Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 26 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf
Page 1 of 6
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
Asia: Saham Asia naik ke level tertinggi 3 bulan pada hari Rabu namun dolar tergelincir oleh aksi profit-taking investor menyusul tumbuhnya kekhawatiran seputar kebijakan Presiden AS Donald Trump. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,1% ke level tertinggi sejak Oktober. Indeks Nikkei menguat 1,43% didukung oleh data yang menunjukkan ekspor Jepang naik untuk pertama kalinya dalam 15 bulan pada Desember, sebuah sinyal positif meskipun dibayangi oleh sikap proteksi AS. Eropa: Laporan earnings yang kuat dari Logitech dan Banco Santander telah dorong kenaikan tajam saham Eropa pada hari Rabu, dengan indeks STOXX 600 catat kenaikan 1 hari terbesarnya dalam 11 pekan terakhir. Indeks naik 1,3% sedangkan DAX Jerman naik 1,8% ke level tertinggi sejak Mei 2015 yang ditopang oleh kenaikan pada saham Deutsche Bank sementara bursa Inggris juga terkerek naik dengan FTSE 100 naik 0,3%. AS & Global Markets: Harga ekuitas global reli dan Dow Jones tembus level psikologi 20000 pada hari Rabu, terdorong oleh rilis optimis data perdagangan Jepang, laporan earnings dan harapan investor bahwa Presiden AS Donald Trump akan terus maju dengan paket belanja fiskal yang besar. Reli saham dorong kenaikan yield Treasury AS, namun tumbuhnya kekhawatiran terhadap langkah prosteksi perdagangan Trump dan dampak negatif pada pertumbuhan dan perdagangan global telah memicu koreksi dolar. Ekspor Jepang catat kenaikan untuk pertama kalinya dalam 15 bulan terakhir di periode Desember. Selain PDB-Q4 AS (Jumat), pasar juga akan mencermati data PDB-Q4 dari Inggris (Kamis). Brexit berpotensi memukul perekonomian Inggris lebih kuat di tahun 2017.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2016 HIGH 2017 HIGH 2017 LOW 2016 LOW RECORD LOW
.N225
.KS200
.HSI
.DJI
/.SPX
/.SSEC
38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 19592.90 (21/Dec/16) 19999.63 (06/Jan/2017)
295.51 (03/May/11) 264.42 (21/Dec/16) 270.01 (19/Jan/217)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16) 23151.75 (18/Jan/2017)
20082.00 (25/Jan/2017) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 20082.00 (25/Jan/2017)
2299.55 (25/Jan/2017) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 2299.55 (25/Jan/2017)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 3174.57810 (10/Jan/2017)
18650.33 (18/Jan/2017) 14864.01 (24/Jun/16)
258.64 (02/Jan/2017) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)
21883.82 (03/Jan/2017) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16)
19677.94 (19/Jan/2017) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
2245.13 (03/Jan/2017) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)
3044.29120 (16/Jan/2017) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
85.25 (06/Jul/50)
58.61 (31/Aug/67)
Closing Prices – 25 January 2017 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=
20068.51 2298.37 5656.339 113.26 1161.70
CHANGE
155.80/ 0.78% 18.30/ 0.80% 55.382/ 0.99% 0.52/ 0.46% 7.53 / 0.64%
CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)
19057.50 268.15 23049.12 3149.43170 52.94
CHANGE
269.51/1.43% 0.85/0.32% 99.26/0.43% 6.87840/0.22% 0.24 / 0.45%
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 26 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE
WIB
CTY
Mon/23-Jan-17
06:00 11:30 15:00 15:30 20:30 21:00 22:00
EZ JP CH HK CA CN EZ
ECB's Draghi Speaks in Torino, Italy All Industry Activity Index MoM Nov Money Supply M3 YoY Dec CPI Composite YoY Dec Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Nov Conference Board China December Leading Economic Index Consumer Confidence Jan
04:00 04:30 07:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:30 16:30 16:30 21:45 22:00 22:00 22:00 00:30 06:00 06:00 06:50 06:50 06:50 07:30 07:30 16:00 16:00 16:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 22:30 22:30 22:30 04:00 04:45 04:45 04:45 14:00 14:00 15:30 15:30 16:30 16:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30
KR NZ JP DE DE DE EZ EZ EZ GB GB GB US US US US EZ KR KR JP JP JP AU AU DE DE DE US US US US US US KR NZ NZ NZ DE CH HK HK GB GB US US US US US US US
Consumer Confidence Jan Performance Services Index Dec Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Jan Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Jan Markit Germany Services PMI Jan Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Jan Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jan Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jan Public Finances (PSNCR) Dec Public Sector Net Borrowing Dec PSNB ex Banking Groups Dec Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan Existing Home Sales Dec Existing Home Sales MoM Dec Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Jan Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem Speaks at L'Echo Brexit Conference GDP SA QoQ Q4 GDP YoY Q4 Trade Balance Dec Exports YoY Dec Imports YoY Dec CPI QoQ Q4 CPI YoY Q4 Ifo Business Climate Jan Ifo Expectations Jan Ifo Current Assessment Jan Monthly Home Price MM Nov Monthly Home Price YY Nov Monthly Home Price Index Nov EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e BOK Manufacturing BSI Feb CPI QoQ Q4 CPI YoY Q4 CPI Index Q4 GfK Consumer Confidence Feb Trade Balance Dec Exports YoY Dec Imports YoY Dec GDP QoQ Q4 GDP YoY Q4 Advance Goods Trade Balance Dec Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec Retail Inventories MoM Dec Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Dec Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e Continuing Jobless Claims w/e
Tue/24-Jan-17
Wed/25-Jan-17
Thu/26-Jan-17
INDICATORS
PER
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREV.
