ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 13 Oktober 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 5

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Saham Asia tembus level terendah 3 pekan pada hari Rabu setelah permulaan yang kurang baik untuk musim laporan earnings perusahaan Wall Street telah menyeret bursa AS, sementara dolar dan yield Treasury AS di level tertinggi multibulanan oleh tumbuhnya ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember. Sterling rebound dari level low dalam perdagangan yang fluktuatif, meskipun concern mengenai “hard Brexit” nampaknya akan tetap menekan mata uang Inggris tersebut. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang jatuh ke level terendah 3 pekan, menyeret saham-saham mendekati level terendah 3 pekan yang dicapai pada hari Selasa sebelumnya. Saat ini pasar memberikan peluang sekitar 75% untuk kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember, sedikit naik dari beberapa hari terakhir ini.  Eropa: Bursa Eropa turun tipis pada hari Rabu dengan Ericsson Swedia terkoreksi ke level terendah 8 tahun usai melaporkan sebuah profit warning. Indeks STOXX 600 melemah 0,5%, pelemahan dalam 2 sesi berturut-turut. Sepanjang tahun ini indeks catat penurunan 7,4%. DAX Jerman juga turun 0,5%, sementara FTSE 100 dan FTSE 250 Inggris keduanya turun sekitar 0,7%. Ericsson merosot 20% ke level terendah sejak 2008 setelah memperingatkan bahwa profit Q3 akan “turun secara signifikan” melampaui ekspektasi setelah penurunan dalam bisnis broadband mobile terakselerasi.  AS & Global Markets: Pasar ekuitas global masih melemah tipis sementara dolar menguat pada hari Rabu setelah minutes dari sidang The Fed pada 20-21 September lalu mengisyaratkan suku bunga bisa dinaikkan jika ekonomi AS terus menguat. Pasar tidak banyak bereaksi atas rilis minutes tersebut. Harga minyak turun 1% setelah OPEC melaporkan produksi minyak tembus level tertinggi 8 tahun di bulan September, mengimbangi optimisme seputar janji OPEC untuk mengendalikan kelebihan pasokan. Sterling rebound dari tekanan jual brutalnya pekan lalu setelah PM Inggris Theresa May menawarkan untuk memberikan suara kepada parlemen dalam rencana meninggalkan Uni Eropa, dimana telah mengurangi kekhawatiran terjadinya “hard Brexit”. Euro catat level terendah 11 minggu di $1.1005 di awal sesi AS dan terakhir tercatat melemah 0,34% di $1.1015. Dolar terakhir tercatat naik 0,7% terhadap yen di 104.22 yen.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 262.10 (07/Sep/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18668.44 (15/Aug/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2193.81 (15/Aug/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 12 Oktober 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

18144.20 2139.18 5239.019 104.20 1124.51

CHANGE     

15.54/ 0.19% 2.45 / 0.11% 7.769/ 0.15% 0.70/ 0.68% 0.52 / 0.05%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

16840.00 256.20 23407.05 3059.12880 50.01

CHANGE     

184.76/1.09% 0.05/0.02% 142.47/0.60% 6.12090/0.20% 0.78/ 1.54%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 13 Oktober 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 5

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

Mon/10-Oct

21:00 All Day All Day 06:50 07:30 07:30 07:30 07:30 12:00 17:00 06:00 06:30 06:50 06:50 10:00 21:00 : : : : : : : : 01:00 06:50 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 21:30 21:30 21:30 23:15 01:00 04:00 04:00 06:50 06:50 08:30 08:30 08:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 23:00

US US JP JP AU AU AU AU JP US KR AU JP JP KR US CN CN CN CN CN CN CN KR US JP US US US US US US US US US US KR KR JP JP CN CN CN US US US US US US US US US US US US

Tue/11-Oct

Wed/12-Oct 12~13Oct

13~20Oct 13~15Oct 13~15Oct 13~15Oct Thu/13-Oct

Fri/14-Oct

INDICATORS

PER

Employment Trends* Sep Columbus Day/Bank Holiday Health and Sports Day/Bank Holiday Current Account NSA JPY* Aug NAB Business Conditions Sep NAB Business Confidence Sep Housing Finance* Aug Invest Housing Finance Aug Economy Watchers Poll* Sep NFIB Business Optimism I Sep Unemployment Rate* Sep Consumer Sentiment Oct Machinery Orders MM* Aug Machinery Orders YY* Aug L-Money Supply Growth Aug JOLTS Job Openings* Aug FDI (YTD)* Sep M2 Money Supply YY* Sep New Yuan Loans* Sep Outstanding Loan Growth* Sep Exports YY* Sep Imports YY* Sep Trade Balance USD* Sep Bank of Korea Base Rate* Oct FOMC Meeting Minutes Sep Bank Lending YY Sep Import Prices MM Sep Export Prices MM Sep Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e Continued Jobless Claims w/e EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stocks w/e Fed’s Harker Speaks Econ. Outlook in Philadelphia Federal Budget,$ Sep Export Price Growth YY* Sep Import Price Growth YY* Sep Corp Goods Price MM* Sep Corp Goods Price YY* Sep PPI YY* Sep CPI YY* Sep CPI MM* Sep PPI Final Demand YY Sep PPI Final Demand MM Sep PPI ex Food/Energy YY Sep PPI ex Food/Energy MM Sep Retail Sales MM Sep Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Sep Retail Control Sep Business Inventories MM Aug U Michigan Sentiment Prelim Oct U Michigan Conditions Prelim Oct U Michigan Expectations Prelim Oct Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at Boston Fed Conference

