 30.23 (2.89) 5455 New York 1.36 2426 Australia 0.05 (10.00) 309 Singapore
ECONOMIC BRIEF GDP Growth (YoY%) Inflation (YoY%) BI Rate (%) JIBOR Time Deposit Int (avg) Lending Rate
1 mo 3 mo 1 mo 3 mo IDR USD
Jun-10 6.19 Oct-10 5.67 Prev Mo 6.50 6.30 6.70 6.53 6.60 15.92 6.94
Sep-10 5.82 Nov-10 6.33 Last 6.50 6.22 6.63 6.54 6.62 15.36 6.89
Source: Bloomberg LP
JCI last 5 days, source: Bloomberg LP
TECHNICAL PICKS Ticker
SMCB UNSP TLKM INDF ISAT PTBA WIKA
S1
LAST
2350 2400 380 390 7600 7700 4550 4600 5100 5250 19700 20200 680 690
S2
2425 395 7800 4650 5450 20700 700
R2
RSI
STO
REC
2450 2500 405 410 7850 7900 4700 4725 5600 5800 21300 21900 710 720
R1
55 56 36 37 43 48 58
69 50 20 27 40 18 95
BUY BUY HOLD SELL SELL SELL SELL
1
Morning Coffee
SUCORINVEST December 16, 2010
EXCERPT FROM THE NEWS Cargill Beli Saham SOBI Pada Harga Rp3500/Saham…Cargill International Luxembourg 6 S.a.r.l telah menandatangani perjanjian pembelian sebanyak 777.227.670 lembar atau 85,01% saham SOBI (Rp3350) milik AKRA (Rp1770) dan UOB Kay Hian Pte Ltd senilai USD300 juta atau setara Rp3500/saham. Khusus pembelian dari AKRA masih akan menunggu persetujuan pemegang saham. Cargill membeli semua saham SOBI milik AKRA sebanyak 629.166.945 lembar atau setara 68,82%. Sehingga AKRA akan mengantongi dana sebesar 2,2 triliun atau sebesar Rep580/saham. Dan AKRA akan fokus ke bisnis energi, distribusi kimia dan infrastruktur logistik. Sedangkan dari UOB, Cargill membeli saham SOBI sebanyak 148.060.725 lembar. Bisnis Indonesia, Bloomberg AZ : Sentimen positif dengan pertimbangan harga akuisisi premium 4,55% dari harga pasar, spekulasi tender offer pada harga minimal Rp3500/saham dan Cargill merupakan perusahaan global terkemuka. Saat ini saham SOBI diperdagangkan pada PER11K=18,21 x ; PBV11K=3,55 x dan EV/EBITDA11K=10,44 x (valuasi mahal). Sedangkan saham AKRA diperdagangkan pada PER11K=15,53 x ; PBV11K=2,38 x dan EV/EBITDA11K=9,23 x (valuasi wajar). Jika AKRA membagi separoh dana hasil penjualan saham SOBI sebagai deviden khusus, maka deviden yield sekitar 16%. AISA Beli Pabrik Beras, Lahan Kebun milik grup Wilmar…AISA (Rp790) mendapatkan pinjaman bank sebesar Rp770 miliar bertenor 6 – 7 tahun dan bersuku bunga 6% dari bank asing untuk membiayai transaksi akuisisi lahan perkebunan seluas 12.000 ha di Sumatera milik PT Jatim Raya Perkasa, unit usaha kelompok Wilmar. Sebesar 70% dana akuisisi berasal dari pinjaman bank dan sisanya sebesar 30% akan di biayai dengan obligasi konversi. Selain itu AISA juga telah membeli pabrik beras di Karawang, Jawa Barat milik PT Jatisari Srirejeki (JS) senilai Rp210 miliar. JS di miliki oleh Ganda Sitorus, kerabat keluarga pengendali grup Wilmar. JS akan menerima 14% saham AISA sebagai pembayaran transaksi ini. Bisnis Indonesia AZ : Sentimen positif. Fokus : Isu harga konversi saham terkait pembelian pabrik beras adalah Rp850-Rp900/saham. KLBF Tambah Capex 2011…KLBF (Rp3350) meningkatkan anggaran capex tahun depan dari Rp550 miliar menjadi Rp650 miliar menyusul rencana pembangunan satu pabrik baru di Cikarang atau Tangerang. Bisnis Indonesia, Bloomberg AZ : Sentimen positif. Saat ini saham KLBF diperdagangkan pada PER11K=21,61 x ; PBV11K=5,01 x dan EV/EBITDA11K=13,93 x (valuasi sangat mahal). FREN Eksekusi Emisi Saham Baru Rp100 Miliar…FREN (Rp50) berencana mengeksekusi opsi penerbitan saham konversi tahap pertama senilai Rp100 miliar dari nilai total obligasi konversi sebesar Rp3,8 triliun pada tahun depan. Bisnis Indonesia AZ : Sentimen netral. Fokus : Aliansi dengan Smart Telecom.