0.3% 3.0% 1.2% 0.2%
0.4% 2.5% -0.5%
0.2% 2.0% 1.2% 1.1%
-4.9
-4.80
-5.10
93.3 58.4 52.8 56.5 53.2 54.7 55.1 53.6 54.3 36.294b 6.421b 6.858b 55.1 5.49m -2.8% 12
---55.4 54.5 55.2 54.8 53.9 54.5 -7.000b 6.700b 54.5 5.52m -1.1% 7
94 57.9 52.4 55.6 54.3 55.2 54.9 53.7 54.4 13.525b 12.210b 12.647b 54.3 5.61m 0.7% 8
0.4% 2.3% 641.4b 5.4% -2.6% 0.5% 1.5% 109.8 103.2 116.9 0.5% 6.1% 241.3 2.84m 0.076m 6.796m 78 0.4% 1.3%
0.3% 2.2% ¥270.0b 1.2% -0.8% 0.7% 1.6% 111.3 105.8 116.9 ---2.815m -0.970m 0.498m -0.3% 1.2% -9.9 2.81b --0.5% 2.1% -$64.0b ---247k -2.040m
0.6% 2.6% ¥152.5b -0.4% -8.8% 0.7% 1.3% 111.0 105.6 116.6 0.4% 6.2% 240.2 2.347m -0.968m 5.951m 73 0.2% 0.2% 1209.0 9.9 3.64b 8.1% 7.6% 0.6% 2.2% -$65.30b 1.0% 1.0% -0.27 234k 246.75k 2.046m
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
REV.
1.8% 1.3%
94.1 58.1
20.013b 10.830b 11.267b 5.65m 3.3%
105.5 116.7 0.3% 240.0
0.3% 0.4%
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 26 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 6
Fri/27-Jan-17
Sat/28-Jan-17
21:45 21:45 22:00 22:00 23:00 All Day 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 07:30 07:30 07:30 07:30 14:00 14:00 15.30 16:00 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 22:00 22:00 22:00 All Day 01:00
US US US US US AU JP JP JP JP JP JP AU AU AU AU DE DE HK EZ US US US US US US US US US CN US
Markit US Services PMI Markit US Composite PMI New Home Sales New Home Sales MoM Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Bank Holiday/Australia Day National CPI YoY National CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY Tokyo CPI YoY Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY PPI QoQ PPI YoY Export Price Index QoQ Import Price Index QoQ Import Price Index MoM Import Price Index YoY Money Supply M3 HKD YoY M3 Money Supply YoY GDP Annualized QoQ Personal Consumption GDP Price Index Core PCE QoQ Durable Goods Orders Durables Ex Transportation U. of Mich. Sentiment U. of Mich. Current Conditions U. of Mich. Expectations Bank Holiday/Lunar New Year Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count
Jan Jan Dec Dec Jan
54.4 -588k -1.0% --
53.9 54.1 592k 5.2% 24
Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Dec Dec Dec Dec Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan
0.2% -0.3% -0.1% 0.0% -0.4% -0.1% 0.2% -11.0% -0.5% 1.1% --4.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% -2.6% 0.5% 98.1 112.5 88.9
0.5% -0.4% 0.1% 0.0% -0.6% -0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 3.5% -1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 8.7% 4.8% 3.5% 3.0% 1.4% 1.7% -4.5% 0.6% 98.1 112.5 88.9
27-Jan
--
--
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 26 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 6
SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Rebound berkembang, hadapi area resistance krusial di sekitar 19300 Sementara area short-term support di 18750 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
25 Jan SSIpmH7 25 Jan SSIamH7 24 Jan SSIpmH7 24 Jan SSIamH7 23 Jan SSIpmH7 23 Jan SSIamH7 20 Jan SSIpmH7 20 Jan SSIamH7 19 Jan SSIpmH7 19 Jan SSIamH7
19070 19070 18865 18820 18905 19025 19125 19025 19095 18995
19275 19130 19070 18895 19005 19045 19275 19165 19170 19120
19050 18965 18835 18755 18785 18850 19055 19020 18985 18950
225 165 235 140 220 195 220 145 185 170
19230 19070 19045 18840 18885 18890 19115 19145 19015 19115
--19075 --18840 --18890 --19145 --19115
155 230 205 50 5 255 30 30 100 295
0.81 1.22 1.09 0.26 0.03 1.33 0.16 0.16 0.52 1.57
