Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 24 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf
Page 1 of 6
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Dolar tergelincir secara luas pada hari Senin setelah Presiden AS Donald Trump menyerang dengan nada proteksionis dalam pidato pelantikannya, merusak optimisme atas perekonomian AS yang didorong oleh janjinya dari pemotongan pajak dan stimulus lainnya. Nikkei Jepang turun 1,1% sementara saham di Australia turun 0,8% setelah pidato Trump, pada hari pertama di kantor, menyatakan niatnya untuk mundur dari Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), perdagangan pakta 12-bangsa dimana Jepang dan Australia juga telah mendaftar untuk itu. Namun saham Asia lainnya mampu bertahan, sebagian karena melemahnya dolar dan tidak ada kejutan negatif, dengan Trump menahan diri dari menuduh China sebagai manipulator mata uang untuk saat ini, sebuah tuduhan yang ia buat saat berkampanye. Eropa: Saham Eropa jatuh pada hari Senin, tertekan oleh saham perbankan, saham minyak dan jatuhnya saham Fingerprint Cards setelah mantan CEO perusahaan dan anggota dewan ditangkap. Indeks STOXX 600 turun 0,4%, mempertajam koreksi pekan lalu ke level penutupan terendah sejak 29 Desember menyusul pasar ekuitas bereaksi atas pernyataan inagurasi Donald Trump di hari Jumat yang menekankan soal proteksi perdagangan. Sementara indeks FTSE 100 Inggris merosot 0,7% akibat naiknya sterling ke level tertinggi 1 bulan terhadap dolar. AS & Global Markets: Sikap proteksionis yang dilontarkan Donald Trump dalam pidato inagurasinya telah memicu jatuhnya dolar dan saham global pada hari Senin, dan mendorong investor memburu aset safe-haven. Dolar jatuh ke level terendah 7 minggu sementara minyak juga terkoreksi menyusul sinyal pulihnya produksi AS, sedangkan emas naik ke level tertinggi 2 bulan. Selain PDB-Q4 AS, pasar juga akan mencermati data PDB-Q4 dari Inggris. Brexit berpotensi memukul perekonomian Inggris lebih kuat di tahun 2017.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2016 HIGH 2017 HIGH 2017 LOW 2016 LOW RECORD LOW
.N225
.KS200
.HSI
.DJI
/.SPX
/.SSEC
38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 19592.90 (21/Dec/16) 19999.63 (06/Jan/2017)
295.51 (03/May/11) 264.42 (21/Dec/16) 270.01 (19/Jan/217)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16) 23151.75 (18/Jan/2017)
19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 19973.42 (11/Jan/2017)
2282.10 (06/Jan/2017) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 2282.10 (06/Jan/2017)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 3174.57810 (10/Jan/2017)
18650.33 (18/Jan/2017) 14864.01 (24/Jun/16)
258.64 (02/Jan/2017) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)
21883.82 (03/Jan/2017) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16)
19677.94 (19/Jan/2017) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
2245.13 (03/Jan/2017) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)
3044.29120 (16/Jan/2017) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
85.25 (06/Jul/50)
58.61 (31/Aug/67)
Closing Prices – 23 January 2017 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=
19799.85 2265.20 5552.943 112.68 1162.23
CHANGE
27.40/ 0.14% 6.11/ 0.27% 2.391/ 0.04% 1.92/ 1.68% 12.16 / 1.04%
CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)
18891.03 267.12 22898.52 3136.64340 52.83
CHANGE
246.88/1.29% 0.60/0.23% 12.61/0.06% 13.50450/0.43% 0.41 / 0.78%
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 24 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE
WIB
CTY
Mon/23-Jan-17
11:30 15:30 21:00 04:00 07:30 21:45 22:00 22:00 22:00 06:00 06:00 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 07:30 07:30 21:00 21:00 21:00 22:30 22:30 22:30 04:00 15:30 15:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 21:45 21:45 22:00 22:00 23:00 All Day 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 07:30 07:30 07:30 07:30 15.30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 22:00
JP HK CN KR JP US US US US KR KR JP JP JP JP AU AU US US US US US US KR HK HK US US US US US US US US US US US US AU JP JP JP JP JP JP AU AU AU AU HK US US US US US US US
Tue/24-Jan-17
Wed/25-Jan-17
Thu/26-Jan-17
Fri/27-Jan-17
INDICATORS
PER
All Industry Activity Index MoM Nov CPI Composite YoY Dec Conference Board China December Leading Economic Index Consumer Confidence Jan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Jan Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan Existing Home Sales Dec Existing Home Sales MoM Dec Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Jan GDP SA QoQ Q4 GDP YoY Q4 Trade Balance Dec Trade Balance Adjusted Dec Exports YoY Dec Imports YoY Dec CPI QoQ Q4 CPI YoY Q4 Monthly Home Price MM Nov Monthly Home Price YY Nov Monthly Home Price Index Nov EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e BOK Manufacturing BSI Feb Exports YoY Dec Imports YoY Dec Advance Goods Trade Balance Dec Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec Retail Inventories MoM Dec Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Dec Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e Continuing Jobless Claims w/e Markit US Services PMI Jan Markit US Composite PMI Jan New Home Sales Dec New Home Sales MoM Dec Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Jan Bank Holiday/Australia Day National CPI YoY Dec National CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Dec National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY Dec Tokyo CPI YoY Jan Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Jan Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY Jan PPI QoQ Q4 PPI YoY Q4 Export Price Index QoQ Q4 Import Price Index QoQ Q4 Money Supply M3 HKD YoY Dec GDP Annualized QoQ Q4 Personal Consumption Q4 GDP Price Index Q4 Core PCE QoQ Q4 Durable Goods Orders Dec Durables Ex Transportation Dec U. of Mich. Sentiment Jan
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREV.
0.3% 1.2%
0.4% --
0.2% 1.2%
93.3
--54.5 5.52m -1.1% 7 0.3% 2.3% ¥270.0b ¥275.7b 1.2% -0.8% 0.7% 1.6% ----------$64.0b ---247k -2.040m 54.4 -584k -1.0% --
94 52.4 54.3 5.61m 0.7% 8 0.6% 2.6% ¥152.5b ¥536.1b -0.4% -8.8% 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 6.2% 240.2 2.347m -0.968m 5.951m 73 8.1% 7.6% -$65.30b 1.0% 1.0% -0.27 234k 246.75k 2.046m 53.9 54.1 592k 5.2% 24
0.2% -0.3% -0.1% 0.0% -0.4% -0.1% 0.2% -11.0% -0.5% -2.2% 2.4% 2.1% -2.7% 0.6% 98.1
0.5% -0.4% 0.1% 0.0% -0.6% -0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 3.5% -1.0% 8.7% 3.5% 3.0% 1.4% 1.7% -4.5% 0.6% 98.1
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
REV.
