MACRO & DEBT MARKET Daily Report

August 2, 20 10

MACRO & DEBT MARKET Daily Report

RESEARCH

FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY Last 8,935 1.308 86.570 1.573

IDR/USD USD/EUR JPY/USD GBP/USD

DEBT MARKET

-1 day chg -1 week chg -1 month chg (+/- %) (+/- %) (+/- %) 0.168 -1.085 -1.303 0.238 0.677 4.422 0.116 -0.357 -1.176 0.249 1.543 3.637

Last (%) Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield 1 Year 6.455 2 Year 6.660 3 Year 7.290

-0.012 0.040 0.260

Median Estimate

-0.034 0.000 0.223

6.769 7.120 7.333

4 Year

7.398

0.012

-0.021

7.464

5 Year

7.501

-0.027

-0.148

7.568

-1 day chg (+/- bps)

6 Year

7.683

-0.039

-0.088

7.676

7.814 8.022 8.052 8.084

-0.010 -0.003 -0.001 -0.016

-0.158 -0.078 -0.171 -0.198

7.801 7.945 8.103 8.270

8.796

-0.041

-0.253

9.069

IDR JIBOR O/N 1M

6.232 6.512

0.016 0.000

0.035 0.017

0.001 0.022

3M

6.989

0.000

0.045

0.121

15 Year

0.210 0.138 0.143 0.320 0.645

0.010 -0.002 -0.005 -0.003 0.002

0.010 -0.189 -0.010 -0.013 0.012

0.170 -0.032 -0.001 -0.032 0.160

Others

7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50

Last

Indonesia Govt CDS

Last Price

280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 29-Mar 2Y

-1 Month

26-Apr

24-May 5Y

21-Jun 10Y

19-Jul

10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 1222111May May Jun Jun 10Y U.S. Treasury Note

211112131Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul 10Y Indonesia Soverign US$ Bond

Y

-0.015 -0.037 -0.017

15

0.049 0.047 0.029

Y

0.014 0.025 0.002

8.00

10

6.531 6.600 6.729

8.50

9Y

0.000 -0.070

9.00

8Y

0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.034

7Y

6.500 6.262 6.630

Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve 9.50

6Y

-0.065 -0.043 -0.080

5Y

-0.007 -0.022 -0.039

4Y

-0.001 -0.007 -0.012

3Y

3M SBI BI Rate 1M 3M IDR Average Deposit 1M 3M 12M

0.241 0.305 0.454

1Y

USD LIBOR O/N 1M

2Y

-1 week chg -1 month chg (+/- bps) (+/- bps)

7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year

1-Mar

-1 week chg (+/- bps)

TREASURY & MONEY MARKET Last (%)

Fed Fund (o/n) US T-Bills 1M US T-Bills 3M SIBOR 1M EURIBOR 1M

-1 day chg (+/- bps)

Estimate

Volume (RpBn)

Most Active Govt Bonds 98.49 VR0019 101.25 FR0054 95.94 SPN110407 98.25 VR0020 99.60 VR0017 95.91 SPN110505 119.00 FR0019 108.75 FR0027 112.95 FR0051 94.73 SPN110707

225.8 154.0 125.2 122.0 117.0 100.0 95.0 85.0 70.0 70.0

Most Active Corp Bonds 101.43 PPLN12A 100.09 FIFA10B 100.17 ASDF11B 106.40 BTPN01B 101.95 PPGD12A 101.18 TLKM02A 101.05 TLKM02B 104.60 ISAT05B 101.25 PPGD12A 102.30 BBTN14

29.0 20.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

Data Source: Bloomberg & CTP

Macroeconomy & Debt Market Daily Report - August 2, 2010

HISTORICAL & FORECAST OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 Sep Riil GDP (yoy) Private Consumption Government Consumption Investment (PDBRT) Inflation CPI (yoy) CPI (mom) Consumption Motorcycle Sales (Units) Automobile Sales (Units) Cement Sales (mn tons) Consumer Confidence Index Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn) Export (yoy) Import (yoy) Reserves Foreign Reserve (USD bio) Net International Reserve (Rp trn) Moneter (yoy) M1 Money Supply M2 Money Supply Financial Sector BI rate (%) SBI 3 months (%) SUN 10 years (%) Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD) Source: Bloomberg & CEIC

