ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 17 November 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 6

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Melemahnya yield Treasury AS pada hari Kamis telah menyeret USD turun dari puncak 13-1/2 tahun sehingga mendorong penguatan bursa Asia. Yield obligasi pemerintah Jepang juga turun dari puncak multi-bulanan setelah Bank of Japan melakukan sebuah operasi khusus pembelian obligasi fixed-rate untuk pertama kalinya, meredam gerak yield yang berlebihan. Di sesi Asia, indeks dolar bergerak di kisaran 100.28 setelah mendaki ke 100.57 (overnight), level tertinggi sejak April 2003. Dolar terapresiasi setelah kemenangan Trump membawa prospek kenaikan suku bunga lebih cepat dari perkiraan. Namun tekanan pada harga obligasi melambat, dengan yield obligasi tenor 10 tahun turun kembali ke 2.197 persen di Asia setelah menembus level tertinggi 11 bulan di atas 2,3% sebelumnya pekan ini. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,1%, namun mencatat turun 1% pekan ini. Indeks Nikkei turun 0,1% usai tembus level tertinggi 9 bulan pada hari Rabu oleh koreksi tajam yen.  Eropa: Saham Italia berkinerja lebih buruk di pasar Eropa yang positif pada hari Kamis, karena saham bank negara merosot ke posisi terendah lima minggu oleh kegelisahan atas referendum reformasi konstitusi bulan depan. Rebound pada saham sumber daya dan energi membantu indeks STOXX 600 untuk naik 0,6%, namun indeks blue-chip FTSE MIB berakhir datar. Perdana Menteri Italia Matteo Renzi, Kamis ia tidak akan ambil bagian dalam upaya apapun untuk membentuk pemerintahan sementara jika ia kalah dalam pemungutan suara pada 4 Desember, memperkuat harapan ia bisa berhenti. Jajak pendapat menunjukkan Renzi akan kalah. Bursa Inggris juga menguat, didukung naiknya saham pertambangan, meskipun Royal Mail turun usai melakukan earnings update. Indeks FTSE 100 berakhir menguat 0,7%, berkinerja sedikit lebih baik dari Eropa.  AS & Global Markets: USD melejit ke level tertinggi 13-1/2 tahun dan indeks saham global terapresiasi pada hari Kamis setelah komentar dari Kepala Fed Janet Yellen mendukung peluang kenaikan suku bunga bulan depan. Juga yang mendukung penguatan USD adalah data ekonomi AS yang memicu ekspektasi percepatan ekspansi ekonomi AS di kuartal keempat. Indeks dolar melanjutkan penguatannya di sesi sore AS usai komentar Yellen dan terakhir tercatat menguat 0,5%. Keperkasaan USD telah menekan emas, yang terkoreksi ke level terendah 5-1/2 bulan di $1210.73. Demikian juga dengan harga minyak yang juga melemah tipis. Bursa AS, yang reli pekan lalu usai kemenangan Donald Trump sebagai presiden AS, juga menguat dipimpin oleh naiknya saham keuangan. Data ekonomi AS semalam menunjukkan CPI catat kenaikan terbesar dalam 6 bulan di periode Oktober, sementara housing starts naik ke level tertinggi 9 tahun dan jobless claims turun ke level terendah sejak November 1973.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 262.10 (07/Sep/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18934.05 (14/Nov/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2193.81 (15/Aug/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 17 November 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

18903.82 2187.12 5333.973 110.08 1179.01

CHANGE     

35.68/ 0.19% 10.18 / 0.47% 39.389/ 0.74% 1.02/ 0.94% 9.32 / 0.80%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

17862.63 250.46 22262.88 3208.67750 44.93

CHANGE     

0.42/0% 0.14/0.06% 17.65/0.08% 3.62030/0.11% 0.64 / 1.40%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

Mon/14-Nov

4:00 4:00 6:50 6:50 8:00 9:00 9:00 9:00 11:30 11:30 : : : 7:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 22.00 7:30 7:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 21:15 21:15 21:15 22:00 22:30 22:30 22:30 : 7:30 7:30 7:30 7:30 15:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 22.00

