ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 08 November 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 5

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

 Asia: Saham Asia rebound dan USD menguat pada hari Senin setelah FBI mengatakan pihaknya berpijak pada rekomendasi sebelumnya bahwa tidak ada indikasi kriminal pada persoalan penggunaan server email pribadi Hillary Clinton untuk kerja pemerintah. Berita tersebut telah menghapus hambatan pada kampanye presiden Hillary dua hari sebelum pilpres, dan mendorong indeks berjangka S&P 500 naik 1,2%, sebuah kenaikan yang menghentikan koreksinya selama 9 hari berturutan – penurunan terlamanya selama lebih dari 35 tahun. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang bertambah 0,9%, kenaikan terbesar dalam 3 minggu. Saham Jepang naik 1,2%, kenaikan terbesarnya dalam 7 pekan. Pasar juga memprediksi suku bunga The Fed akan naik bulan depan setelah laporan pemerintah pada Jumat lalu yang menunjukkan naiknya jumlah lowongan kerja dan upah di bulan Oktober.  Eropa: Saham Eropa menguat pada hari Senin, didukung oleh kenaikan tajam saham perbankan, menyusul berita bahwa Hillary Clinton tidak dikenai sanksi hukum atas penggunaan server email pribadinya untuk kerja pemerintah. Indeks STOXX 600 ditutup naik 1,5%. Pekan lalu indeks catat kerugian mingguan terbesarnya sejak Februari akibat ketidakpastian soal kemungkinan munculnya pemenang pilpres AS. Clinton dipandang akan memberikan kepastian dan stabilitas bagi investor. Bursa Inggris juga ditutup naik, didukung oleh saham pertambangan dan juga saham keuangan. Indeks FTSE yang naik hampir 8% tahun ini, ditutup naik 1,7% kemarin pasca terkoreksi dalam 5 sesi bertutuan di hari Jumat ke level terendah 7 pekan.  AS & Global Markets: Bursa global menguat pada hari Senin, demikian juga dengan USD, menempatkannya pada kenaikan terbesarnya dalam beberapa pekan setelah FBI menyatakan tidak ada indikasi kriminal pada Hillary Clinton terkait penggunaan server email pribadinya. Hal ini memberi momentum baru dan menghilangkan awan hitam kampanye presiden hanya 2 hari jelang pemungutan suara pilpres AS, berhasil mengangkat indeks S&P 500 untuk naik lebih dari 2%. Kondisi ini memicu tekanan jual pada emas dan Treasury AS. Sementara USD melonjak 0,73% terhadap sejumlah rivalnya setelah merosot 1,3% pekan lalu. Pekan ini data stok minyak mingguan AS dan data perdagangan Cina perlu diperhatikan untuk melihat perkembangan kesehatan ekonomi global.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 262.10 (07/Sep/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18668.44 (15/Aug/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2193.81 (15/Aug/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 07 November 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

18259.60 2131.52 5166.173 104.45 1140.67

CHANGE     

371.32/ 2.08% 46.34 / 2.22% 119.803/ 2.37% 1.33/ 1.29% 0.22 / 0.02%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

17177.21 254.60 22801.40 3133.39760 44.95

CHANGE     

271.85/1.61% 2.03/0.80% 158.78/0.70% 8.08090/0.26% 0.88 / 2.00%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 5

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

06~07Nov Mon/07-Nov

N/A 05:30 07:30 07:30 15:30 22:00 03:00 N/A N/A N/A 06:50 07:30 07:30 12:00 12:00 18:00 19:45 23:20 06:00 06:30 06:50 06:50 08:30 08:30 08:30 12:00 22:00 22:00 22:30 22:30 22:30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 00:30 05:50 06:00 06:50 06:50 07:30 07:30 08:00 20:30 20:30 20:30 21.30 N/A 02:00 06:00 15:30 15:30 21:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 All Day