Oct

Nov

4.21 4.75 10.20 3.95 2.83 1.05

Dec

Jan

Feb

5.43 3.96 16.97 4.18 2.41 -0.03

Apr

May

Jun

5.69 3.92 -8.81 7.89 4.16 0.29

5.05 0.97

421,626 613,979 546,352 551,955 501,694 537,031 608,691 655,813 640,234 37,209 52,226 48,329 47,948 52,806 55,656 65,523 65,232 60,526 2.80 4.20 3.81 4.07 3.48996 3.15686 3.61845 110.8 110.0 111.0 108.7 110.5 105.3 107.4 110.7 109.9

111.4

1,326.0 -19.8 -24.6

2.57 0.19

2Q10 Mar

2,812.6 1,897.7 13.5 11.3 -12.1 -2.4

2.78 0.33

3.72 0.84

3.81 0.30

3.43 -0.14

3,001.9 49.8 33.38

2,031.4 59 44.58

1,707.0 57.1 59.9

1,801.8 48.3 67.42

3.91 0.15

799.4 2,467.6 42.4 36 67.53 31.6

62.3 596.4

64.5 609.5

65.8 587.4

66.1 585.9

69.6 616.2

69.7 616.1

71.8 620.6

78.6 674.8

74.6 651.3

2.1 13.5

5.8 11.5

6.8 11.4

10.7 12.4

10.69 12.38

12.72 8.75

10.36 8.63

9.22 10.59

12.59 9.75

6.50 6.55 9.98 9,665

6.50 6.60 10.163 9,550

6.50 6.59 10.174 9,468

6.50 6.59 10.06 9,480

6.50 6.60 9.791 9,360

6.50 6.59 9.847 9,335

6.50 6.56 9.096 9,095

6.50 6.50 8.601 9,013

6.50 6.58 8.943 9,180

76.3 660.2

6.50 6.60 8.379 9,053

Kepemilikan SUN yang dapat diperdagangkan per 29 Juli 2010 (dalam Rp Triliun) Holders Bank Reksadana Asuransi Dana Pensiun Sekuritas Lain-Lain Asing

Mar 2010 237.74 44.18 78.04 37.24 0.42 44.37 132.46

April 2010 236.04 46.75 75.31 37.15 0.22 45.35 148.13

May 2010 236.45 47.30 77.23 37.52 0.25 45.77 144.09

June 2010 232.67 48.84 77.44 36.48 0.13 44.49 162.05

23-Jul 2010 229.40 49.36 80.40 37.03 0.23 44.33 169.58

26-Jul 2010 229.20 49.36 80.40 37.03 0.23 44.32 169.79

27-Jul 2010 229.12 49.40 80.43 37.09 0.23 44.31 169.74

28-Jul 2010 228.80 49.39 80.40 37.07 0.23 44.29 170.14

29-Jul 2010 227.78 49.35 80.42 37.01 0.22 44.26 171.89

Source: DMO

2

Macroeconomy & Debt Market Daily Report - August 2, 2010

Obligasi Indofood Naik Jadi Rp1,61 T

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) saat ini sedang dalam proses penerbitan Obligasi V tahun 2009 berjangka waktu 5 tahun. Nilai obligasi berubah dari Rp1 triliun menjadi Rp1,61 triliun. Sebelumnya, manajemen INDF sempat mengatakan akan menambah nilai obligasi menjadi Rp1,5 triliun bila permintaan membludak (oversubcribe). INDF akan memakai sebagian dana hasil penerbitan obligasi tersebut untuk melunasi Obligasi Indofood III senilai Rp976 miliar yang jatuh tempo Juli 2009 mendatang. Utang INDF per 31 Desember 2008 mencapai Rp14,83 triliun. Sekitar Rp7,2 triliun di antaranya merupakan utang jangka pendek, sisanya berupa utang jangka panjang.

