ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 02 Desember 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 6

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Harga minyak dan saham energi terapresiasi pada hari Kamis setelah OPEC setuju untuk pengkas produksi minyaknya, sementara USD dan yield obligasi naik tajam oleh ekspektasi naiknya suku bunga seiring meningkatnya tekanan inflasi. Di pasar ekuitas Asia, saham Australia naik 0,9% dan Nikkei Jepang naik 1,1% setelah yen jatuh ke level terendah sejak Februari mendekati area 115 per dolar. Sub-sektor pertambangan Tokyo melonjak lebih dari 10% dan menjadi pendorong terbesar kenaikan indeks. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,5%, terangkat oleh data manufaktur Cina yang dirilis lebih baik dari ekspektasi. Bursa Shanghai catat kenaikan 0,7%.  Eropa: Saham Italia naik ke level tertinggi 3 pekan pada hari Kamis, bersinar ditengah melemahnya pasar Eropa, dengan saham perbankan dalam permintaan karena kekhawatiran mereda atas referendum hari Minggu pada reformasi konstitusi Perdana Menteri Matteo Renzi. Indeks STOXX

600 merosot 0,3%, sementara indeks bleu chip Milan naik 1% ke level intraday tertinggi sejak 10 November. Pasar saham Italia masih berkinerja terburuk di Eropa tahun ini dengan penurunan lebih dari 20% akibat permasalahan perbankan dan kekhawatiran pada ketidakstabilan politik. Indeks saham Inggris juga terkoreksi oleh terpukulnya saham consumer goods akibat melemahnya sterling. Indeks FTSE 100 turun 0,5%, level penutupan terendahnya sejak 17 November. Indeks masih tercatat naik 8% sepanjang tahun 2016 ini.  AS & Global Markets: Minyak Brent berjangka naik ke level tertinggi 16 bulan pada hari Kamis masih terinspirasi oleh keputusan OPEC pangkas produksi minyak sehari sebelumnya, sementara yield Treasury terus menguat menyusul kinerja bulanan terburuk untuk obligasi global dalam 13 tahun. Yield Treasury AS tenor 10 tahun melonjak ke level tertinggi sejak Juli 2015, setelah Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Global Broad Market Index terkoreksi 1,76% di bulan November, prosentase penurunan bulanan tertajamnya sejak catat penurunan 2,06% di bulan Juli 2003. Indeks dolar, yang menutup kenaikan 2 bulan berturut-turut di atas 3%, terkoreksi 0,54%. Sterling menguat terhadap USD untuk ke tujuh kalinya dalam 9 sesi terakhir. Euro juga menguat terhadap USD. Di Wall Street, turunnya saham teknologi telah menekan Nasdaq Composite dan S&P 500. Emas jatuh ke level terendah dalam hampir 10 bulan namun kemudian pangkas kerugian dan terakhir ditutup naik 0,01% di $1171.01 per ounce.  Weekahead: Pandangan pasar akan tertuju pada referendum konstitusi yang akan diselenggarakan di Italia pada hari Minggu 4 Desember 2016. Investor takut Italia bisa terjun ke ketidakpastian politik jika Perdana Menteri pro-euro Matteo Renzi gagal untuk melewati referendum konstitusi, yang bisa mendorong pengunduran diri Renzi. Sedangkan di tahun 2017 sejumlah negara Eropa juga akan mengadakan pemilu seperti Belanda, Perancis dan Jerman. Perhatian pasar kemudian akan berakhir pada rilis data pekerjaan AS (non-farm payrolls) pada hari Jumat yang diharapkan akan memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 262.10 (07/Sep/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 19225.29 (30/Nov/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2214.10 (30/Nov/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 01 December 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

19191.93 2191.08 5251.107 114.08 1166.73

CHANGE     

68.35/ 0.36% 7.73 / 0.35% 72.574/ 1.36% 0.36/ 0.31% 9.66 / 0.82%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

18513.12 254.48 22878.23 3274.07160 50.91

CHANGE     

204.64/1.12% 0.22/0.09% 88.46/0.39% 24.03720/0.74% 1.47 / 2.97%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

Mon/28-Nov-16 Tue/29-Nov-16

22:30 04:00 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:50 14:00 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:15 22:00 22:30 22:30 06:00 06:00 06:00 06:50 07:00 07:30 07:30 07:30 07:30 12:00 12:00 15:30 20:00 20:15 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 21:45 22:00 22:00 22:30 22:30 22:30

US KR JP JP JP JP JP KR US US US US US US US US US US US US US KR KR KR JP AU AU AU AU AU JP JP HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US AU KR KR KR JP

