Tuesday, August 04, 2015
DAILY RESEARCH Sinarmas Investment Research/+6221 3925550/
[email protected]
JCI Index 4,820
ID X S ta tis tic s
C lo s in g
J CI
4 ,8 0 0 .18
Tra n s a c tio n Va lu e (Rp tn )
4 .5 3 7
Tra n s a c tio n Vo lu me (mn s h a re s )
4 ,4 18
Fo re ig n Ne t Bu y (S e ll) (Rp b n )
4,800
3 2 7 .9 9
Fo re ig n Ne t Bu y (S e ll) YTD (Rp tn )
4,780
4 .6 9
a s p e rc e n ta g e o f la s t ye a r's
(0 .9 3 )
To ta l Ma rke t Ca p ita liza tio n (Rp tn )
4,760 Ke y In d ic e s
C lo s in g
4,740 J CI
Last Price
Previous day
Closed at 4800.18
Previous Day: Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Senin (3/8), IHSG turun sebanyak 2,35 poin (0,05%) ke level 4800,18. Ada sebanyak 115 saham yang naik, 169 saham yang turun, dan 87 saham yang stagnan. LQ45 naik sebanyak 1,96 poin (0,24%) ke level 815,05. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor keuangan naik 1,76%, sektor konstruksi naik 0,74%, dan sektor aneka industri naik 0,31%. Sektor-sektor di zona merah adalah sektor consumer goods turun 1,28%, sektor agrikultur turun 1,18%, dan sektor perdagangan turun 1,08%. Total perdagangan sebanyak Rp 4,537 triliun. Foreign net buy sebesar Rp 327,99 miliar. Indeks Nikkei turun 0,18%. Indeks Strait times melemah 0,35%. Indeks Hang Seng jatuh 1,11%. Indeks Komposit Shanghai turun 1,11%. Today’s Market: Secara teknikal indeks hari Selasa (4/8) diperkirakan bergerak bergerak mixed di kisaran level 4778-4837. Bursa saham China mengalami pelemahan dengan adanya data caixin china purchasing managers (PMI) bulan Juli yang mencetak terendah selama 2 tahun yakni di level 47,8 (estimasi 48,2). Dari Amerika (AS) merilis data ISM Manufacturing PMI yang berada di level 52,7 (estimasi 54). Bursa saham Amerika ditutup negatif dengan adanya penurunan harga minyak yang disebabkan oleh kelebihan supply dan melambatnya permintaan dari China. Harga crude oil AS melemah 4,14% ke US$ 45,2 per barrel dan dengan adanya produksi dari Iran turut mempengaruhi harga minyak. Harga emas juga tertekan akibat nilai Dollar AS yang menguat. Dari dalam negeri, data inflasi bulan Juli mencapai 0,93% MoM atau 7,26% YoY. Hal ini didukung oleh masa lebaran yang menunjukkan daya beli masyarakat cukup tinggi. Selain itu juga, menantikan dirilisnya data consumer confidence dalam negeri yang sebelumnya dilevel 111,3 dan dirilisnya kinerja perusahaan. Top Technical Buys: SMRA, LPCK, BSDE, BBRI UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2015: ROTI 1,430 See important disclaimer at the end of this report
4 ,8 0 0 .2
4 ,5 9 6 .6 1 1 Da y R e tu rn %
Y TD Ch a n g e %
(0 .0 5 )
(8 .2 )
0 .2 4
(9 .3 )
LQ 4 5
8 15 .1
EIDO
2 2 .3 2
(0 .9 8 )
(18 .7 )
2 0 .1
(0 .9 9 )
(17 .4 )
IDX
17 ,5 9 8 .2
(0 .5 2 )
(1.3 )
S &P 5 0 0
2 ,0 9 8 .0
(0 .2 8 )
1.9
NAS DAQ
5 ,115 .4
(0 .2 5 )
8 .0
DO W J O NES
6 ,6 8 8 .6
(0 .11)
1.9
NIKKEI
2 0 ,5 4 8 .1
(0 .18 )
17 .7
