Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 07 Februari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf
Page 1 of 6
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Saham Asia rebound pada hari Senin menyusul Wall Street raih momentumnya dalam pekan yang penuh dengan laporan earnings. Naiknya saham Taiwan sebesar 0,9% memberi dukungan utama bagi naiknya indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang. Sementara Nikkei naik 0,2% didukung oleh naiknya saham perbankan, setelah Presiden AS Donald Trump memerintahkan untuk menata ulang regulasi dalam industri keuangan usai krisis keuangan hampir 1 dekade lalu. Trump akan bertemu dengan PM Shinzo Abe pada 10-11 Februari mendatang dengan agenda masalah perdagangan dan mata uang. Eropa: Bursa Eropa melemah pada hari Senin, tertekan oleh saham otomotif dan perbankan. Indeks STOXX 600 turun 0,6% sementara FTSE 100 Inggris juga terkoreksi oleh melemahnya saham energi dan perumahan. Indeks FTSE 100 ditutup melemah 0,2% pasca hit intraday high di 7208,73 (level tertinggi sejak 20 Januari). AS & Global Markets: Bursa AS jatuh di hari Senin kemarin dipimpin oleh turunnya saham sektor energi menyusul merosotnya harga minyak. Saham eropa dan euro juga tertekan oleh ketidakpastian politik global. Investor menunggu rincian lebih lanjut tentang kebijakan ekonomi Presiden Donald Trump, sementara kekhawatiran tetap berlanjut atas politik Perancis menjelang pemilihan presiden pada bulan April. Weekahead: Minggu ini fokus pasar akan tertuju pada data ekonomi Cina, seperti indeks PMI sektor jasa, cadangan devisa dan mungkin angka perdagangan. China tumbuh lebih cepat dari yang diperkirakan 6,8 persen pada kuartal keempat, didorong oleh belanja pemerintah yang lebih tinggi dan besarnya pinjaman perbankan. Tapi ekonomi masih menghadapi resiko dari pendinginan pasar perumahan dan kemungkinan langkah-langkah proteksionis dari Amerika Serikat. Di zona euro, akan ada data produksi industri dari Jerman, Perancis, Spanyol dan Italia. Semuanya diharapkan menunjukkan pertumbuhan.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2016 HIGH 2017 HIGH 2017 LOW 2016 LOW RECORD LOW
.N225
.KS200
.HSI
.DJI
/.SPX
/.SSEC
38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 19592.90 (21/Dec/16) 19999.63 (06/Jan/2017)
295.51 (03/May/11) 264.42 (21/Dec/16) 271.25 (02/Feb/2017)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16) 23439.02 (02/Feb/2017)
20125.58 (26/Jan/2017) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 20125.58 (26/Jan/2017)
2300.99 (26/Jan/2017) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 2300.99 (26/Jan/2017)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 3174.57810 (10/Jan/2017)
18650.33 (18/Jan/2017) 14864.01 (24/Jun/16)
258.64 (02/Jan/2017) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)
21883.82 (03/Jan/2017) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16)
19677.94 (19/Jan/2017) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
2245.13 (03/Jan/2017) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)
3044.29120 (16/Jan/2017) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
85.25 (06/Jul/50)
58.61 (31/Aug/67)
Closing Prices – 06 February 2017 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=
20052.42 2292.56 5663.552 111.71 1133.59
CHANGE
19.04/ 0.09% 4.86/ 0.21% 3.214/ 0.06% 0.99/ 0.88% 3.92 / 0.34%
CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)
18976.71 269.49 23348.24 3157.37280 53.10
CHANGE
58.51/0.31% 0.64/0.24% 219.03/0.95% 17.20280/0.55% 0.73/1.36%
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 07 Februari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE
WIB
CTY
INDICATORS
PER
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREV.
