Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 20 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 6
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK • Asia: Bursa saham Asia jatuh pada hari Kamis dan dolar perkasa setelah pasar melihat faktor yang dapat mempercepat Federal Reserve AS menaikkan suku bunga pada Juni mendatang, sementara emas tersungkur. Indeks MSCI Asia-pasifik diluar Jepang turun 1%, menyusul prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS yang kedua dalam 6 bulan menambah kekhawatiran di pasar berkembang yang tengah bergulat menghadapi pelambatan ekonomi Cina. Bursa Korea Selatan dan Australia pimpin pelemahan bursa regional setelah masing-masing catat penurunan 0,6% dan 0,8%. Nikkei awalnya menguat berkat melemahnya yen yang turun ke level terendah 3 pekan terhadap dolar setelah FOMC minutes, namun kemudian pangkas keuntungan dan hanya ditutup menguat 0,2%. • Eropa: Bursa Eropa turun pada hari Kamis menyusul turunnya harga minyak dan logam tekan saham komoditas dan perhatian meningkat bahwa The Fed akan segera menaikkan suku bunga. Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 turun 1,2%. Saham Inggris jatuh pada hari Kamis setelah hilangnya sebuah penerbangan EgyptAir dan penurunan pemesanan musim panas untuk Thomas Cook (maskapai penerbangan charter yang berbasis di Manchester) membebani sektor wisata, sementara saham pertambangan juga melemah. Indeks FTSE 100 terkoreksi 112,45 poin atau 1,8% ke 6053,35. • AS & Global Markets: Bursa saham global turun pada hari Kamis, sementara dolar menguat, menekan harga minyak dan komoditas, setelah investor melihat kemungkinan The Fed menaikkan suku bunganya dalam waktu dekat ini. Pernyataan Presiden Fed New York William Dudley semalam yang mengatakan ekonomi dapat cukup kuat untuk menjamin kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni atau Juli kian memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed pasca rilis FOMC minutes di hari Rabu sebelumnya. Laporan CME FedWatch menunjukkan peluang sebesar 32% bagi Fed menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni, naik dari 15% ekspektasinya di hari Selasa sebelumnya. Sementara mayoritas pelaku pasar saat ini memprediksi kenaikan di bulan Juli. Bursa global merosot 0,9%, catat penurunan dalam 3 sesi berturut-turut. Harga emas turun 0,4% dan sentuh level terendah 3 pekan.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW
.N225
.KS200
.HSI
.DJI
/.SPX
/.SSEC
38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)
295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 249.56 (20/Apr/16)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 21794.84 (04/Jan/16)
18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18167.63 (20/Apr/16)
2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2111.05 (20/Apr/16)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)
14865.77 (12/Feb/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)
222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)
18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)
15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)
2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
85.25 (06/Jul/50)
58.61 (31/Aug/67)
Closing Prices – 19 Mei 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=
17435.40 2040.04 4712.533 109.95 1186.48
CHANGE
91.22 / 0.52% 7.59 / 0.37% 26.586 / 0.56% 0.23 / 0.21% 1.71 / 0.14%
CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)
16646.66 239.04 19694.33 2807.33470 48.16
CHANGE
1.97/0.01% 0.78/0.33% 132.08/0.67% 0.17940/0.01% 0.03 / 0.06%