CN AU AU AU HK US US CN CN CN JP AU AU JP JP US US US KR AU JP JP CN CN CN JP US US US US US CN CN CN CN US JP AU JP JP AU AU US US US US US KR US JP HK HK US US US US US

Tue/08-Nov

Wed/09-Nov 09~10Nov

10~20Nov 10~15Nov 10~15Nov 10~15Nov Thu/10-Nov

Fri/11-Nov

INDICATORS

PER

FX Reserves (Monthly) Oct AIG Construction Index Oct ANZ Newspaper Job Ads Oct ANZ Internet Job Ads Oct FX Reserves Oct Employment Trends Oct Consumer Credit Sep Exports YY Oct Imports YY Oct Trade Balance USD Oct Foreign Reserves Oct NAB Business Conditions Oct NAB Business Confidence Oct Coincident Indicator MM Sep Leading Indicator Sep NFIB Business Optimism Index Oct Fed's Evans Speaks on Econ & Policy Nov Fed's Evans Speaks on Econ & Policy Nov Unemployment Rate Oct Consumer Sentiment Nov Bank Lending YY Oct Current Account NSA JPY Sep PPI YY Oct CPI MM Oct CPI YY Oct Economy Watchers Poll* Oct Wholesale Inventory (y), R MM Sep Wholesale Sales MM Sep EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stock w/e FDI (YTD) Oct M2 Money Supply YY Oct New Yuan Loans Oct Outstanding Loan Growth Oct Fed's Kashkari Speaks in Wisconsin Nov BOJ Summary Oct. 31-Nov.1 Meet Nov Consumer Inflation Expectation Nov Machinery Orders MM Sep Machinery Orders YY Sep Housing Finance* Sep Invest Housing Finance* Sep Fed's Williams Speaks on Econ Outlook SF Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e Continued Jobless Claims w/e FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Bank of Korea Base Rate Nov Federal Budget. $ Oct Reuters Tankan DI Nov GDP QQ Q3 GDP YY Q3 FOMC Member Fischer Speaks U Michigan Expectations Preliminary Nov U Michigan Sentiment Preliminary Nov U Michigan Conditions Preliminary Nov Veterans Day/Bank Holiday

ACTUAL 3.121 45.9 1.0 383.1 128.97 19.29

FORECAST

LAST

3.140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 18.00 -6.0 -1.0 51.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 95

t ind ind ind b ind b % % b b ind ind ind ind ind

3.17 51.4 N/A -0.3 362.50 128.5 25.87 -10 -1.9 41.99 1260.1 8 6 -0.1 1.2 94.1

N/A N/A N/A 1960.2 0.8 2.1 0.0 44.4 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 11.4 700.0 13.0

% % % b % % % ind % % m m m % % b %

4.0 1.1 2.2 2000.8 0.1 0.7 1.9 44.8 0.2 0.7 14.420 -1.828 -2.207 4.20 11.5 1220.0 13.0

N/A -0.8 3.5 -2.0 N/A

% % % % %

3.7 -2.2 11.6 -3.0 0.1

260 N/A 2.030

k k m

265 257.75 2.026

N/A -80.00 N/A N/A N/A

% b ind % %

1.25 33.0 10 1.6 1.7

77.3 87.5 103.4

ind ind ind

76.8 87.2 103.2

REV

128.29 26.75

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset,@her1en) RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf



SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Dec. 2016

 Rebound tajam dekati peak level di 17495 setelah area support di 16856 (23.6% Fibo. Retracement of wave 14790 – 17495) masih efektif  Sementara area trendline support di sekitar 16750 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

07 Nov SSIpmZ6 07 Nov SSIamZ6 04 Nov SSIpmZ6 04 Nov SSIamZ6 03 Nov SSIpmZ6 03 Nov SSIamZ6 02 Nov SSIpmZ6 02 Nov SSIamZ6 01 Nov SSIpmZ6 01 Nov SSIamZ6