MON/06-Feb-17
07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:30 07:30 07:30 14:00 14:00 15:30 16:10 16:10 16:30 22:00 06:50 06:50 06:50 07:01 08:00 08:45 09:00 10:30 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:30 13:45 14:00 14:00 15:00 15:30 15:30 15:30 16:30 19:00 19:00 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 02:00 03:00 04:45 05:30 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 09:00 10:00 20:15 22:30 22:30
AU AU JP JP JP AU AU AU DE DE DE EZ DE EZ US JP JP JP GB CN CN NZ AU JP JP JP AU CH DE DE CH HK GB GB GB NZ NZ CA CA CA CA CA CA US NZ US NZ AU JP JP JP JP CN KR CA US US
Melbourne Institute Inflation MoM Melbourne Institute Inflation YoY Overtime Pay Labor Cash Earnings YoY Real Cash Earnings YoY ANZ Internet Job Ads Retail Sales MoM Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ Factory Orders MoM Factory Orders WDA YoY Markit Germany Construction PMI Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Markit Germany Retail PMI Sentix Investor Confidence Employment Trends Official Reserve Assets Current Account NSA JPY Bank Lending YY BRC Retail Sales YY Foreign Reserves (Monthly) Caixin China PMI Services 2Yr Inflation Expectation RBA Cash Rate Target Economy Watchers Poll SA Coincident Indicator MM Leading Indicator Foreign Reserves Consumer Confidence Industrial Production SA MoM Industrial Production WDA YoY Foreign Currency Reserves Foreign Reserves Halifax House Price MM Halifax House Price 3Mths/YY Mortgage Rate Dairy Prices Milk Auctions Building Permits MoM Trade Balance C$ Exports C$ Imports C$ Ivey PMI Ivey PMI SA Trade Balance Cen Bank Interest Rate Consumer Credit Building Consents AIG Construction Index BOJ Summary of Opinions at Jan. 30-31 Meeting BoP Current Account Balance BoP Current Account Adjusted Trade Balance BoP Basis BoP Current Account Balance L-Money Supply Growth Housing Starts. Annualized EIA Weekly Crude Stocks EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks
Jan Jan Dec Dec Dec Jan Dec Q4 Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Feb Jan Jan Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Q1 7-Feb Jan Dec Dec Jan Q1 Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan w/e w/e Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Dec N/A Dec Dec Jan
0.6% 2.1% -1.9% 0.1% -0.4% 4.0% -0.1% 0.9% 5.2% 8.1% 52.0 50.1 50.3 17.4 130.04
------0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 4.2% ---17.4 --1294.5b -0.8% ---1.50% -----0.4% ---0.0% 6.0% ----0.35b -----$45.0b -$20.00b ---
0.5% 1.8% -1.3% 0.2% -0.2% -1.9% 0.2% -0.1% -2.5% 3.0% 54.9 50.4 52 18.2 129.6 $1216.9b 1415.5b 2.6% 1.0% 3.011t 53.4 1.68% 1.50% 51.4 1.6 1.9 A$76.1b -13 0.4% 2.2% 645.3b $386.20b 6.5% 6.5% 4.3% 0.6% 3517.0T -0.1% 0.53b 45.61b 45.09b 49.4 60.8 -$45.2b 1.75% $24.53b -9.2% 47.0
¥1171.7b ¥1706.6b ¥770.0b ------
¥1415.5b ¥1799.6b ¥313.4b $69.3b 8.0% 184.0k 6.466m 1.568m
TUE/07-Feb-17
07~10 Feb
07~15 Feb
WED/08-Feb-17
Dec Dec Dec Q4 Dec Jan w/e w/e
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
REV.
0. 0.0% -3.6% 2.0%
129.73
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 07 Februari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 6
THU/09-Feb-17
FRI/10-Feb-17
SAT/11-Feb-17
22:30 03:00 04:45 06:50 06:50 07:00 07:30 13:00 13:45 13:45 14:00 14:00 14:00 14:00 16:00 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 21:10 22:00 22:00 01:10 06:50 06:50 07:30 07:30 07:30 11:30 16:30 16:30 16:30 16:30 16:30 16:30 16:30 16:30 16:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 01:00 02:00 19:30
US NZ NZ JP JP AU AU JP CH CH DE DE DE DE AU CA CA US US US US US US US JP JP AU AU AU JP GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB CA CA CA CA CA US US GB US US US US US US
EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e RBNZ Official Cash Rate 9-Feb Building Permits MoM Dec Machine Orders MoM Dec Machine Orders YoY Dec HIA New Home Sales MoM Dec NAB Business Confidence Q4 Machine Tool Orders YoY Jan Unemployment Rate Jan Unemployment Rate SA Jan Trade Balance Dec Current Account Balance Dec Exports SA MoM Dec Imports SA MoM Dec RBA Governor Lowe Speech in Sydney New Housing Price Index MoM Dec New Housing Price Index YoY Dec Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e Continuing Jobless Claims w/e Fed's Bullard Speaks in St. Louis Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Dec Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Chicago PPI MoM Jan PPI YoY Jan RBA Statement on Monetary Policy Home Loans MoM Dec Investment Lending Dec Tertiary Industry Index MoM Dec Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Dec Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Dec Trade Balance Dec Industrial Production MoM Dec Industrial Production YoY Dec Manufacturing Production MoM Dec Manufacturing Production YoY Dec Construction Output SA MoM Dec Construction Output SA YoY Dec Unemployment Rate Jan Net Change in Employment Jan Full Time Employment Change Jan Part Time Employment Change Jan Participation Rate Jan Import Price Index MoM Jan Export Price Index MoM Jan NIESR GDP Estimate Jan U. of Mich. Sentiment Prelim Feb U. of Mich. Current Conditions Prelim Feb U. of Mich. Expectations Prelim Feb Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 10-Feb Federal Budget. $ Jan Fed's Fischer to Address Economics Conference in U.K.
