SUCORINVEST. Morning Coffee HIGHLIGHTS MARKET VIEW TECHNICAL PICKS

SUCORINVEST

Morning Coffee

November 2, 2011 COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES Last Oil (USD/bbl) Gas (USD/MMBtu) Nickel (USD/Mt) Tins (USD/Mt) Copper (USD/Mt) Gold (USD/Oz) Coal (USD/Mt) CPO (MYR/Mt) Rubber (JPY/kg) IDR SGD/USD HKD/USD JPY/USD EUR/USD MYR/USD PHP/USD THB/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

91.05 3.77 18,600 21,775 7,730 1,717.8 117.65 2,923.0 289.8 8945 1.2794 7.7716 78.28 1.3671 3.1505 42.928 30.91 1.0286 0.7918

%Chg

Description

(1.24) (0.21) (4.98) (1.02) (3.25) (0.12) (0.72) (0.51) (2.69) 1.04 0.33 0.01 (0.11) (0.23) 0.87 0.64 0.03 (0.42) (0.43)

WTI Crude Future Natural Gas Future LME 3-mo forward LME 3-mo forward LME 3-mo forward Golds spot Newcastle Future Malaysian 3-mo Future Tokyo Ribbed Smoked Indonesian Rupiah Singapore Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Japanese Yen Euro Malaysian Ringgit Philippines Peso Thailand Bath Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar

MAJOR INDEXES Last %Chg Est P/E Description Jakarta Hang Seng Nikkei 225 Shanghai Kuala Lumpur Philipines Straits Times Bangkok SET Dow Jones FTSE 100

3685.0 19370.0 8835.5 2470.0 1475.6 4333.7 2789.4 956.6 11658.0 5421.6

(2.79) (2.49) (1.70) 0.07 (1.09) 1.55 (2.33) (1.86) (2.48) (2.21)

14.6 10.5 14.9 11.5 14.3 14.1 12.9 11.0 11.9 9.8

Indonesia Hong Kong Japan China Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand United States United Kingdom

HIGHLIGHTS BORN Beli Saham Bumi Plc Dengan Harga Lebih Mahal APOL Lolos Gugatan Pailit AISA Aliansi Dengan Bunge Agribusiness Singapore Atlas Resources Kurangi Saham IPO

MARKET VIEW Kemarin IHSG anjlok dibawah angka 3700 dan ditutup minus 105,84 poin pada 3685,01 ; dipimpin oleh saham semua sektor di tengah - tengah kekhawatiran prospek ekonomi global setelah kebangkrutan MF Global Holdings Ltd, index manufaktur China turun ke level terendah dalam 3 tahun dan kekhawatiran Yunani default. Investor asing kemarin sebagai net seller sebesar Rp 59 miliar. Hari ini secara teknikal kami perkirakan IHSG berfluktuasi melemah pada kisaran 3594 - 3730 dengan pertimbangan : tiga dari empat indikator teknikal bergerak turun, indikator klinger oscillator dead cross, menguji candle 3 black crows, st mov avg : consolidation / bullish, lt mov avg : bearish consolidation / bearish consolidation dan penurunan index kemarin diikuti dengan peningkatan volume. Kemarin index bursa Eropa ditutup melemah setelah PM Papandreou berjanji membuat kesepakatan bailout Uni Eropa menjadi referendum. Kemarin index bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah hampir 3% saat pelaku pasar khawatir Yunani default jika dalam referendum pemilik suara menolak kesepakatan bailout Uni Eropa. Pagi ini bursa Asia dibuka melemah sekitar 2% saat pelaku pasar khawatir Yunani akan default dan setelah index manufaktur di AS secara mengejutkan turun dibandingkan periode sebelumnya.

