ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Senin 23 Mei 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 6

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Bursa saham Asia menguat pada hari Jumat, sementara dolar terangkat oleh spekulasi bahwa Federal Reserve AS bisa menaikkan suku bunga pada awal bulan depan. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,7%, meskipun masih turun 0,2% dalam sepekan dan mencatat turun 4,2% tahun ini. Indeks Nikkei Jepang menghapus kerugian dan ditutup menguat 0,5%, memperpanjang kenaikan dalam sepekan menjadi 2% dipicu pelemahan yen atas dolar. Sementara indeks CSI 300 dan Komposit Shanghai Cina menyerahkan keuntungan sebelumnya seiring meredanya optimisme terhadap prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi negara tersebut. Sedangkan saham Hang Seng bertambah 1,1%.  Eropa: Bursa Eropa menguat pada hari Jumat dipimpin saham sektor pertambangan dan keuangan, seiring naiknya harga logam. Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 naik 1,3% ke 1326,45 sementara indeks bule-chip kawasan yaitu indeks Euro STOXX 50 bertambah 1,5%. Bursa saham Inggris juga berhasil menguat tajam dipimpin reli pada saham Coca-Cola HBC berkat prospek sebuah margin recovery dan sebagian saham komoditas rebound pasca terjungkal dalam 2 sesi terakhir. Indeks FTSE 100 ditutup naik 1,7%, merupakan prosentase kenaikan terbesarnya sejak medio April. Namun indeks masih mencatat turun 1,4% sepanjang tahun ini.  AS & Global Markets: Bursa saham global menguat pada hari Jumat setelah investor melihat kemungkinan The Fed menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni (peluangnya sebesar 30%), sebuah pandangan yang telah mengangkat yield Treasury AS dan dolar ke penguatan 3 pekan berturut-turut. Data perumahan AS bulan April dirilis naik, indikasi bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS berlanjut selama kuartal kedua. Data ini memperkuat ekspektasi kemungkinan terjadi kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni atau Juli. Wall Street menguat mengkuti bursa Eropa dengan indeks sektor keuangan S&P naik 0,61%. Menguatnya dolar telah menekan harga minyak dan juga emas. Emas melemah dalam 3 sesi berturut-turut dan mencatat penurunan mingguan terbesarnya dalam hampir 2 bulan, seiring ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed.  Global Economy Weekahead: Investor akan mencermati sejumlah pernyataan petinggi Fed pekan ini untuk melihat seberapa cepat mereka akan menaikkan suku bunga, demikian juga dengan sidang para menteri keuangan Eurogroup pada hari Selasa mengenai kesepakatan pemberian bailout kepada Yunani. Fokus perhatian akan tertuju pada pernyataan Kepala Fed Janet Yellen di sebuah acara panel yang diselenggarakan oleh Harvard University pada hari Jumat. Dengan tidak adanya rilis data PDB-Q2 AS hingga akhir Juli nanti, maka pasar akan mencermati data revisi pertama PDB-Q1 pada hari Jumat. Sementara berkenaan dengan referendum Brexit dan dampaknya, maka data PDB-Q1 Inggris (Kamis) akan dicermati untuk melihat dampak yang terjadi pada investasi bisnis. Sidang bank sentral Kanada pada hari Rabu diprediksi unchanged meskipun terjadi kenaikan pada data inflasi tahunan di bulan April.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 249.56 (20/Apr/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 21794.84 (04/Jan/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18167.63 (20/Apr/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2111.05 (20/Apr/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14865.77 (12/Feb/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 20 Mei 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

17500.94 2052.32 4769.558 110.14 1185.20

CHANGE     

65.54 / 0.38% 12.28 / 0.60% 57.025 / 1.21% 0.19 / 0.17% 1.28 / 0.11%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

16736.35 238.74 19852.20 2825.93910 47.75

CHANGE     

89.69/0.54% 0.30/0.13% 157.87/0.80% 19.03300/0.68% 0.41 / 0.85%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

