ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 22 April 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 5

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Indeks saham Asia tembus level tertinggi 5-1/2 bulan pada hari Kamis setelah harga minyak melejit lebih dari 4% di sesi overnight menyusul stok minyak AS naik lebih tipis dari perkiraan dan adanya harapan bahwa produsen minyak pada akhirnya akan menyetujui upaya untuk mengurangi kelebihan pasokan. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,8%, menembus level tertinggi sejak awal November. Indeks Nikkei Jepang bertambah 2,6%. Saham Australia mendaki 0,9% dan Hang Seng, Hong Kong,menguat 1,8% sementara indeks Shanghai kehilangan 0,7%.  Eropa: Bursa Eropa turun tipis pada hari Kamis setelah ECB tahan suku bunganya, dengan produsen peralatan telekomunikasi Swedia Ericsson dan produsen minuman Prancis Pernod pimpin penurunan setelah memberikan update yang mengecewakan. Presiden ECB Mario Draghi menahan suku bunga pada rekor terendah, melanjutkan kebijakan moneter ultra-longgar, dan mengatakan bank akan memulai pembelian obligasi korporasi dan putaran baru pembiayaan bank yang murah pada bulan Juni. Bursa Inggris juga jatuh pasca mencapai level penutupan tertinggi sehari sebelumnya, dipicu rontoknya saham pertambangan Anglo American dan Sky. Saham Sky turun 4,2% setelah muncul keraguan atas hak siar untuk pertandingan Bundesliga di Jerman. Sedangkan Anglo American jatuh 5,6% setelah melaporkan produksi kuartal pertama yang menurun.  AS & Global Markets: Harga minyak tergelincir pada Kamis kemarin setelah terindikasi akan adanya peningkatan produksi, sementara bursa AS terkoreksi untuk pertama kalinya dalam 4 sesi terakhirsetelah muncul laporan earnings yang beragam. Euro melemah terhadap dolar setelah terlihat adanya potensi ECB akan menambah stimulus jika diperlukan. Yield Treasury AS naik ke level tertinggi lebih dari 3 pekan menyusul kenaikan harga minyak belakangan ini telah mengurangi minat investor pada aset aman resiko (seperti obligasi AS). Adapun data ekonomi yang akan diperhatikan hari ini adalah data PMI flash Eropa (Jumat), dengan fokus investor akan tertuju pada sidang Fed 27 April mendatang. The Fed diprediksi akan menaikkan suku bunga 2 kali tahun ini, kemungkinan besar mulai terjadi di bulan Juni dengan peluang terjadi sekitar 21% berdasarkan CME Group's FedWatch program.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 249.56 (20/Apr/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 21794.84 (04/Jan/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18167.63 (20/Apr/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2111.05 (20/Apr/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14865.77 (12/Feb/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 21 April 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

17982.52 2091.48 4945.886 109.45 1140.09

CHANGE     

113.75 / 0.63% 10.92/ 0.52% 2.244 / 0.05% 0.38/ 0.35% 7.70 / 0.68%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

17363.62 249.39 21622.25 2952.60370 43.43

CHANGE     

457.08/2.70% 2.13/0.86% 385.94/1.82% 19.98000/0.67% 0.80 / 1.88%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 5

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

MON/18-Apr

08.30 08.30 10.00 19.30 21.00 N/A 08.30 15.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 20.30 04.00 04.00 06.30 06.50 06.50 06.50 21.00 21.00 21.30 15.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 20.00 20.00 20.00 21.00 09.00 20.45

CN AU KR US US KR AU HK US US US US AU KR KR JP JP JP JP US US US HK US US US US US US US US US US US US JP US

TUE/19-Apr

WED/20-Apr

THU/21-Apr

FRI/22-Apr

INDICATORS China House Prices YY New Motor Vehicle Sales L-Money Supply Growth FOMC Dudley Speaks NAHB Housing Market Idx BoK Base Rate RBA Minutes Unemployment Rate Building Permits: Number Build Permits: Chg. MM Housing Starts Number MM House Starts MM: Chg. RBA Stevens Speaks PPI Growth YY PPI Growth Reuters Tankan DI Exports YY Imports YY Trade Balance Total Yen Existing Home Sales Exist. Home Sales % Chg. EIA Crude Inventories Consumer Price Index Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims National Activity Index Philly Fed Business Idx Philly Fed Capex Index Philly Fed Employment Philly Fed Prices Paid Monthly Home Price MM Monthly Home Price YY Monthly Home Price Index Leading Index Chg MM Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash Markit Mfg PMI Flash

PER

ACTUAL

FORECAST

LAST

Mar Mar Feb

4.9 2.2 8.3

N/A N/A N/A

% % %

3.6 -0.1 8.6

Apr Apr

58 1.50

59 1.50

IND %

58 1.50

Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar

3.4 1.086 -7.7 1.089 -8.8

N/A 1.200 N/A 1.170 N/A

% M % M %

3.3 1.177 -2.2 1.178 5.2

Mar Mar Apr Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar w/e Mar W/E W/E W/E Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Feb Feb Feb Mar Apr Apr