ARBITRAGE SHARES Last %Chg TLKM (US$/ADR) ISAT (US$/ADR) ANTM (AUD/receipt) BLTA (SGD/shr)

In IDR Stock Exchange

32.92 (4.05) 7362 New York 29.39 (1.80) 5258 New York 1.25 2318 Australia 0.03 (6.90) 189 Singapore

ECONOMIC BRIEF GDP Growth (YoY%) Inflation (YoY%) BI Rate (%) JIBOR Time Deposit Int (avg) Lending Rate

1 mo 3 mo 1 mo 3 mo IDR USD

Mar-11 6.47 Jun-11 4.61 Prev Mo 6.75 6.60 6.98 6.51 6.59 14.72 6.71

Jun-11 6.49 Jul-11 4.42 Last 6.50 5.44 5.75 6.43 6.51 14.95 6.59

Source: Bloomberg LP

JCI last 5 days, source: Bloomberg LP

TECHNICAL PICKS Ticker

INCO INTP ITMG PTBA SMCB UNSP

S2

S1

LAST

3375 3425 14600 14900 42300 42900 16900 17350 1860 1880 260 270

3500 15250 43550 17750 1910 280

See Technical Charts on Page 3

R1

R2

RSI

STO

REC

3600 3725 15900 16600 44500 45500 18350 18900 1940 1980 295 310

56 55 56 54 55 43

80 76 84 69 73 47

SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL

1

Morning Coffee

SUCORINVEST November 2, 2011

EXCERPT FROM THE NEWS BORN Beli Saham Bumi Plc Dengan Harga Lebih Mahal…BORN (Rp870) berencana membeli 23,8% saham Bumi Plc dari Grup Bakrie senilai USD1 miliar atau pada harga 10,91 pound sterling atau premium 48,44% dari harga pasar saham Bumi Plc sebesar 7,35 pound sterling. BORN, yang dikendalikan oleh Samin Tan, membeli saham tersebut dengan pinjaman bertenor 5 tahun dari Standard Chartered dengan jaminan sekitar 99% saham PT Asmin Koalindo Tuhup dan PT Borneo Mining Services. Grup Bakrie akan menggunakan dana penjualan saham Bumi Plc untuk membayar utang kepada konsorsium kreditur yang diatur oleh Credit Suisse AG, Singapore. Sisa utang sekitar USD300 juta masih dinegosiasikan dengan Credit Suisse. Bisnis Indonesia, Bloomberg AZ : Sentimen negatif. Saat ini saham BORN diperdagangkan pada PER12K=5,84 x ; PBV12K=1,22 x dan EV/EBITDA12K=3,61 x (valuasi sangat menarik namun dengan kekhawatiran Tata Kelola Manajemen). APOL Lolos Gugatan Pailit…APOL (Rp120) lolos dari gugatan pailit setelah kreditur menyetujui proposal perdamaian yang diajukan APOL. Proses Penundaan Pembayaran Kewajiban Utang (PKPU) akan dilanjutkan pada 7/11/2011 dengan agenda pembacaan hasil perdamaian oleh majelis hakim di Pengadilan Niaga Jakarta Pusat. Salah satu kreditur yaitu BNGA diketahui menolak proses voting dan memohon ke pengadilan untuk mengakhiri proses PKPU. Bisnis Indonesia AZ : Sentimen positif. AISA Aliansi Dengan Bunge Agribusiness Singapore…AISA (Rp660) berencana menerbitkan saham baru PT Bumiraya Investindo (BI), anak usaha AISA untuk (i) konversi mandatory convertible bond senilai Rp145 miliar milik AISA menjadi saham BI dan (ii) pengambilan-bagian saham oleh Bunge Agribusiness Singapore Pte Ltd. (BAS) Sehingga BAS nantinya akan memiliki 35% saham BI. BI adalah perusahaan perkebunan dan pengolahan kelapa sawit. AISA akan meminta persetujuan pemegang saham pada RULB 24/11/2011. Bisnis Indonesia AZ : Sentimen positif. Atlas Resources Kurangi Saham IPO…PT Altas Resources, perusahana tambang batu bara, mengurangi jumlah saham IPO dari 783,33 juta lembar menjadi 650 juta lembar atau 21,67% dari jumlah saham yang ditempatkan & disetor penuh. Harga IPO telah di tetapkan sebesar Rp1500/saham. Bisnis Indonesia

2

SUCORINVEST

Morning Coffee

November 2, 2011

TECHNICAL CHARTS Klinger Oscillator (19,507,136.0)

Klinger Oscillator (25,950,836.0)

5000

0

0 -5000

-5000

x10000

x10000

Stochastic Oscillator (80.0000)

100

Stochastic Oscillator (75.8242) 50

INCO (3,650.00, 3,650.00, 3,475.00, 3,500.00, -150.000)