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 20 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE
WIB
CTY
MON/16-May
N/A N/A N/A 06.50 06.50 19.30 21.00 03.00 03.00 03.00 03.00 08.30 08.30 11.30 11.30 15.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 20.15 20.15 20.15 22.30 06.50 06.50 06.50 06.50 06.50 08.30 08.30 08.30 21.30 01.00 04.00 04.00 06.50 06.50 08.30 08.30 08.30 08.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 21.00
KR KR KR JP JP US US US US US US AU AU JP JP HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US JP JP JP JP JP CN AU AU US US KR KR JP JP AU AU AU AU US US US US US US US US
TUE/17-May
WED/18-May
THU/19-May
INDICATORS Export Growth Revised Import Growth Revised Trade Balance Revised Corp Goods Price MM Corp Goods Price YY NY Fed Manufacturing NAHB Housing Market Idx Net L-T Flows Exswaps Foreign Buying T-Bonds Overall Net Capital Flow Net L-T Flows Incl. Swaps New Motor Vehicle Sales RBA Minutes Industrial Output Rev Capacity Util. Idx Chg. MM Unemployment Rate CPI MM SA CPI YY NSA Core CPI MM SA Core CPI YY NSA CPI Index NSA Core CPI Index SA Real Weekly Earnings MM Building Permits: Number Build Permits: Chg. MM Housing Starts Number MM House Starts MM: Chg. Industrial Output MM Capacity Utilization MM Manuf Output MM Cleveland Fed CPI GDP QQ GDP QQ Annualised GDP QQ Pvt Consump Prelim GDP QQ Capital Expend GDP QQ External Demand China House Prices YY Wage Price Index QQ Wage Price Index YY EIA Crude Inventories FOMC Minutes PPI Growth YY PPI Growth Machinery Orders MM Machinery Orders YY Employment Full Time Employment Participation Rate Unemployment Rate Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims National Activity Index Philly Fed Business Index Philly Fed Employment Philly Fed Prices Paid Leading Index Chg MM
PER
ACTUAL
FORECAST
LAST
Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr May May Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr
-11.2 -14.9 8.8 -0.3 -4.2 -9.02 58 78.1 23.6 -98.3 64.6 -2.5
N/A N/A N/A 0.2 -3.7 6.50 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
% % B % % IND IND B B B B %
-11.2 -14.9 8.80 -0.1 -3.8 9.56 58 72.0 9.9 33.5 60.9 2.2
Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Apr Q1 Q1 w/e
3.8 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.1 0.2 2.1 239.26 246.57 0.2 1.116 3.6 1.172 6.6 0.7 75.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.7 0.5 -1.4 0.2 6.2 0.4 2.1 1.31
3.6 N/A N/A 0.3 1.1 0.2 2.1 239.10 N/A N/A 1.130 4.3 1.127 2.9 0.3 75.0 0.3 N/A 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.8 0.1 N/A 0.5 2.2 -2.833
% % % % % % % IND IND % M % M % % % % % % % % % % % % % M
3.6 -5.4 3.4 0.1 0.9 0.1 2.2 238.13 246.10 0.2 1.076 -8.6 1.089 -8.8 -0.6 74.8 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 -1.1 -0.9 1.5 0.1 4.9 0.5 2.2 -3.410
Apr Apr Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr W/E W/E W/E Apr May May May Apr
-3.1 0.2 5.5 3.2 10.8 -9.3 64.8 5.7 278 275.75 2.152 0.10 -1.8 -3.3 15.7 0.6
N/A N/A 0.5 0.8 12.5 N/A 64.9 5.8 275 N/A 2.163 N/A 3.5 N/A N/A 0.4
% % % % K K % % K K M IND IND IND IND %
-3.3 -0.1 -9.2 -0.7 26.1 -8.8 64.9 5.7 294 268.25 2.161 -0.44 -1.6 -18.50 13.20 0.2
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
REV
72.6 31.7 61.5
0.1 1.077 -7.3 1.099 -9.4 -0.9 74.9
-0.4 -1.7 -0.8 1.2
25.7 -10.1
2.165 -0.55
0.0
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 20 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 6
FRI/20-May
21.30 21.00 21.00
US US US
FOMC Dudley Speaks Existing Home Sales Exist. Home Sales % Chg.