KR KR JP JP JP CN CN CN JP JP KR KR KR AU US US US US US US US US AU AU US US US US US US US US US US US CN AU AU AU AU HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US

Tue/15-Nov

Wed/16-Nov

Thu/17-Nov

INDICATORS Export Price Growth YY Import Price Growth YY GDP QQ GDP QQ Annualized BOJ Kuroda speaks in Nagoya Urban investment (YTD) YY Industrial Output YY Retail Sales YY Industrial Output Revision Capacity Utility Index Change MM Export Growth Revised Import Growth Revised Trade Balance Revised RBA Nov. Meeting Minutes NY Fed Manufacturing Import Prices MM Export Prices MM Retail Sales MM Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Retail Ex Gas/Autos Retail Control Business Inventories M/M Wage Price Index QQ Wage Price Index YY PPI Final Demand YY PPI Final Demand MM PPI ex Food/Energy YY PPI ex Food/Energy MM Industrial Output MM Capacity Utilization MM Manufacturing Output MM NAHB Housing Market Index EIA Weekly Crude Stocks EIA Weekly Distilled Stocks EIA Weekly Gasoline Stocks FDI (YTD) Employment Full Time Employment Participation Rate Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate CPI MM, SA CPI YY, NSA Core CPI MM, SA Core CPI YY, NSA CPI Index, NSA Core CPI Index, SA Real Weekly Earnings MM Building Permits: Number Build Permits: Change MM Housing Starts Number MM House Starts MM: Change Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims Philly Fed Business Index Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

PER

ACTUAL

Oct Oct Q3 Q3

-1.6 -0.6 0.5 2.2

N/A N/A 0.2 0.9

% % % %

-8.3 -7.8 0.2 0.7

Oct Oct Oct Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct

8.3 6.1 10 0.6 -2.0 -3.2 -4.8 6.97

8.2 6.2 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

% % % % % % % b

8.2 6.1 10.7 0 2.6 -3.2 -5.4 7.2

Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Sep Q3 Q3 Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov w/e w/e w/e Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct w/e w/e w/e Nov

1.5 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.4 1.9 0.8 0 1.2 -0.2 0 75.3 0.2 63 5.274 0.31 0.746 4.2 9.8 41.5 64.4 5.6 3.4 0.4 1.6 0.1 2.1 241.73 248.98 0 1.229 0.3 1.323 25.5 235 253.5 1.977 7.6

-2.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5 N/A 0.3 0.2 0.5 2.0 1.2 0.3 1.5 0.2 0.2 75.5 0.3 63 1.480 -1.729 -0.416 N/A 20 N/A 64.6 5.6 N/A 0.4 1.6 0.2 2.2 241.79 N/A N/A 1.198 -2.9 1.156 7 257 N/A 2.038 8

ind % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % ind m m m % k k % % % % % % % ind ind % m % m % k k m ind

-6.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 75.4 0.2 63 2.432 -1.948 -2.841 4.2 -9.8 -53 64.5 5.6 3.4 0.3 1.5 0.1 2.2 241.43 248.61 0.2 1.225 6.3 1.047 -9 254 259.75 2.041 9.7

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

FORECAST

LAST

REV -7.7

0.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3

-0.2

-29 -74.3

0.3

1.054 -9.5 260 2.043



Fri/18-Nov

4:00 4:00 23:00 23:00

KR KR US US

PPI Growth YY PPI Growth KC Fed Manufacturing KC Fed Composite Index

Oct Oct Nov Nov

-0.2 0.2

N/A N/A N/A N/A

% % ind ind

-1.1 0.2 18 6

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset)




SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Dec. 2016

 Reli tembus 18000, hit day high 18040 (SSIpmZ6)  Resistance krusial di sekitar 18500  Waspadai RSI memasuki zona overbought (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

17 Nov SSIpmZ6 17 Nov SSIamZ6 16 Nov SSIpmZ6 16 Nov SSIamZ6 15 Nov SSIpmZ6 15 Nov SSIamZ6 14 Nov SSIpmZ6 14 Nov SSIamZ6 11 Nov SSIpmZ6 11 Nov SSIamZ6