50

5000 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400

G3475-3525 G3325-3350

INTP (16,150.00, 16,250.00, 15,250.00, 15,250.00, -1,100.00)

18000 17500 17000 16500 16000 15500 15000 B

14500

(

14000 13500

SL14250

13000 12500 12000 11500 11000 10500

A

10000

20000

5000

10000 x1000

30 30

6 June

13

20

27

4 July

11

18

25

1 8 August

15

22

5 12 September

19

26

3 10 October

17

24

31 7 November

x1000

14

30

INCO (Rp3500) – SELL Tiga dari empat indikator teknikal bergerak turun, indikator klinger oscillator dead cross, stochastic oscillator dead cross (80), menguji candle 3 black crows, terdapat GAP3475-3525 dan GAP3325-3350 yang belum ditutup sebagai SL, harga turun – volume naik.

6 June

13

20

27

4 July

11

18

25

1 8 August

15

22

5 12 September

19

26

3 10 October

17

24

31 7 November

14

INTP (Rp15250) - SELL Tiga dari empat indikator teknikal bergerak turun, indikator klinger oscillator dead cross, stochastic oscillator dead cross (76), garis AB sebagai garis SL di level Rp14250-an, harga turun – volume naik.



1000

1000 0

0

-1000

-1000

-2000

x10000

x10000



50

ITMG (44,500.00, 44,850.00, 43,250.00, 43,550.00, -1,100.00)

50

53000

PTBA (18,250.00, 18,500.00, 17,500.00, 17,750.00, -600.000)

52000

22000

51000

21500

50000

21000

49000

20500

48000

20000

47000

19500

46000

19000

45000

18500

44000

B

18000

43000

(

42000

SL42100

40000

16500

39000

16000

38000

15500

37000

15000

36000

14500

17500

41000

17000

G16950-17100

35000

14000

34000

A

13500

33000

13000

50000

50000 x100

11

18

25

2 May

9

16

23

30

6 June

13

20

27

4 July

11

18

25

1 8 August

15

22

5 12 September

19

26

3 10 October

17

24

31 7 November

x100

14

6 June

ITMG (Rp43550) – SELL Tiga dari empat indikator teknikal bergerak turun, indikator klinger oscillator dead cross, stochastic oscillator dead cross (84), menguji candle 3 balck crows, garis AB sebagai garis SL di level Rp42100an, harga turun – volume naik.

13

20

27

4 July

11

18

25

1 8 August

15

22

5 12 September

19

26

3 10 October

17

24

31 7 November

14

PTBA (Rp17750) - SELL Tiga dari empat indikator teknikal bergerak turun, indikator klinger oscillator dead cross, stochastic oscillator dead cross (69), menguji candle 3 black crows, terdapat GAP16950-17100 yang belum di tutup sebagai SL, harga turun – volume naik.


2000 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 x10000 -4000


5000 0 -5000 x100000


Stochastic Oscillator (47.3684) 50

50

2350

SMCB (1,910.00, 1,950.00, 1,890.00, 1,910.00, -20.0000)

UNSP (290.000, 300.000, 275.000, 280.000, -15.0000)

500 490 480 470 460 450 440 430 420 410 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230

2300 2250 2200 2150 2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 1800 1750 1700 1650 1600 10000

20000

5000

10000

x1000

30 30

6 June

13

20

27

4 July

11

18

25

1 8 August

15

22

5 12 September

19

26

3 10 October

17

24

31 7 November

14

SMCB (Rp1910) - SELL Tiga dari empat indikator teknikal bergerak turun, indikator klinger oscillator dead cross, stochastic oscillator dead cross (73), muncul candle bearish doji, harga turun – volume naik.

3030

30 30

x10000

30

6 June

13

20

27

4 July

11

18

25

1 8 August

15

22

5 12 September

19

26

3 10 October

17

24

31 7 November

14

UNSP (Rp280) - SELL Tiga dari empat indikator teknikal bergerak turun, indikator klinger oscillator berpotongan dengan potensi dead cross, stochastic oscillator dead cross (47), menguji candle 3 black crows, harga turun – volume naik. 30

30

Keterangan : empat indikator teknikal adalah demand index, klinger oscillator, macd dan stochastic oscillator ; golden cross adalah indikasi potensi kenaikan ; dead cross adalah indikasi potensi penurunan.