-3.3 -0.1 10 -6.8 -14.9 755.0 5.33 5.1 2.08 3.0 247 260.50 2.137 -0.44 -1.6 12.7 -18.5 13.2 0.4 5.6 231.4 0.2

N/A N/A N/A -6.9 -16.2 834.6 5.30 3.5 2.400 N/A 263 N/A 2.171 N/A 8.9 N/A N/A N/A 0.4 N/A N/A 0.4 49.6 52.0

% % IND % % B M % M % K K M IND IND IND IND IND % % IND % IND IND

-3.4 0.0 6 -4.0 -14.2 242.8 5.08 -7.1 6.634 3.1 253 265.00 2.171 -0.29 12.4 13.30 -1.10 -0.90 0.5 6.0 230.7 0.1 49.1 51.5

REV

1.194 6.9

5.07 -7.3

2.176 -0.38

0.4 230.5 -0.1

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset)

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

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SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) – Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016

 Daily trend bullish namun RSI sudah overbought (71)  Area pivot line di 17165 berpotensi diuji lagi  Area puncak di 17900 saat ini menjadi target berikutnya (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

21 Apr SSIpmM6 21 Apr SSIamM6 20 Apr SSIpmM6 20 Apr SSIamM6 19 Apr SSIpmM6 19 Apr SSIamM6 18 Apr SSIpmM6 18 Apr SSIamM6 15 Apr SSIpmM6 15 Apr SSIamM6

17365 17235 16930 17025 16845 16735 16335 16350 16735 16740

17415 17410 17315 17105 17150 16900 16685 16435 16745 16935

17205 17180 16875 16850 16845 16725 16315 16240 16595 16705

210 230 440 255 305 175 370 195 150 230

17225 17380 17295 16880 17040 16880 16675 16310 16620 16735

--17380 --16880 --16880 --16310 --16735

 155  500  415 UNCH  160  570  365  425  115  110

0.89 2.96 2.46 UNCH 0.95 3.49 2.24 2.54 0.69 0.65

30716 68479 26255 61020 35370 65088 27168 77798 18801 58708

WEEKLY

APRIL

MARCH

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

17415 (21/Apr)

16240 (18/Apr)

17415 (21/Apr)

15320 (07/Apr)

17165 (14/Mar)

15850 (01/Mar)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

18215

High 07/Jan/2016

17900

High 01/Feb/2016 (Peak)

17850

High 03/Feb/2016

17415

Reaction high on 1-H chart

17165

Pivot line

17055

Reaction low on 1-H chart

16850


16785


BUY

17195

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

17100

TARGET

17420 17525

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.



KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016

 Daily trend masih cenderung bullish  Key resistance di 250.90 dengan target uptick di 254.30 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

21 Apr 20 Apr 19 Apr 18 Apr 15 Apr

249.25 249.25 249.15 247.20 249.35

250.30 250.30 249.90 248.60 250.00

248.65 247.70 248.50 246.75 248.90

1.65 2.60 1.40 1.85 1.10

249.90 247.95 248.90 248.35 249.45

249.90 247.95 248.90 248.35 249.45

 1.95  0.95  0.55  1.10  0.15

0.79 0.38 0.22 0.44 0.06

101775 103967 84126 94985 88127

WEEKLY

APRIL

MARCH

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

250.30 (20/Apr)

246.75 (18/Apr)

250.30 (20/Apr)

240.00 (08/Apr)

248.45 (30/Mar)

237.80 (09/Mar)

250.30 (20/Apr)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION 254.30

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

High 04/Nov/2015 (Peak)

252.90

High 05/Nov/2015

250.90

High 27/Nov/2015 (Peak)

249.60

Pivot line

248.50

Pivot line

246.75

Low 18/Apr/2016

244.00

Pivot line

242.20

Low 12/Apr/2016

BUY

249.40

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

248.25

TARGET


251.15 252.00



HSIJ6 (Hang Seng April Futures) – Exp. Date: 28 Apr. 2016

 Pola bullish trend channel  Target uptick di 21800  Key support di 21000 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

21 Apr 20 Apr 19 Apr 18 Apr 15 Apr

21446 21498 21447 21088 21427

21664 21503 21524 21194 21451

21351 21122 21276 21021 21258

313 381 248 173 193

21594 21271 21433 21167 21342

21594 21271 21433 21167 21342

WEEKLY

APRIL

CHANGE     

% CHANGE

VOLUME

1.52 0.76 1.26 0.82 0.01

130114 123641 112149 98922 95530

323 162 266 175 1

MARCH

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

21664 (21/Apr)

21021 (18/Apr)

21664 (21/Apr)

19967 (08/Apr)

20891 (31/Mar)

18993 (01/Mar)

21857 (04/Jan)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

22297

High 24/Dec/2015 (Peak)

22156

High 30/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

21800

Pivot line

21664

High 21/Apr/2016

21240

Minor trendline support

21122

Low 20/Apr/2016

20985

Pivot line

20397

Low 12/Apr/2016

BUY

21350

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

21220

TARGET


21700 21800

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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