2
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee TRADING TAB
December 16, 2010
Market Activity Ticker
Prev
IHSG
3690
AALI
Price Chg
Last
S2
-31 3658
3577
26200 -950 25250
Technical Study S1
R1
3618
R2
3695
STO RSI
BB
Relative Ratio
EMA MACD Fibo Classic
Tech. Score
PBV
P/E ‘10
P/E ‘11
BETA
3732
-
-
-
-
2
-
4
3.0
3.4
17.8
na
1.00
23350 24300 26200 27150
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
5.9
20.9
15.7
1.15
ADRO
2550
0 2550
2475
2525
2575
2575
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
4.4
28.3
15.0
0.90
AKRA
1740
30 1770
1640
1710
1830
1880
-
3
-
-
-
-
5
4.0
2.8
20.3
15.5
0.96
ANTM
2450
-75 2375
2325
2350
2425
2475
4
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
2.6
14.7
12.6
1.68
ASII
52800
0 52800
51450 52150 53150 53450
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
4.5
16.5
14.3
1.53
BBCA
6500
0 6500
6200
6350
6600
6700
6
-
-
-
8
-
5
6.3
4.9
19.3
16.8
0.95
BBNI
3875
-75 3800
3625
3700
3875
3975
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
2.9
15.7
13.3
1.36
BBRI
10700
50 10750
10500 10650 10850 10900
BDMN
6250 -150 6100
BLTA
315
BMRI
5900
6300
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
4.1
14.7
11.9
1.13
6500
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
2.9
17.5
14.0
1.53
315
300
310
325
330
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
0.5
na
17.4
1.30
6700 -100 6600
6450
6500
6700
6850
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
3.5
16.0
13.2
1.31
BNBR
69
BNGA
2175
BTEL
240
BUMI
2975
DEWA
74
0
5700
69
65
67
71
73
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
0.8
1.6
11.5
1.58
0 2175
0
2050
2100
2200
2250
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
4.0
26.1
22.5
0.85 1.07
235
230
230
235
240
4
-
-
-
-
-
5
4.5
1.3
59.3
44.6
-25 2950
-5
2850
2900
3000
3050
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
4.4
20.4
12.1
1.64
71
73
76
77
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
0.5
na
na
2.07
1
75
ELTY
157
6
163
155
159
166
169
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
0.7
22.6
17.7
1.90
ENRG
132
-2
130
124
127
133
136
-
-
-
-
2
-
5
3.5
0.9
48.9
14.1
1.92
INCO
4675
-25 4650
4575
4600
4675
4725
-
-
-
-
8
-
5
6.5
3.3
13.5
12.9
1.95
INDF
4675
-25 4650
4575
4600
4675
4725
-
-
-
-
3
-
3
3.0
3.5
15.5
13.7
1.13
15550 15750 16150 16350
INTP
16150 -200 15950
ISAT
5650 -200 5450
ITMG
50700
300 51000
JSMR
3475
-50 3425
KLBF
3525 -175 3350
LSIP
6
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.5
4.8
17.2
14.2
1.31
5800
-
-
-
-
3
-
3
3.0
1.7
27.2
18.5
0.72
49650 50350 51550 52050
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
8.9
20.7
12.9
1.52
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
3.1
18.4
15.9
0.94
5100
5250
5600
3350
3375
3475
3550
3125
3250
3500
3625
-
-
-
-
2
-
4
3.0
6.3
26.4
21.8
0.81
11500 11750 12200 12400
-
-
-
-
2
-
4
3.0
3.9
16.9
13.6
1.70
12050
-50 12000
MEDC
3250
-25 3225
3075
3150
3300
3375
4
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
1.5
25.5
22.3
1.22
PGAS
4375
-75 4300
4075
4175
4375
4475
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
8.5
15.6
13.7
1.12
19700 20200 21300 21900
PTBA
21150 -450 20700
SGRO
3050
-50 3000
2900
2950
3050
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
8.1
22.1
14.1
1.32
3100
-
-
-
-
2
-
5
3.5
2.9
15.2
13.0
1.10
SMCB
2425
0 2425
2350
2375
2450
2500
6
-
-
-
-
-
6
6.0
4.7
19.7
15.6
1.26
SMGR
9300
100 9400
9250
9300
9450
9550
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
5.0
15.1
13.2
0.86
TINS
2800 -100 2700
2575
2625
2775
2875
