ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 27 Juli 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 6

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Sikap hati-hati investor picu pergerakan pasar saham yang beragam pada hari Selasa dengan yen menguat jelang sidang bank sentral AS dan Jepang. Indeks MSCI Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,7% dan catat level tertinggi hampir 1 tahun, didukung oleh naiknya saham Cina dan Korea Selatan. Sedangkan Nikkei kurang beruntung setelah mencatat turun 1,5% karena investor tampaknya tidak terkesan oleh laporan Nikkei dimana pemerintah merencanakan stimulus fiskal langsung sekitar 6 triliun yen ($ 56 milyar) selama beberapa tahun ke depan. Kalangan dealer masih ragu BOJ akan menawarkan stimulus baru pada sidangnya Jumat mendatang. Pasar juga memprediksi The Fed belum akan menaikkan suku bunganya pada sidangnya nanti malam, namun rilis optimis data ekonomi AS belakangan ini memberikan peluang untuk dilakukan kenaikan suku bunga di akhir tahun ini. Fed fund futures memberikan peluang 56% untuk kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember, naik dari 48% peluangnya di hari Jumat sebelumnya.  Eropa: Naiknya saham kesehatan dan consumer goods telah berhasil angkat saham Eropa pada hari Selasa, meskipun ada tekanan dari keprihatinan terhadap sistem perbankan kawasan. Indeks STOXX 600 ditutup naik 0,1%, sementara indeks FTSEurofirst 300 menguat 0,2%. Rendahnya suku bunga Eropa telah memberi keuntungan pada perusahaan consumer goods berkat meningkatnya minat belanja konsumen. Bursa Inggris juga ditutup naik didukung oleh naiknya saham GKN (perusahaan engineering) dan BT Group (perusahaan telekomunikasi). Indeks FTSE 100 berakhir menguat 0,2% di level 6724,03. Indeks tercatat naik 16% sejak kejatuhannya pasca Brexit.  AS & Global Markets: Melonjaknya yen dan turunnya harga minyak ke level terendah 3 bulan telah membuat bursa saham tetap bertahan pada hari Selasa menyusul investor menantikan hasil sidang bank sentral pekan ini yang boleh jadi akan menghasilkan stimulus baru di Jepang dan memberikan isyarat untuk kenaikan suku bunga AS. Bursa AS ditutup beragam. Yen tembus level tertinggi 2 pekan terhadap euro dan tertinggi lebih dari sepekan terhadap dolar. Sebagian besar ekonom memprediksi BOJ akan mengekspansi pembelian asetnya dan memangkas lebih dalam suku bunganya di bawah 0%. Namun harapan ekonom ini bisa jadi pupus menyusul komentar menteri keuangan Taro Aso yang kurang mendukung langkah BOJ. Sementara itu The Fed diprediksi akan tahan suku bunganya di kisaran 0,25-0,50 persen karena resiko global, meskipun sejumlah data (consumer confidence Juli yang stabil dan sales of new single-family homes Juni yang catat level tertinggi hampir 8-1/2 tahun) mendukung indikasi berlanjutnya momentum ekonomi dalam negeri. Selain sidang The Fed, data Data PDB-Q2 AS (Jumat) juga akan dicermati yang diprediksi akan menunjukkan akselerasi menjadi 2,6% dari 1,1% (Q1).

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 252.76 (26/Jul/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 22300.51 (26/Jul/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18622.01 (20/Jul/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2175.63 (20/Jul/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 26 Juli 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

18473.75 2169.18 5110.047 104.64 1136.39

CHANGE     

19.31/ 0.10% 0.70 / 0.03% 12.419 / 0.24% 1.12 / 1.06% 4.70 / 0.41%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

16383.04 252.72 22129.73 3050.17900 42.64

CHANGE     

237.25/1.43% 2.07/0.83% 136.29/0.62% 34.35120/1.14% 0.49 / 1.14%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

MON/25-Jul

06:50 06:50 06:50 21:30 06:00 06:00 15.30 15.30 20:00 20:00 20:00 20:45 20:45 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:30 21:30 04:00 08:30 08:30 08:30 18:30 18:30 19:30 19:30 21:00 21:00 21:30 01.00 08:30 08:30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19:30 22:00 22:00

JP JP JP US KR KR HK HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US KR AU AU AU US US US US US US US US AU AU US US US US US US JP JP KR KR KR KR JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP

TUE/26-Jul

WED/27-Jul

THU/28-Jul

FRI/29-Jul

28~29Jul

Tentative Tentative

04:00 06:00 06:00 06:00 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:50 06:50

INDICATORS

PER

ACTUAL

Exports YY Imports YY Trade Balance Total Yen Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx GDP Growth QQ GDP Growth YY Imports Exports CaseShiller 20 MM SA CaseShiller 20 MM NSA CaseShiller 20 YY Markit Comp Flash PMI Markit Svcs PMI Flash Consumer Confidence New Home Sales-Units New Home Sales Chg MM Rich Fed Comp. Index Rich Fed, Services Index Rich Fed Mfg Shipments Texas Serv Sect Outlook Dallas Fed Services Reve Consumer Sentiment Ind CPI QQ CPI YY CPI Index Number Build Permits R Numb MM Build Permits R Chg MM Durable Goods Durables Ex-Transport Pending Homes Index Pending Sales Change MM EIA Weekly Crude Stock

Jun Jun Jun Jul Q2 Q2 Jun Jun May May May Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Q2 Q2 Q2 Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun

-7.4 -18.8 692.8 -1.3 0.7 3.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 0.9 5.2 51.5 50.9 97.3 0.592 3.5 10 8 7 -1.3 10.3 101

FOMC meeting and statement release

N/A Q2 Q2 w/e w/e w/e Jun Jul Jul

Export Prices Import Prices Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims Adv Goods Trade Balance KC Fed Manufacturing KC Fed Composite Index BOJ Base Money Target BOJ Rate Decision BOK Manufacturing BSI Industrial Output YY Service Sector Output Gr Industrial Output Growth All Household Spending Y All Household Spending M CPI, Core Nationwide YY CPI, Overall Nationwide CPI Core Tokyo YY CPI, Overall Tokyo Jobs/Applicants Ratio Unemployment Rate Retail Sales YY Industrial Output Prelim

Aug Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

FORECAST -11.6 -19.7 494.8 N/A 0.7 2.9 N/A N/A 0.1 1.1 5.5 N/A 52.0 95.9 0.560 1.6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.4 1.1 N/A N/A N/A -1.1 0.3 N/A 1.4 -2.450 0.375 N/A 1.6 260 N/A 2.130 61.0 N/A N/A 85.00 -0.20 N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.3 0.4 -0.4 N/A -0.5 N/A 1.37 3.2 -1.5 0.7

LAST

% % B IND % % % % % % % IND IND IND M % IND IND IND IND IND IND % % IND M % % % % % M % % % K K M B IND IND T % IND % % % % % % % % % % % %

-11.3 -13.8 -40.7 -18.30 0.5 2.8 -4.3 -0.1 0.5 1.1 5.4 51.20 51.4 98.0 0.551 6.0 -7 0 -3 -7.7 15.6 99 -0.2 1.3 108.2 1.153 1.5 -2.3 -0.3 110.8 -3.7 -2.342 0.375 -4.7 -3.0 253 257.75 2.128 -60.59 12 2 80.00 -0.10 72 4.3 0.1 2.5 -1.1 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 1.36 3.2 -1.9 -2.6

REV

-0.2

97.4 0.572 0 2


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 6 28~29Jul 28~29Jul

06:50 06:50 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 12:00 12:00 15:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 20:45 21:00 21:00 21:00

JP JP AU AU AU AU JP JP HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US

IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead IP Forecast 2 Mth Ahead PPI QQ PPI YY Private Sector Credit Housing Credit Construction Orders YY Housing Starts YY Money Supply M3 GDP Advance GDP Sales Advance GDP Cons Spending Advance GDP Deflator Advance Core PCE Prices Advance PCE Prices Advance Employment Wages QQ Employment Benefits QQ Employment Costs Chicago PMI U Mich Sentiment Final U Mich Conditions Final U Mich Expectations Final

Jun Jun Q2 Q2 Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Jul Jul Jul Jul

N/A N/A 0.2 N/A 0.5 N/A N/A -3.0 N/A 2.6 3.2 N/A 1.8 1.7 2.0 N/A N/A 0.6 54.0 90.5 109.0 79.5

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % IND IND IND IND

1.7 1.3 -0.2 1.2 0.4 0.5 34.5 9.8 1.40 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.4 2.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 56.8 89.5 108.7 77.1