ACTUAL

FORECAST

LAST

REV

128.51

N/A

ind

128.0

127.96

2000.8 8 6 -3.0 0.1 44.8 94.1 4.0 1.1 -2.2 11.6 7.7 5.443

1539.1 N/A N/A -2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -5.5 6.5 N/A 5.724 N/A 11.6 1000.0 12.9 -3.0 1.0 53.00 1.25

b ind ind % % ind ind % % % % % m % % b % % % b %

1938.2 7 6 -4.2 0.5 45.6 94.40 3.8 0.3 4.9 5.2 7.8 5.871 4.50 11.4 948.7 13.0 -2.8 1.5 52.05 1.25

N/A 0.2 0.0 254 N/A N/A 0.286 -1.506 -1.576

% % % k k m m m m

2.0 -0.2 -0.8 249 253.50 2.058 -2.976 -2.359 0.222

25.00 N/A N/A -0.1 -3.2 -0.3 1.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 91.9 104.7 82.7

b % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % ind ind ind

-107.0 -9.7 -8.5 -0.3 -3.6 -0.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 91.2 104.2 82.7

-4.5

5.831

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset,@her1en)

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 13 Oktober 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 5

SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Dec. 2016

 Rebound coba tes kembali level psikologi di 17000  Key resistance di sekitar 17100 – 17165  Area support di sekitar 16800 – 16700 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

12 Oct SSIpmZ6 12 Oct SSIamZ6 11 Oct SSIpmZ6 11 Oct SSIamZ6 10 Oct SSIpmZ6 10 Oct SSIamZ6 07 Oct SSIpmZ6 07 Oct SSIamZ6 06 Oct SSIpmZ6 06 Oct SSIamZ6

16875 16855 17000 16965 16800 16775 16845 16900 16910 16940

16990 16945 17020 17070 16995 16835 16895 16910 16950 16965

16845 16825 16820 16915 16765 16755 16735 16810 16830 16875

145 120 200 155 230 80 160 100 120 90

16940 16885 16830 16985 16980 16810 16805 16875 16920 16890

--16885 --16985 --16810 --16875 --16890

WEEKLY

OCTOBER

CHANGE          

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.33 0.59 0.91 1.04 1.01 0.39 0.41 0.09 0.18 0.69

18748 43123 16436 50644 6390 3974 22282 35055 17527 39050

55 100 155 175 170 65 70 15 30 115

SEPTEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

17070 (11/Oct)

16755 (10/Oct)

17070 (11/Oct)

16525 (03/Oct)

17165 (02/Sep)

16150 (27/Sep)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

17260

High 31/May/2016 (Peak)

17165

Peak level (1-H chart)

17100

Peak level (1-H chart)

17070

Peak level (1-H chart)

16860

Trendline support

16705

Reaction low (1-H chart)

16665

Reaction low (1-H chart)

16525

Reaction low (1-H chart)

BUY

16915

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

16830

TARGET

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

17100 17200

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 13 Oktober 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 5

KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Dec. 2016

 Koreksi tertahan di sekitar area trendline support di 255.25  Pola inverted hammer dukung sinyal bullish (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

12 Oct 11 Oct 10 Oct 07 Oct 06 Oct 05 Oct

255.50 260.35 259.55 261.15 261.35 257.75

257.35 261.10 261.15 261.55 261.80 260.00

255.35 256.85 258.35 260.30 260.05 257.00

2.00 4.25 2.80 1.25 1.75 3.00

256.40 257.00 261.00 260.55 261.10 259.55

256.40 257.00 261.00 260.55 261.10 259.55

 0.60  4.00  0.45  0.55  1.55  0.05

0.23 1.53 0.17 0.21 0.60 0.02

137943 162468 102594 70696 88954 111862

WEEKLY

OCTOBER

SEPTEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

261.15 (10/Oct)

255.35 (12/Oct)

261.80 (06/Oct)

255.35 (12/Oct)

262.50 (08/Sep)

251.00 (19/Sep)

262.50 (08/Sep)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

262.40

High 29/May/2015 (Reaction high)

262.10

High 07/Sep/2016 (Peak)

261.15

Reaction high (1-H chart)

258.15

Reaction high (1-H chart)

255.90

Low 27/Sep/2016

255.25

Trendline support

254.70

Low 21/Sep/2016

253.60

Low 20/Sep/2016

BUY

256.10

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

255.50

TARGET

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

257.90 258.80

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 13 Oktober 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 5 of 5

HSIV6 (Hang Seng Oct Futures) – Exp. Date: 28 October 2016

 Area support di 23200 masih efektif  Pola doji star berpotensi dukung rebound berkembang  Waspadai dibuka melemah di sekitar 23360 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

12 Oct 11 Oct 10 Oct 07 Oct 06 Oct 05 Oct 04 Oct

23400 24022

23435 24077 H 23920 24001 23843 23688

23254 23381 O 23751 23784 23508 23501

181 696 L 169 217 335 187

23419 23425 I 23830 23925 23750 23682

23416 23425 D 23830 23925 23750 23682

 6  405 A  95  175  68  98

0.03 1.70 Y 0.40 0.74 0.29 0.42

23900 23869 23552 23577

WEEKLY

OCTOBER

SEPTEMBER

VOLUME 108401 159931 79236 90344 101781 80626

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

24077 (11/Oct)

23254 (12/Oct)

24077 (11/Oct)

23254 (12/Oct)

24374 (09/Sep)

22958 (01/Sep)

24374 (09/Sep)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

23925

Reaction high (1-H chart)

23751

Pivot line (1-H chart)

23680

Pivot line (1-H chart)

23495

Pivot line (1-H chart)

23254

Bottom (1-H chart)

23200

Bottom (1-H chart)

23182

Bottom (1-H chart)

23036

Low 14/Sep/2016 (Reaction low)

BUY

23325

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

23225

TARGET

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

23490 23570