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.0
3.6
15.2
11.7
1.80
TLKM
7800
7600
7700
7850
7900
7
-
-
-
-
-
5
6.0
3.6
13.1
12.0
0.76
380
390
405
UNSP
395
UNTR
24000
UNVR
15800
WIKA
710
Prev Last S1, S2 R1, R2 STO RSI
: : : : : :
0 7800
410
-
-
-
-
7
-
6
6.5
0.7
19.2
11.4
1.87
-50 23950
0
23450 23700 24100 24250
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
5.1
19.8
16.5
1.51
0 15800
15150 15450 16000 16250
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5.0
30.3
33.6
28.9
0.30
3
-
-
-
-
-
4
3.5
2.6
15.6
12.6
0.80
-10
395
700
680
harga saham hari sebelumnya harga saham penutupan kemarin batas support batas resistance Stochastic Oscillator 14 hari (14:3:3) Relative Strength Index 14 hari
690
710
BB EMA MACD Fibo Classic
: : : : :
720
Bollinger Band 20 hari Exponential Moving Average 24, 90, 240 hari MACD (26:12:9) Fibonacci Retracement Nilai yang diberikan analis teknikal berdasar kan analisa klasik
Tech Score : Nilai rata-rata indikator teknikal & analisa klasik PBV : Price Book Value P/E09 ‘10 : Price Earning Ratio (P/E) tahun 2010 dan 2011 berdasarkan Bloomberg Est. consensus Beta : Koefisien pembanding pergerakan saham dengan pergerakan pasar (IHSG)
Penjelasan Tech Score: Strong Buy 9 8
Buy 7
6
Neutral 5
Sell 4
3
Strong Sell 2 1
3
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 16, 2010
WHAT TO WATCH Series
Maturity
Tenor year
Coupon %
Price
YTM %
Yield Curve %
Spread bps
Valuation
FR0015
15-Feb-11
0.17
13.40
101.18
5.34
3.66
167.64
BUY
FR0016
15-Aug-11
0.66
13.45
104.98
5.42
5.12
29.83
BUY
(28.83)
SELL
FR0022
15-Sep-11
0.75
12.00
104.80
4.96
5.25
FR0025
15-Oct-11
0.83
10.00
103.36
5.41
5.36
FR0017
15-Jan-12
1.08
13.15
107.69
5.54
5.64
(10.02)
SELL
5.35
BUY
FR0018
15-Jul-12
1.58
13.18
110.76
5.82
6.04
(22.11)
SELL
FR0023
15-Dec-12
2.00
11.00
108.83
6.14
6.29
(14.90)
SELL
FR0033
15-Mar-13
2.25
12.50
114.25
5.51
6.41
(90.76)
SELL
FR0019
15-Jun-13
2.50
14.25
117.98
6.25
6.53
(27.55)
SELL
FR0049
15-Sep-13
2.75
9.00
106.42
6.33
6.63
(29.83)
SELL
FR0020
15-Dec-13
3.00
14.28
120.88
6.41
6.72
(30.90)
SELL
FR0051
15-May-14
3.41
11.25
113.97
6.53
6.86
(32.14)
SELL
FR0026
15-Oct-14
3.83
11.00
115.00
6.43
6.98
(55.14)
SELL
FR0027
15-Jun-15
4.50
9.50
110.75
6.63
7.15
(52.27)
SELL
FR0030
15-May-16
5.41
10.75
115.83
7.12
7.34
(22.33)
SELL
FR0028
15-Jul-17
6.58
10.00
114.25
7.19
7.55
(36.04)
SELL
FR0032
15-Jul-18
7.58
15.00
143.04
7.42
7.70
(27.98)
SELL
FR0038
15-Aug-18
7.66
11.60
122.96
7.55
7.71
(16.34)
SELL
FR0048
15-Sep-18
7.75
9.00
108.50
7.49
7.72
(23.79)
SELL
FR0036
15-Sep-19
8.75
11.50
122.92
7.78
7.85
(6.94)
SELL
FR0031
15-Nov-20
9.92
11.00
121.80
7.75
7.98
(23.74)
SELL
FR0034
15-Jun-21
10.50
12.80
134.82
7.83
8.04
(21.68)
FR0035
15-Jun-22
11.50
12.90
134.33
8.19
8.14
FR0043
15-Jul-22
11.58
10.25
114.50
8.25
FR0046
15-Jul-23
12.58
9.50
108.25
8.39
FR0039
15-Aug-23
12.66
11.75
124.65
8.49
8.24
SELL
4.91
indifferent
8.15
9.71
BUY
8.24
15.49
BUY
24.82
BUY
FR0044
15-Sep-24
13.75
10.00
109.50
8.76
8.33
43.16
BUY
FR0040
15-Sep-25
14.75
11.00
117.50
8.82
8.40
41.61
BUY
FR0037
15-Sep-26
15.75
12.00
125.00
8.97
8.47
49.62
BUY
FR0042
15-Jul-27
16.58
10.25
109.75
9.07
8.53
54.20
BUY
FR0047
15-Feb-28
17.17
10.00
107.27
9.11
8.57
54.25
BUY
FR0052
15-Aug-30
19.66
10.50
111.42
9.19
8.71
48.05
BUY
FR0045
15-May-37
26.41
9.75
103.00
9.41
9.02
39.14
BUY
FR0050
15-Jul-38
27.58
10.50
110.50
9.40
9.07
33.37
BUY
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research BUY : Jika YTM berada di atas Yield Curve
SELL :
Jika YTM berada di bawah Yield Curve
Yield Curve
%
&'!" % ('!"
