ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Senin-Selasa 02-03 Januari 2017

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 6

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK PENGUMUMAN Berkenaan dengan libur Tahun Baru (01-02 Januari 2017), maka untuk Daily Bulletin STOCK INDEX (Indonesia) saat ini berlaku untuk 2 hari (02-03 Januari 2017).  Asia: Saham Asia catat kenaikan tahunan pertamanya dalam 3 tahun, sementara dolar membalik kerugian awal dan minyak membukukan kenaikan terbesar dalam 7 tahun. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,5% pada hari Jumat, kontras dengan gerak Wall Street malam sebelumnya. Dalam setahun yang ditandai dengan guncangan politik besar, termasuk Brexit pada bulan Juni dan terpilihnya Donald Trump diluar dugaan sebagai presiden AS pada bulan November, saham Asia Pacific ex-Jepang catat keuntungan 3,8%. Indeks CSI 300 Cina bertambah sekitar 0,4% dalam sesi pertama kenaikannya di pekan kemarin. Namun indeks daratan membukukan kinerja terburuk di Asia Pasifik dengan penurunan sekitar 12%. Hang Seng naik 1%, reli 1 hari terbesarnya dalam 5-1/2 minggu, membantu indeks meraih keuntungan 0,6% di tahun 2016. Thailand menjadi pasar berkinerja terbaik setelah menguat hampir 20%, diikuti oleh Indonesia dengan 16%. Bersamaan dengan Cina, Malaysia turun 3,4% dan Filipina turun 1,5%. Sedangkan Nikkei Jepang terkoreksi 0,2% di hari Jumat dan menutup 2016 dengan hanya naik 0,4%.  Eropa: Bursa Eropa catat kerugian tipis untuk 2016, meskipun keuntungan yang kuat di antara saham-saham pertambangan dan sektor minyak dan gas serta perputaran di bank-bank di bagian akhir tahun memberikan dukungan, sementara indeks FTSE 100 Inggris mendaki ke rekor tertingginya. Indeks STOXX 600 Eropa ditutup naik hanya 0,3%, meskipun hampir seluruh indeks utama regional menguat. Naiknya saham pertambangan telah membantu indeks FTSE 100 Inggris menguat 14,4% di tahun 2016, menjadikannya sebagai yang berkinerja terbaik diantara indeks saham Eropa meskipun ada kejutan dari hasil voting Brexit di bulan Juni.  AS & Global Markets: Dolar, minyak dan saham AS terkoreksi pada hari Jumat dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis dan yang terakhir di tahun 2016, namun berhasil ditutup menguat tahun ini. Dolar catat kenaikan tahunan keempatnya secara berturut-turut terhadap sejumlah rival utamanya, sementara minyak bukukan kenaikan tahunan terbesarnya sejak 2009. Dolar telah reli sejak terpilihnya Donald Trump sebagai presiden AS menyusul rencananya untuk mendorong stimulus fiskal. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga The Fed yang akan berlanjut di tahun 2017 juga turut dukung greenback. Emas juga catat penguatan besarnya di tahun 2016, naik 8,5%, sekaligus mengakhiri koreksinya selama 3 tahun terakhir.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 19592.90 (21/Dec/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 264.42 (21/Dec/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 30 December 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

19762.60 2238.83 5383.117 116.87 1206.25

CHANGE     

57.18/ 0.29% 10.43 / 0.46% 48.971/ 0.90% 0.34/ 0.29% 0.86 / 0.07%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

19114.37 HOLIDAY 22000.56 3103.40370 53.89

CHANGE     

30.77/0.16% 0.31/0.12% 209.65/0.96% 7.30690/0.24% 0.12 / 0.22%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

Mon/26-Dec-16

06:50 11:00

JP JP US AU KR JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP JP US US US US US US AU JP JP US US US US KR KR KR KR JP HK HK US US US US US US US US US KR KR AU AU HK US US

All Day All Day

Tue/27-Dec-16

04:00 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 12:00 12:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 22:00 22:00 22:30 All Day

Wed/28-Dec-16

Thu/29-Dec-16

Fri/30-Dec-16

Sat/31-Dec-16

06:50 06:50 22:00 22:00 22:30 22:30 04:00 06:00 06:00 06:00 06:50 15:30 15:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 23:00 23:00 23:00 06:00 06:00 07:30 07:30 15:30 21:45 01:00