3

SUCORINVEST

Morning Coffee TRADING TAB

November 2, 2011

Market Activity Ticker

Prev

Price Chg

Last

IHSG

3791 -106 3685

AALI

21450 -350 21100

S2

3610

Technical Study S1

R1

3648

R2

3756

STO RSI

BB

Relative Ratio

EMA MACD Fibo Classic

Tech. Score

PBV

P/E ‘11

P/E ‘12

BETA

3828

-

-

-

-

-

-

4

4.0

2.7

14.7

na

1.00

20450 20800 21500 21850

-

-

-

-

-

-

5

5.0

4.4

12.4

12.5

1.08

ADRO

2025

-35 1990

1900

1950

2075

2150

-

-

-

-

-

-

4

4.0

3.1

13.1

9.7

1.18

AKRA

3025

-75 2950

2775

2875

3025

3075

-

-

-

-

-

-

4

4.0

3.5

23.5

17.4

1.07

1600

1650

1770

1840

2

-

-

-

-

-

4

3.0

1.5

8.4

9.1

1.12

64850 65700 68150 69750

2

-

-

-

-

-

4

3.0

4.8

15.7

13.9

1.23

ANTM

1790 -100 1690

ASII

69000 -2500 66500

BBCA

8100 -200 7900

7750

7800

8000

8150

2

-

-

-

-

-

5

3.5

4.8

19.6

16.9

0.96

BBNI

4025 -100 3925

3800

3875

4025

4100

-

-

-

-

-

-

4

4.0

2.1

13.6

11.3

1.17

BBRI

6750 -200 6550

6350

6450

6700

6850

-

-

-

-

-

-

5

5.0

3.6

12.2

10.4

1.17

BDMN

4975

4825

4875

4950

4975

-

-

-

-

-

-

5

5.0

1.7

13.2

11.4

0.95

BLTA

192

BMRI

184

179

182

189

193

4

-

-

-

-

-

3

3.5

0.3

na

na

0.95

7150 -350 6800

6550

6650

7050

7350

-

-

-

-

-

-

3

3.0

na

12.9

11.4

1.33

BNBR

52

BNGA

1350

BTEL

295

BUMI DEWA

-75 4900 -8

52

50

51

53

54

4

-

-

-

-

-

4

4.0

0.4

7.4

na

0.89

-80 1270

0

1200

1240

1330

1380

-

-

-

-

-

-

4

4.0

1.8

12.0

11.5

1.03 0.77

280

265

270

290

305

4

-

-

3

-

-

5

4.0

1.6

na

na

2350 -200 2150

1930

2050

2325

2475

2

-

-

-

-

-

4

3.0

4.5

10.9

7.5

1.12

72

73

78

82

4

-

-

-

-

-

4

4.0

0.5

na

na

1.25

79

-15 -4

75

ELTY

116

-5

111

106

109

116

120

-

-

-

-

-

-

5

5.0

0.5

38.7

26.6

1.26

ENRG

164

-13

151

140

146

162

172

-

-

-

-

-

-

5

5.0

1.1

62.7

9.1

1.23

INCO

3650 -150 3500

3375

3425

3600

3725

3

-

-

-

-

4

2

3.0

2.1

8.5

8.9

1.26

INDF

5250 -250 5000

4825

4925

5150

5300

-

-

-

-

2

-

4

3.0

2.4

13.3

12.0

1.02

14600 14900 15900 16600

INTP

16350 -1100 15250

ISAT

5350 -200 5150

3

-

-

-

-

-

2

2.5

3.8

15.6

13.3

1.22

5550

2

-

-

-

-

-

4

3.0

1.5

23.0

15.7

0.83

ITMG

44650 -1100 43550

JSMR

3850 -100 3750

42300 42900 44500 45500 3650

3700

3850

3950

3

-

-

-

-

-

2

2.5

6.2

11.8

8.9

1.14

-

-

-

-

4

-

5

4.5

3.2

17.8

15.3

0.89

KLBF

3475 -100 3375

3300

3325

3450

3550

4

-

-

-

-

-

LSIP

2200

-75 2125

2050

2075

2175

2250

-

-

-

-

-

-

5

4.5

5.5

21.2

18.1

1.19

4

4.0

na

9.0

9.1

1.13

4950

5050

5350

MEDC

2325

50 2375

2225

2300

2425

2475

-

-

-

-

6

-

5

5.5

1.0

20.4

