Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 28 Desember 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf
Page 1 of 5
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Saham Asia secara umum menguat pada hari Selasa, dalam volume perdagangan yang tipis menyusul sebagian besar pasar global tutup pada hari Senin untuk merayakan Natal, sementara USD rebound dari koreksinya di hari Senin. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang secara marginal menguat, dengan pasar Australia, Selandia Baru dan Hong Kong tutup. Indeks Nikkei juga terpantau bergerak tipis. Indeks CSI 300 Cina turun 0,2% dan Komposit Shanghai terkoreksi 0,2% meskipun data dirilis positif di hari Selasa. Profit sektor industri daratan dilaporkan meningkat 14,5% di bulan November dari tahun sebelumnya, mengisyaratkan adanya peningkatan ekonomi, namun dewan kebijakan mengatakan pertumbuhan sangat bergantung pada naiknya harga minyak, besi dan baja. Bursa saham di Asia Tenggara juga meningkat, termasuk di Indonesia dan Filipina yang masing-masing naik 1%. Sedangkan di hari Jumat sebelumnya, Wall Street ditutup menguat tipis. Eropa: Saham Eropa bergerak stabil pada hari Selasa seiring perdagangan di sejumlah pasar dibuka kembali usai libur Natal, dengan Parmalat menguat. Indeks STOXX 600 naik 0,1% ditengah minimnya aktifitas karena masih banyak investor yang merayakan liburan. Sementara pasar saham Inggris tutup, DAX Jerman tercatat naik 0,2% untuk menyentuh level tertinggi tahun ini yang baru dan CAC Prancis juga naik 0,2%. AS & Global Markets: Saham menguat di hari Selasa seiring dibukanya kembali sejumlah pasar finansial dunia usai libur Natal, dengan minyak juga naik didukung oleh prospek pengurangan suplai. Volume perdagangan masih berpotensi tipis di minggu terakhir tahun ini jelang libur akhir tahun. Kekhawatiran tentang bank Italia, pertumbuhan China dan kebijakan Presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump yang cenderung proteksionis nampaknya akan mendorong investor menahan diri di awal 2017. Namun pemerintahan baru di AS yang akan memperjuangkan dukungan fiskal bagi perekonomian AS akan memberikan harapan untuk tumbuhnya inflasi dan meningkatnya pertumbuhan secara keseluruhan akan menguntungkan perusahaan secara global. USD menguat terhadap yen oleh rilis lebih baik dari perkiraan untuk data perumahan AS dan potensi pernyataan hawkish The Fed, meskipun masih di bawah level tertinggi 10 bulan. Sedangkan harga minyak dan emas juga menguat meskipun masih relatif tipis.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW
.N225
.KS200
.HSI
.DJI
/.SPX
/.SSEC
38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 19592.90 (21/Dec/16)
295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 264.42 (21/Dec/16)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16)
18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16)
2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)
14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)
222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)
18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)
15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)
2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
85.25 (06/Jul/50)
58.61 (31/Aug/67)
Closing Prices – 27 December 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=
19945.04 2268.88 5487.441 117.43 1206.69
CHANGE
11.23/ 0.06% 5.09 / 0.22% 24.752/ 0.45% 0.36/ 0.31% 6.70 / 0.56%
CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)
19403.06 262.49 HOLIDAY 3115.00390 53.89
CHANGE
6.42/0.03% 0.59/0.23% 61.44/0.28% 7.56510/0.24% 0.87 / 1.64%
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 28 Desember 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 5
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE
WIB
CTY
Mon/26-Dec-16
06:50 11:00
JP JP US AU KR JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP US US US US US US AU JP JP US US US US KR KR KR KR JP HK HK US US US US US US US US US KR KR AU AU HK US US
All Day All Day
Tue/27-Dec-16
04:00 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 12:00 12:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 22:00 22:00 22:30 All Day
Wed/28-Dec-16
Thu/29-Dec-16
Fri/30-Dec-16
Sat/31-Dec-16
06:50 06:50 22:00 22:00 22:30 22:30 04:00 06:00 06:00 06:00 06:50 15:30 15:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 23:00 23:00 23:00 06:00 06:00 07:30 07:30 15:30 21:45 01:00
INDICATORS
PER
BOJ Minutes of Oct. 31-Nov.1 Meeting BOJ Kuroda speaks in Keidanren Bank Holiday/ Christmas (Observed) Bank Holiday/ Christmas Day Consumer Confidence Dec CPI Index Nov Unemployment Rate Nov Job-To-Applicant Ratio Nov All Household Spending YY* Nov All Household Spending MM Nov CPI Core Nationwide YY Nov CPI Overall Nationwide Nov CPI Core Tokyo YY* Dec CPI Overall Tokyo Dec Housing Starts YY Nov Construction Orders YY* Nov CaseShiller 20 MM SA Oct CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Oct CaseShiller 20 MM YY Oct Consumer Confidence Dec Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Dec Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Dec Boxing Day/Proclamation Day Industrial Production Prelim Nov Retail Sales YY Nov Pending Home Index Nov Pending Sales Change MM Nov Texas Serv Sect Outlook* Dec Dallas Fed Sevices Reve Dec BOK Manufacturing BSI Jan Industrial Production Growth Nov Industrial Production YY Nov Service Sector Output Growth Nov BOJ Summary of Opinions at Dec.19-20 Meeting Exports* Nov Imports* Nov Adv Goods Trade Balance Nov Adv Retail Invty Ex Auto Nov Adv Wholesale Invty Nov Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e Continuing Jobless Claims w/e EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e CPI Growth* Dec CPI Growth YY Dec Private Sector Credit* Nov Housing Credit* Nov Money Supply M3* Nov Chicago Purchasing Manager Dec Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Dec-30
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREV.
