ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 06 Oktober 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 6

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Saham Asia dan emas melemah di hari Rabu sedangkan yield obligasi bergerak dekat level tertinggi 2 pekan karena pasar terguncang oleh laporan media yang mengisyaratkan kemungkinan penarikan program pembelian obligasi oleh Bank Sentral Eropa. Indeks MSCI untuk saham AsiaPasifik diluar Jepang merosot 0,4% sementara indeks Nikkei ditutup naik 0,5% didukung oleh mlemahnya yen. Adapun pasar Cina tutup sepekan ini. Bloomberg baru-baru ini telah melaporkan bahwa ECB mungkin akan menarik 80 milyar euro (atau setara dengan $90 milyar) dari program pembelian obligasi bulanan secara bertahap sebelum mengakhiri program pelonggaran kuantitatif, menurut pejabat yang tidak ingin disebutkan namanya pada bank sentral negara-negara zona euro. Sementara itu, sejumlah pernyataan hawkish pejabat The Fed kian memperbesar peluang kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember, dengan pasar saat ini memberi peluang sebesar 63%.  Eropa: Laporan mengenai kemungkinan penarikan bertahapan program pembelian obligasi ECB juga turut menekan bursa Eropa di hari Rabu dengan saham utilitas dan properti mendapat pukulan terhebat. Indeks STOXX 600 ditutup melemah 0,6% dan catat penurunan sekitar 6% sepanjang 2016. Bursa Inggris juga melemah pasca tembus rekor tertinggi di hari sebelumnya, dengan saham pertambangan Polymetal terkoreksi karena adanya kekhawatiran tentang pembayaran dividen dan United Utilities terpukul setelah RBC Capital Markets men-downgrade peringkatnya menjadi "underperform". Indeks FTSE ditutup melemah 0,6%.  AS & Global Markets: Indeks utama AS ditutup menguat pada hari Rabu, didukung oleh naiknya saham keuangan ditengah kondisi data ekonomi yang membaik dan juga saham energi setelah harga minyak naik ke level tertinggi Juni. Yield Treasury AS juga naik setelah data menunjukkan sektor jasa AS rebound ke level tertinggi 11 bulan di bulan September, sebuah indikasi membaiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penurunan stok minyak AS selama 5 pekan berturut-turut dan harapan akan dicapainya kesepakatan diantara produsen minyak dunia untuk memangkas produksi minyaknya bulan depan telah mendorong kenaikan harga minyak ke level tertinggi sejak Juni. Dolar bergerak tipis terhadap sejumlah rivalnya sementara sterling berhasil rebound 0,2% setelah terkoreksi di bawah $1.27 dan menembus level terendah 3 dekade terhadap dolar.  Weekahead: Fokus utama pasar pekan ini akan tertuju pada sejumlah data ekonomi AS yang akan mencapai puncaknya pada rilis data non-farm payrolls untuk melihat peluang kenaikan suku bunga AS pada sidang The Fed 13-14 Desember. Juga akan ada update untuk ekonomi AS oleh IMF, dimana estimasi PDB 2016 akan diturunkan lagi setelah memangkasnya menjadi 2,2% dari 2,4% di bulan Juli. Dari Eropa, pasar akan mengikuti terus perkembangan langkah penyelesaian masalah yang menimpa Deutsche Bank.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 262.10 (07/Sep/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18668.44 (15/Aug/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2193.81 (15/Aug/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 05 Oktober 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

18281.03 2159.73 5316.020 103.49 1114.01

CHANGE     

112.58/ 0.62% 9.24 / 0.43% 26.363 / 0.50% 0.61/ 0.59% 1.56 / 0.14%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

16819.24 258.99 23788.31 HOLIDAY 49.70

CHANGE     

83.59/0.50% 0.19/0.07% 98.87/0.42% 7.02570/0.23% 1.01/ 2.07%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

INDICATORS

PER

ACTUAL

Mon/03-Oct

05:30 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 07:30 20:45 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 All Day 06:00 07:30 07:30 07:30 10:30 12:00 20.45 20.45 All Day 05:30 06:00 06:00 07:30 09.30 19:15 19:30 20:45 20:45 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:30 21:30 21:30 All Day : 04:00 07:30 07:30 07:30

AU JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP US US US US US US CN KR AU AU AU AU JP US US CN AU KR KR AU HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US CN CN KR AU AU AU