HANG S ENG
2 4 ,6 3 6 .3
(0 .9 1)
3 .4
FTS E
S TRAITS TIMES
3 ,2 0 2 .5
0 .0 0
(5 .1)
KLS E
1,7 4 4 .2
1.2 2
(1.0 )
F O R EX
R a te (ID R )
Ch a n g e %
Y TD Ch a n g e %
US D/IDR
13 ,5 10
(0 .2 1)
(8 .2 )
EUR/IDR
14 ,8 2 4
0 .10
2 .1
J P Y/IDR
10 9
(0 .16 )
(4 .8 )
S G D/IDR
9 ,8 0 5
(0 .2 7 )
(4 .2 )
AUD/IDR
9 ,8 5 3
0 .0 5
3 .5
G BP /IDR
2 1,112
C o mmo d itie s CRUDE O IL (US D)/BARREL CO AL (US D) / MT NATURAL G AS (US D) / mmBtu
P ric e
4 5 .2 5 8 .5
(4 .14 ) -
(8 .2 ) Y TD Ch a n g e % (14 .7 ) (2 0 .8 )
1.18
(4 .5 )
1,0 8 6 .8
(0 .8 2 )
(8 .6 )
NICKEL (US D) / MT
10 ,7 4 5 .0
(2 .6 7 )
(2 8 .9 )
TIN (US D) / MT
16 ,3 0 0 .0
G OLD (US D) / O UNCE
2 .7
0 .19 1 Da y R e tu rn %
0 .7 7
(17 .5 )
2 ,12 0 .0
(0 .19 )
(10 .3 )
RUBBER (J P Y)/KG
18 6 .7
(3 .16 )
(6 .5 )
WHEAT/BUS HEL
4 9 9 .0
(0 .0 5 )
(15 .1)
CO RN/BUS HEL
3 6 6 .5
(1.2 1)
(7 .2 )
CP O (MYR) / MT
Tuesday, August 04, 2015
CORPORATE & INDUSTRY NEWS •
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) berencana menerbitkan obligasi senilai Rp 5 triliun pada awal tahun depan sebagai salah satu sumber pendanaan. Namun perusahaan masih melihat apakah situasi pasar kondusif untuk aksi perusahaan tersebut. Nantinya, penerbitan obligasi tersebut merupakan bagian dari penawaran umum berkelanjutan (PUB) Rp 12 triliun, dimana sebelumnya telah diterbitkan sebesar Rp 7 triliun pada tahap pertama semester I 2015. Dana hasil obligasi akan digunakan untuk pengembangan usaha dan akuisisi beberapa perusahaan baik domestik maupun internasional. (Neutral) Source: Bisnis Indonesia
•
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) tengah mengincar dua proyek pembangkit listrik senilai total US$ 3,2 miliar, atau setara Rp 42,8 triliun. Perusahaan akan didukung induk usaha, Banpu PCL, serta operator pembangkit listrik asal Thailand, Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding PCL. Setelah lolos tahap kualifikasi, perusahaan tengah bersiap mengikuti proses bidding dalam tender PLTU berkapasitas 2x1.000 megawatt (MW) pada Oktober mendatang. Sebelumnya, perusahaan sendiri telah mengikuti serangkaian proses tender untuk pembangunan PLTU Jawa 5 berkapasitas 2x600 MW di Jawa Barat. Adapun ekspansi di bisnis power plant merupakan strategi perusahaan untuk mengantisipasi pelemahan harga batubara dunia. (Positive) Source: Investor Daily
•
PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk (ANTM) mencatat penjualan bersih hingga semester I 2015 sekitar Rp 7,89 triliun, naik signifikan hingga 98% YoY. Hal tersebut didorong oleh peningkatan signifikan penjualan emas. Penjualan emas per Juni 2015 perusahaan tercatat Rp 5,65 triliun, berkontribusi 72% terhadap total penjualan perusahaan. Adapun volume penjualan emas tercatat meningkat 180% YoY menjadi 10.996 kg. Sementara itu, kontributor lain pendapatan perusahaan yakni feronikel, yang meningkat 13% YoY menjadi Rp 1,97 triliun dengan peningkatan volume sebesar 5% menjadi 9.443 ton. (Positive) Source: Investor Daily