MON/16-May

N/A N/A N/A 06.50 06.50 19.30 21.00 03.00 03.00 03.00 03.00 08.30 08.30 11.30 11.30 15.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 20.15 20.15 20.15 22.30 06.50 06.50 06.50 06.50 06.50 08.30 08.30 08.30 21.30 01.00 04.00 04.00 06.50 06.50 08.30 08.30 08.30 08.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 21.00

KR KR KR JP JP US US US US US US AU AU JP JP HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US JP JP JP JP JP CN AU AU US US KR KR JP JP AU AU AU AU US US US US US US US US

TUE/17-May

WED/18-May

THU/19-May

INDICATORS Export Growth Revised Import Growth Revised Trade Balance Revised Corp Goods Price MM Corp Goods Price YY NY Fed Manufacturing NAHB Housing Market Idx Net L-T Flows Exswaps Foreign Buying T-Bonds Overall Net Capital Flow Net L-T Flows Incl. Swaps New Motor Vehicle Sales RBA Minutes Industrial Output Rev Capacity Util. Idx Chg. MM Unemployment Rate CPI MM SA CPI YY NSA Core CPI MM SA Core CPI YY NSA CPI Index NSA Core CPI Index SA Real Weekly Earnings MM Building Permits: Number Build Permits: Chg. MM Housing Starts Number MM House Starts MM: Chg. Industrial Output MM Capacity Utilization MM Manuf Output MM Cleveland Fed CPI GDP QQ GDP QQ Annualised GDP QQ Pvt Consump Prelim GDP QQ Capital Expend GDP QQ External Demand China House Prices YY Wage Price Index QQ Wage Price Index YY EIA Crude Inventories FOMC Minutes PPI Growth YY PPI Growth Machinery Orders MM Machinery Orders YY Employment Full Time Employment Participation Rate Unemployment Rate Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims National Activity Index Philly Fed Business Index Philly Fed Employment Philly Fed Prices Paid Leading Index Chg MM

PER

ACTUAL

FORECAST

LAST

Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr May May Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr

-11.2 -14.9 8.8 -0.3 -4.2 -9.02 58 78.1 23.6 -98.3 64.6 -2.5

N/A N/A N/A 0.2 -3.7 6.50 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

% % B % % IND IND B B B B %

-11.2 -14.9 8.80 -0.1 -3.8 9.56 58 72.0 9.9 33.5 60.9 2.2

Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Apr Q1 Q1 w/e

3.8 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.1 0.2 2.1 239.26 246.57 0.2 1.116 3.6 1.172 6.6 0.7 75.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.7 0.5 -1.4 0.2 6.2 0.4 2.1 1.31

3.6 N/A N/A 0.3 1.1 0.2 2.1 239.10 N/A N/A 1.130 4.3 1.127 2.9 0.3 75.0 0.3 N/A 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.8 0.1 N/A 0.5 2.2 -2.833

% % % % % % % IND IND % M % M % % % % % % % % % % % % % M

3.6 -5.4 3.4 0.1 0.9 0.1 2.2 238.13 246.10 0.2 1.076 -8.6 1.089 -8.8 -0.6 74.8 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 -1.1 -0.9 1.5 0.1 4.9 0.5 2.2 -3.410

Apr Apr Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr W/E W/E W/E Apr May May May Apr

-3.1 0.2 5.5 3.2 10.8 -9.3 64.8 5.7 278 275.75 2.152 0.10 -1.8 -3.3 15.7 0.6

N/A N/A 0.5 0.8 12.5 N/A 64.9 5.8 275 N/A 2.163 N/A 3.5 N/A N/A 0.4

% % % % K K % % K K M IND IND IND IND %

-3.3 -0.1 -9.2 -0.7 26.1 -8.8 64.9 5.7 294 268.25 2.161 -0.44 -1.6 -18.50 13.20 0.2