INDICATORS

PER

BOJ Minutes of Oct. 31-Nov.1 Meeting BOJ Kuroda speaks in Keidanren Bank Holiday/ Christmas (Observed) Bank Holiday/ Christmas Day Consumer Confidence Dec CPI Index Nov Unemployment Rate Nov Job-To-Applicant Ratio Nov All Household Spending YY* Nov All Household Spending MM Nov CPI Core Nationwide YY Nov CPI Overall Nationwide Nov CPI Core Tokyo YY* Dec CPI Overall Tokyo Dec Housing Starts YY Nov Construction Orders YY* Nov CaseShiller 20 MM SA Oct CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Oct CaseShiller 20 MM YY Oct Consumer Confidence Dec Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Dec Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Dec Boxing Day/Proclamation Day Industrial Production Prelim Nov Retail Sales YY Nov Pending Home Index Nov Pending Sales Change MM Nov Texas Serv Sect Outlook* Dec Dallas Fed Sevices Reve Dec BOK Manufacturing BSI Jan Industrial Production Growth Nov Industrial Production YY Nov Service Sector Output Growth Nov BOJ Summary of Opinions at Dec.19-20 Meeting Exports* Nov Imports* Nov Adv Goods Trade Balance Nov Adv Retail Invty Ex Auto Nov Adv Wholesale Invty Nov Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e Continuing Jobless Claims w/e EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e CPI Growth* Dec CPI Growth YY Dec Private Sector Credit* Nov Housing Credit* Nov Money Supply M3* Nov Chicago Purchasing Manager Dec Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Dec-30

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREV.

94.2 100.4 3.1% 1.41 -1.5% -0.6% -0.4% 0.5% -0.6% 0% 6.7% -6.0% 0.6% 0.1% 5.1% 113.7 8 15.5

N/A N/A 3.0% 1.41 0.2% 0.4% -0.3% N/A -0.4% N/A 10.2% N/A 0.5% N/A 5.1% 108.5 5 N/A

96 100.4 3.0% 1.40 -0.4% -1.0% -0.4% 0.1% -0.4% 0.5% 13.7% 15.2% 0.4% 0.1% 5.1% 107.1 4 10.20

1.5% 1.7% 107.3 -2.5% 19.4 20.6 73 3.4% 4.8% 0.1%

1.6% 0.8% N/A 0.5% N/A N/A N/A 1.0% 2.2% N/A

0.0% -0.1% 110.0 0.1% 12.6 13.7 72 -1.7% -1.6% -0.2%

8.1% 7.6% -65.30b 0.5 0.9 265k 263k 2.102m 0.614m -1.881m -1.593m 0.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 8.7% 54.6

-1.0% 1.5% -61.50b N/A 0.1 264k N/A 2.030m -2.060m 1.780m 1.320m 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% N/A N/A 57.0 N/A

-1.8% 0.5% -61.99b -0.3 -0.4 275k 263.75k 2.036m 2.256m -2.420m -1.309m -0.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.6% 8.10% 57.6 N/A

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

REV.

13.1% 0.5% 5.0% 109.4

-1.3% -1.3% -0.3%

-0.2 -0.1

2.039m



DATE

WIB

CTY

Mon/02-Jan-2017

07:00 07:00 07:00 08:00 08:00 All Day All Day 07:30 14:00 15:30 21:45 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 04:00 06:00 08:45 20:15 21:45 21:45

KR KR KR CN CN US JP KR KR HK US US US US US US KR KR CN US US US

Export Growth Prelim* Import Growth Prelim* Trade Balance Prelim NBS Non-Mfg PMI* NBS Manufacturing PMI Bank Holiday/New Year’s Day (Observed) Bank Holiday/New Year’s Day/Exchange Holiday Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Bank of Korea Policy Meeting Minutes Retail Sales YY Markit Manufacturing PMI Final ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Mfg Prices Paid ISM Manuf New Orders Idx ISM Manuf Employment Idx Construction Spending MM Foreign Reserves Current Account Balance Caixin Mfg PMI Final ADP National Employment ISM-New York Index ISM NY Biz Conditions

02:00 15:30 19:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 21:45 21:45 22:00 23:00 23:00 23:00

US HK US US US US US US US US US US

U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from Dec. 13-14 FOMC Meeting Nikkei PMI Dec Challenger Layoffs Dec Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e Continuing Jobless Claims w/e Markit Services PMI Final Dec Markit Composite Final PMI Dec ISM N-Mfg PMI Dec EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e

Fri/06-Jan-2017

06:00 07:30 07:30 07:30 08:45 15:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 23:00

JP AU AU AU CN HK US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US CN

Overtime Pay Trade Balance G&S (A$)* Goods/Services Imports Goods/Services Exports Caixin Services PMI Foreign Reserves International Trade MM $ Non-farm Payrolls Private Payrolls Manufacturing Payrolls Government Payrolls Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings MM Average Weekly Hours All Employees Labor Force Participation Rate U6 Underemployment Rate Factory Orders MM Factory Orders Ex-Trans MM Durable Goods Orders Rev MM Durables Ex-Transportation Rev MM Nondef Cap Ex-Air Rev MM FX Reserves (Monthly)*

Nov Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Nov Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Dec

Sat/07-Jan-2017

01:00

US

Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

Jan 6

Tue/03-Jan-2017

Wed/04-Jan-2017

Thu/05-Jan-2017

INDICATORS

PER

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREV.

Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec

6.4% 6.8% N/A N/A 51.5

2.5% 9.3% 8.20b 54.70 51.7

Dec

N/A

48.0

Nov Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Dec Dec Dec

-3.0% 54.2 53.5 55.5 N/A 52.6 0.5% N/A N/A 50.7 170k N/A N/A

-2.9% 54.2 53.2 54.5 53.0 52.3 0.5% 371.99b 6.01b 50.9 216k 720.5 52.5

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 53.4 N/A 56.8 N/A N/A N/A

49.5 26.936k 265k 263k 2.102m 53.4 53.7 57.2 0.614m -1.881m -1.593m

N/A -550m N/A N/A N/A N/A -42.0b 175k 170k 0k 9k 4.7% 0.3% 34.4h N/A N/A -2.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

-1.4% -1541m 2.0% 1.0% 53.1 385.00b -42.6b 178k 156k -4k 22k 4.6% -0.1% 34.4h 62.7% 9.3% 2.7% 0.8% -4.6% 0.5% 0.9% 3.052t

REV.

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en) RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf



SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017

 Rebound masih terbatas, dengan area krusial di 19000 masih diuji  Short-term support berada di sekitar 18500 – 18200 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

30 Dec SSIpmH7 30 Dec SSIamH7 29 Dec SSIpmH7 29 Dec SSIamH7 28 Dec SSIpmH7 28 Dec SSIamH7 27 Dec SSIpmH7 27 Dec SSIamH7 26 Dec SSIpmH7 26 Dec SSIamH7

19080 19040 19035 19330 19445 19400 19350 19370

19125 19170 19085 19330 19470 19455 19435 19445 H H

19000 18970 18925 19060 19295 19355 19350 19320 O O

125 200 160 270 175 100 85 125 L L

19000 19070 19000 19065 19315 19455 19400 19345 I I

--19070 --19065 --19455 --19345 D D

WEEKLY

DECEMBER

CHANGE        

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.37 0.03 0.34 2.00 0.72 0.57 0.28 0.26 Y Y

9734 41787 23470 51673 9292 28862 6583 27112

70 5 65 390 140 110 55 50 A A

NOVEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

19470 (28/Dec)

18925 (29/Dec)

19615 (20/Dec)

18225 (05/Dec)

18660 (30/Nov)

16095 (09/Nov)

19615 (20/Dec)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

19615

Reaction high (1-H chart)

19560


19475


19170


18925

Reaction low (1-H chart)

18760


18605


18490


BUY

----

SELL

19085

STOP LOSS

19175

TARGET


18900 18800



KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017

 Koreksi masih terbatas dengan area support di 259 masih efektif  Reli hadapi resistance krusial di 260.95 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

30 Dec 29 Dec 28 Dec 27 Dec 26 Dec 23 Dec

259.90 260.05 258.90 258.80

WEEKLY

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

H 260.35 260.75 259.50 H 259.10

O 259.25 259.95 258.85 O 258.45

L 1.10 0.80 0.65 L 0.65

I 260.05 260.40 259.50 I 258.60

D 260.05 260.40 259.50 D 258.60

A  0.35  0.90  0.60 A  0.50

Y 0.13 0.35 0.23 Y 0.19

DECEMBER

NOVEMBER

VOLUME 74134 73974 33823 51643

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

260.75 (28/Dec)

258.85 (27/Dec)

260.95 (21/Dec)

251.45 (05/Dec)

257.45 (09/Nov)

246.80 (09/Nov)

262.50 (08/Sep)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

264.15

High 27/May/2015

262.40

High 29/May/2015 (Reaction high)

262.10

High 07/Sep/2016

260.95

Double Top

258.45


256.50

Low 15/Dec/2016

255.25


253.50

Pivot line (1-H chart)

BUY

259.60

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

258.25

TARGET


261.00 262.00



HSIF7 (Hang Seng Jan Futures) – Exp. Date: 26 January 2017

 Rebound berkembang, uji tembus area 22000, setelah hit day high di 22056  Area support di 21477 masih utuh  Rebound hadapi resistance di 22100 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

30 Dec (HSIF7) 29 Dec (HSIF7) 28 Dec (HSIF7) 28 Dec (HSIZ6) 26-27 Dec 23 Dec 22 Dec

21831 21573 21516 21500

22056 21799 21800 21790 H 21594 21819

21813 21510 21497 21482 O 21477 21591

243 289 303 308 L 117 228

21964 21789 21731 21721 I 21538 21615

21962 21789 21731 21721 D 21538 21615

 175  58  180  183 A  77  224

0.80 0.27 0.84 0.85 Y 0.36 1.03

21555 21738

WEEKLY

DECEMBER

NOVEMBER

VOLUME 74242 78579 72108 102606 128271 105514

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

22056 (30/Dec)

21477 (23/Dec)

23146 (08/Dec)

21477 (23/Dec)

23286 (01/Nov)

21904 (09/Nov)

24374 (09/Sep)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

22648

High 14/Dec/2016 (Reaction high)

22520

High 15/Dec/2016

22136


22100

Pivot line (1-D chart)

21766

Reaction low (15-Minute)

21477

Low 23/Dec/2016 (Reaction low)

21259

Low 14/Jul/2016 (Reaction low)

21195

Pivot line

BUY

21850

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

21750

TARGET


22120 22250

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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