14.0

1.17

PGAS

2950

-25 2925

2850

2875

3000

3100

-

-

-

-

-

-

2

2.0

4.9

10.9

10.6

1.10

16900 17350 18350 18900

PTBA

18350 -600 17750

3

-

-

-

-

-

2

2.5

5.4

12.0

10.0

1.20

3025

-50 2975

2850

2925

3075

3150

-

-

-

-

-

-

2

2.0

2.4

9.1

9.4

1.11

SMCB

1930

-20 1910

1860

1880

1940

1980

3

-

-

-

-

-

2

2.5

2.0

15.6

13.2

1.09

SMGR

9500 -500 9000

8500

8750

9400

9800

3

-

-

-

-

-

4

3.5

4.0

13.6

11.6

0.93

TINS

1990

-80 1910

1820

1870

1980

2050

-

-

-

-

-

-

4

4.0

2.1

7.8

7.2

1.37

TLKM

7400

0 7400

7350

7350

7450

7550

2

-

-

7

-

-

5

4.7

3.2

12.2

11.4

0.66

260

270

295

SGRO

UNSP

310

4

-

-

-

-

-

2

3.0

0.4

6.9

6.5

1.19

UNTR

24600 -900 23700

22950 23350 24450 25150

-

-

-

-

-

-

4

4.0

3.5

16.1

13.8

1.29

UNVR

15650

15250 15450 15850 16050

-

-

-

-

-

-

5

5.0

26.9

29.9

26.7

0.81

WIKA

520

-

-

-

-

4

-

5

4.5

1.6

8.9

7.5

1.08

Prev Last S1, S2 R1, R2 STO RSI

295

: : : : : :

-15

280

0 15650 -25

495

480

harga saham hari sebelumnya harga saham penutupan kemarin batas support batas resistance Stochastic Oscillator 14 hari (14:3:3) Relative Strength Index 14 hari

485

510

BB EMA MACD Fibo Classic

: : : : :

530

Bollinger Band 20 hari Exponential Moving Average 24, 90, 240 hari MACD (26:12:9) Fibonacci Retracement Nilai yang diberikan analis teknikal berdasar kan analisa klasik

Tech Score : Nilai rata-rata indikator teknikal & analisa klasik PBV : Price Book Value P/E11‘12 : Price Earning Ratio (P/E) tahun 2011 dan 2012 berdasarkan Bloomberg Est. consensus Beta : Koefisien pembanding pergerakan saham dengan pergerakan pasar (IHSG)

Penjelasan Tech Score: Strong Buy 9 8

Buy 7

6

Neutral 5

Sell 4

3

Strong Sell 2 1

4

SUCORINVEST

Morning Coffee

November 2, 2011

WHAT TO WATCH Series

Maturity

Tenor year

Coupon %

Price

YTM %

FR0023

15-Dec-12

1.12

11.00

106.45

4.85

FR0033

15-Mar-13

1.37

12.50

109.73

4.91

FR0049

15-Sep-13

1.87

9.00

106.60

FR0051

15-May-14

2.53

11.25

FR0026

15-Oct-14

2.95

11.00

FR0027

15-Jun-15

3.62

FR0030

15-May-16

4.53

Yield Curve %

Spread bps

Valuation

4.58

26.89

BUY

4.76

15.50

BUY

5.13

5.03

10.28

BUY

113.76

5.26

5.29

(3.03)

indifferent

114.93

5.34

5.42

(8.13)

SELL

9.50

112.00

5.70

5.60

9.87

10.75

119.92

5.60

5.79

(19.58)

SELL SELL

BUY

FR0055

15-Sep-16

4.87

7.38

106.75

5.68

5.85

(17.94)

FR0028

15-Jul-17

5.70

10.00

119.50

5.85

5.99

(14.40)

SELL

FR0032

15-Jul-18

6.70

15.00

148.00

6.07

6.13

(5.83)

SELL

FR0038

15-Aug-18

6.78

11.60

130.23

6.03

6.14

(11.42)

SELL

FR0048

15-Sep-18

6.87

9.00

116.03

6.04

6.15

(10.81)

SELL

FR0036

15-Sep-19

7.87

11.50

132.49

6.18

6.27

(9.28)