AIG Manufacturing Index Tankan Big Mf Index Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI Tankan Big Non-Mf Index Tankan big non-mf outlook Tankan All Big Capex Est Tankan Small Mf Index Tankan Small Mf Outlook DI Tankan Small Non-Mf Index Tankan Small non-mf outlook Tankan All Small Capex Est Nikkei Mfg PMI Markit Mfg PMI Final Construction Spending MM ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Mfg Prices Paid ISM Manufacturing Employment Idx ISM Manufacturing New Orders Idx National Day/Bank Holiday Current Account Balance Building Approvals* Private House Approvals ANZ Internet Job Ads RBA Cash Rate* Consumer Confidence Index* ISM-New York Index ISM-NY Biz Conditions National Day/Bank Holiday AIG Services Index CPI Growth* CPI Growth YY* Retail Sales MM* Nikkei PMI ADP National Employment International Trade MM $ Markit Services PMI Final Markit Comp Final PMI Durables Ex-Def, R MM Durable Goods, R MM Factory Orders MM Durables Ex-Transport R MM Non defense Cap Ex-Air R MM Factory Ex-Transport MM ISM N-Mfg PMI ISM N-Mfg Bus Act ISM N-Mfg Employment Index ISM N-Mfg New Orders Index ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Index EIA Weekly Crude Stocks EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks EIA Weekly Gasoline Stocks National Day/Bank Holiday FX Reserves (Monthly)* FX Reserves* Trade Balance G&S (A$)* Goods/Services Imports* Goods/Services Exports*

Sep Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Sep Sep Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep

Tue/04-Oct

Wed/05-Oct

06~07Oct Thu/06-Oct

FORECAST

LAST

49.8 6 6 18 16 6.3 -3 -5 1 -2 -9.0 50.4 51.5 -0.7 51.5 53.0 49.7 55.1

N/A 7 8 18 18 6.8 -5 -6 -1 -3 -8.4 50.3 51.4 -0.2 50.3 52.9 49.0 N/A

ind ind ind ind ind % ind ind ind ind % ind ind % ind ind ind ind

46.9 6 6 19 17 6.2 -5 -7 0 -4 -14.9 50.3 51.4 0.0 49.4 53.0 48.3 49.1

Aug Aug Aug Sep Oct Sep Sep Sep

5.79 -1.8 -1.3 -0.3 1.50 43.0 719.7 49.6

N/A -7.0 N/A N/A 1.50 41.8 N/A N/A

b % % % % ind ind ind

8.32 11.3 -0.5 1.8 1.50 42.0 719.9 47.5

Sep Sep Sep Aug Sep Sep Aug Sep Sep Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep w/e w/e w/e

48.9 0.6 1.2 0.4 49.3 154.0 -40.73 52.3 52.3 -0.8 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.0 57.1 60.3 57.2 60.0 54.0 -2.976 -2.359 0.222

N/A 0.20 0.80 0.2 N/A 166 -39.3 51.9 N/A N/A N/A -0.1 N/A N/A N/A 53.0 52.2 N/A N/A N/A 2.560 -0.700 0.702

ind % % % ind k b ind ind % % % % % % ind ind ind ind ind m m m

45.0 -0.1 0.4 0.0 49.0 177 -39.5 51.9 52.0 -1.0 0.0 1.9 -0.4 0.6 0.2 51.4 51.8 50.7 51.4 51.8 -1.882 -1.915 2.027

N/A N/A -2300 N/A N/A

t b m % %

3.19 375.46 -2410 0.0 3.0

Sep Sep Aug Aug Aug

377.77

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

REV

-0.3

8.29 12.0 -0.1

175.0 -39.55

1.4

-0.1



Fri/07-Oct

Sat/08-Oct

18.30 19:30 19.30 19.30 All Day 05:30 06:50 07:00 12:00 12:00 15:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 21:00 21:00 All Day 02:00 08:45

US US US US CN AU JP JP JP JP HK US US US US US US US US US US US CN US CN

Challenger Layoffs Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims National Day/Bank Holiday AIG Construction Index Foreign Reserves Overtime Pay Coincident Indicator MM* Leading Indicator* FX Reserves Non-Farm Payrolls Private Payrolls Manufacturing Payrolls Government Payrolls Unemployment Rate Average Earnings MM Average Workweek Hrs Labor Force Participation U6 Underemployment Wholesale Inventory (y), R MM Wholesale Sales MM National Day/Bank Holiday Consumer Credit Caixin Services PMI

Sep w/e w/e w/e

N/A 257 N/A 2.090

k k k m

32.188 254 256.00 2.062

Sep Sep Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Aug Aug

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 175 170 -5 N/A 4.9 0.2 34.4 N/A N/A -0.1 0.2

ind b % ind ind b k k k k % % h % % % %

46.6 1256.1 -1.8 0.7 -0.7 362.70 151 126 -14 25 4.9 0.1 34.3 62.8 9.7 -0.1 -0.4

Aug Sep

16.50 N/A

b ind

17.71 52.1

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset,@her1en)




SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Dec. 2016

 Reli berlanjut mendekati level psikologi 17000  Hourly trend bullish namun RSI sudah overbought  Short-term support di 16745 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

05 Oct SSIpmZ6 05 Oct SSIamZ6 04 Oct SSIpmZ6 04 Oct SSIamZ6 03 Oct SSIpmZ6 03 Oct SSIamZ6 30 Sep SSIpmZ6 30 Sep SSIamZ6 29 Sep SSIpmZ6 29 Sep SSIamZ6

16770 16755 16745 16620 16575 16615 16365 16460 16670 16585

16945 16845 16855 16735 16615 16645 16590 16490 16700 16745

16750 16710 16705 16605 16525 16545 16315 16365 16455 16580

195 135 150 130 90 100 275 125 245 165

16930 16775 16730 16715 16580 16585 16585 16370 16465 16685

--16775 --16715 --16585 --16370 --16685

WEEKLY

OCTOBER

CHANGE          

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.92 0.36 0.09 0.78 0.03 1.31 1.31 1.89 1.32 1.46

14629 43105 21827 45634 12246 36556 23531 65194 15355 52996

155 60 15 130 5 215 215 315 220 240

SEPTEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

16945 (05/Oct)

16525 (03/Oct)

16945 (05/Oct)

16525 (03/Oct)

17165 (02/Sep)

16150 (27/Sep)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

17260

High 31/May/2016 (Peak)

17165

Peak level (1-H chart)

17100


17025


16750

Reaction low (1-H chart)

16700


16485

Pivot line (1-H chart)

16310


BUY

16880

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

16730

TARGET


17000 17060



KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Dec. 2016

 Masih bergerak di kisaran 256.50 – 260.50  Rebound berpotensi uji trendline resistance di sekitar 261.50  Area support di 256.70 – 255.90 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

05 Oct 04 Oct 03 Oct 30 Sep 29 Sep 28 Sep

257.75 259.45

260.00 260.40 H 259.75 261.65 259.80

257.00 259.00 O 257.80 260.05 258.80

3.00 1.40 L 1.95 1.60 1.00

259.55 259.50 I 258.20 261.05 258.90

259.55 259.50 D 258.20 261.05 258.90

 0.05  1.30 A  2.85  2.15  1.50

0.02 0.50 Y 1.09 0.83 0.58

259.00 260.15 259.60

WEEKLY

OCTOBER

SEPTEMBER

VOLUME 111862 75382 110896 100449 66373

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

260.40 (04/Oct)

257.00 (05/Oct)

260.40 (04/Oct)

257.00 (05/Oct)

262.50 (08/Sep)

251.00 (19/Sep)

262.50 (08/Sep)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

264.15

High 27/May/2015

262.40

High 29/May/2015 (Reaction high)

262.10

High 07/Sep/2016 (Peak)

261.65

High 29/Sep/2016

257.00

Low 05/Oct/2016

256.70

Pivot line

255.90

Low 27/Sep/2016

254.70

Low 21/Sep/2016

BUY

259.00

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

257.00

TARGET


260.80 261.70



HSIV6 (Hang Seng Oct Futures) – Exp. Date: 28 October 2016

 Area upperline dari pola symmetrical triangle pecah  Daily trend bullish  Reli berpotensi uji level psikologi di 24000 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

05 Oct 04 Oct 03 Oct 30 Sep (HSIV6) 29 Sep (HSIV6) 28 Sep (HSIV6) 28 Sep (HSIU6)

23552 23577 23596 23504 23780 23515 23518

23843 23688 23732 23511 23846 23653 23658

23508 23501 23495 23200 23600 23351 23364

335 187 237 311 246 302 294

23750 23682 23584 23313 23710 23636 23641

23750 23682 23584 23313 23710 23636 23641

WEEKLY

OCTOBER

CHANGE       

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.29 0.42 1.16 1.67 0.31 0.06 0.08

101781 80626 93310 127493 107263 92779 138943

68 98 271 397 74 15 19

SEPTEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

23843 (05/Oct)

23495 (03/Oct)

23843 (05/Oct)

23495 (03/Oct)

24374 (09/Sep)

22958 (01/Sep)

24374 (09/Sep)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

24374

High 09/Sep/2016

24102

High 12/Sep/2016

24084

Reaction high (1-H chart)

23986

Reaction high (1-H chart)

23680


23508


23495


23356


BUY

23745

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

23650

TARGET


23950 24035

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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