•
PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA) antusias mengembangkan bisnis baru di sektor transportasi. Perusahaan tengah bersiap diri menggarap proyek kereta api cepat Jakarta-Bandung setelah mendapat lisensi untuk pengusahaan sarana dan prasarana perkeretaapian. Manajemen perusahaan menargetkan 30% investasi apabila nantinya diberikan komposisi investasi yakni 40% asing dan 60% domestic. Dengan nilai perkiraan investasi mencapai Rp 50 triliun, artinya perusahaan berencana mencapai jatah investasi senilai Rp 9 triliun. Adapun perusahaan berencana menyiapkan dana untuk proyek tersebut, yakni 70% pinjaman perbankan dan 30% dana PMN. (Neutral) Source: Kontan
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
2
Tuesday, August 04, 2015
TRADING VIEW
TRADING VIEW Tuesday, August 4, 2015
These recommendations are more based on technical and just for one day trading RESEARCH DEPARTMENT TICKER
RECOMMENDATION
PRICE
ENTRY
EXIT
S2
S1
R1
R2
EXPLANATION
AGRICULTURE AALI
Trading Sell
BWPT
Buy on Weakness
LSIP
Trading Sell
19800
19800
19500
19250
19500
20050
387
383
390
378
383
390
20350 Black spinning top 395 Stoc osc :uptrend
1320
1320
1300
1280
1300
1350
1380 Black spinning top
BANK & FINANCE BMRI
Trading Buy
9700
9700
9850
9500
9600
9850
9950 Macd : reversal
BBRI
Trading Buy
10450
10450
10600
10150
10300
10600
10750 Macd : uptrend
BBNI
Trading Buy
4815
4815
4845
4735
4790
4845
4870 White spinning top
BBCA
Trading Buy
13250
13250
13350
13050
13150
13350
13500 Stoc osc : uptrend
6000 12650 49375 38875 2585
5925 12500 49250 38650 2585
6100 12750 49875 39175 2615
5850 12400 49000 38450 2530
5925 12500 49250 38650 2560
6100 12750 49875 39175 2615
6200 12925 50000 39475 2640
1380
1380
1400
1350
1370
1400
CONSUMER GOODS INDF ICBP GGRM UNVR CPIN
Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness Buy on Weakness Trading Buy
MAIN
Trading Buy
Long legged doji Stoc osc : uptrend White spinning top Macd : downtrend Macd : reversal
1425 Stoc osc : uptrend
BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY ASII
Trading Buy
6700
6700
6775
6550
6625
6775
6850 Macd : golden cross
SMGR
Buy on Weakness
9850
9775
9950
9700
9775
9950
10125 Black spinning top
INTP
Buy on Weakness
20050
19950
20200
19650
19950
20200
20350 White spinning top
INFRASTRUCTURE TLKM
Buy on Weakness
2920
2890
2940
2850
2890
2940
2970 Stoc osc : uptrend
PGAS
Buy on Weakness
4000
3950
4040
3900
3950
4040
4065 White spinning top
JSMR
Buy on Weakness
5650
5625
5725
5575
5625
5725
5825 Gravestone doji
TBIG
Buy on Weakness
8300
8200
8400
8100
8200
8400
8600 Macd : downtrend
Trading Buy
4760
4760
4775
4690
4735
4775
4800 Morning star
RETAIL MAPI RALS
Buy on Weakness
695
685
705
675
685
705
ACES
Buy on Weakness
630
620
640
600
620
640
720 Black spinning top
MPPA
Trading Sell
2800
2800
2750
2700