SELL

FR0031

15-Nov-20

9.04

11.00

131.74

6.30

6.39

(8.58)

SELL

FR0034

15-Jun-21

9.62

12.80

145.25

6.36

6.44

(7.76)

SELL

FR0053

15-Jul-21

9.70

8.25

113.50

6.30

6.45

(14.99)

SELL

FR0035

15-Jun-22

10.62

12.90

148.59

6.45

6.53

(7.50)

SELL

FR0043

15-Jul-22

10.70

10.25

128.56

6.46

6.53

(7.15)

SELL

FR0046

15-Jul-23

11.70

9.50

123.34

6.57

6.61

(4.39)

indifferent

FR0039

15-Aug-23

11.78

11.75

141.59

6.58

6.62

(4.23)

indifferent

FR0044

15-Sep-24

12.87

10.00

127.92

6.69

6.69

(0.38)

indifferent indifferent

FR0040

15-Sep-25

13.87

11.00

137.05

6.79

6.76

3.57

FR0037

15-Sep-26

14.87

12.00

146.62

6.90

6.82

8.07

BUY

FR0056

15-Sep-26

14.87

8.38

113.00

6.90

6.82

8.25

BUY

FR0059

15-May-27

15.53

7.00

100.75

6.88

6.86

2.41

indifferent

FR0042

15-Jul-27

15.70

10.25

130.83

6.95

6.87

8.36

BUY

FR0047

15-Feb-28

16.29

10.00

128.62

6.99

6.90

8.98

BUY

FR0052

15-Aug-30

18.78

10.50

133.94

7.15

7.02

12.81

BUY

FR0054

15-Jul-31

19.70

9.50

123.25

7.22

7.06

16.01

BUY

FR0058

15-Jun-32

20.62

8.25

109.63

7.30

7.10

20.11

FR0045

15-May-37

25.53

9.75

127.51

7.32

7.29

2.95

indifferent indifferent

FR0050

15-Jul-38

26.70

10.50

136.34

7.34

7.32

1.08

FR0057

15-May-41

29.53

9.50

122.30

7.52

7.41

11.18

BUY

BUY

Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research BUY : Jika YTM berada di atas Yield Curve

SELL :

Jika YTM berada di bawah Yield Curve

Yield Curve

indifferent : Jika jarak keduanya kurang dari 5 bps

$ Yield (%)

Yield (%)

$

)

%

*+ ,

&'!" % ('!"

PRQWK

Tenor (year)

Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest Research

Tenor (year)


5

SUCORINVEST

Morning Coffee

November 2, 2011

.

/

01!

2'

0'

15-Jul-21 15-Sep-16 15-Jul-31 15-Jun-21 15-Jun-15

Top Volume

114.00 107.35 124.65 145.75 112.90

Maturity

Price

FR0034 15-Jun-21 FR0053 15-Jul-21 FR0061 15-May-22 GBRB0025NvBV 25-Sep-17 FR0055 15-Sep-16

$

$

-

11 11 9 8 7

BTPN01B PPLN12B BTPN03A FIFA10B ISAT05B

Frequency Volume

145.75 114.00 104.75 99.60 107.35

Top Active

504 391 324 783 221

8 11 4 2 11

Top Volume

783 504 479 398 391

BTPN01B PPLN12B BVIC02B BTPN03A BTPN01A

Source: IDX

01!

-

01!

-

Corporate Bonds Maturity Price 7-Oct-14 8-Jul-22 22-Dec-13 29-Apr-12 29-May-17

Maturity 7-Oct-14 8-Jul-22 21-Mar-17 22-Dec-13 7-Oct-12

Frequency Volume

108.30 110.04 100.25 100.46 100.20

Price

9 4 4 3 2

78 44 25 11 5

Frequency Volume

108.30 110.04 100.00 100.25 100.00

9 4 1 4 1

78 44 41 25 20

Source: IDX

"

!


Government Bonds Maturity Price Frequency Volume

FR0053 FR0055 FR0054 FR0034 FR0027

-


Top Active

-

!" #

,

!" #

Source: Bloomberg

`

-

01!

-

01!

-

Source: Bloomberg

6

SUCORINVEST

Morning Coffee

November 2, 2011

#$ 34

#$ 34

-

.

/

01!

2'

0'

0'

-


&1

-


#$ 34

#$ 34

`

`

-

.