Apr Apr
5.40 1.3
M %
5.33 5.1
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset)
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 20 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 6
SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) – Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016
• Trendline resistance di sekitar 16800 masih cukup efektif meredam rebound • Target uptick di 16900 • Support kunci di 16240 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
19 May SSIpmM6 19 May SSIamM6 18 May SSIpmM6 18 May SSIamM6 17 May SSIpmM6 17 May SSIamM6 16 May SSIpmM6 16 May SSIamM6 13 May SSIpmM6 13 May SSIamM6
16605 16765 16630 16590 16745 16635 16475 16395 16345 16625
16620 16840 16765 16805 16785 16720 16620 16680 16550 16810
16480 16590 16590 16495 16585 16505 16455 16375 16315 16315
140 250 175 310 200 215 165 305 235 495
16530 16630 16725 16570 16585 16715 16620 16530 16385 16350
--16630 --16570 --16715 --16530 --16350
100 60 155 145 130 185 90 180 35 330
0.60 0.36 0.94 0.87 0.78 1.12 0.54 1.10 0.21 1.98
15828 46124 12058 69011 19460 37340 8259 52245 18756 59171
WEEKLY
MAY
APRIL
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
16840 (19/May)
16375 (16/May)
16840 (19/May)
15820 (03/May)
17740 (22/Apr)
15320 (07/Apr)
18945 (04/Jan)
14770 (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
17120
Pivot line (1-H chart)
16900
Pivot line (1-D chart)
16840
High 19/May/2016
16700
Trendline resistance
16410
Reaction low on 1-H chart
16315
Low 13/May/2016
16220
Reaction low on 1-H chart
16130
Reaction low on 1-H chart
BUY
----
SELL
16650
STOP LOSS
16750 16450
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
16390
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 20 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 5 of 6
KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016
• Area support kunci di sekitar 237.50 masih utuh • RSI sudah oversold (23) • Waspadai adanya pola Doji star ! (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
19 May 18 May 17 May 16 May 13 May
239.00 240.50 241.20 239.95 242.40
239.65 240.55 241.60 241.75 242.80
238.65 238.35 240.30 239.55 240.30
1.00 2.20 1.30 2.20 2.50
238.90 239.30 241.25 241.20 240.40
238.90 239.30 241.25 241.20 240.40
0.40 1.95 0.05 0.80 2.50
0.17 0.81 0.02 0.33 1.03
78707 134793 81932 90046 114800
WEEKLY
MAY
APRIL
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
241.75 (16/May)
238.35 (18/May)
245.15 (02/May)
239.55 (16/May)
250.30 (20/Apr)
240.00 (08/Apr)
250.30 (20/Apr)
223.10 (20/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
246.25
Pivot line
244.35
High 11/May/2016
242.80
High 13/May/2016
241.75
High 16/May/2016
237.50
Pivot line
234.90
Low 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction low)
234.05
Low 22/Feb/2016 (Bottom)
231.35
Low 17/Feb/2016
BUY
238.25
SELL
----
STOP LOSS TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
237.25 239.90 241.50
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 20 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 6 of 6
HSIK6 (Hang Seng May Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 May 2016
• Area support di 19400 sedang diuji • Daily trend cenderung bearish, namun RSI sudah oversold (27) • Waspadai koreksi terbatas ! (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
19 May 18 May 17 May 16 May 13 May 12 May
19680 19768 19852 19522 19700 19934
19731 19822 20016 19880 19744 20009
19562 19639 19721 19516 19448 19730
169 183 295 364 296 279
19606 19686 19946 19816 19605 19803
19606 19686 19946 19816 19604 19803
WEEKLY
MAY
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
0.41 1.30 0.66 1.08 1.01 0.48
108007 115722 122703 132547 132046 129034
80 260 130 212 199 95
APRIL
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
20016 (17/May)
19516 (16/May)
20987 (03/May)
19448 (13/May)
21664 (21/Apr)
19967 (08/Apr)
21857 (04/Jan)
18217 (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
20016
High 17/May/2016 (Reaction high)
19822
Reaction high on 1-H chart
19731
Reaction high on 1-H chart
19644
Reaction high on 1-H chart
19400
Pivot line (1-D chart)
19287
Low 02/Mar/2016
18993
Low 01/Mar/2016
18884
Low 26/Feb/2016
BUY
----
SELL
19600
STOP LOSS TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
19700 19460 19330