2750
2820
2870 Stoc osc : downtrend
PTBA
Trading Sell
5950
5950
5900
5870
5900
6000
6100 Stoc osc : downtrend
ADRO
Trading Sell
570
570
555
540
555
590
610 Rsi : downtrend
ITMG
Buy on Weakness
9725
9650
9800
9550
9650
9800
9900 Rsi : downtrend
660 Rsi : downtrend
MINING
ANTM
Buy on Weakness
479
473
483
469
473
483
TINS
Buy on Weakness
615
605
630
595
605
630
UNTR
Buy on Weakness
19900
19650
20200
19500
19650
20200
492 Macd : downtrend 640 Rsi : uptrend 20500 Stoc osc : uptrend
PROPERTY ASRI
Trading Sell
500
500
490
480
490
510
LPKR
Buy on Weakness
1150
1135
1160
1120
1135
1160
1185 Long legged doji
525 Macd : downtrend
CTRA
Buy on Weakness
1085
1070
1120
1045
1070
1120
1150 Stoc osc : reversal
APLN
Buy on Weakness
361
355
368
348
355
368
376 Black spinning top
SMRA
Trading Buy
1820
1820
1850
1760
1790
1850
1880 Stoc osc : uptrend
SSIA
Buy on Weakness
795
785
810
775
785
810
825 White spinning top
BSDE
Trading Buy
1845
1845
1870
1785
1815
1870
1885 Stoc osc : uptrend
WIKA
Buy on Weakness
2670
2650
2700
2625
2650
2700
2725 White spinning top
PTPP
Buy on Weakness
3855
3825
3865
3800
3825
3865
3920 Macd : downtrend
ADHI
Buy on Weakness
2270
2250
2295
2230
2250
2295
2320 Black spinning top
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
3
Tuesday, August 04, 2015
MARKET DATA Global Equity Indices
De s c rip tio n
YTD Ch a n g e %
4 - Au g - 15
Fo rwa rd 2 0 14 P / E Ra tio (Be s t Es t. )
LQ45 Nikke i 225
(9.3) 17.7
815 20,547
15.2 19.5
JCI FTS E 100 AS X 200 DJIA S &P 500 S TI
(8.2) 1.9 5.7 (1.3) 1.9 (5.1)
4,800 6,689 5,717 17,598 2,098 3,193
15.3 16.3 16.3 15.8 17.7 13.4
CAC 40 S ha ngha i Composite DAX KOS P I Ha ng S e ng Euro S toxx
19.8 12.0 16.7 5.2 3.4 15.5
5,121 3,623 11,444 2,016 24,411 3,635
16.4 15.0 14.3 11.7 11.8 15.6
Selected Indonesian Equities De s c rip tio n
YTD Ch a n g e %
4 - Au g - 15
De s c rip tio n
YTD Ch a n g e %
4 - Au g - 15
AALI ADHI ADRO AKRA
(18.4) (34.8) (45.2) 37.7
19,800 2,270 570 5,675
JS MR KLBF LP KR LP P F
(19.9) (6.6) 12.7 16.0
5,650 1,710 1,150 17,400
ANTM AS II AS RI BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN
(55.0) (9.8) (10.7) 1.0 (21.1) (10.3) (2.9)
479 6,700 500 13,250 4,815 10,450 1,170
LS IP MNCN MP P A P GAS P TBA P TP P P WON
(30.2) (18.5) (8.2) (33.3) (52.4) 7.8 (19.2)
1,320 2,070 2,800 4,000 5,950 3,855 416
BMRI BMTR BS DE CP IN CTRA EXCL
(10.0) (8.4) 2.2 (31.6) (13.2) (36.7)
9,700 1,305 1,845 2,585 1,085 3,080
S CMA S ILO S MGR S MRA S S MS TBIG
(19.1) 20.4 (39.2) 19.7 18.0 (14.4)
2,830 16,500 9,850 1,820 1,965 8,300
GGRM ICBP INCO INDF INTP ITMG
(18.7) (3.4) (46.9) (11.1) (19.8) (36.7)
49,375 12,650 1,925 6,000 20,050 9,725
TLKM UNTR UNVR WIKA WS KT
2.5 14.7 20.4 (27.4) 25.3
2,920 19,900 38,875 2,670 1,795
Sectors De s c rip tio n
1- mth Re tu rn %
JAKP ROP INDEX
P rope rty
(1.9)
JAKBIND INDEX
Ba sic Industry
(8.9)
JAKMANU INDEX JAKFIN INDEX JAKCONS INDEX JAKMIND INDEX JAKINFR INDEX JAKAGRI INDEX JAKMINE INDEX