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

REV

72.6 31.7 61.5

0.1 1.077 -7.3 1.099 -9.4 -0.9 74.9

-0.4 -1.7 -0.8 1.2

25.7 -10.1

2.165 -0.55

0.0



FRI/20-May

21.30 21.00 21.00

US US US

DATE

WIB

CTY

MON/23-May

06.50 06.50 06.50 09.00 15.15 15.30 20.45 10.05 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 08.30 18.30 18.30 19.30 20.00 20.00 20.00 21.30 04.00 04.00 06.30 08.30 08.30 08.30 15.30 15.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 20.45 20.45 21.00 21.00 22.00 22.00 06.30 06.30 06.30 06.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 21.00 21.00 21.00

JP JP JP JP US HK US AU US US US US AU US US US US US US US KR KR JP AU AU AU HK HK US US US US US US US US US US JP JP JP JP US US US US US US US US US US

TUE/24-May

WED/25-May

THU/26-May

FRI/27-May

FOMC Dudley Speaks Existing Home Sales Exist. Home Sales % Chg.

INDICATORS Exports YY Imports YY Trade Balance Total Yen Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash FOMC Bullard Speaks Consumer Price Index Markit Mfg PMI Flash RBA Stevens Speaks New Home Sales-Units New Home Sales Chg MM Rich Fed Comp Indx Rich Fed Services Index Construction Work Done Build Permits R Numb. MM Build Permits R Chg. MM Adv Goods Trade Balance Monthly Home Price MM Monthly Home Price YY Monthly Home Price Index EIA Crude Inventories BoK Manufacturing BSI Consumer Sentiment Ind Reuters Tankan DI Capital Expenditure Building Capex Plant/Machinery Capex Imports Exports Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims Durable Goods Markit Comp Flash PMI Markit Svcs PMI Flash Pending Homes Index Pending Sales Chg. KC Fed Manufacturing KC Fed Composite Index CPI Core Nationwide YY CPI Overall Nationwide CPI Core Tokyo YY CPI Overall Tokyo Corporate Profits Prelim GDP 2nd Estimate GDP Sales Prelim GDP Cons Spending Prelim GDP Deflator Prelim Core PCE Prices Prelim PCE Prices Prelim UoM Sentiment Final UoM Conditions Final UoM Expectations Final

Apr Apr

5.45 1.7

PER

ACTUAL

5.40 1.3

M %

FORECAST

5.33 5.1

5.36 5.7

LAST

REV

Apr Apr Apr May

-10 -19 492.8 48.3

% % B IND

-6.8 -14.9 755 48.2

Apr May

N/A 51.0

% IND

3.0 50.8

Apr Apr May May Q1 Apr Apr Apr Mar Mar Mar w/e Jun May May Q1 Q1 Q1 Apr Apr W/E W/E W/E Apr May May Apr Apr May May Apr Apr May May Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 May May May

0.532 2.0 9 N/A -1.5 N/A N/A -60.10 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 N/A N/A 275 N/A N/A 0.4 N/A N/A N/A 0.5 N/A -4 -0.4 N/A -0.4 N/A N/A 0.9 N/A N/A 0.7 2.1 N/A 95.5 N/A N/A

M % IND IND % M % B % % IND M IND IND IND % % % % % K K M % IND IND IND % IND IND % % % % % % % % % % % IND IND IND

0.511 -1.5 14 15 -3.6 1.116 3.6 -56.90 0.4 5.6 231.4 1.31 69 101 10 0.8 1.2 0.1 -5.8 -7.0 278 275.75 2.152 0.8 52.40 52.8 110.5 1.4 -8 -4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -8.4 0.5 0.9 1.9 0.7 2.1 0.3 95.8 108.6 87.5

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset)




SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) – Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016

 Trendline resistance di sekitar 16800 sedang diuji  Target uptick di 16900  Support kunci di 16315 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