94.2 100.4 3.1% 1.41 -1.5% -0.6% -0.4% 0.5% -0.6% 0% 6.7% -6.0% 0.6% 0.1% 5.1% 113.7 8 15.5
N/A N/A 3.0% 1.41 0.2% 0.4% -0.3% N/A -0.4% N/A 10.2% N/A 0.5% N/A 5.1% 108.5 5 N/A
96 100.4 3.0% 1.40 -0.4% -1.0% -0.4% 0.1% -0.4% 0.5% 13.7% 15.2% 0.4% 0.1% 5.1% 107.1 4 10.20
1.6% 0.8% N/A 0.5% N/A N/A N/A 1.0% 1.4% N/A
0.0% -0.1% 110.0 0.1% 12.6 13.7 72 -1.7% -1.6% -0.2%
-1.0% 1.5% -61.50b N/A 0.1 264k N/A 2.030m N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.5% N/A N/A 57.0 N/A
-1.8% 0.5% -61.99b -0.3 -0.4 275k 263.75k 2.036m 2.256m -2.420m -1.309m -0.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.6% 8.10% 57.6 N/A
REV.
13.1% 0.5% 5.0% 109.4
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 28 Desember 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 5
SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Area 19400 masih diuji Short-term resistance di sekitar 19445 Short-term support di sekitar 19235 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
27 Dec SSIpmH7 27 Dec SSIamH7 26 Dec SSIpmH7 26 Dec SSIamH7 23 Dec SSIpmH7 23 Dec SSIamH7 22 Dec SSIpmH7 22 Dec SSIamH7 21 Dec SSIpmH7 21 Dec SSIamH7
19350 19370
19435 19445 H H 19420 19445 19400 19415 19475 19560
19350 19320 O O 19360 19345 19325 19280 19335 19335
85 125 L L 60 100 75 135 140 225
19400 19345 I I 19400 19385 19375 19350 19425 19425
--19345 D D --19380 --19350 --19425
55 50 A A 20 35 25 75 UNCH 50
0.28 0.26 Y Y 0.10 0.18 0.13 0.39 UNCH 0.26
6583 27112
19385 19425 19360 19415 19415 19535
WEEKLY
DECEMBER
NOVEMBER
3339 4312 8518 38307 13066 44295
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
19445 (27/Dec)
19320 (27/Dec)
19615 (20/Dec)
18225 (05/Dec)
18660 (30/Nov)
16095 (09/Nov)
19615 (20/Dec)
14770 (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
19980
High 04/Dec/2015
19890
High 18/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)
19615
Reaction high (1-H chart)
19560
Reaction high (1-H chart)
19235
Pivot line (1-H chart)
19120
Reaction low (1-H chart)
19015
Reaction low (1-H chart)
18930
Reaction low (1-H chart)
BUY
19335
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
19225
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
19475 19580
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 28 Desember 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 5
KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017
Area support di sekitar 259.00 – 258.45 berpeluang diuji Short-term support di 257.70 – 256.65 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
27 Dec 26 Dec 23 Dec 22 Dec 21 Dec 20 Dec
258.90
259.50 H 259.10 259.65 260.95 259.90
258.85 O 258.45 258.80 259.15 258.95
0.65 L 0.65 0.85 1.80 0.95
259.50 I 258.60 259.10 259.20 259.35
259.50 D 258.60 259.10 259.20 259.35
0.60 A 0.50 0.10 0.15 0.35
0.23 Y 0.19 0.04 0.06 0.14
258.80 259.40 260.15 259.15
WEEKLY
DECEMBER
NOVEMBER
VOLUME 33823 51643 59357 87626 67631
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
259.50 (27/Dec)
258.85 (27/Dec)
260.95 (21/Dec)
251.45 (05/Dec)
257.45 (09/Nov)
246.80 (09/Nov)
262.50 (08/Sep)
223.10 (20/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
264.15
High 27/May/2015
262.40
High 29/May/2015 (Reaction high)
262.10
High 07/Sep/2016
260.95
Double Top
258.45
Reaction low (1-H chart)
256.50
Low 15/Dec/2016
255.25
Reaction low (1-H chart)
253.50
Pivot line (1-H chart)
BUY
259.00
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
258.00
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
260.80 261.70
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 28 Desember 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 5 of 5
HSIZ6 (Hang Seng Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 December 2016
Koreksi berlanjut dalam area bearish channel Area resistance di sekitar 21650 masih efektif Koreksi hadapi area support di sekitar 21200 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE 27 Dec 26 Dec 23 Dec 22 Dec 21 Dec 20 Dec 19 Dec
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
21555 21738 21744 21789 21950
H H 21594 21819 21927 21875 22007
O O 21477 21591 21731 21662 21781
L L 117 228 196 213 226
I I 21538 21615 21839 21704 21856
D D 21538 21615 21838 21704 21856
A A 77 224 135 152 95
Y Y 0.36 1.03 0.62 0.70 0.43
WEEKLY
DECEMBER
NOVEMBER
VOLUME
128271 105514 92384 93032 88162
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
22007 (19/Dec)
21477 (23/Dec)
23146 (08/Dec)
21477 (23/Dec)
23286 (01/Nov)
21904 (09/Nov)
24374 (09/Sep)
18217 (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
22007
Reaction high (4-H chart)
21927
Reaction high (4-H chart)
21819
Reaction high (4-H chart)
21650
Pivot line (4-H chart)
21259
Reaction low (4-H chart)
21195
Pivot line
20830
Low 12/Jul/2016
20517
Low 11/Jul/2016
BUY
----
SELL
21580
STOP LOSS
21680
TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
21430 21280