94.1
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 24 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 6
Sat/28-Jan-17
22:00 22:00 All Day 01:00
US US CN US
U. of Mich. Current Conditions U. of Mich. Expectations Bank Holiday/Lunar New Year Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count
Jan Jan
112.5 88.9
112.5 88.9
27-Jan
--
--
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 24 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 6
SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Area resistance di sekitar 19300 masih efektif Koreksi sedang hadapi area support di 18565 dan juga area sekitar 18300 (38.2% retracement of wave 1609519695) (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
23 Jan SSIpmH7 23 Jan SSIamH7 20 Jan SSIpmH7 20 Jan SSIamH7 19 Jan SSIpmH7 19 Jan SSIamH7 18 Jan SSIpmH7 18 Jan SSIamH7 17 Jan SSIpmH7 17 Jan SSIamH7
18905 19025 19125 19025 19095 18995 18835 18755 18765 19100
19005 19045 19275 19165 19170 19120 18960 18925 18855 19100
18785 18850 19055 19020 18985 18950 18770 18635 18660 18720
220 195 220 145 185 170 190 290 195 380
18885 18890 19115 19145 19015 19115 18950 18820 18725 18775
--18890 --19145 --19115 --18820 --18775
5 255 30 30 100 295 130 45 50 285
0.03 1.33 0.16 0.16 0.52 1.57 0.69 0.24 0.27 1.50
25832 68836 30485 43830 20554 56906 17341 63795 36268 68971
WEEKLY
JANUARY 2017
DECEMBER 2016
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
19045 (23/Jan)
18785 (23/Jan)
19695 (09/Jan)
18635 (18/Jan)
19615 (20/Dec)
18225 (05/Dec)
19695 (09/Jan)
18635 (18/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
19500
Reaction high (1-H chart)
19365
Reaction high (1-H chart)
19275
Peak level (1-H chart)
19020
Reaction high (1-H chart)
18770
Reaction low (1-H chart)
18635
Reaction low (1-H chart)
18490
Low 08/Dec/2016
18350
Low 07/Dec/2016
BUY
----
SELL
18925
STOP LOSS
19025
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
18790 18725
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 24 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 5 of 6
KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Area support di sekitar 266.35 masih cukup efektif Koreksi hadapi area support di 263-262 RSI turun dari zona overbought (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
23 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan
267.25 267.25 269.20 268.15 267.45 268.35
268.45 268.00 270.80 268.80 269.25 269.15
265.90 266.95 266.85 266.10 267.40 266.35
2.55 1.05 3.95 2.70 1.85 2.80
267.15 267.60 268.15 267.95 268.40 267.40
267.15 267.60 268.15 267.95 268.40 267.40
WEEKLY
JANUARY 2017
CHANGE
0.45 0.55 0.20 0.45 1.00 1.25
% CHANGE
VOLUME
0.17 0.21 0.07 0.17 0.37 0.47
97368 75514 145432 130395 95998 135817
DECEMBER 2016
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
268.45 (23/Jan)
265.90 (23/Jan)
270.80 (19/Jan)
259.25 (02/Jan)
260.95 (21/Dec)
251.45 (05/Dec)
270.80 (19/Jan)
259.25 (02/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
273.35
High 27/Apr/2015
272.35
High 28/Apr/2015
270.95
High 29/Apr/2015
269.90
Pivot line
265.90
Low 23/Jan/2017
264.15
Low 11/Jan/2017
263.20
Low 10/Jan/2017
262.30
Low 05/Jan/2017 (Reaction low)
BUY
----
SELL
268.75
STOP LOSS
270.00
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
265.85 264.95
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 24 Januari 2017
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 6 of 6
HSIF7 (Hang Seng Jan Futures) – Exp. Date: 26 January 2017
Rebound uji area 23100 sebelum akhirnya terkoreksi lagi ke area 22900 Area support di sekitar 22700 – 22650 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
23 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 13 Jan
22943 22995 23083 22900 22848 22875 22929
23104 23016 23089 23187 22875 22912 22998
22853 22864 22956 22881 22731 22671 22887
251 242 133 306 144 241 111
22898 22922 23052 23123 22854 22764 22969
22897 22928 23052 23123 22854 22764 22969
WEEKLY
JANUARY 2017
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
0.10 0.56 0.31 1.18 0.40 0.89 0.38
128175 79978 75590 86432 66596 81760 72112
24 130 71 269 90 205 87
DECEMBER 2016
2017
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
23104 (23/Jan)
22853 (23/Jan)
23187 (18/Jan)
21863 (03/Jan)
23146 (08/Dec)
21477 (23/Dec)
23187 (18/Jan)
21863 (03/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
23389
High 27/Oct/2016
23286
High 01/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)
23187
High 18/Jan/2017 (Peak)
23090
Pivot line
22731
Reaction low (4-H chart)
22650
Pivot line (4-H chart)
22464
Reaction low (4-H chart)
22200
Pivot line (4-H chart)
BUY
----
SELL
22980
STOP LOSS
23100
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
22800 22700