20 May SSIpmM6 20 May SSIamM6 19 May SSIpmM6 19 May SSIamM6 18 May SSIpmM6 18 May SSIamM6 17 May SSIpmM6 17 May SSIamM6 16 May SSIpmM6 16 May SSIamM6

16710 16605 16605 16765 16630 16590 16745 16635 16475 16395

16810 16775 16620 16840 16765 16805 16785 16720 16620 16680

16695 16545 16480 16590 16590 16495 16585 16505 16455 16375

115 230 140 250 175 310 200 215 165 305

16715 16735 16530 16630 16725 16570 16585 16715 16620 16530

--16735 --16630 --16570 --16715 --16530

 20  105  100  60  155  145  130  185  90  180

0.12 0.63 0.60 0.36 0.94 0.87 0.78 1.12 0.54 1.10

11358 43606 15828 46124 12058 69011 19460 37340 8259 52245

WEEKLY

MAY

APRIL

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

16840 (19/May)

16375 (16/May)

16840 (19/May)

15820 (03/May)

17740 (22/Apr)

15320 (07/Apr)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

17580

High 28/Apr/2016 (Reaction high)

17165

Pivot line (1-D chart)

16900


16840

High 19/May/2016

16545

Reaction low on 1-H chart

16480


16315

Low 13/May/2016

16220


BUY

16690

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

16525

TARGET


16895 16955



KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016

 Area trendline support di sekitar 238.25 masih utuh  RSI sudah oversold (24)  Waspadai adanya pola Doji star ! (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

20 May 19 May 18 May 17 May 16 May

238.95 239.00 240.50 241.20 239.95

239.80 239.65 240.55 241.60 241.75

238.40 238.65 238.35 240.30 239.55

1.40 1.00 2.20 1.30 2.20

239.05 238.90 239.30 241.25 241.20

239.05 238.90 239.30 241.25 241.20

 0.15  0.40  1.95  0.05  0.80

0.06 0.17 0.81 0.02 0.33

87896 78707 134793 81932 90046

WEEKLY

MAY

APRIL

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

241.75 (16/May)

238.35 (18/May)

245.15 (02/May)

239.55 (16/May)

250.30 (20/Apr)

240.00 (08/Apr)

250.30 (20/Apr)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

244.35

High 11/May/2016

242.80

High 13/May/2016

241.75

High 16/May/2016

240.55

High 18/May/2016

237.50

Pivot line

234.90

Low 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction low)

234.05

Low 22/Feb/2016 (Bottom)

231.35

Low 17/Feb/2016

BUY

238.50

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

237.25

TARGET


240.15 241.85



HSIK6 (Hang Seng May Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 May 2016

 Rebound uji lagi area 19800  Waspadai daily trend cenderung bearish  Target uptick di 20200 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

20 May 19 May 18 May 17 May 16 May 13 May

19602 19680 19768 19852 19522 19700

19948 19731 19822 20016 19880 19744

19579 19562 19639 19721 19516 19448

369 169 183 295 364 296

19855 19606 19686 19946 19816 19605

19855 19606 19686 19946 19816 19604

WEEKLY

MAY

CHANGE      

% CHANGE

VOLUME

1.27 0.41 1.30 0.66 1.08 1.01

130753 108007 115722 122703 132547 132046

249 80 260 130 212 199

APRIL

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

20016 (17/May)

19516 (16/May)

20987 (03/May)

19448 (13/May)

21664 (21/Apr)

19967 (08/Apr)

21857 (04/Jan)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

20538

High 04/May/2016

20391

High 05/May/2016

20253

High 11/May/2016 (Reaction high)

20016

High 17/May/2016 (Reaction high)

19804


16730

Pivot line (1-H chart)

19400


19287

Low 02/Mar/2016

BUY

19840

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

19775

TARGET


19980 20120

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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