Wed/30-Nov-16

30 Nov ~ 01 Dec Thu/01-DEC-16

02:00 05:30 06:00 06:00 06:00 06:50

INDICATORS

Dallas Fed Mfg Bus idx* BOK Manufacturing BSI* Unemployment Rate Jobs/Applicants Ratio All Household Spending YY* All Household Spending MM Retail Sales YY Bank of Korea Policy Meeting Minutes GDP 2nd Estimate GDP Sales Prelim GDP Cons Spending Prelim GDP Deflator Prelim Core PCE Price Prelim PCE Prices Prelim CaseShiller 20 MM SA CaseShiller 20 MM NSA CaseShiller 20 YY Fed's Dudley Speaks Consumer Confidence Texas Serv Sect Outlook Dallas Fed Services Reve Industrial Production YY* Service Sector Output Gr Industrial Output Growth Industrial Production Prelim HIA New Home Sales MM Building Approvals* Private House Approvals* Private Sector Credit* Housing Credit* Housing Starts YY* Construction Orders YY* Money Supply M3* Fed's Kaplan Speaks in New York ADP National Employment Personal Income MM Personal Consump Real MM Consumption. Adjusted MM Core PCE Price Index MM Core PCE Price Index YY PCE Price Index MM PCE Price Index YY Chicago PMI Pending Home Sales Change MM Pending Home Index EIA Weekly Crude Stocks EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk OPEC Meeting: 171st Meeting in Vienna U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book AIG Mfg Index CPI Growth* CPI Growth YY* Current Account Balance* Business Capex (MOF) YY*

PER

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREV.

Nov Dec Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

10.2 74 3.0% 1.40 -0.4% -1.0% -0.1%

N/A N/A 3.0% 1.39 -0.6% 0.1% -1.2%

-1.50 74 3.0% 1.38 -2.1% 2.8% -1.9%

Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Sep Sep Sep

3.2% 2.7% 2.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 5.1%

3.0% 2.5% N/A 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 5.2%

2.9 % 2.3% 2.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.4% 5.1%

Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

107.1 12.6 13.7 -1.6% -0.2% -1.7% 0.1% -8.5% -12.6% -3.4% 0.5% 0.6% 13.7% 15.2% 8.1%

101.2 N/A N/A -2.0% N/A -0.1% -0.1% N/A 1.5% N/A 0.4% N/A 11.2% N/A N/A

98.6 3.0 9.9 -2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 3.8% -8.7% 2.3% 0.4% 0.5% 10.0% 16.3% 7.80%

100.8

Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Oct Oct w/e w/e w/e

216.0k 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 1.4% 57.6 0.1% 110.0 -0.884m 4.957m 2.097m

165k 0.4% N/A 0.5% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A 52.0 0.4% N/A 0.636m 1.336m 1.156m

147k 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 1.2% 50.6 1.5% 110.0 -1.255m 0.327m 2.317m

119.0k 0.4% 0.5%

Nov Nov Nov Oct Q3

54.2 -0.1% 1.3% 6.01b -1.3%

N/A 0.10% 1.50% N/A N/A

50.9 0.1% 1.3% 7.06b 3.1%

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

REV.

0.3%

-1.7% -0.7% 0.6%

-9.3% 1.5%

1.4% 109.9

6.86b



Fri/02-DEC-16

07:00 07:00 07:00 07:30 07:30 07:30 07:30 08:00 08:00 08:45 15:30 19:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 21:00 21:45 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 06:00 06:00 07:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 21:45 21:45

KR KR KR AU AU JP KR CN CN CN HK US US US US US US US US US US US KR KR AU US US US US US US US US US US US

Exports Growth Prelim* Nov 2.7% Imports Growth Prelim* Nov 10.1% Trade Balance Prelim* Nov 8.0b Capital Expenditure* Q3 -4.0% Plant/Machinery Capex* Q3 -1.9% Nikkei Mfg PMI Nov 51.3 Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Nov 48.0 NBS Manufacturing PMI* Nov 51.7 NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Nov 54.7 Caixin Mfg PMI Final Nov 50.9 Retail Sales YY* Oct -2.9% Challenger Layoffs Nov 26.936k Initial Jobless Claims w/e 268 Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e 251.5 Continuing Jobless Claims w/e 2.081m Fed's Mester Gives Opening Remarks at Financial Stability Conf Fed's Kaplan Speaks in San Antonio Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Nov 54.1 Construction Spending MM Oct 0.5% ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov 53.2 ISM Mfg Prices Paid Nov 54.5 ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Nov 52.3 GDP Growth YY Q3 GDP Growth QQ Q3 Retail Sales MoM Oct Non-farm Payrolls Nov Private Payrolls Nov Manufacturing Payrolls Nov Government Payrolls Nov Unemployment Rate Nov Average Earnings MM Nov Average Workweek Hrs Nov Labor Force Participation Rate Nov U6 Underemployment Rate Nov ISM-New York Index Nov ISM-NY Biz Conditions Nov

1.2% 2.9% N/A -2.5% N/A N/A N/A 51 N/A 50.8 N/A N/A 253k N/A 2.040m

-3.2% -4.8% 6.97b -5.4% 2.8% 51.1 48.0 51.2 54.00 51.2 -4.1% 30.740k 251k 251.00k 2.043m