BI: Instrumen Surat Utang Tak Masuk LDR

Bank Indonesia (BI) menegaskan instrumen surat berharga yang ditempatkan oleh bank berupa obligasi korporasi atau semacamnya tidak akan dimasukkan dalam penghitungan Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR). Aturan yang akan segera dirilis mengenai LDR yang dikaitkan dengan Giro Wajib Minimum (GWM) hanya memperhitungkan rasio penyaluran kredit. Gubernur BI terpilih Darmin Nasution mengatakan aturan LDR-GWM akan segera diumumkan dalam waktu dekat. Sebelumnya kalangan perbankan meminta agar penempatan dana dalam surat utang atau obligasi dimasukkan dalam penghitungan LDR. Darmin menjelaskan instrumen surat berharga yang dibeli oleh bank bukan merupakan pinjaman yang akan menggerakan sekto riil. Tetapi menurutnya, hanya merupakan pinjaman ke pasar saham. Lebih lanjut Darmin mengatakan hingga saat ini bank sentral masih mengkaji mengenai batasan LDR yang harus dipenuhi oleh bank. Ia menjamin rasio LDR yang akan ditetapkan tidak akan membuat bank kesulitan.

Obligasi Pertamina US$ 1,5 Miliar Terancam Molor

Rencana PT Pertamina (Persero) untuk menerbitkan obligasi US$ 1,5 miliar pada September 2010 kemungkinan akan mundur lagi. Menurut Direktur Keuangan Pertamina, M. Afdhal Bahaudin, hingga kini hasil audit terhadap laporan keuangan tahun 2009 yang dilakukan oleh lembaga audit Ernst&Young dan kantor akuntan publik PSS Purwanto masih belum selesai. Padahal, salah satu syarat penerbitan obligasi adalah laporan keuangan dua tahun terakhir harus selesai diaudit. Pertamina sendiri sudah menyelesaikan audit untuk laporan keuangan 2008, tinggal menunggu laporan keuangan tahun lalu selesai diperiksa. Namun, Afdal berharap penerbitan obligasi bisa tetap terlaksana pada tahun ini juga. Rencananya dana hasil oblihasi akan digunakan untuk kegiatan investasi pengembangan sektor upstream, downstream, sampai midstream. "Karena due diligence, legal dan sebagainya kita sudah siapkan," ungkapnya. Semula, BUMN migas itu menargetkan penerbitan surat utang itu bisa dilakukan sekitar bulan April-Mei 2010 lalu. Manajemen perusahaan pelat merah itu kemudian sepakat untuk memundurkan jadwal penerbitannya karena masih menunggu hasil audit laporan keuangan tahun 2009. Tahun ini, perseroan menganggarkan capex sebanyak Rp 39 triliun. Dana itu naik sebesar 56,4 persen dari capex tahun sebelumnya yang hanya sebanyak Rp 22 triliun. 3

Macroeconomy & Debt Market Daily Report - August 2, 2010

GOVERNMENT BONDS VALUATION Last Price data: 30-Jul-2010

Yield Curve

Valuation Price

FR0045

101.20 102.68 103.07 103.85 107.16 106.13 104.24 109.26 111.94 109.23 113.45 118.87 105.61 121.36 113.32 113.24 108.21 114.15 111.01 139.94 120.35 105.16 120.36 117.40 130.05 131.41 111.95 105.92 123.19 109.31 117.15 125.42 110.41 108.05 111.72 102.83 109.87