25429 51674 17769 60865 25832 68836 30485 43830 20554 56906
WEEKLY
JANUARY 2017
DECEMBER 2016
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
19275 (25/Jan)
18755 (24/Jan)
19695 (09/Jan)
18635 (18/Jan)
19615 (20/Dec)
18225 (05/Dec)
19695 (09/Jan)
18635 (18/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
19695
High 09/Jan/2017 (Peak)
19500
Reaction high (1-H chart)
19365
Reaction high (1-H chart)
19275
Peak level (1-H chart)
19085
Reaction low (1-H chart)
18965
Reaction low (1-H chart)
18845
Reaction low (1-H chart)
18755
Reaction low (1-H chart)
BUY
19145
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
19040
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
19315 19380
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 26 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 5 of 6
KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Masih bergerak sideway di kisaran 266.35 – 269.90 Koreksi hadapi area support di sekitar 266.35 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
25 Jan 24 Jan 23 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan
269.50 267.55 267.25 267.25 269.20 268.15
269.50 268.90 268.45 268.00 270.80 268.80
267.55 267.00 265.90 266.95 266.85 266.10
1.95 1.90 2.55 1.05 3.95 2.70
268.25 268.00 267.15 267.60 268.15 267.95
268.25 268.00 267.15 267.60 268.15 267.95
WEEKLY
JANUARY 2017
CHANGE
0.25 0.85 0.45 0.55 0.20 0.45
% CHANGE
VOLUME
0.09 0.32 0.17 0.21 0.07 0.17
96884 85381 97368 75514 145432 130395
DECEMBER 2016
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
269.50 (25/Jan)
265.90 (23/Jan)
270.80 (19/Jan)
259.25 (02/Jan)
260.95 (21/Dec)
251.45 (05/Dec)
270.80 (19/Jan)
259.25 (02/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
273.35
High 27/Apr/2015
272.35
High 28/Apr/2015
270.95
High 29/Apr/2015
269.90
Pivot line
266.90
Reaction low (1-H chart)
265.90
Low 23/Jan/2017
264.15
Low 11/Jan/2017
263.20
Low 10/Jan/2017
BUY
----
SELL
269.20
STOP LOSS
270.20
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
267.30 266.40
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 26 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 6 of 6
HSIF7 (Hang Seng Jan Futures) – Exp. Date: 26 January 2017
Reli breakout 23090, hit high di 23154 Area resistance di 23150 sedang diuji, dengan shortterm resistance di 23286 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
25 Jan (HSIG7) 25 Jan (HSIF7) 24 Jan 23 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan
23035 23072 22970 22943 22995 23083 22900
23040 23080 22998 23104 23016 23089 23187
22900 22945 22920 22853 22864 22956 22881
140 135 78 251 242 133 306
23001 23049 22929 22898 22922 23052 23123
23001 23049 22930 22897 22928 23052 23123
WEEKLY
JANUARY 2017
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
0.51 0.52 0.14 0.10 0.56 0.31 1.18
60395 85575 137310 128175 79978 75590 86432
116 120 31 24 130 71 269
DECEMBER 2016
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
23104 (23/Jan)
22853 (23/Jan)
23187 (18/Jan)
21863 (03/Jan)
23146 (08/Dec)
21477 (23/Dec)
23187 (18/Jan)
21863 (03/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
23653
High 25/Oct/2016 (Peak)
23389
High 27/Oct/2016
23286
High 01/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)
23187
High 18/Jan/2017 (Peak)
23090
Pivot line
22965
Trendline support
22853
Reaction low (4-H chart)
22731
Reaction low (4-H chart)
BUY
23100
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
23000
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
23260 23350