Yield (%)
Yield (%)
indifferent : Jika jarak keduanya kurang dari 5 bps
)
*+
, PRQWK
$
$
Tenor (year)
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Tenor (year)
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
4
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 16, 2010
-
.
/0!
1'
/'
2
$
$
$
-
47710 45915 48044 42505 42628
Top Volume
111.4 117.25 103 116.51 101
Maturity
FR0052 FR0040 FR0030 FR0027 FR0055
Price
47710 45915 42505 42170 42628
46 21 19 8 6
!" #
#)
3"
TLKM02A ISAT05B SOFN04B BBTN13A JMPD14JM10
Frequency Volume
111.40 117.25 116.51 111.00 101.00
46 21 8 5 6
Corporate Bonds Maturity Price
Top Active
1062 838 161 401 197
42191 42884 41210 41058 44116
103.01 107.25 100.0817 104.45 102.6
Top Volume
Maturity
Price
SOFN04B TLKM02A INDF05 TLKM02B SOFN04C
41210 42191 41808 44018 41575
100.0817 103.01 107.11 105.01 100.3214
1062 838 401 222 197
Source: IDX
#)
3"
Frequency Volume 4 4 3 3 2
82 21 114 16 10
Frequency Volume 3 4 2 2 2
114 82 75 63 53
Source: IDX
"
!
$
$
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Government Bonds Maturity Price Frequency Volume
FR0052 FR0040 FR0054 FR0030 FR0055
$
3"
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Top Active
!" #
,
$
Source: Bloomberg
`
3"
#)
3"
#)
3"
Source: Bloomberg
5
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 16, 2010
#$ 45
#$ 45
$
1
#!
#)
1'
&0
1
3"
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
#!
#)
1'
&0
3"
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
#$ 45
#$ 45
$
`
`
3"
1
#!
#)
1'
&0
3"
3"
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
1
#!
#)
1'
&0
3"
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
%#$ 45
$ #$ 45
$
-
.
/0!
1'
/'
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Indonesia Malaysia China Russia Peru Brazil
Rating S&P Moody’s BB AA+ BBB BBBBBB-
Ba2 A3 A1 Baa1 Baa3 Baa3
2
-
-
/0!
1'
/'
2
-
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research
Fitch
Risk Premium Last Prev Month
Inflation Last Prev Month
BB+ AA+ BBB BBBBBB-
1.03 0.84 1.01 1.70 1.78 1.09
6.33 2.00 5.10 8.10 2.22 5.63
1.65 0.74 1.05 2.12 1.43 0.91
.
5.67 1.80 4.40 7.50 2.10 5.20
Central Bank Rate Last Prev Month Description 6.50 2.75 5.56 7.75 3.00 10.75
6.50 2.75 5.56 7.75 3.00 10.75
Bank Indonesia Reference Rate BNM Spot Reference Central Bank of China Base Rate Russia Interbank Offered Rate 3Mo Peru Central Bank Reference Rate Brazil Central Bank Reference Rate
Source: Bloomberg
6
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 16, 2010
AGENDA November - December 2010 13
14
MON
KLBV Pubex
TUE
15
WED
16
THU
FOMC Meeting
17
FRI
MDRN Pubex SMRA Pubex
December 2010 20
MON
FASW - Pubex
21 ESTI - Pubex
TUE
22
WED
TLKM - Div Cum
23
THU
24
FRI
TLKM - Div Ex MPPA - Div Cum
7
SUCORINVEST
Morning Coffee
December 16, 2010
PT SUCORINVEST CENTRAL GANI Head Office: Equity Tower 31st floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53 Jakarta 12190 phone: 62 21 2996 0999 fax: 62 21 5797 3938 www.sucorinvest.com Branch Office: SURABAYA Jl. Trunojoyo 67 Surabaya 60264 ph: 031 563 3720 fax: 031 563 3710
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