17220 17195 16925 17010 16935 17100 17120 17220 17455 17390

17270 17245 16930 17010 17090 17125 17120 17285 17470 17485

17210 17060 16815 16800 16925 16905 16970 17070 17200 17340

60 185 115 210 165 220 150 215 270 145

17245 17225 16910 16890 16975 16980 17005 17080 17210 17430

--17225 --16890 --16980 --17080 --17430

 20  335  20  90  5  100  75  350  220 UNCH

0.12 1.98 0.12 0.53 0.03 0.59 0.44 2.01 1.26 UNCH

13124 57982 19170 64649 9262 10439 24567 68866 21537 38662

WEEKLY

NOVEMBER

OCTOBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

17270 (07/Nov)

17060 (07/Nov)

17485 (01/Nov)

16800 (04/Nov)

17495 (27/Oct)

16525 (03/Oct)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

17740

High 25/Apr/2016 (Peak)

17580

High 28/Apr/2016 (Reaction high)

17495

High 28/Oct/2016 (Peak)

17285

Reaction high (1-H chart)

17060

Reaction low (1-H chart)

16800

Low 04/Nov/2016 (Reaction low)

16645

Low 14/Oct/2016 (Bottom)

16525

Low 04/Oct/2016

BUY

17130

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

17030

TARGET

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

17300 17400



KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Dec. 2016

 Rebound hadapi trendline resistance di sekitar 257.50  Strong resistance di sekitar 259.65  Short-term support di sekitar 252 – 251 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

07 Nov 04 Nov 03 Nov 02 Nov 01 Nov 31 Oct

255.80 253.05 252.70 254.50 256.05 255.75

255.90 253.60 254.00 254.95 256.50 257.05

254.30 252.25 252.10 252.80 253.80 255.25

1.60 1.35 1.90 2.15 2.70 1.80

255.15 253.05 253.70 253.15 256.50 256.50

255.15 253.05 253.70 253.15 256.50 256.50

 2.10  0.65  0.55  3.35 UNCH  0.65

0.83 0.26 0.22 1.31 UNCH 0.25

96396 92826 131257 124458 135732 92652

WEEKLY

NOVEMBER

OCTOBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

255.90 (07/Nov)

254.30 (07/Nov)

256.50 (01/Nov)

252.10 (03/Nov)

261.80 (06/Oct)

253.95 (17/Oct)

262.50 (08/Sep)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

261.15

High 10/Oct/2016

259.65

Horizontal resistance

257.75

High 26/Oct/2016

256.50


254.30

Low 04/Nov/2016

252.10

Low 03/Nov/2016

251.00

Low 19/Sep/2016 (Bottom)

249.90

Low 05/Aug/2016

BUY

254.80

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

254.00

TARGET


256.60 257.50



HSIX6 (Hang Seng Nov Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 November 2016

 Area lowerline dari bearish trend channel masih cukup efektif  Short-term support di sekitar 22700  Waspadai indeks dibuka menguat di sekitar 22900 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

07 Nov 04 Nov 03 Nov 02 Nov 01 Nov 31 Oct (HSIX6) 28 Oct (HSIX6)

22644 22600 22739 22890 22920 22788 23090

22875 22767 22859 22936 23286 23054 23123

22623 22580 22653 22765 22908 22707 22813

252 187 206 171 378 347 310

22785 22612 22721 22788 23225 22905 22879

22786 22612 22721 22788 23225 22905 22879

WEEKLY

NOVEMBER

CHANGE       

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.77 0.48 0.29 1.88 1.40 0.11 1.06

99458 83978 111711 99573 116504 112221 110240

173 109 67 437 320 26 245

OCTOBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

22875 (07/Nov)

22623 (07/Nov)

23286 (01/Nov)

22580 (04/Nov)

24077 (11/Oct)

22707 (31/Oct)

24374 (09/Sep)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

24077


23653


23389

High 27/Oct/2016

23286


22775

Pivot line (1-H chart)

22685

Pivot line

22454

Reaction low (1-H chart)

22322

Low 11/Aug/2016 (Reaction low)

BUY

22860

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

22750

TARGET


23020 23180

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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