17895 17760 17865 17870 17635 17680 17625 17475 17425 17535

18040 17910 17950 17905 17810 17725 17720 17705 17490 17620

17830 17755 17815 17810 17615 17610 17580 17455 17270 17330

210 155 135 95 195 115 140 250 220 290

18035 17910 17850 17865 17780 17635 17650 17610 17400 17445

--17910 --17865 --17635 --17610 --17445

WEEKLY

NOVEMBER

CHANGE          

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.70 0.25 0.08 1.30 0.82 0.14 0.23 0.95 0.26 0.69

18330 44520 27289 49899 16010 39163 20433 38461 28627 76635

125 45 15 230 145 25 40 165 45 120

OCTOBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

18040 (17/Nov)

17455 (14/Nov)

18040 (17/Nov)

16095 (09/Nov)

17495 (27/Oct)

16525 (03/Oct)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

18945

High 04/Jan/2016

18545

High 05/Jan/2016

18460

High 06/Jan/2016

18215

High 07/Jan/2016

17830

Reaction low (1-H chart)

17755


17580


17270


BUY

17950

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

17825

TARGET


18140 18205



KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Dec. 2016

 Area support di sekitar 248.88 (50% Fibo. Retracement of wave 235.65 – 262.10) sedang diuji setelah catat intraday low di 248.80  Area support jangka pendek berada di sekitar 246 – 245 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

17 Nov 16 Nov 15 Nov 14 Nov 11 Nov 10 Nov

249.90 251.15 250.35 252.20 253.40 253.90

250.85 251.70 251.30 252.80 254.00 255.65

248.80 250.40 249.55 250.35 252.15 253.10

2.05 1.30 1.75 2.45 1.85 2.55

250.25 250.45 249.55 250.65 252.70 255.30

250.25 250.45 249.55 250.65 252.70 255.30

 0.20  0.90  1.10  2.05  2.60  5.40

0.08 0.36 0.44 0.81 1.02 2.16

94514 76094 94998 108888 117516 179715

WEEKLY

NOVEMBER

OCTOBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

252.80 (14/Nov)

248.80 (17/Nov)

257.45 (09/Nov)

246.80 (09/Nov)

261.80 (06/Oct)

253.95 (17/Oct)

262.50 (08/Sep)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

255.65

High 10/Nov/2016

254.00

High 11/Nov/2016

252.80

High 14/Nov/2016

251.90

Reaction high (1-H chart)

246.80

Low 09/Nov/2016

246.10

Low 11/Jul/2016

245.75

61.8% Fibo. Retracement (235.65 – 262.10)

243.20

Low 08/Jul/2016

BUY

----

SELL

251.05

STOP LOSS

252.00

TARGET


249.30 248.40



HSIX6 (Hang Seng Nov Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 November 2016

 Rebound sedang uji area resistance di sekitar 22300  Short-term support di sekitar 21900 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

17 Nov 16 Nov 15 Nov 14 Nov 11 Nov 10 Nov 09 Nov

22182 22448 22255 22360 22654 22852 23150

22367 22485 22412 22378 22706 22940 23152

22111 22189 22225 22101 22432 22775 21904

256 296 187 277 274 165 1248

22249 22213 22328 22277 22489 22932 22403

22249 22213 22328 22279 22489 22932 22403

WEEKLY

NOVEMBER

CHANGE       

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.16 0.52 0.23 0.94 1.93 2.36 2.29

104831 88569 98548 112640 123368 113838 241917

36 115 51 212 443 529 526

OCTOBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

22485 (16/Nov)

22101 (14/Nov)

23286 (01/Nov)

21904 (09/Nov)

24077 (11/Oct)

22707 (31/Oct)

24374 (09/Sep)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

22942

High 11/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)

22661


22547


22485

High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)

22076

Reaction low (1-D chart)

21904

Low 09/Nov/2016

21798

Low 05/Aug/2016

21650

Pivot line

BUY

----

SELL

22375

STOP LOSS

22495

TARGET


22100 22000

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Recommend Documents