/

01!

2'

0'

-

-


.

.

/

01!

2'


Indonesia Malaysia China Russia Peru Brazil

Rating S&P Moody’s BB+ AAABBB BBBBBB-

Ba1 A3 Aa3 Baa1 Baa3 Baa3

01!

2'

0'

-


%#$ 34

$ #$ 34

-

/

0'

-

-

/

01!

2'

0'

-


Fitch

Risk Premium Last Prev Month

Inflation Last Prev Month

BB+ AA+ BBB BBBBBB

2.24 1.77 1.73 2.70 1.72 1.47

4.42 3.40 6.10 7.20 4.20 7.31

3.32 2.12 1.55 3.61 2.26 1.92

.

4.61 3.30 6.20 8.20 3.73 7.23

Central Bank Rate Last Prev Month Description 6.50 3.00 6.56 8.25 4.25 11.50

6.75 3.00 6.56 8.25 4.25 12.00

Bank Indonesia Reference Rate BNM Spot Reference Central Bank of China Base Rate Russia Interbank Offered Rate 3Mo Peru Central Bank Reference Rate Brazil Central Bank Reference Rate

Source: Bloomberg

7

SUCORINVEST

Morning Coffee

November 2, 2011

AGENDA October - November 2011 31

1

MON

TUE

The Fed Meeting BWPT - Div Pay KARW - EGM

2

WED

The Fed Meeting VOKS - EGM INCO - Div Cum GMTD - Div Cum ASGR - Div Cum

3

THU

INCO - Div Ex GMTD - Div Ex ASGR - Div Ex

4

FRI

MYOH - EGM

November 2011 7

MON

KRAS - EGM

8

TUE

PTIS - EGM KKGI - Div Cum

9

WED

DSSA - EGM KKGI - Div Ex

10

THU

11

FRI

BVIC - EGM BNGA - Div Cum GMTD - Div Pay

8

SUCORINVEST

Morning Coffee

November 2, 2011

PT SUCORINVEST CENTRAL GANI Head Office: Equity Tower 31st floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53 Jakarta 12190 phone: 62 21 2996 0999 fax: 62 21 5797 3938 www.sucorinvest.com Branch Office: SURABAYA Jl. Trunojoyo 67 Surabaya 60264 ph: 031 563 3720 fax: 031 563 3710

MALANG Jl. Ijen 76 Malang 65112 ph: 0341 366 122 fax: 0341 368 002

SEMARANG Graha Sucofindo Lt.4 Jl. Pemuda No.171 Semarang 50132 ph: 024 865 77922 fax: 021 865 77920

YOGYAKARTA Jl. Poncowinatan No.94 ph: 0274 580111 fax: 0274 580111 Equity Director Yuliawaty ext. 110 [email protected] Analyst Robby Hafil ext. 104 [email protected]

Analyst Gifar Indra Sakti ext. 103 [email protected]

Technical Analyst Tek Djen, Pang ext. 115 [email protected]

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JAKARTA Santi Matovani ext. 144 [email protected]

SURABAYA Jenny Komala ext. 107 [email protected]

MALANG Ariesena ext. 112 [email protected]

Nurrani Hakim ext. 138 [email protected] SEMARANG Adi Triawan [email protected]

YOGYAKARTA Alex Hartono [email protected] Fixed Income Sales Johanes Johari ext.239 [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS This material was prepared by the Sucorinvest Central Gani affiliated named on the cover or inside cover page. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. While based on information believed to be reliable, on guarantee is given that it is accurate or complete. While we Endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information and opinions contained herein, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. The opinions, forecast, assumptions, estimates, derived valuation and target price(s) contained in this material as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The investments referred to may not be suitable for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of recipients and should be not relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. The stated price of any securities mentioned herein is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be affected at this price. Neither Sucorinvest Central Gani nor other person shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive and exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material. This material is for the use of intended recipients only and the contents may not be reproduced, redistributed, or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Sucorinvest Central Gani’s prior express consent. In any jurisdiction in which distribution to private/retail customers would require registration or licensing of the distributor which the distributor does not currently have, this document is intended solely for distribution to professional and institutional investors.

9

SUCORINVEST. Morning Coffee HIGHLIGHTS MARKET VIEW TECHNICAL PICKS

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