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset)




SSIamU6 (Nikkei Sep Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Sep. 2016

 Koreksi sedang tes area 16200  Target downtick di 16180 16000 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

26 July SSIpmU6 26 July SSIamU6 25 July SSIpmU6 25 July SSIamU6 22 July SSIpmU6 22 July SSIamU6 21 July SSIpmU6 21 July SSIamU6 20 July SSIpmU6 20 July SSIamU6

16325 16570 16645 16650 16620 16565 16775 16820 16650 16605

16450 16570 16670 16765 16690 16675 16815 16930 16850 16690

16235 16295 16520 16590 16580 16540 16445 16720 16650 16530

215 275 150 175 110 135 370 210 200 160

16385 16320 16550 16615 16615 16645 16555 16830 16850 16690

--16320 --16615 --16645 --16830 --16690

WEEKLY

JULY

CHANGE          

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.40 1.78 0.39 0.18 0.18 1.10 1.63 0.84 0.96 0.21

18858 66866 11505 40093 17787 43121 41245 48787 21472 38837

65 295 65 30 30 185 275 140 160 35

JUNE

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

16765 (25/July)

16235 (26/July)

16930 (21/July)

15105 (08/July)

17155 (01/June)

14790 (24/June)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

16835

Reaction high (1-H chart)

16765

Reaction high (1-H chart)

16690

Pivot line (1-H chart)

16525


16180

Reaction low (1-H chart)

16000


15590


15395


BUY

----

SELL

16460

STOP LOSS

16550

TARGET


16100 16000



KSU6 (Kospi Sep Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Sep. 2016

 Rebound breakout trendline resistance dan mendekati area resistance di 254.30  RSI di zona overbought  Short-term support di sekitar 250.30 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

26 July 25 July 22 July 21 July 20 July 19 July

250.70 251.35 249.75 251.70 251.00 251.90

253.30 251.95 251.15 251.85 251.05 251.95

250.35 250.25 249.10 250.40 249.25 250.40

2.95 1.70 2.05 1.45 1.80 1.55

253.30 250.85 250.75 250.90 250.90 251.00

253.30 250.85 250.75 250.90 250.90 251.00

 2.45  0.10  0.15 UNCH  0.10  0.65

0.98 0.04 0.06 UNCH 0.04 0.26

107443 101070 79987 72703 96743 84427

WEEKLY

JULY

JUNE

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

253.30 (26/July)

250.25 (25/July)

253.30 (26/July)

241.35 (06/July)

251.65 (09/June)

235.65 (24/June)

253.30 (26/July)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION 259.70

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

High 02/Jun/2015

257.40

High 03/Jun/2015

256.35

High 02/Jul/2015 (Peak)

254.30

High 04/Nov/2015 (Peak)

251.50

Trendline support

250.35

Low 26/Jul/2016

249.10

Low 22/Jul/2016

248.35

Low 13/Jul/2016

BUY

252.15

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

251.15

TARGET


253.90 255.70



HSIN6 (Hang Seng July Futures) – Exp. Date: 28 July 2016

 Rebound tembus area 22300 dengan kondisi RSI sudah overbought  Area support di sekitar 21855 masih efektif  Target uptick disekitar 22500 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

26 July 25 July 22 July 21 July 20 July 19 July 18 July

21888 22111 21931 21935 21650 21742 21663

22321 22113 21999 22138 21928 21757 21855

21868 21904 21859 21906 21626 21635 21640

453 209 140 232 302 119 215

22108 22053 21992 22003 21890 21665 21760

22108 22050 21992 22003 21890 21665 21760

WEEKLY

JULY

CHANGE       

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.25 0.28 0.05 0.52 1.04 0.44 0.13

183333 120216 89105 104036 99666 100408 120059

55 61 11 113 225 95 29

JUNE

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

22321 (26/July)

21868 (26/July)

22321 (26/July)

20278 (06/July)

21157 (08/June)

19564 (24/June)

22321 (26/July)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

23055

High 26/Nov/2015 (Reaction high)

22658

High 27/Nov/2015

22576

High 02/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

22321

High 26/Jul/2016

21837


21625

Low 20/Jul/2016 (Reaction low)

21530

Low 15/Jul/2016

21259

Low 14/Jul/2016

BUY

21950

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

21825

TARGET


22220 22450

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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