N/A 0.5% 52.2 54.0 N/A N/A N/A 0.3% 175k 165k -3k N/A 4.9% 0.2% 34.4h N/A N/A N/A N/A

53.9 -0.4% 51.9 54.5 52.1 2.7% 0.7% 0.6% 161k 142k -9k 19k 4.9% 0.4% 34.4h 62.8% 9.5% 719.3 49.2

-5.2%

0.0%

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset)




SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Dec. 2016

 Retracement terjadi setelah gagal bertahan di atas area 18500  Koreksi hadapi support jangka pendek di 18350 – 18200 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

01 Dec SSIpmZ6 01 Dec SSIamZ6 30 Nov SSIpmZ6 30 Nov SSIamZ6 29 Nov SSIpmZ6 29 Nov SSIamZ6 28 Nov SSIpmZ6 28 Nov SSIamZ6 25 Nov SSIpmZ6 25 Nov SSIamZ6

18430 18585 18375 18370 18285 18250 18315 18355 18360 18405

18580 18750 18660 18390 18450 18335 18360 18375 18385 18485

18395 18415 18355 18285 18285 18230 18215 18210 18265 18290

185 335 305 105 165 105 145 165 120 195

18425 18420 18600 18375 18355 18280 18280 18310 18380 18375

--18420 --18375 --18280 --18310 --18375

WEEKLY

DECEMBER

CHANGE          

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.03 0.24 1.22 0.52 0.41 0.16 0.16 0.35 0.03 0.05

27095 87724 32728 39794 20381 34790 19007 51686 14000 45627

5 45 225 95 75 30 30 65 5 10

NOVEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

18750 (01/Dec)

18210 (28/Nov)

18750 (01/Dec)

18415 (01/Dec)

18660 (30/Nov)

16095 (09/Nov)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

19115

High 30/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

18945

High 04/Jan/2016

18750

Peak level (1-H chart)

18580

Reaction high (1-H chart)

18350

Pivot line (1-H chart)

18280

Reaction low (1-H chart)

18150


18050


BUY

----

SELL

18500

STOP LOSS

18600

TARGET


18370 18275



KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Dec. 2016

 Retracement berkembang setelah gagal bertahan di atas area 255  Koreksi hadapi short-term support di 253.50 – 252.25 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

01 Dec 30 Nov 29 Nov 28 Nov 25 Nov 24 Nov

254.55 253.05 253.15 252.30 252.80 253.65

255.05 254.95 253.65 253.50 253.00 253.90

253.85 253.00 252.55 250.80 251.90 251.65

1.20 1.95 1.10 2.70 1.10 2.25

254.20 254.15 252.80 253.15 252.20 252.45

254.20 254.15 252.80 253.15 252.20 252.45

 0.05  1.35  0.35  0.95  0.25  1.10

0.02 0.53 0.14 0.38 0.10 0.43

88278 132948 100954 103150 84697 109595

WEEKLY

DECEMBER

NOVEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

255.05 (01/Dec)

250.80 (28/Nov)

255.05 (01/Dec)

253.85 (01/Dec)

257.45 (09/Nov)

246.80 (09/Nov)

262.50 (08/Sep)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

259.65

Horizontal resistance

257.45

High 09/Nov/2016 (Peak)

255.65

High 10/Nov/2016

255.05

High 01/Dec/2016

253.00

Low 30/Nov/2016

252.55

Low 29/Nov/2016

251.70

Pivot line (1-H chart)

250.80


BUY

----

SELL

254.55

STOP LOSS

255.25

TARGET


252.75 251.90



HSIZ6 (Hang Seng Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 December 2016

 Reli breakout resistance krusial di 23000, hit day high di 23018 dengan short-term support di sekitar 22700  Crucial support di sekitar 22500  Target uptick di 23250 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

01 Dec 30 Nov (HSIZ6) 29 Nov (HSIZ6) 29 Nov (HSIX6) 28 Nov 25 Nov 24 Nov

22898 22813 22751 22737 22700 22629 22606

23018 22929 22871 22830 22978 22788 22652

22852 22776 22700 22690 22691 22560 22467

166 153 171 140 287 228 185

22894 22822 22804 22795 22784 22730 22605

22893 22822 22804 22790 22784 22730 22605

WEEKLY

DECEMBER

CHANGE       

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.32 0.08 0.02 0.05 0.24 0.55 0.49

92553 90672 93968 16582 125030 143118 138037

72 18 4 11 54 125 111

NOVEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

23018 (01/Dec)

22690 (29/Nov)

23018 (01/Dec)

22852 (01/Dec)

23286 (01/Nov)

21904 (09/Nov)

24374 (09/Sep)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

23286

High 02/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)

23211

High 02/Nov/2016

23152

High 09/Nov/2016 (Peak)

23018

High 01/Dec/2016

22691

Low 28/Nov/2016

22560

Low 25/Nov/2016

22467

Reaction low (1-D chart)

22300

Pivot line (1-D chart)

BUY

22775

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

22680

TARGET


23025 23105

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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