-1.75% -3.1% 4.6% ---3.6% 3.3% 21.4b --1.10% -1.0%
3.866m 1.75% -9.20% -5.1% 10.4% 6.1% 5 4.4% 3.5% 3.3% 21.7b 24.6b 3.90% 3.5%
--250k -2.060k
0.2% 3.0% 246k 248k 2.064m
0.5% 1.0%
0.4% 1.0%
0.2% 0.0%
0.6% -1.2%
1.0% --0.2% -£1145 -£330 -0.2% 3.2% 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% -0.5% -----0.2% 0.1% -97.9 110.9 89.0 ---
0.9% 4.9% 0.2% -£12163 -£3577 -£4167 2.1% 2.0% 1.3% 1.2% -0.2% 1.5% 6.9% 53.7k 81.3k -27.6k 65.80% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 98.5 111.3 90.3 --28.0b
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 07 Februari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 6
SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Koreksi breakout area support di 18800, hit low di 18795 Waspadai RSI dekat zona oversold Short-term resistance di sekitar 19095 – 19285 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
06 Feb SSIpmH7 06 Feb SSIamH7 03 Feb SSIpmH7 03 Feb SSIamH7 02 Feb SSIpmH7 02 Feb SSIamH7 01 Feb SSIpmH7 01 Feb SSIamH7 31 Jan SSIpmH7 31 Jan SSIamH7
18960 19090 18955 19070 18950 19155 19205 18970 19015 19130
19025 19095 19095 19075 19045 19165 19285 19210 19110 19190
18795 18885 18950 18800 18890 18850 19125 18900 18815 18955
230 210 145 275 155 315 160 310 295 235
18840 18950 19060 18955 19040 18945 19185 19205 18985 18990
--18950 --18955 --18945 --19205 --18990
110 5 105 10 95 260 20 215 5 335
0.58 0.03 0.55 0.05 0.50 1.35 0.10 1.13 0.03 1.73
17005 41200 22278 64545 23424 52018 21859 51197 35236 67637
WEEKLY
FEBRUARY
JANUARY
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
19095 (06/Feb)
18795 (06/Feb)
19285 (01/Feb)
18795 (06/Feb)
19695 (09/Jan)
18635 (18/Jan)
19695 (09/Jan)
18635 (18/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
19555
Reaction high (1-H chart)
19390
Crucial resistance
19285
Pivot line (1-H chart)
19095
Reaction high (1-H chart)
18795
Reaction low (1-H chart)
18750
Pivot line (1-D chart)
18565
Pivot line (1-D chart)
18490
Low 08/Dec/2016
BUY
----
SELL
18945
STOP LOSS
19100
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
18815 18725
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 07 Februari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 5 of 6
KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Rebound dekati area 272, hit high di 271.70 Waspadai RSI dekat zona overbought Trendline support di sekitar 268.30 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
06 Feb 03 Feb 02 Feb 01 Feb 31 Jan 27~30 Jan
271.30 269.70 269.95 269.60 269.90
271.70 269.95 271.60 270.30 270.30 H
269.20 267.90 268.50 269.45 268.95 O
2.50 2.05 3.10 0.85 1.35 L
270.05 269.80 269.20 270.20 269.20 I
270.05 269.80 269.20 270.20 269.20 D
WEEKLY
FEBRUARY
CHANGE
0.25 0.60 1.00 1.00 1.80 A
% CHANGE
VOLUME
0.09 0.22 0.37 0.37 0.66 Y
JANUARY
113320 116593 116104 61713 80052
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
271.70 (06/Feb)
269.20 (06/Feb)
271.70 (06/Feb)
267.90 (03/Feb)
271.50 (26/Jan)
259.25 (02/Jan)
271.70 (06/Feb)
259.25 (02/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
276.25
High 24/Apr/2015 (Peak)
273.35
High 27/Apr/2015
272.35
High 28/Apr/2015
271.70
High 06/Feb/2017
267.90
Low 03/Feb/2017
266.90
Reaction low (1-H chart)
265.90
Low 23/Jan/2017
264.15
Low 11/Jan/2017
BUY
268.75
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
267.75
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
270.65 272.10
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 07 Februari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 6 of 6
HSIG7 (Hang Seng Feb Futures) – Exp. Date: 27 February 2017
Area krusial di 23150 diuji lagi Rebound hadapi trendline resistance di sekitar 23550 Sedangkan trendline support di sekitar 23000 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
06 Feb 03 Feb 02 Feb 01 Feb 30~31 Jan 27 Jan (HSIG7) 26 Jan (HSIG7)
23136 23198 23270 23199
23298 23205 23404 23332 H 23359 23392
23071 22914 23048 23028 O 23236 23100
227 291 356 304 L 123 292
23250 23026 23127 23319 I 23345 23366
23250 23026 23127 23319 D 23332 23365
224 101 192 26 A 21 365
0.97 0.44 0.82 0.11 Y 0.09 1.59
23250 23160
WEEKLY
FEBRUARY
JANUARY
VOLUME 76908 67503 72534 66254 33040 69167
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
23298 (06/Feb)
23071 (06/Feb)
23404 (02/Feb)
22914 (03/Feb)
23392 (26/Jan)
21863 (03/Jan)
23404 (02/Feb)
21863 (03/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
24077
High 11/Oct/2016
23653
High 25/Oct/2016 (Peak)
23550
Trendline resistance
23422
Reaction high (1-D chart)
23071
Reaction low (1-H chart)
22914
Low 03/Feb/2017
22853
Low 23/Jan/2017 (Bottom)
22671
Low 16/Jan/2017 (Bottom)
BUY
23150
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
23050
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
23315 23475