Tra de Fina nc e Misc e lla ne ous Industry Consume r Infra struc ture Agric ulture Mining
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
(4.2) (3.5) (2.6) (3.6) (3.1) (10.2) (13.5)
4
Tuesday, August 04, 2015
MARKET DATA & CORPORATE INFO Economic Indicators G lo b a l R e fe re n c e Ra te s
%
F O R EX
R a te (US D)
Ch a n g e %
FED Ra te
0 .2 5
US DIDR
13 ,4 9 5
0 .11
BI Ra te
7 .5 0
US DEUR
0 .9 1
0 .13
ECB Ra te
0 .0 5
US DJ P Y
12 4
0 .0 1
BOJ Ra te
0 .10
US DS G D
1.3 8
(0 .14 )
BOE Ra te
0 .5 0
US DAUD
1.3 8
0 .2 9
P BOC Ra te
4 .8 5
US DGBP
0 .6 4
0 .0 6
De s c rip tio n
J u l- 15
J u n - 15
Le n d in g & De p o s it R a te s
In fla tio n YTD (% )
1.9 0
0 .9 6
J IBOR (IDR) (%)
7 .9 0
In fla tio n YO Y (%)
7 .2 6
7 .2 6
LIBOR (G BP ) (%)
1.0 8
0 .9 3
0 .5 4
S IBO R (US D) (%)
1.4 6
10 8 .0 3
110 .7 7
INDO GB 5 Y YIELD (%)
8 .4 7
(0 .18 )
INDO GB 10 Y YIELD (% )
8 .5 6
4 .7 1
INDO GB 15 Y YIELD (% )
8 .8 4
In fla tio n MO M (% ) Fo re ig n Re s e rve s (US D b n ) GDP Gro wth Ra te (% ) GDP An n u a l Gro wth Ra te (% )
D u a l Lis te d
P ric e (ID R)
Ch a n g e %
TLKM (US )
2 ,9 6 8 .9 0
0 .0 0
ANTM (GR)
5 0 1.7 8
13 .3 3
State Budget 2015
2014 INDICATOR
APBNP
APBN
APBN-P
GDP Growth (%, YoY)
5,5
5,8
5,7
Inflation (%, YoY)
5,3
4,4
5,0
11.600
11.900
12.500
3 Months SPN (%)
6.0
6.0
6.2
Indonesian Crude Oil (USD/barrel)
105
105
60
Oil Lifting ( thousands barrel/day)
818
900
825
Gas Lifting (thousands, BOE/day)
1.224
1.248
1.221
Total State Budget (in IDR trillion)
1,635
1,793
1,761
Exchange rate (USD/IDR)
Rights Issue Ticker
Ratio
Price (Rp)
Cum Date
EX Date
Trading
ADHI
100000:76190
2000-2700
TBA
TBA
TBA
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
5
Tuesday, August 04, 2015
http://www.sinarmassekuritas.co.id
Upcoming IPO Company
Bank Harda Internasional Gelombang Seismic Indonesia
Business
IPO Price (Rp)
Issued Shares (Mn)
Offering Date (2015)
Listing
Underwriter
Banking & Finance
115-150
950
4 Aug—6 Aug
12 Aug
Lautandhana Securities
Trade & Service
TBA
150
4 Aug –6 Aug
13 Aug
Panca Global Securities
Dividend Stock
DPS (Rp)
Status
Cum Date (2015)
Ex Date (2015)
Recording
Payment
MTLA
100:1
STOCK
5 August
6 August
10 August
25 August
RESEARCH TEAM ANALYST James Wahjudi Coal and Mining T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 611
[email protected] JUNIOR ANALYST Wilbert Consumer goods and Retail T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 610
[email protected]
ANALYST Evan Hadiwidjaja Banking and Cement T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 610
[email protected]
TECHNICAL ANALYST Eddy Wijaya T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 159
[email protected]
DISCLAIMER This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without notice. For further information please contact our number +62 21 392 5550 or fax +62 21 392 2320.
6