FR0052

5.83% 5.86% 5.90% 5.98% 6.20% 6.23% 6.27% 6.37% 6.56% 6.71% 6.80% 6.88% 6.96% 7.04% 7.16% 7.28% 7.45% 7.67% 7.91% 8.09% 8.10% 8.12% 8.27% 8.43% 8.50% 8.62% 8.63% 8.73% 8.73% 8.83% 8.91% 8.98% 9.04% 9.07% 9.21% 9.46% 9.49%

FR0047

FR0044 FR0040

5.09% 5.70% 6.10% 5.52% 6.26% 6.27% 6.41% 6.62% 6.87% 6.94% 7.02% 7.07% 7.17% 7.25% 7.35% 7.40% 7.48% 7.67% 7.80% 8.19% 7.98% 7.98% 8.02% 8.05% 8.22% 8.44% 8.49% 8.63% 8.63% 8.75% 8.78% 8.88% 9.29% 9.07% 9.58% 9.61% 9.70%

FR0037 FR0042

-20

101.35 102.73 103.00 104.10 107.10 106.08 104.07 108.90 111.34 108.70 112.90 118.35 105.02 120.65 112.66 112.78 108.11 114.13 111.64 139.21 121.16 105.99 122.20 120.33 132.46 133.01 113.01 106.67 124.11 110.04 118.34 126.41 108.08 108.08 108.08 101.36 107.70

FR0039

0

12.00% 15.58% 14.50% 13.40% 13.45% 12.00% 10.00% 13.15% 13.18% 11.00% 12.50% 14.25% 9.00% 14.28% 11.25% 11.00% 9.50% 10.75% 10.00% 15.00% 11.60% 9.00% 11.50% 11.00% 12.80% 12.90% 10.25% 9.50% 11.75% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 10.25% 10.00% 10.50% 9.75% 10.50%

FR0046

20

15-Oct-10 15-Nov-10 15-Dec-10 15-Feb-11 15-Aug-11 15-Sep-11 15-Oct-11 15-Jan-12 15-Jul-12 15-Dec-12 15-Mar-13 15-Jun-13 15-Sep-13 15-Dec-13 15-May-14 15-Oct-14 15-Jun-15 15-May-16 15-Jul-17 15-Jul-18 15-Aug-18 15-Sep-18 15-Sep-19 15-Nov-20 15-Jun-21 15-Jun-22 15-Jul-22 15-Jul-23 15-Aug-23 15-Sep-24 15-Sep-25 15-Sep-26 15-Jul-27 15-Feb-28 15-Aug-30 15-May-37 15-Jul-38

FR0043

40

YTM

FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0035

Yield Difference (in bps)

60

Last Price

FR0048

80

Coupon

FR0013 FR0014 FR0024 FR0021 FR0015 FR0016 FR0022 FR0025 FR0017 FR0018 FR0023 FR0033 FR0019 FR0049 FR0020 FR0051 FR0026 FR0027

FR0024 FR0014 FR0021 FR0015 FR0016 FR0022 FR0025 FR0017 FR0018 FR0023 FR0033 FR0019 FR0049 FR0020 FR0051 FR0026 FR0027 FR0030 FR0028 FR0032 FR0038 FR0048 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0035 FR0043 FR0046 FR0039 FR0044 FR0040 FR0037 FR0042 FR0047 FR0052 FR0045 FR0050

Maturity Date

FR0030 FR0028FR0032 FR0038

Series

-40

-60 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Years to Maturity

4

Macroeconomy & Debt Market Daily Report - August 2, 2010

MACRO & DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Research Dept.

: +62 21 25543946

Fax No

: +62 21 57935831

E-mail

: [email protected]

Norico Gaman

ext. 3934

[email protected]

Head of Research

Deoly Rawendra

ext. 2050

[email protected]

Debt Analyst

Dian Kurniati

ext. 2051

[email protected]

Research Adm.

DEBT MARKET TEAM Debt Capital Market Division

: +62 21 25543946

Fax No

: +62 21 5796934

E-mail

: [email protected]

Sukartono

ext. 3974

[email protected]

Head of Division

Anang Roso

ext. 3936

[email protected]

Head of Sales

5

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